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Beanoil

CBoT beanoil weeklyThe weekly continuation char shows an ascending price channel of which the lower boundary started at around 25.00/26.00 during August/September 2015 and offered support to price during July/August 2016 at around the 30.00 level as well as during the past 2 weeks at around the 32.50 level. Price has been bouncing up from this supportive trend line which we expected it to now again. Quite significant is the fact that last week’s candle is a so-called ‘Double Key Reversal’ which means that price made a lower low than the preceding week but closed higher than the 2 preceding weeks. A ‘Double Key Reversal’ is a very reliable and strong bode that price will make an immediate reversal which, in this case, is to the upside. Unless proven the contrary, there is no reason to doubt that price is on the way up from here with, roughly, the 40.00 level as price target. Price could, however, make a minor pull-back first during the coming week which is shown in the daily chart.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil almost ready for a long play Beanoil: Like the rest of the soy complex, the beanoil price has developed an ascending channel during the past months with higher highs and higher lows. During the past week price developed and ascending wedge towards the higher end of the price channel from where, as per the TA rules of thumb, price broke out to the downside. We expect price to continue its corrective move down from here towards the 36.50/36.00 zone where price is expected to find a solid base for a substantial move up to reach the 40.00 level at around mid January. From there, after a minor corrective move down again, price can then trade further up to the 44.00 level before the start of spring. A break down through the 34.00 level would negate our long term bull scenario.
CBOT:ZLH2017
by Remko
1
Soybean Oil still looking bullishSoybean oil is still looking bullish on both the daily and weekly charts. The 4H chart has its ADX drop to 20 with both +/-DMI below it so some period of price consolidation is expected. However, the last time this type of consolidation happened on 4H chart, there was a big move up on the breakout. With the daily and weekly ADX both looking bullish (ADX above 20 and +DMI on top of -DMI), I'm looking for a similar move. Watching the ADX on 4H along with price to see what type of pattern forms during this phase and looking to go long on breakout to upside. For weekly chart to continue to look positive, I'm thinking that price should move up near end of week.
B
by mxb1961
Soybean Oil price consolidating short termSoybean Oil looks like it is consolidating price short term as the ADX has dropped below 20 on 4H chart. However, the monthly, weekly, and daily charts look bullish. Once price breaks out of the consolidation on 4H chart, I'm looking for it to move higher. The daily and weekly charts have price moving up over the 9/20/50 period EMA with monthly looking like it could follow. Close attention should be paid to the 4H chart to see how ADX behaves and if the +DMI pulls through -DMI if price begins to move up and pull ADX up with it.
BLong
by mxb1961
Soybean Oil providing opportunity to enter up moveThe up move that has begun in Soybean Oil has paused briefly giving an opportunity to get in to upside. Both the weekly and daily chart are bullish while the 4H and 1H look to be completing a corrective move. On the Daily chart, a green bar close above the current red retrace line should signal that the up trend is continuing. On the 4H and 1H chart, a more aggressive position may be taken when the ADX on both turn positive with the +DMI moving above -DMI and up through 20 along with an up move in price. This should coincide with other indicators (slow stoch, TSI and RSI) turning positive.
BLong
by mxb1961
CBoT beanoil no positionBeanoil: Price made a strong 3% move up during the Monday session after which it has been developing a pennant which is a continuation pattern. The pattern seemed to fail during last Friday's session when price made a move to the downside but still closed within the boundaries of the pennant pattern. We expect price to continue going up from here on very short term to reach 3700/3750 after which we expect price to reverse and resume its long term down trend. Not a market to be long and not a market to be short but a perfect market to stay out look at from the sidelines.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT not going anywhere Beanoil: Price made a 3% move up to the week which mostly came through during Friday's session. Price broke the 2 pivotal resistance levels at 33.75 and 34.29 during the week and close above same levels which, principally, will give price the possibility to trade up further and possibly reach the 36/37 level. Having said so, the move of the past week could also very well be a bull trap and we do not feel comfortable either direction right now. The most likely move from here is to the upside but we would not build a long play strategy based on what we see here. It is just not a market to hold any position in either way.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil remains neutral for nowBeanoil: This pice has given us quite a bit of headaches during the past week as it is just not going anywhere very fast. After a 'spinning top' during the week before last week price has now drawn a perfect 'doji' during the past week with an opening price of the first session of the week to be at exact the same level as the closing price of the last session of the week (being 33.31) which is a sign of further indecisiveness of the market. The candle of the week has posted a lower low and lower high which is an indication that price is trying to trade down but nothing much more than just an indication indeed. We still keep a bear scenario as very likely for this price but would not want to base a short trade on what we are seeing in this chart today. We want to kick the can down the street for one more week (and, if needed, more) to see whether the pivotal resistance levels at 33.75 and, especially, at 34.29 will hold and whether the supportive zone at around the 32 value will give way. A break to the upside of 33.75 will nullify a possible bear case scenario and will probably allow price to trade up to the 36.50/37.00 zone before a possible reversal down will occur. We are detached for this one now and simply need more time.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil still neutralBeanoil: We have framed a bear scenario on this price for quite a long time now which was harshly interrupted by the fierce upswing during the first half of August and, to a lesser extend, by the corrective move up during mid September. As long at the most recent high of 34.83 of August 23 remains unbroken we can keep our bear scenario intact but we would like to see a decisive and impulsive move to the downside on short term. The weekly chart (not displayed here) shows a 'spinning top' which is a typical sign that market is indecisive and we can consider the last week as a lost week from TA point of view. We maintain our neutral position for now but with the bear scenario still as most probable reality for the next future. We need one more week.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil sidelinedBeanoil: The impulsive and strong move up during the early stage of last week hit our stops and forced us out of the market place. Looking at it from the sideline we see that the last crucial barrier between current levels and the 36/37 level has not been broken. At the same time, however, we are not convinced that the sideways move and especially Friday's lower low is a bode that price will resume its downtrend from here although the indication is there. We will need one more week to get a clearer picture, same unless an impulsive move either way will tell us more. Until then we are sidelined.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil remains a short playBeanoil: Price started the week with quite an impulsive move to the downside of well over 4% in just 2 sessions but made a relatively strong corrective move back up during especially the Thursday session. Nothing changes in our outlook and we maintain our bear bias. We expect price to continue its downtrend immediately from Monday's opening onward. The crucial resistance levels are 32.97 for the short term and 33.59 for the mid term. But as long as these levels are not broken to the upside we see no reason to reconsider our bias.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil still undecidedBeanoil: Price keeps us in doubt on where to look for the short term. Longer term we remain bearish with a price target at 2600 or lower but our key question for today is where price will move during the coming week. We wanted to see either a decisive break of the 3260/3250 level and a break of the 3220 mark after that or a move to the upside to reach for 36 before reversing back down. It initially looked like it was actually happening during last Thursday's session that price was going to break through to the downside but Friday's strong move up of almost 3% made the picture look quite different again. Still, Friday's candle has a fairly long topping tail which clearly indicates that the bulls ran out of air, at least for that day. We need to kick the can a bit further down the street on this chart to decide whether external markets will put weight on this price and pull it down along or that price will indeed make one swing up first during the coming 1 to 2 weeks. We will come with an update on Wednesday or Thursday.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil stopped out and waitingBeanoil: During the 2nd half of August we were taken a bit by surprise by price's upswing which stopped us out from our bear bias. The picture of today does not really give us a very clear vision on the nearby future. Principally, we should see price resuming to the upside from here and especially now to seek for the 36/37 zone from where price can resume its long term down trend. However, price should then not break the 32.60/32.50 level in which case we will have to turn back to an immediate bear scenario. Bottomline, we are holding our horses for now and await what will unfold during the coming week before taking any side.
CBOT:ZLZ2016
by Remko
CBoT beanoil remains a short playBeanoil: Price has traded up further than our liking and than what we were expecting. The overall picture remains a bear biased scenario for us with a possible further swing up to 33.50 now which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. We expect decline of price but with keeping the Fibonacci resistance level in mine and we expect accelerated volatility of the down move after the support level of 31.65 has been broken. We keep the picture and our chart unchanged for now.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil maintaining short playBeanoil: Price keeps following our preferred route that we have put on the chart about a month ago and there is little to add to that. We have drawn a descending price channel in which price seem to be moving to the downside. Our targets remains unchanged, trails keep being trailed down along with price and traders with a short position enjoy the ride. We will start looking at a possible reconsideration if and when price moves outside its channel on the upside and a break of the 32.50 level to the upside will invalidate our bear case.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT maintaining short playBeanoil: Price made a solid move up during an 'inside day' session. The advance in price was stronger than what we would have liked to see but the overall picture of our bias does not change. We anticipate lower prices but we would like to see the lows of May 23&25 at 31.42 to be broken after which the door will be open to an acceleration to the downside. First target is at 29.00 and second target is at 28.00 after which we will see whether and how far we want to trail the final target down. The stop for now is at 33.72 basis end-of-day. Positions will need to be rolled over soon (preferably this week) and traders need to be alert for slippage.
CBOT:ZLZ2016Short
by Remko
Beanoil CBoT again going shortBeanoil: Price made further advance during the past week and hit our stop. One could argue that our stop was too tight but, as a rule, taking a loss is a very healthy thing to do and the saying that 'the first loss is your best loss' makes a lot of sense if one thinks about it. So does the saying 'if you are not prepared to take a loss you will, sooner than later, be forced to take the mother of all losses' for that matter. The long-term pattern in the chart as such does not change at all and we maintain our bear bias until proven wrong which would be if price breaks 3385 to the upside. During the past weeks price has developed an ascending wedge which is a very reliable bode that the move up is coming to an end. In addition to that we see a 'bearish engulfing' pattern combined with a single key reversal in last Friday's candle. All these key elements combined plus our expectation that the move to the downside will be sizeable makes us entertain a new short play again at either 33.40 during Monday which is at the upper boundary of the ascending wedge or at a close of 32.60 or lower during Monday which would be a break of the lower boundary of same ascending wedge. Initial stop will be put at 34.15 which is more for reason of money management than anything else.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko
CBoT beanoil still shortBeanoil: Price traded further into its resistance area of the 3200 level and actually traded higher than what we would have liked to see. For twice in a row (Thursday and Friday) price traded into our pre-set stop-loss zone but still closed below same stop levels and we are still in position. Even though the resistance zone is tested more severe than we initially anticipated the overall pattern does not change and we keep our bear bias until we are proven wrong by the market. Our reconsideration point is still at the 3385 mark and the stop is still at 3260 but that is more for money management reason than anything else. The last two sessions hunted the price up but momentum went lost and the chart shows two candles with long topping tales which is a sign that the bulls ran out of air. We are still on the edge and we will start feeling more comfortable with our bear bias after we see price trading decisively to the 3120 zone which we would like to see happening during the coming week. After that we will trail our stop to entry level and will start looking for a target.
CBOT:ZLN2016Short
by Remko