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BITCOIN Pitchfork and Historic Fibs target + $300kThis is not the first time I use the Pitchfork tool on Bitcoin and certainly it won't be the last as despite not being a popular indicator among traders, it has proven to me how effective it can be, even on the long-term at projecting Bitcoin trends. Last time I published such an analysis was on May 21: See how accurately the price has been trading within the 0.236 levels with the median as the pivot ever since the May sell-off. ** Application of the Pitchfork ** On today's analysis, I am applying the Pitchfork even wider on the 1W time-frame. Starting from the November 2011 bottom and using the December 2013 as the High and the January 2015 as the Low, we see that BTC has been trading almost entirely within its levels, with just two break-outs in August 17 2015 and December 04 2017. That is why I've added the 1.5 (dotted black) line, which contained the price during those break-outs and the 2.0 (blue) line as future reference. ** The Buy Zones, the Channel Up and the 1W MA50 ** As the chart shows, the lower 1.0 - 0.5 lines provided in 2015 - 2016 the Buy Zone (exception being as mentioned the August 17 2015 candle) and during 2019 - 2020 that role was taken by the lower 0.5 - median lines (exception being the March 2020 COVID crash candle). This ascending pattern of the Buy Zones is attributed to the fact that since the December 2013 Cycle Top, Bitcoin has been trading within a Channel Up (blue pattern) and that's why the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been moving the Buy Zone in each Cycle higher and higher. ** The +.382 Fib progression ** Those who follow me on TradingView and Reddit before, know that the 0.382 Fib progression is a concept I've introduced years ago. That includes that, starting from the June 06 2011 and the November 14 2011 1W candles as High and Bottom respectively, every BTCUSD Cycle Peak that followed was on a 0.382 progression: the December 2013 was just below the 2.382 Fibonacci extension while the December 2017 on the 3.382 Fibonacci extension. Naturally, if this pattern continues to replicate this progression, the next Cycle Top should be near the 4.382 Fib extension, which is around $375k. A level a little below that number, combined by the introduction of the Pitchfork and its 1.5 'extreme' level, would be around $300000. So it wouldn't surprise me to see that as a Cycle peak within 2022. What do you think about the above? Should we expect 300k based on this Pitchfork and Fibonacci combo? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
25
BITCOIN is still far from a Cycle Peak according to the 2Y MA.A lot of talk is being made lately about whether Bitcoin has made its peak and is entering a new Bea Cycle or not. In a previous long-term article, I've introduced the concept of how BTC behaves when new ATH is made without previously hitting the former Cycle Peak. On today's publication I plot alongside those 'Triangles' idea the 2Y MA Multiplier indicator in order to more efficiently illustrate why having a Cycle Peak already is not likely. As you see on the chart, the time-frame is the 1W (weekly) but the MA periods shown vary. Starting with the bold, the green line represents the 2Y MA while the red one displays the 2Y MA Multiplier X5. The orange line is the MA200 on the 1D time-frame while the blue is the MA20 on the 1M time-frame. As you realize, the 1M MA20 follows the 2Y MA quite closely. Historically, every dip below the 2Y MA has been a buy opportunity and the good news is that this has risen significantly to the 28650 level currently. The 2Y MA50, which is the focal point of this analysis typically raises a flag of a Cycle Peak formation when it breaks. In February 2021, the price got rejected just below that level, which historically indicates that the current Cycle hasn't peaked yet. At the same time, the 1D MA200 and the 1M MA20 have started to converge. Every time that happened, BTCUSD started an aggressive rally shortly after. It is very probable that we are on the last consolidation phase (blue Triangle) before the last parabolic rally of the Cycle (which I've illustrated on numerous ideas before) that will eventually break above the 2Y MA x5 Multiplier and form the Cycle Peak. Do you agree with this? Are you waiting for the 2Y MA x5 before starting to call for a top and sell? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
38
Bitcoin fresh reversalHello Everyone, Finally, BTC has made a move. Bitcoin has broken the falling wedge. This is a bullish sign with a target of the pattern 52k minimum. To make it simple, we have finally broken the bearish structures of the lower high, and we are now forming the first higher high after a month of bearishness. This is positive. However, the perfect sign will be for bitcoin to form a higher low in the short term creating a bullish uptrend structure. Considering the wedge, when the price breaks a pattern, it is usually the start of the first wave of a minor degree which will start the new impulsive wave. Hence I have highlighted my expectations with BTC reaching 60k before falling again back to 52k, forming a higher low of intermediate degree. Now, I plan to catch the move with the first retracement at 47800, laddering in the alts I was left behind. This also always comes with risk so I will set a stop loss. As I won't be entering with leverage, I will live the Stop loss a bit lose looking at around 45k. If that level is lost and this push comes short, it is a clear indication that the bears are in control. Please have a great Xmas everyone, looks like CryptoSanta is about to bring us some nice presents. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
Long
by CFcryptoTA
13
BITCOIN The 2020 COVID fractal says we've bottomedIt's been prove that more often than not, fractals on Bitcoin work and consist a great deal of the analyses I publish here for TradingView's audience. Past/ historic behavior is a great way at making future projections and within these lines, I've prepared today's analysis too, by comparing this year's sell-off due to Musk/ China's ban and subsequent recovery to the 2020 COVID sell-off (and subsequent recovery). I won't be getting into too much detail, but as you see by the markings and explanations I've plotted on the chart (1D time-frame), the two fractals are extremely similar: a) The basic structure consists of a Lower Highs (red arrows) and a Higher Lows (green arrows) trend-line, which provide initially Resistance and then Support levels respectively. b) When the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the MA100 (green trend-line), BTC is around a Bottom. Similarly, when the MA50 crosses above the MA100, BTC is around a Top. The last MA50 crossing above the MA100 marked a rally (step 7) in mid October 2020. c) The RSI bottoming sequences are also identical, marking a bottom on the last Lower Low of the trend-line (second green arrows), which is basically where we're at right now. So based on this fractal do you expect BTCUSD to make a bottom soon and will the next 1D MA50 crossing above the 1D MA100 initiate a new parabolic rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
34
BTCUSD could rise if it breach above 50K levelHello traders, let's discuss a few technical details that we are currently observing in the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin is making classic patterns and to me it is printing HHs and HLs. Recently we saw a strong rejection from the 42K level and now Bitcoin is consolidating around 47k. My yellow line is the 200MA. If we can be able to close above this line and above 50k we could see some significant developments to the upside. I predict Bitcoin to continue it's rise in 2022, hopefully setting a new record high. Do you have any different thoughts on this? Please be kind to share in the comment section below. Please do not forget to show your support with likes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Forexintelligence_NA
BTC updateHello everyone, As the weekend approaches, things should start to quiet down. Historically weekends are low in volume with fewer participants in the market. I am sure most of you know by now that BTC is trading in a range forming a flat triangle. Yesterday we had a clear liquidity hunting event with big players liquidating small participants on support to create liquidity to fill their orders. These are usually positive events that suggest demand from institutions and big funds at this level. In trading ranges, the middle zone is a no-trade zone. Instead, if you are a trend trader, you will enter when BTC breaks the 50k level or 46k. However, traders usually buy on support and short on resistance. BTC has already painted two fake-outs, suggesting that bears have a hard time pushing prices below and demands are meeting the supply. As supply will dry up, it will be much easier for bulls to move prices up. In the very short term, I see BTC possibly retest the 45500 one more time to start than making its way up to retest the 50 levels. I am personally leaning towards a bullish bias. This is not just due to the different indicators which are oversold but also from the September Fractal explained in the previous video and from the Elliott Wave analysis, which suggests we completed a 5 wave down (Wave C), so we should have a reaction at least to 55k. Nevertheless, if we pause and look at the macro picture, we can conclude that the primary and intermediate trend is still bullish, with the 50wMA and the 200dMA providing support. Also, there is a strong confluence of long term and medium term VWAP providing support in the 46 areas. This means that Bitcoin is currently at its fair mean price, which usually provides a good bullish bias considering the Risk/Reward ratio. My suggestion is always to wait for an open and close confirmation, ideally of a daily candle over the res or supp. I hope this helps you have a clear picture of BTC and play your odds better. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
Long
by CFcryptoTA
2
BITCOIN getting ready for a MONTHLY PARABOLIC RALLY as in 2013!I've compared Bitcoin's current cycle to that of 2011 - 2013 more than a dozen times but it never fails to deliver. The May sharp correction gave more validity to such comparisons as that sell-off and subsequence accumulation phase drew many similarities to that of April - August 2013. Now, even though the current Cycle is longer as not only 2011 - 2013 was the first full BTC Cycle, but also the Lengthening Cycles Theory (LCT) suggests that each Cycle lasts longer with diminishing returns. This time I've added some more elements to the last time I compared the two: * First of all I've plotted all the basic Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, in order to identify key pressure points and similarities between the two cycles. As you see during the initial rise of the Bull Cycle, both took a first stop and rejection on the 0.786 Fib and the true 1st Phase of the Parabolic Rally started after the 0.618 Fib held. Then in the mid-phase, BTCUSD took a second stop and rejection around the 1.618 Fib and bottomed and recovered on the 1.236 Fib. We are currently around the 1.5 Fib (as displayed by the blue circle), which in September 2013 was where the price consolidated, held and started the 2nd (and final) Phase of the Parabolic Rally. The Cycle's top took place within the 2.382 and 2.236 Fibonacci extension levels. * Secondly, I've added the always useful Ichimoku Cloud. As seen, the first red area on both Cycles was when the first stop on the 0.786 Fib took place and the green that followed after the 0.618 (notable exception is the period of the COVID market melt-down which distorted the charts). The Ichimoku turned sideways around the 1.5 Fib, which is where we are at right now. * Last but not least, I've inserted the element of Top to Bottom on an Angle with a trend-line (dotted line on the chart) that starts from the Bottom of the Bear Cycle and ends at the Top of the Bull Cycle. In 2011 - 2013 that line was on roughly on a 60° angle and touched exactly (excluding the big wick on that April 08 2013 1W candle) the 1.618 Fib top of the final accumulation phase. If we do the same projection on the current (2018 - 2022) Cycle, then remarkably the very same 60° angle trend-line also makes direct contact with the 1.618 Fib and lands on the 2.382 Top at the start of April 2022. From all the above we can come to a conclusion that the Bull Run is very much alive and ongoing. The current spot we are in places us right before a strong (the 2nd) monthly Parabolic Rally which aims within the 2.236 (roughly $193k) and 2.382 (roughly $250k) Fibonacci levels. Now, as for the April 2022 projection, it is very hard to estimate the timing especially if the Lengthening Cycles Theory holds. But still, it is something we can keep in mind. So what's your take on today's analysis? Does this help at clearing things up and are you expecting a strong rally early in 2022 or history will be different this time? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
26
BITCOIN This remarkable fractal symmetry indicates it's bottomedAfter my most recent BTC analysis compared fractals on the wide long-term 1W time-frame, since the price is currently consolidating on such a tight range, I decided it would be productive if I looked for fractal comparisons on the narrower short-term time-frames, on 4H in particular. The key observation made was between the current pattern of December and that of late September - early October. As you see it is interesting to say the least, that the structures of the two formations have been (so far) virtually identical. Both are major consolidation / accumulation phases (Rectangle pattern), starting with a Lower Highs trend-line (steps 1 & 2) above the 4H MA20 (red trend-line) and continuing with a rejection on that MA20 (step 3). So far this is were we are on the current December structure. On September 30, that was followed by the third break above the 4H MA20, which presented the 1st Bullish Signal, then moved to a break above the Lower Highs trend-line (step 4) and extended quickly to a break above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) which gave the 2nd Bullish Signal and marked the start of the complete recovery for Bitcoin (step 5). The structure was then completed by a break into the Resistance Zone and a short consolidation towards the 4H MA20 that really boosted the October rally. How do you perceive this structure? If we are currently on step (3) we should be really looking for that third and final break above the 4H MA20 and the Lower Highs trend-line (step 4) that will basically confirm the recovery. See also how even the RSI structures are identical, with the RSI's consolidation basically starting on step (1). What is your opinion on that? Will this fractal be repeating in the exact same order? Have we bottomed in your opinion? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
56
Bitcoin Daily FractalHello Everyone, I wanted to share this idea with you as I think it is an excellent food for the brain and to dwell on. I am not saying that it will play the same as in September, but we can deny that the similarities are staggering. -RSI sam level -Stoch RSI same level -The support found on 2 VWAP from High and Low from long and intermediate trend -Resistance found from VWAP set from short term rally low -Same price action -Strong resistance set by trendline It will be interesting to see how this will play out. However, I won't hesitate to enter and add when BTC will break above the short term trend VWAP (black). BTC is on a thin line, and there is a lot of squeeze building up. In the sense that there is a lot of liquidation power building up. Many stop losses orders close to each other. Similar to the last drop at 56k. High volatility is around the corner, and it can go either way. It s better to wait for the market to show you the direction rather than guess. Then we all have opinions and biases. Like mine, the FOMC has already been priced in the price action of last week and a half, so right now, retail traders are the ones selling, so I expect a buy the rumours sell the news type of action (reverse). However, the markets decide, so let s wait for it. Will BTC break up or down? My vote is up (To clarify, I am not entering now, wait for confirmation either way) FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
by CFcryptoTA
4
Bitcoin Update 13/12/21: Long Opportunity After the crash on the 3rd December Bitcoin has retested the 200sma just below the 50% fibs, since then BTC has failed to break above the 61.80% fibs @ $53,253. For the past 10 Days since the crash BTC has been consolidating in the whale accumulation zone...we have now broke below this zone and if we fail to break above the 50% fibs we could see BTC fall to the 38.20% fibs @ $43,597 which is a 6% drop from the current price which would leave BTC 57% away from the ATH. Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) Bitcoin Update 07/12/21: From the last push phase in late September, we saw Bitcoin gain 68% in just under 42 days from $40,994 on the 29th September to $69,044 on the 10th November. Our A.I script caught this huge move with a strong Buy signal triggered on the Daily Chart (4th October) catching 47% of this move to the new ATH . This was an explosive move for Bitcoin which was met with some heavy resistance, failing to break above $65k on the 20th and 21st October which resulted in a small sell off with BTC dropping 13% from the 21st October to the 28th before starting the next wave of the rally to a New ATH set on the 10th November. Bitcoin rallied another 20% from the 28/10/21 to 10/11/21. Since setting a new ATH BTC started a slow retracement with BTC unable to maintain the $65K as an area of strong level of support. Our A.I script triggered a strong Sell signal on the 20th November, only 10 days after hitting a new ATH . From the Sell Signal BTC retraced 30%, bottoming with a huge wick rejection at the Golden Ration, which saw Bitcoin retracing just over 61.80% from the ATH price (Huge opportunity of you caught the bottom). The Bull Run is still on! From the current price we expect a small consolidation period as we currently face some heavy resistance at this previous key level faced back in August and September. After a much needed retest of the 200SMA, Bitcoin is showing strong price rejection since the 4/12/21. From the 4th December crash, Bitcoin has recovered 20% already showing strong signs we are still in a bullish market. As mentioned above this is a key price level for Bitcoin and we can expect some consolidation before retesting the $60k price level @ the 78.60% fibs (currently 19% gain away from the price level). From the 78.60% fibs we expect a small pullback before retesting the ATH at $69,044 (Currently 36% gain away). From the ATH our next price target is at the 127.20% fibs @ $80,173. From the current price Bitcoin is 86% gain away from the 161.80% price target @ $94,330 which we now can expect 2022 Q1/Q2. Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) Bitcoin Update 13/10/21: BTC Golden Cross Road to $74k (18/09/21). BTC is showing strong support around 53k-55k, from here we expect a clear breakout above the 78.60% fibs and a retest of the ATH🎯@$64k! Currently BTC is only 12% away from the previous ATH . BTC is now back above 55k for the 2nd time now in 5 months. Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) Bitcoin Update 03/10/21: Since the 30th September, Bitcoin has grown 18%+ over the past 3 days. From the current price level Bitcoin is 33% away from the ATH . Scenario 1 didn't quite play out for BTC as we mentioned earlier during the start of the month (September). From here we can expect the Scenario 2 Push Phase to play out. A clear break from here with the 13 EMA crossing up above the 50 SMA will be further confirmation of this continued bullish momentum pushing above Key Resistance at $46k. September is historically a red month, and this year we saw this across the board from stocks to cryptocurrencies. The BTC Golden Cross experienced on the 16/09/21 signals very bullish momentum. From a technical perspective Bitcoin is in a Bullish market, further to this we have the Golden Cross for BTC which occurred on the 16th September on the Daily Chart (Historically every time we see this movement on the moving averages, we have experienced significant growth in BTC ). The Golden Cross signals very strong bullish momentum which could see Bitcoin back at the ATH price level after a clear breakout above the 61.80% Fibonacci which is a significant level for whale action as we see accumulation around this key price level range between $47k-$52k. From the current price level @ $48k, BTC is 54% away from the ATH price. We expect some explosive movement incoming in the next 2-3 months as we head towards eoy. Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) 🎯 Bitcoin Update 05 /09/21: Bitcoin has been in a steady accumulation range between $46k-$51k for the past 23 days. From this key level we can expect continued bullish momentum towards the upside to the next key level of resistance at $57k. Currently Bitcoin is 25% from its ATH price @ $64k. If we can have a clear break of this resistance and hold above $51k flipping it into support we can expect a bullish run towards the $57k resistance, this move might be met with some heavy resistance above this key level as $58k-$60k is a key psychological barrier for Bitcoin . The next few months are critical for BTC as bullish momentum could see the 127.20 fib target at $74k. Please see previous analysis below :) Happy Trading! $50K incoming again for the weekend 🚀, if we can break resistance and hold above $51k flipping it into support we can expect a bullish run towards $57k resistance. The next few months are critical for BTC as bullish momentum could see the 127.20 fib target at $74k. Please see previous analysis below :) Happy Trading! Bitcoin Update 21/08/21: Road to $74k is clear, but first Bitcoin has to break above $51,068 and flip this into support for the next leg up to the 78.60% Fibonacci level at $57,125. If Bitcoin can flip the 61.80% fibonacci level into support we could see bitcoin approaching the $60K region looking to push for a new ATH . The 61.80% fibonacci level is a key resistance level and a level where we previously saw large amount of whale accumulation in the previous run before the May crash. In another possible scenario we could see Bitcoin retracing and consolidating in the short term but when we look on the lower time frame 4H, the swing call script has just triggered a strong buy signal showing continued bullish momentum for Bitcoin . It is official the Bitcoin Bulls are back!! Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) Bitcoin Update 14/08/21: Update: Currently 4% Gain from this Short-term Swing Opportunity, stops just below $43,812, TP @ $51,068 at the 61.80% Fibs, additional TP at the 78.60% @ $57,125 (19% Gain from current price level). Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) The Bitcoin Bulls are Back! After setting a new ATH @ $64,841 in April, Bitcoin experienced its the first major sell (some may say manipulated) off in this Bull Run Cycle (-50% from the top). We have been closely watching the BTC chart for a strong trend reversal signal. From the ATH @ $64,841, Bitcoin formed a triple bottom in the $28-30k region, the last bottom experienced on the 21st July is confirmed as our bottom here. The Swing Call Script gave further confirmation of the strong trend reversal as a Buy signal was triggered on the 4H Chart on the 22 July and further on the 6th August showing strong signs of bullish momentum back into the market. From here we expect BTC to retest the current ATH @ $64k which is a 40% Gain from the current price @ $45k. Further to this, we can expect some heavy resistance between the 61.80% - 78.60% fibonacci level. A clear break past the 78.60% fibonacci level see BTC setting a new ATH at the 127.20% fibonacci level. Please see previous analysis below. Happy Trading :) BTC finally testing the 200 SMA and is showing strong signs of bullish momentum as we see the BTC Bulls coming back into the market 🚀. After 4 failed attempts of trying to break above the key resistance @ $38,595 BTC has finally broken above this key price level. Since the crash BTC found its Bottom tanking down -51% on the 19th May to $28,787 from $57,777 and had previous retraced from the ATH price @ $64,841 to $46,814 (-27%). BTC has been in a whale accumulation zone for the past 27 days from 19th May to 15th June. Our Swing Call Script triggered a strong buy signal for #BTC LONG when the 13 EMA crossed up above the 50 SMA on the 10th June; BTC has since increased over 10% in just over 5 days. From the current price level we have longs positioned and the current TP 1 is at the 127.20% Fibonacci level @ $74,647 (85% gain from current price level) and TP 2 at the 161.80% Fibonacci level @ $87,122 (116% from current price level). Note the price targets are for long term swings, we may be in this accumulation phase a little longer. Happy Trading :). See previous analysis below. Bitcoin Update 02/04/21 Next Target @ $66,953 13% Gain New ATH in April I've loved charting BTC last Month, analysis has been quite spot on just waiting on our new ATH now @$66,953 13% Gain from current price level. #Bitcoin has found key support around $58k price level. It looks like the Bitcoin Bulls are back in the market. Worst case scenario from here in the short-term could see the price test the 50SMA, and breaking below this level would see another test of the 200SMA before the anticipated move to the upside and our target of $66.953 at the 127.20% Fibonacci level. See previous analysis below. Happy trading :) Update 29/03/21 Bitcoin next Target @ $66,953 21% Gain Nice bounce from the whale accumulation zone at the 78.60% Fibonacci Level. Looks like the BTC Bulls are back in the market. See previous analysis below. BTC Monthly Outlook Update (23/03/2021) Approaching Whale Accumulation Zone at the 78.60% Fibonacci level @ $52,371. Interesting next few days from here as a bounce from the 200 SMA at the whale accumulation zone could finally see us break through the key resistance at the current ATH level from 14/03/21 @ $61,690. April is set to be a very interesting and pivotal month for the cryptocurrency space. See previous analysis and monthly outlook below. Happy Trading :) #whaleaccumulationzone Update 21/03/21: Yesterday the Bulls failed to push the price higher and we had a small retracement down from $59.5k to $55.6 where we found some support of the current price level (-7%). From here the worst case scenario would find us in a key whale accumulation zone @ 78.60% Fibonacci level $52,371. However this scenario is unlikely to play out and as expected from the previous outlook before, we expect the Bulls to come back in the market, pushing as further to higher highs as we have been consolidating around this key price range between $54.5K to the current ATH @ $61.8k. If we fail to break past the previous ATH , the bearish scenario may see a test of the 200 SMA around the 78.60% Fibonacci level, otherwise the Bullish scenario is still in play. Note that from this current trend from 28th January we have only tested the 200 SMA once and a bounce from this level may signal a much stronger bullish move towards our price target $77,335 @ the 161.80% Fibonacci extension and further $107,340 @ the 261.80% Fibonacci level. So far great performance this month from £BTC as March is usually quite a bearish month looking back at the past. April looks ready for us to really fly, testing the 161.80% Fibonacci extension , but note this may not be a straight forward push but all the fundamentals are pointing towards the $70K as our next significant area of interest for the Bulls, currently a 16% gain from the current price level would see BTC reach $66,953 127.20% Fib extension. See previous analysis from 1st March 2021 below. Happy Trading :) $BTC #HODL *Update 20/03/21 #BTC Monthly Outlook Update from 1st March 2021; 13 EMA crossing up 50 SMA showing strong bullish sentiment as we are about to enter the last week of the month, expect the bulls to come back and to push the price higher. Currently the 127.20% Fibonacci Target ($66,953) has not been tested yet, but we expect some big movement in price over the next few days and further going into the last week of the month (Yes, it has been March Madness), 13% Gain from the current price level @ $59,390 to $66,953 127.20% Fib extension. Our next target after this is $77,335 @ the 161.80% Fibonacci extension . From our analysis at the beginning of the month It looks like scenario 2 has been in play, see below previous analysis from 2nd March 2021. In addition to previous price analysis, the Cryptocurrency 'Super Cycle' is in play as we are just at the brink of global adoption. 2017/18 was the hype era, we cannot continue to set targets based on the price movements during the cycle mainly fuelled by hyper and euphoria, it is now 4 years later and real development has been happening behind the scenes, a lot of people cannot quite comprehend the growth and the different cycle that we are now in as Moore's Law of exponential growth can only give us a hint at the growth that is about to be experienced over the next 4 year cycle. An increased influx of capital injection into this now trillion dollar market will only continue, as Defi takes its hold on current Global financial infrastructure, and yes history repeats itself, We call this the 'Roaring 20s' just like before at the end of WW1, the pandemic has only accelerated the current adoption rate of blockchain technology. As some are already aware, the best time to grow a million dollar portfolio was from 2009 to 2019 just after the housing market crash. The second best time in our lifetime is Now! from 2021 to 2029 after the pandemic market crash. We are still very much Bullish for BTC to reach our EOY Target of $356,000, See below key fundamentals which support our bullish sentiment. *(March 02, 2021 Update) BTC is currently consolidating at 61.80 Fibonacci Level. BTC outlook for the month ahead is still very much bullish . Although the sellers have been in control of the market since soaring to a new ATH on 21/02/21, BTC took a sharp retracement as expected at these new level of resistance as well as a new ATHof$58,792 on the Gemini Exchange. As from historic highs we see a lot of profit taking occurring after 3 weeks of setting new constant highs from the previous low of the last push wave which saw BTC setting a high of $42K and then sharply retracing down to $28,787 where we found the previous resistance and also the beginning of the last phase which saw one of the greatest run of Bitcoin in history, reaching the current ATH of $58,792. With the current push phase now over we find ourselves asking how low can we go from here and when do we expect to break past a new ATH . This outlook is based on 2 possible scenarios which could both play out. We have seen the 50% Fibonacci retracement level respected on the last 2 Push phases which both set new ATHs, the first being $42K and latter, the recent high of $58K. As we have seen a strong retracement over the past 7 days back down to the 50% Fibonacci, it may be time for the BTC Bulls to regain control of the market as the current fundamentals point to the 50%-38.2% Fibonacci level of key resistance as well as a point of accumulation for the BTC whales, more importantly the $39,000 mark when looking left at the previous key resistance before the parabolic move to the $58k ATH . With this in mind, from the current levels we could see the price of BTC sink further before the much expected move which could see BTC testing the previous High of $58k and further pushing to the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level setting a new ATH @ $66,953. Scenario 2 would see the current push towards the ATH continue but may face some resistance, and further consolidation expected around $46k-$49k as they are the key Whale Supports towards the upside, so a further retracement could be in play, possibly testing the 50% Fibonacci level, as well as the 50 SMA , with a bounce confirming an explosive move to the upside which could see BTC easily smash past the 127.20% Fib extension level setting new fresh Highs between $67,000-$78,400+ by mid to late March. Use the buy zone indicated to map out your position as a possible 52% gain is achievable from the Buy zone. Stochastics showing an extremely oversold market condition. Happy Trading :) * Key Supporting Fundamentals for BTC: Strong Interest of Institutional Players A survey of institutional investors and wealth managers who already engage with bitcoin reveals that 85 per cent plan to increase their investment in the cryptocurrency over the next two years. The survey, which was commissioned by Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), a regulated investment manager connecting traditional finance with the digital assets market, also reveals that between now and 2023, 72 per cent expect professional investors in general to invest in bitcoin for the first time or increase their exposure. Current Economic Instability The policy of the US Federal Reserve and the economic instability that has arisen as a result of the unprecedented emission of new dollars may further play a role in the growth of Bitcoin price...10% of the $380 billion stimulus money could be going directly into cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin . Digital Gold Crypto currencies certainly look as if they’re here to stay. It makes a lot of sense to have them in an increasingly digitised world. While bitcoin has a strong tendency to polarise opinion, it has now gained acceptance among some of the world’s largest financial institutions and payments companies. MasterCard, for instance, has said it will begin supporting crypto currencies on its network later this year. PayPal already allows eligible users to buy, sell and hold bitcoin in the US and expects to roll out its service in other territories soon. The Case For Global Adoption and New Reserve Currency Cryptocurrencies promise to help solve problems that are particularly acute in emerging markets (EM). Their governments are often centralized but relatively unreliable, which destabilizes currencies, opens the door to profiteering middlemen, and erodes public trust. Blockchain, the technology behind Bitcoin’s decentralized network, promises to cut out the grasping hands of governments and middlemen, and speed up transactions with more transparency and lower fees. It is offering what many EM customers are desperate for. The Development and Extensions of Blockchain Technology Due to the nature of blockchain technology’s ability to benefit all parties involved in different business operations. Since it was introduced in 2009 through the application of Bitcoin , blockchain technology continues to attract not just the financial institutions of the world, but also other fields and industries in insurance , law, entertainment and the Internet of Things ( IOT ) applications. Several scholars and advocates have also strongly suggested the use of the technology in voting systems globally, medical records and vehicle registrations by the state to further increase efficiency, simultaneously eradicating fraud in many areas. This technology does not only aim to improve conventional business operations but can also empower the greater society out of poverty as 1.7 billion adults in the world remain unbanked. The widespread adoption of a cryptocurrency like bitcoin running on the blockchain would mean that anyone with access to the internet can send and receive value from point A to B without the need of a third party. Although many Banks were very hesitant and in fact spread fear in the markets due to cryptocurrencies being linked to nefarious activities on the dark web. A recent study by Goldman Sachs suggested that the adoption of blockchain technology in facilitating seamless cross border transactions without the worry of fraudulent transactions could save up to $6 billion a year; as the new models currently being developed by the bank would mean inefficient payment and accounting networks would be eradicated.
GEMINI:BTCUSDLong
by CryptocurrencyMagnet
BITCOIN: LAST SUPPORT AREA + HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN.Bitcoin seems still in bearish scenario as you can see at Timeframe 4 Hour, show head and shoulders pattern (bearish) and bitcoin failed to break EMA 200 at Timeframe 1 Day. The last support area around 39812 - 41183 price. You can take short position and take profit there with stop loss around 49355. Watch your money management and do your own research before trading. If break it will be bearish season. Look my previous ideas here: note: only take position after confirmation and do your own research before trading.
Short
by pandupratama7
BITCOIN and the 'Rally kickstart Test'Many members of the community have asked me to look into greater detail at the popular analysis I made about 10 days ago that partially looked at Bitcoin's RSI pattern on the 1W time-frame in relation to the current market structure and that of mid 2020: Well, you were right in doing so as by expanding this pattern and elaborating more on the similarities of the two structures, I discovered that if we look into the RSI from a slightly different perspective and by disregarding the March 2020 crash due to the COVID irregularity, we can see that the prevailing pattern is a Triangle (green pattern) that after an initial "soft" break-out to the upside (blue Arc pattern), it pulled back to test the (former) top/ Lower Highs trend-line of the Triangle. After that held the test(August 2020), the massive parabolic rally of October 2020 - April 2021 started. I call that point the 'Rally kickstart Test'. The 1W RSI followed a similar structure during that time, holding and rebounding on its Pivot line (formerly a Resistance). On today's structure, we see that BTC currently had that 'Rally kickstart Test' candle two weeks ago. On top of holding the former top zone of the Triangle, it also closed above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The RSI is currently on its Pivot and holding. If we have successive 1W candle closings above the Triangle's top, does it mean that we have a new parabolic rally in the making? What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
69