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BoE is dovisher than the Fed. Will Sterling continue to fall? Sterling is exhibiting weakness as a robust US economy bolsters the dollar. With the likelihood of a substantial Fed rate cut now nullified by the strong US job market, speculation of further rate cuts by the BoE in November is exerting downward pressure on the GBPUSD. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's statement about the potential for more aggressive rate cuts in response to ongoing inflation decline has intensified apprehensions about the BoE's hawkish monetary policy. It is also worth noting that the UK Treasury is expected to present a budget with tax hikes and austerity measures. This could exert pressure on near-term growth for the UK economy and lead to a decline in the value of the Sterling. GBPUSD maintained its downtrend and fell to 1.3060. The widening distance between both EMAs suggests a bearish momentum. If GBPUSD breaks the support at 1.3050, the price may fall further to 1.2960. Conversely, if GBPUSD breaches the resistance at 1.3250 and holds above both EMAs, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.3435.
by inkicho_exness
GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP nextThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate. This was the lowest level since June 2022. Wage growth is moving in the right direction but is still much too high for the BoE’s liking as it is incompatible with the target of keeping inflation at 2%. The UK labour market remains strong, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, down from 4%. The economy created 265 thousand jobs in the three months to July, up sharply from 97 thousand in the previous report and blowing past the market estimate of 115 thousand. The solid data means that the BoE isn’t under pressure to cut rates next week, and the markets are looking at another cut in November. The UK economy gets a report card on Wednesday, with the release of GDP for July. The economy flatlined in June and rose just 0.6% in the three months to June. Another weak GDP release could put pressure on the British pound. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s US inflation release. The Federal Reserve is now focused on employment now that inflation is between 2% and 3%, but a CPI surprise could shake up the markets and change market pricing for a Fed rate cut. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have been slashed to 29%, compared to 59% on Friday. There is resistance at 1.3167 and 1.3225 1.3069 and 1.3011 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD extends gains as retail sales bounce backThe British pound has extended its gains on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2887 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. It has been a winning week for the pound, which has climbed 1%. There was more good news from the UK economy as retail sales rebounded in July by 0.5% m/m, after a revised decline of 0.9% in June and in line with the market estimate. Annually, GDP surged 1.4%, compared to -0.8% in June and matching the market estimate. The pound has moved higher in response to the positive retail sales data. The bounce in retail sales reflects summer discounts and purchases related to the Euro 2024 and the Paris Olympics, such as apparel. As well, with inflation finally under control and running close to 2%, consumers are responding by opening up their wallets and purses. The positive retail sales report follows yesterday’s solid GDP release. The UK economy recorded rose 0.6% in Q2, a second straight quarter of growth. The economy is showing some strength in the second quarter but that may not have much effect on the Bank of England’s rate path. The increase in growth may not be sustainable and BoE policy makers have said that they are more focused on inflation, particularly service inflation, which remains much higher than the BoE’s 2% target. The markets are expecting further cutting before the end of the year and have priced in a rate reduction at the November meeting. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2884. Above, there is resistance at 1.2914 1.2841 and 1.2811 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD dips after strong US retail salesThe British pound posted losses earlier but has clawed back and is in positive territory. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2846 in the North American session, up 0.20% on the day. After sustaining a technical session in the second half of 2023, the UK economy is on a rebound. GDP climbed 0.6% in the second quarter, in line with expectations and a notch lower than the Q1 gain of 0.7%. On an annualized basis, GDP rose 0.9%, up from 0.3% and in line with the market estimate. The annualized gain was the strongest growth rate since Q3 of 2022. The strong GDP data comes on the heels of yesterday’s inflation release. CPI for July rose to 2.2%, above the June gain of 2% but below the market estimate of 2.3%. The strong GDP could mean a pause at the September rate meeting. The markets are expecting the next rate cut in November, after the Bank of England delivered the first cut of the new rate-cutting cycle earlier this month. The US economy may have lost a step but don’t count the US consumer out. Retail sales jumped 1% m/m in July, up sharply from a revised -0.2% and blowing past the market estimate of 0.3%. The strong consumer spending data supports a modest rate cut of 25 basis points. Last week’s rout in the global markets raised expectations of a massive 50-basis point cut as a response to fears of a deterioration in the US economy. These fears have been allayed somewhat but if the US posts further weak numbers we could see panic return to the markets. GBP/USD pushed above resistance at 1.2838 earlier and is testing resistance at 1.2857. Above there is resistance at 1.2889 1.2706 and 1.2787 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD shrugs as UK CPI rises less than expectedThe British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2844 in the European session, down 0.15% on the day. Headline inflation in the UK rose 2.2% y/y in July, up from 2% in June but below the market estimate of 2.3%. Perhaps most important for the Bank of England, services inflation slowed to 5.2%, the lowest since June 2022 and well below the BoE’s forecast of 5.6%. Monthly, inflation fell 0.2% in July, down from 0.1% in June and the first decline in six months. Core inflation fell from 3.5% y/y to 3.3% and monthly from 0.2% to 0.1%, also below expectations. The soft inflation report supports the case for another rate cut in September, which the money markets have priced in at 45%. The BoE joined the new phase of the central banking cycle when it cut rates on August 1 by a quarter-point to 5%. The BoE meets next on September 19. The UK released a mixed employment report on Tuesday. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% in the second quarter, down from 4.4% in Q1 and wage growth with bonuses slowed from a revised 5.8% y/y to 5.4%, its lowest level in two years. Still, this was much higher than the market estimate of 4.6% and is much higher than the inflation rate. Unemployment claims shot up to 135 thousand in July, blowing past the market estimate of revised 36.2 thousand and the market estimate of 4.6%.  There is resistance at 1.2833 and 1.2903  1.2792 and 1.2722 are the next support levels
by OANDA
British pound calm ahead of UK jobs reportThe British pound is drifting on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2768 early in the North American session, up 0.08% on the day. The UK releases the employment report for the three months to June and we could see signs of a cooling labour market. Annualized average earnings including bonuses, which has hovered between 5.5%-6% all year, is expected to fall sharply to 4.6%. The previous reading came in at 5.7%, the lowest since September 2022. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 4.4% for the past two readings, the highest since September 2021. Unemployment is expected to nudge up to 4.5% in the three months to June. This would signal that the labor market is weakening and would make If wage growth declines and the unemployment rate rises in tomorrow’s report, it would support the case for the Bank of England delivering another rate cut, perhaps as soon as next month. The BoE meets on September 19, just one day after the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by at least a quarter-point. The BoE joined the central bank trend of cutting rates earlier this month when it lowered rates by a quarter-point to 5%. We have entered a new phase of the central bank cycle, with most of the major central banks having already lowered rates. The Federal Reserve will almost certainly lower rates at the September meeting, but by how much? Just one month ago, the markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 90%, according to the CME’s FedWatch, but then the US posted some weak numbers and the financial markets sank. This has boosted the likelihood of a half-point cut, which on Friday was around a 50/50 split with a quarter-point cut. Still, not everybody who has a say is urging a rate cut. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, a voting member on the FOMC, said on Friday that she is hesitant about cutting rates, since inflation is “uncomfortably above” the 2% target and the labor market remains strong. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2779. Above, there is resistance at 1.2801 1.2753 was tested in support earlier. The next support level is 1.2731
by OANDA
Double Bottom w/ Break of Confirmation!! - EGHere I have EUR/GBP on the Daily chart! The Lows @ .83972 & .83827 seem to have found enough Support in this Zone since its last visit back in the summer of 2022! After BOE decided to cut their Interest Rates to 5% on Thursday, we see the end of the week gave us quite a Bullish close above the Lower High @ .8490 CONFIRMING the Double Bottom Reversal Pattern!! With the: -Divergence of Price vs RSI @ Level of Support -Break of Structure from LL to HH -and Price on RSI Above 50 *All that's left is to wait for Price to retrace back down to the .8490 area where the Break of Confirmation of Pattern happened for some potential Buy Opportunities!!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
GBP/USD sharply lower as BoE cuts ratesThe British pound has fallen sharply on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2774 in the North American session, down 0.63% on the day. Earlier, GBP/USD fell to 1.2750, its lowest level in a month. For those readers who like to follow the central banks (as the writer does), it has been a very interesting week. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark rate, while the Bank of England opted to cut rates. The BoE delivered a rate cut earlier today, the first time it has lowered rates in over four years. The quarter-point trim lowered the cash rate to an even 5%. The meeting was live as the markets remained uncertain right until decision time as to whether the Bank would hold or cut rates. Ahead of the meeting, the markets priced in a 61% probability of a quarter-point cut, which made for many surprised investors after the decision. Interestingly, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of a cut, with four members voting to hold rates. The markets had expected a 6-3 vote, which meant that Governor Bailey barely pushed the rate cut through. The BoE didn’t provide any hints on the future rate path, but we could see more cutting later in the year if inflation continues on its current downtrend. Headline inflation fell to 2%, the BoE’s target rate, in May and June, although services inflation remains much higher at 5.7%. The Federal Reserve held its meeting on Wednesday and it was a virtual certainty that it would maintain rates for a seventh straight time. Fed Chair gave the markets what they wanted, as he hinted broadly at a rate cut in September. Powell said that the Fed was more confident that inflation is heading towards the 2% target and the rate statement indicated that inflation was less of an issue than at the June meeting.  GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2830 and 1.2793. Below, there is support at 1.2737 1.2886  and 1.2993 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
$GBINTRS - BoE's Snowball - The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose at their recent monetary policy committee meeting. The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point, taking the official rate to 5% ; double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists. BoE hiking interest rates to 5% , it adds further strain to millions of homeowners across the country. The Central Bank Rates was upped by 0.5% from 4.5% previously and remains at it's Highest Level since 2008 Financial Crisis.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Levels discussed on Livestream 1st August 1st August DXY: Found support at 104, retracing, if above 104.20 could test 104.40. (wait for retracement to complete before continuation lower) NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 55 AUDUSD: Do nothing, look for reaction at 0.65 USDJPY: Wait for retracement to complete at 151, Sell 150.75 SL 45 TP 170 GBPUSD: Sell 1.2770 SL 20 TP 65 (BoE decision pending) EURUSD: Sell 1.0795 SL 20 TP 55 USDCHF: Buy 0.8770 SL 25 TP 60 USDCAD: Look for reaction at 1.39 Gold: Could retrace to test 2430, look for rebound to 2450, beyond that 2480
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision A Reuters survey indicates that most economists anticipate the Bank of England (BOE) reducing interest rates at its August meeting. The poll revealed that over 80% of respondents expect a rate cut. We could see a close decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with a 5-4 split in favor of a rate cut, leaving Governor Andrew Bailey to cast the deciding vote. Market sentiment, however, remains more divided. Although, the investor outlook is gradually aligning with the expectation of a rate reduction with a slight majority predicting that rates will be cut. Over in the US, the nonfarm payrolls report is forecasted to show a decline from 206,000 in June to 175,000 in July. Contrary to this consensus, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen predicts a significant rise in nonfarm payrolls to 225,000 for July, the highest since March. While the July jobs report may not drastically shift the Federal Reserve's policy direction, it will be pivotal in solidifying expectations for a rate cut in September.
by BlackBull_Markets
Pressure Builds Ahead of Major Central Bank Marathon It's a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation. The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40% chance of no change. A lack of action could undermine the yen's recent gains with a potential resistance at 155.30 (100 MA). The Fed's announcement is scheduled for Wednesday. Market expectations for a rate cut are just 5%. Investors are keenly awaiting any signals regarding a potential move in September. Finally, the Bank of England has the market guessing with an almost 50 –50 chance for a cut. GBP traders are also digesting a key speech from the new finance minister Rachel Reeves in which she unveiled plans for some spending cuts/ or tax increases to fill a £22bn spending shortfall that was 'covered up' by the Conservative government. Traders now also have 30th October to look forward to as the date of the autumn budget.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/USD at 1-year high as UK CPI remains at 2%The British pound continues to roll and is up for a sixth straight day. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038 in the European session, up 0.51% on the day. The pound has sparkled in July, climbing 3% and hitting its highest level since July 2023. UK consumer inflation remained at 2% y/y in July, unchanged from June. This was higher than the market estimate of 1.9% but it’s hard to complain when inflation is at the BoE’s 2% target for two months running. Monthly, inflation dipped to 0.1%, down from 0.3% a month earlier, and matching the market estimate. Core inflation rose 3.5% y/y, unchanged from June and matching the market estimate. Monthly, core inflation dropped from 0.5% to 0.2%, below the market estimate of 0.1%. The inflation report was positive and the pound responded by extending its impressive July rally. The fly in the ointment was services inflation, which the Bank of England watches keenly for signs of domestic inflationary pressure. Services inflation has been an outlier and was unchanged at 5.7% in July. How will the BoE view the inflation report? Overall the release was positive, but services inflation is almost three times higher than the 2% target, which is a concern for policy makers. The cash rate is currently at 5.25%, unchanged since August 2023 when inflation was 7.9%. There is pressure on the BoE to provide relief and hit the rate-cut trigger but the central bank may lack the confidence to make a move at the next meeting on August 1. The remainder of the week will be busy, with the UK releasing the employment report on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3008. Above, there is resistance at 1.3051 1.2987 and 1.2944 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBPUSD H8 - Sell SignalGBPUSD H8 Converse to AUDUSD analysis above. We also have the likes of GBPUSD here in front of us, where we have seen a rejection from 1.28500 price, a half number acting as resistance. If we look to the left on this chart, on June 12, you'll notice and aggressive selloff. This formed an attractive area of supply. We have a few confluence in and around this 1.28500 price, so it's certainly a zone to keep an eye on for USD strength resumption. A double top on 1.28500 could be a great sell signal.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
GBP/USD shrugs despite sparkling retail salesThe British pound is slightly lower on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2636 early in the North American session, down 0.17% on the day. UK retail sales jumped 2.9% m/m in May, an impressive turnaround from the revised 1.8% decline in April and blowing past the market estimate of 1.8%. This was the highest level since January. Yearly, retail sales climbed 1.3%, rebounding from a revised 2.3% drop in April and above the market estimate of -0.9%. This marked the sharpest gain since March 2022. The increase in consumer spending was felt across the economy, as rising wages have helped consumers withstand weak economic growth and high interest rates. The weather was a key factor, as a very wet April dampened retail sales, which rebounded in what was the warmest May on record. UK GfK Consumer Confidence rose to -14 in June, up from -17 in May and above the market estimate of -17. Consumers remain pessimistic but the confidence indicator has climbed for three straight months and hit its highest level since November 2021. The Bank of England stayed on the sidelines on Thursday, keeping the benchmark rate of 5.25% unchanged for an eighth straight time. The BoE upgraded its growth forecast for the second quarter and that could mean an August rate cut, which would be the first cut since the BoE embarked on its steep rate-hike cycle to tame high inflation. Earlier in the week, inflation dropped to 2%, the BoE’s target, for the first time in almost three years. The fly in the ointment is that service inflation is running at 5.7% and will have to come down before the BoE cuts rates. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2633. Below, there is support at 1.2608 There is resistance at 1.2679 and 1.2704
by OANDA
GBP/USD lower as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is lower on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2683 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The Bank of England held rates at today’s meeting, as expected. There are no releases out of the US today. There were no surprises as the Bank of England maintained interest rates at today’s meeting. The BoE kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25% for a eighth straight time. Ahead of the meeting, the money markets had priced the likelihood of a hold at 95%. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of a hold, with two members voting for a quarter-point cut. This result was expected by the markets and was a repeat of the vote at the previous meeting in May. This is a 16-year high but the central bank remains reluctant to cut rates due to concerns over inflation. The good news was that the inflation rate fell to 2% in May, the first time that the BoE has met its 2% target in almost three years. However, the BoE was less happy about services inflation, which remained extremely high at 5.7% in May. This was down slightly from 5.9% in the previous report but above the market forecast of 5.5%. The rate statement noted that services inflation remained high. Political considerations likely played a role in the BoE’s decision. The UK is in the midst of an election campaign and is keen not to be seen as interfering in the election. A rate cut at this sensitive time might have been viewed as helping Prime Minister Sunak, whose Conservative Party is trailing badly in opinion polls. Had the BoE trimmed rates, Sunak would have been quick to take credit for the cut and saying it proved that the government’s economic policy was working. Unfortunately for Sunak, the next BoE meeting isn’t till after the election in August. GBP/USD pushed below support at 1.2717 and 1.2695 earlier and is putting pressure on support at 1.2670 There is resistance at 1.2742 and 1.2764
by OANDA
GBPUSD - OFFICIAL BANK RATE RELEASE 20 JUNEI would expect a temporary bullish after the news from BOE interest rate. Based on my sole opinions, there might be no changes from the forecast of 5.25% due to UK inflation rate is under control. Based on price action, I have created a new dealing range from Tuesday 18 June - Low to yesterday High. For the Pound to be bullish , I want to see that price draw liquidity below the 0.5 range. At the extreme, price may reach around 0.25 range. Price expected to rise gradually to draw liquidity on yesterday highs and into H4 FVG. If this is played out, I would expect a bearish outcome. Turtle soup strategy.
Long
by ShahZak
Bracing for UK Inflation & BOE decision In the UK, inflation data expected tomorrow is projected to fall to 2% in May, down from 2.3% in April. This would mark the first time since April 2021 that inflation has hit the Bank of England’s 2% target. However, a positive inflation report is unlikely to result in a rate cut at Thursday’s meeting, especially with an election on July 4th. Markets are pricing in an initial rate cut for August. Technically, the pound/dollar has been trading sideways recently. With GBP/USD breaking below 1.2700, the first support level is at 1.2667, the May 24 low. For any more downside, the next target could be the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2643, followed by 1.2600. Limiting the downside could be the recently released US retail sales data. US retail sales grew by a modest 0.1% in May, below the expected 0.2% gain. Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 0.1%. Additionally, April retail sales were revised down from flat to a 0.2% decline.
by BlackBull_Markets