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Breadth Indicators

Optimism poised for a 75% draw downTLDR: Lots of well established TA suggests OP takes out the previous lows at 0.41. Analysis I am going to begin with the divergence primer just in case a reader is unfamilar with the divergences and what they mean. Divergence Primer Classic Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator As the chart shews both OPUSD and OPBTC both have great deal of hidden bearish divergence on the Log MACD (and histogram) as well as the RSI and Stochastic RSI. The Gaussian channel is pretty powerful as support and resistance and generally speaking I get excited to buy beneath a red Gaussian channel or when I see price action powering its way through. Not so much with OP right now, with the hidden bearish divergences. I expect the top of the channel will continue as resistance. Likewise the 100 Daily Moving Average is right above price action and I assume it will continue to act as resistance as well. The volume situation doesn't look good to me either. With price breaking out above the Value Area of the VPVR to create all time highs and coming back in on both OPUSD and OPBTC I think we are going to see more typical behavior and the value area will act as resistance, especially on OPBTC. The On Balance Volume has set virtually equal highs with this current peak and the peak from September. That is a sign of bullish exhaustion. It is also concerning that both the 10 and 20 SMA are below the 100. If the OBV regresses to the mean (the 10 or the 20) then that dip would get me deep into the money. Not all the way to target, but deep enough I can have a fairly profitable stop loss. Here is a similar move on Matic over two years ago where Matic dupped and took out what looked like strong support at the 0 line before rallying up to just above the 0.618 retracement before crashing. From there it went 400x If OP has a similar run then I will be quite pleased. Also, if OP crashes down to about the 0.28c I will go in full accumulation mode and hopefully we will see it run in another year or so. Macro I still think a lot of the equities indices are mostly done with their downside. I also like a lot of the "OG" crypto currency coins like XMR, Dash, XPR, BCH and I think a lot of the nu-crypto coins that were the top runners of 2021 are going to crash at bit more before going into long consolidation. That is a lot of moving parts for me to hopefully get right.
Short
by This_Guhy
1
Is software ever coming back? $DV is leading the recoveryDoubleverify Hldgs Inc help brands improve the effectiveness of their online advertising. I bought half a position and so far the price hasn't under cut its support at $25, just were my stop is. For me this is a really good sign, considering what the SP:SPX is doing. The bad thing is that the OBV and ROC is signaling a bearish divergence. If I had full position I'd have cut it in half. So, as long as it doesn't break from the $25 support I'll hold my position. If price goes above $29.50 I'll add more.
NYSE:DV
by dpuleo19
Potential Bounce on the SPX after of CPI printI am thinking we might get a nice bounce on the SPX regardless what the CPI print is. If CPI comes in better than expected, we bounce (naturally). If CPI comes in worst than expectation, we probably get a wash out, trap some late shorts, then bounce. Reasons: We are potentially forming a double bottom here with a lower low (June and Oct), the orange zone should act as a support area and it is also between the 0.5-0.618 retracement of the COVID bull market. It appears that we are about to break below the 30 Sep bottom, but the RSI is significantly higher, a bullish RSI divergence in play. Finally looking at the breadth (stocks above 50D average), we are again as oversold as June 2022 and the very bottom of the COVID crash. At such oversold level, any kind of "good news" would get us a decent bounce. Needless to say, the sentiment now is extremely bearish, but it is also the perfect condition for a bear market rally.
SP:SPXLong
by timhku
6
BTC - URGENT STATISTICAL WARNINGHello everyone! I haven't published charts on TradingView for a while BUT I am considering starting up again. What do you guys think? Hope everyone is doing well through this bear market. Unfortunately, I have some more bearish analysis for you here but these indicators have been VERY STRONG in my experience and as you can see on the chart. This chart uses the Breadth & Volume indicator which has become one of my favorite, go-to, indicators for signals lately. This is a BTCUSD DAILY chart so these signals are typically stronger than smaller timeframes and the Daily chart also carries more weight than smaller timeframes as well. This is a VERY SELF EXPLANATORY chart. I took a lot of time to make it as easy as possible to understand because I feel this signal is very important. I have back-tested this signal over the last 16 months as you can see on the chart here. This signal has flashed just 5 times over the last 16 months (actually 6 because 2 of them are connected but I count that as 1) THE ACTUAL SIGNAL WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE is "BEARISH DIVERGENCE" on the B&V INDICATOR. (Represented by RED LINES on the B&V indicator) I marked all of the signals with vertical lines and a yellow oval around the actual signal itself. If you look at all the signals on the chart, they have ALL led to DOUBLE DIGIT DROPS! Not just that, but you can see that almost all of the drops started IMMEDIATELY after the signal flashed. There is ONE exception shown on the chart in the GREEN CALLOUT LABEL where BTC price increased by about 6% BEFORE dropping. The AVERAGE DROP is greater than 27% and the average timeframe is 34.4 days. Notice one of the drops took over 70 days while one took just 5 or so but most seem to be between 20-30 days. Based off of this powerful signal, I think going "SHORT" is the way to go. As you can see on the chart, If BTC were to fall 27.4% it would put the price just BELOW 15K. Also, 34.4 days from the signal is NOVEMBER 8th. I hope you all use this information wisely. I'm happy to share it with you. Please LIKE, COMMENT, SHARE and FOLLOW me for more analysis! Until next time, Take care.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Mboersma0324
1
Bitcoin's weekly OBV, NVT and Hash Ribbon Bear Market ChecklistTL:DR: The Bear market inflection is NEAR, it has not occurred. More time to accumulate (or get wrecked using margin). QRD: Bottoming structure not yet clear, OBV 10 has not bullishly crossed the 20 below 100 yet. Price still below blue resistance line. NVT shows bear market inflection, as does the Hash Ribbon. Inflection score is 2/6. Introduction There are two major concepts this post is broadly dealing with. The first one volume and its interpretation and the second is looking at bitcoin as a payment network with its own native currency. The United States has a payment network and it uses dollars. The European Union has a payment network and it's currency is creatively called the Euro. Similarly, the bitcoin network currency is as creatively named: bitcoin. A trite saying is bull markets end with a roar and bear markets end with a whimper. I am looking for the point where the bear market whimpers its last and we are getting pretty close on a robust set of criteria. With a sorter list of criteria, I think one could already call it based on the Hash Ribbon firing its buy signal while the NVT is green and the OBV 10 and 20 SMA were both under the 100 SMA but I personally can't do that without a bottoming structure and while price is still below the blue trend line. Volume analysis There are several proper ways of looking at volume. There is the standard volume by timeframe that many people use, with red or green bars stacked across the bottom of their chart. The volume profile is also very useful for determining where price action support and resistance is supported by volume. Lots of price action with very little volume behind it suggest that the next move could move through that price action quite quickly. The volume indicator I have spent a couple of years tinkering with is the On Balance Volume with Moving Averages. To keep the charts visually simple I have made the decision to just focus on the moving averages. A common phrase in trading is exhaustion. Bear markets end when sellers are exhausted. There is no real indicator I know off that spits out a buy signal when sellers have been exhausted so I have been working on a system to determine that. Bitcoin and crypto is very volatile and so the weekly time frame, so far, has back tested quite well. Equities and commodities still need some tinkering with for this system to work. The bold green line is the 100 SMA of the On Balance Volume. When the OBV is at the 100 it is a sign of some significant sideways movement or a prolonged period of selling from a previous all time high. When the 10 or 20 OBV SMAs go below the 100 we are deep in a bear market where we can expect to get the best value should price recover. Previous bear Markets The 2015 bear market had a massive W bottom with the second low being lower than the first low. That would have been very painful for anyone setting their stops for a high low W reversal. The OBV SMAs crossed several times down there and very certainly a lof of traders got whipped out of their positions while investors and smart money did what they could to buy the lows. The 2018 and 19 bear market bottom was a beautiful ascending trianle that had massive amounts of over-performance to the upside. I spent most of that uptrend waiting for a pullback that never came and that is why looked at creating this system, so I could predict such impulsive moves before they come. Current Bear Market The On balance Volume 10 and 20 SMAs are deep under the 100 which suggest a great time to accumulate The 10 has not crossed the 20 yet so the bear market inflection, based on volume, has not happened just yet. Bitcoin does not appear to have a long-term reversal structure yet, a W bottom or ascending triangle seem most likely. It does not seem like we are going to have anything resembling saucers and so far a inverted head and shoulders doesn't seem likely. NVT Analysis As stated above, bitcoin is a payment system, called bitcoin, and the currency of the bitcion network. When someone buys bitcoin they are buying currency of that network to use that currency network at a later point in time or to sell to someone else that wants to use that currency network. This marvelous version of the NVT is very useful as it can help us determine when the currency is relatively cheap compared to how much the network is being used. If we want to use the network for payments this is the time to do it. Likewise, if we want to get a good price on the currency to use later, either by sending bitcoin or selling it we would do that now. The system is pretty simple with the NVT. If the NVT is green and is moving sideways, not down) we have reached an inflection point with the NVT. Hash Ribbon The hash ribbon can be pretty noisy with all of the different signals you can have it spit out. For this system there is only one signal we want, the buy signal, and we only want it at one time. when the OBV 10 and 20 are below the 100 while the NVT is deep in the green. Since we have this the Hash Ribbon inflection has occurred. After All Signals Fire Once all signals for a bear market inflection are in we will be in the early stages of the bull market. For me, that will be as the NVT goes into the yellow but before the first flash of red. Around the same time the OBV 10 and 20 SMAs will be crossing above the 100 SMA. This is the area between the black and orange lines on the chart. What I am doing I am looking to shovel quite a bit of money into some of my preferred alts so long as bitcoin is below the black line. And by shovel I mean I am selling leave at work as it comes by, picking up overtime, eating more oatmeal and eggs because they are cheap and filling, reducing my vice purchases (only the most affordable box wines for me now). I do see a stall occurring around 46,000 (the orange Line) but I don't think it will be similar to the C19 dump. But I do intend to take off some profit there for pay myself back for the quality of life I have been deferring. It is still way to early to tell, but I have a suspicion that Optimism might be this upcoming bull markets Solana. I definately have a position on and if it goes above the 2.618 I will be quite happy. If it approaches the 3.618 as Solana did I will be retired by next July.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
3
Market Breadth.. great tool for entry timingAre you looking for an edge in swing trading/long term investing? I highly suggest using market breadth! Highlighted with vertical lines on the chart and yellow and red circles in the breadth chart (% of S&P above their 50 day MA) are all instances when breadth dropped to 50 or 30% AFTER rising from 10 to 91%. As you can see from the chart in all historical cases breadth went back up to at least 75% signaling and end to the correction/bear market. We are currently sitting at 48ish %. If breadth goes back up above 50 to 75% then history tells us (based on collective actions of all market participants) that this signals a move to new all time high!
INDEX:S5FI
by NQunlocked
CAD/JPY - 1H - Rising WedgeCAD/JPY is in a bullish trend, making HHs and HLs and forming a Rising Wedge . The price action is currently making a pullback into the rising support which has a confluence of slow MA dynamic support. The Bullish Bias is based on the following signals: Bullish trend (price making HHs and HLs) GMMA: fast MA above slow MA with separation Slow MA acting as dynamic support RSI above 50 and not too near overbought levels OBV convergence with price (uptrend has conviction) Expecting bulls to be in control above the rising support. Go short if the wedge breaks downside. Like & Follow for more such ideas.
Long
by yo_zubair
Could CPI data help the US30 confirm a continuation? Hi, and welcome to today’s update. In today’s video update, we’re looking at the US30 and wondering if today’s CPI could break the consolidation deadlock we are currently seeing price sitting in. Price continues to be held in an ascending triangle pattern, and in uptrends, these are typically seen as continuation patterns. We can clearly see that price remains in an uptrend, so if we see better than expected CPI data today, could that be a driver that sets off buyers? Better than expected data could tell the market that peak inflation could be here and that rates could move into a holding phase or at least see a smaller increase. But if we see worse than expected data, this could set the pattern up to fail, and we could see a new break lower. For now, we will look for the current trend to remain in play until we see further price action telling us otherwise. US CPI data is due out at 8:30 am EST. Good trading, and enjoy your Wednesday.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
MASSIVE BOTTOM in the SP500?I was not looking for a bottom in the SP500, but for Relative Strength in Gold with the relative Strength line from Trader Lion´s Indicator, on the weekly timeframe. Yet I noticed that the last peak in Relative Strength in Gold was on march 16th 2020. This made me curious so I went back and looked at all RS Peaks from 2008 till now, and they all coincided with bottoms in the SP500 to the very day. Some of those bottoms were absolutely massive buying opportunities: 2/3/09, 6/28/10, 2/1/16, 3/16/20, I also counted the peak on 12/17/18, despite a missing peak signal. Two Peak Signals were wrong or early, for example we had a signal on 3/9/20 (7 days before the real signal and real bottom), and one signal on June 6th 2022, so 7 days before the signal we got right now, on 6/13/22. I also want to point out, that on every other occation, we didnt have massive inflation and a tightening into worsening economic conditions. So I wanted to see more confirmation, for that purpose I´ve used the McClellan Summation Index, and the McClellan Oscillator. The MO shows a nice bullish divergence, and the MSI shows an abysmall market breadth, often coinciding with bottoms in the market. Do with this information, whatever your confirmation bias makes you want to do, but stay safe and manage risk! This is not financial advice and I am more often wrong than right. Pesonally, I will buy some Calls and reduce my short positions.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Cyranus