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Brexit

GBPUSD breaks the resistance. Buy from the current priceFew days ago we created a support and resistance for the Cable that when it breaks, it will continue. However when market is manipulated nowadays it is tricky to see which will it go later. However because of the ISM Manufacturing last night, it gives us an idea where the high chances that it will go. Always use a proper risk management because a Trump tweet or a recent trade war deal might stopped you out. Get our free signals here: t.me Follow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com
Long
by NathanielRondon
GBPUSD Important ZoneAfter a bearish move succeeding a head and shoulders pattern on GBPUSD, price has moved back into the important zone where bears have pushed it down into the support area. There may be some bullish momentum in the next week as bulls push price up towards the resistance. Maybe even towards the recent head in order to form a double top. In the longterm, my outlook on GBPUSD is still bearish due to the fundamental implications and uncertainty caused by Brexit and the upcoming exit day for the UK on October 31st.
Long
by IllusiveShroud
ORBEX: GBPUSD - Should We Expect The Breakout To Continue?It looks like the corrective intermediate wave (C) completed its bearish course at1.1956. The recent attempt to push prices down brought the pair lower where it completed a corrective minor A,B,C at the round 1.22 level. As part of intermediate wave (2), the minor three-wave corrected down to the 61.8% golden ratio of 1.1956 bottom and 1.2588 top at 1.21943 - to be more precise. The current breakout could be the beginning of intermediate wave (3). Should the formation gets validated above 1.2588, the next stop for a breather would be near 1.2828 100% FE, then near 1.32. The structure suggests that once minor corrective low A and then B are taken out by bulls, chances of further upside would increase. This opportunity would be invalidated below 1.1956 with short-term signs of failure appearing below 1.2194 (unless if this turns out as a double zig-zag or other corrective structure) Expect short-term pullbacks for profit-taking Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Long
by Orbex
ORBEX: EURJPY, GBPCHF - US-EU Tradewar Begins, BoJo Submits PlanIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURJPY and #GBPCHF #EURJPY looking bullish on: - Expectations of further BoJ easing - Poor JP consumer confidence - Soft BoJ monetary base - Good German PMIs and EA Inflation #GBPCHF looking bearish on: - Expectations of a strong franc - Poor UK construction PMI - Fresh BoJo proposal sentiment Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
AGE OF CURRENCY WAR The entire industrialized world is engaged in a form of economic warfare known as inflation . The idea being that if you can make your currency less valuable it makes your export more attractive for the foreign nations than if your currency was more expensive. So this has to do with fluctuations in currency prices. What you can buy stuff for in your country versus what you can buy stuff for in my country. The more inflation we cause, the more attractive our exports become to other countries. If you managed to destroy your economy through regulations, through taxation, through bad management and bad government and you don't really know how to create economic growth to pay for all the special welfare programs like UBI . If you don't have a way to do that through an actual growth, because you hamstrung your economy, how can you get more growth??? The way they do it is through currency inflation . So every industrialized nation in the world has figured this out. Now they all fighting a battle to make their currency as cheap as possible so their exports could be more attractive. How to create inflation? Well they reduce interest rates, making bonds less expensive, and then they end up issuing a lot of debt and printing a lot of money. They put money into circulation and they incentivize consumption. They put extra trillions of dollars into circulation because they know people will spend each penny every single year. It is gonna create a lot of inflation . They go further. What we see now is governments reducing its interest rates to negative.So if interest rates are negative it is no more reasonable to save money because it is costing you money to just put them in the bank. If saving money costs you, so you should spend your money as fast as you can and that is what these countries are doing. They are offering things like: negative interest rates on the mortgage to buy a house in Scandic nations. They are trying to stimulate a massive amount of consumption to pay you so you consume. In the beginning, it sounds like a great idea to you because you can purchase a 100000 home for 95000 by the time you done paying it because you have a negative interest rate. Over the long term though this is going to destroy an economy because it denies a very simple truth about the time value of money, about the way economics works. If they are manipulating the system for short term benefits it will end up crashing us. If interest rate is a price of money just think about it: if someone is paying you to take money from them, what does it tell you about future value of this money??? I will stop here. I will be happy to know your thoughts on a current situation. Feel free to share in a comment section.
TVC:EXYShort
by VasilyTrader
1
GBPCHF planAnalisa Teknikal masih mencadangkan saya untuk Bearish kesemua GBP pairs. Risiko besar bias ini adalah perkembangan terkini Brexit & suasana politik di United Kingdom. Berdasarkan data-data yang lepas, market seolah-olah "react" jika news tersebut berupakan news yang tidak baik bagi No Deal Brexit ataupun apa sahaja yang kena mengena dengan Boris Johnson. My technical analysis suggest that I should be bearish the Pound Sterling. The risk for this bias is any development of Brexit that usually led to Sterling to be bid. i.e No Deal Brexit, any bad things happen to Boris Johnson Price action yesterday was exactly what I wanted. Since I am bearish GBPCHF, i was looking for a bull trap at the levels that I have marked today on the chart. P2 bearish had been activated, I am still waiting for a bearish trigger signal and/or another test on the upside, preferably breaking yesterday's high. The daily range yesterday exceeded the 20-day ADR upside projection hence I am anticipating a more subdued price action today. Just anticipation. I love volatility, I wish there is one every day.
Short
by sufiansaid
GBP/JPYTimeframe (TF): 4 hr and Daily Trend: Down on 4-hr TF with a correction for current 4-hr TF uptrend; correction to downtrend on Daily TF -Some bullish divergence can be seen on the 4-Hr. Looking at the daily, stochastic is ready to move in the upwards direction, signaling some bullish movement may occur. -Do not just open a trade based on my opinion about the divergence, unless your system suggests you do. If a trade is opened, a very tight SL is recommended. -Fib levels may warrant some validity to this idea. On the Daily TF (overall downtrend), price got rejected at the 0.382 level, which may signal further decline in long-term. On the 4-Hr price is hovering around that 0.382 level which may give it a short-term bump to the upside. -Keep in in GBP pairs, and especially this pair, may show some serious volatility with Brexit and the uncertainty in that subject. Keep in mind that we are getting into October and Brexit news, whether good or bad may start rolling in a lot. Also note that JPY is also is a safe haven so any global issues can cause people buying JPY (and in this case shorting GBP). My previous view on GPB/JPY that turned out profitable (shorted ~134.60 down to 132.80), based on bearish divergence:
by MC_Mike_Trading
Euro and pound weakness, dollar strength and US crisisThe political scandal in the United States and Trump's coming impeachment proceedings. So the US stock market was falling against this background, the dollar was striving for multi-year highs. Such behaviour could be explained by the weakness of competitors. The euro, for example, received a number of painful hits both from the weak data on the Eurozone (consumer confidence fell to the lowest levels since 2015) and Germany (according to experts at the DIW Institute, Germany's economy is heading into recession), and from the ECB’s chief economist announced the possibility of a further rate cut by the Central Bank. The British pound also suffered losses in the foreign exchange market. The main reason is Brexit, or rather, the lack of progress in the negotiation process between Britain and the EU, as well as a statement by Bank of England representative that the Central Bank could reduce its interest rate even if it would be possible to avoid Britain's exit from the EU without a deal. Despite the existence of reasons to dollar strengthen, we still consider it anomalous (in the end, the Fed has already lowered the rate twice this year and most likely will do it one more time). Therefore, this week we will continue to look for points for its sales. However, there is no need to look for for a long time - the current dollar prices are close to ideal sales points. Given the global vector of monetary easing by the Central Banks gold as an object of interest is strengthening. So this week we will continue to look for points of asset purchase. While gold is above 1485, we see no threats to its purchases. Last week, selles trend was dominating on the oil market. The main reason was information on Saudi Arabia return oil production to its previous level. Data on oil reserves in the United States (reserves rose), as well as updated IEA forecasts, showing a slowdown in the growth of demand for oil in the world. In this light, our recommendation to sell oil this week remains relevant. Remember oil might be corrected any time, that means that small stops must be placed with every open position in oil. With regard to macroeconomic statistics, attention should be paid primarily to statistics on the US labour market (traditionally it is published on Friday), the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday (expected to reduce rates by 0.25%), UK GDP on Monday as well as consumer inflation in the Eurozone and US business activity indices.
INDEX:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump, Sino & Johnson resignStatement by US President Donald Trump that the agreement with China could be concluded “earlier than you think.” let to the volatility on the financial markets as well as gold. Considering that in the last six months there has been more than enough speculation on the topic of negotiations between the US and China, we have not rushed to draw conclusions and work not with rumours, but with facts. The facts are no specifics will appear before October. So lower gold value yesterday is a great opportunity to buy it today. But, of course, we do not forget to set up relatively “hard” stops for purchases and watch the news. British Pounds lost a half and a hundred points to the US Dollar. The reason was the growth of uncertainty around Brexit, a potential domestic political crisis and the general confusion of the country's politics. The fact is that after the Parliament, according to the decision of the Supreme Court, returned to work (3 weeks ahead of schedule), Johnson's chances of resolving the situation with Brexit until October 31 sharply decreased. And the British opposition, meanwhile, is waiting for the moment to strike ( a vote of no confidence in Johnson and his resignation). The most successful moment for the attack will be on October 17 at the end of the EU summit. If it becomes clear that there is no agreement between the EU and Great Britain, Johnson will receive his vote on a vote of confidence. So, why the pound is falling is clear - Britain is sinking deeper into the chaos of uncertainty. For our part, we will continue to buy the pound, as current events practically negate the option of “hard” Brexit. Another scenario is the next postponement of Brexit, a new referendum, new elections, etc. - Which is a positive sign the pound (in the context of Brexit). If the pound reacted with dropping against the backdrop of political news yesterday, the dollar was growing. The scandal surrounding Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky is intensifying. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would begin formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Against such a background, recommending buying a dollar would be strange. So we will continue to look for points for the dollar sale. Another important news for the dollar will be the publication of statistics on US GDP for the second quarter. But we draw the attention of our readers that this is the final reading. Accordingly, the probability of any surprises is small. That is, support for the dollar should not be expected. But a revision even insignificant in the direction of reduction may be the last drop that will overfill the markets patience. In the oil market, everything is developing accordance with our forecasts a decline in oil. Saudi Arabia will return to its usual volumes production ahead of schedule. At the moment, production has already reached 11.3 million bpd (a week ahead of schedule). So the incident with a drone attack and a sharp drop in oil supply is over. The price of oil, as we predicted a week ago, returned to levels before the drone attack. As for the future, the accumulated inertia may well be enough to reduce oil. So our position has reached its planned goal, as a whole remains unchanged - we give preference to oil sales. But now you need to do this more carefully. Especially in light of the news that Saudi Aramco plans to go public IPO next month. That is, attempts at price manipulations in the oil market shortly are more than likely.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: USDTRY Makes A Difference! EURGBP How Much More Down?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURGBP and #USDRY #EURO and #POUND pressured from Stronger DOLLAR: - Following Trump transcript release - Partial deal with Japan - Close US-Sino deal Trump comment - ECB's Germans board member quitting #EURO also pressured from: - Spanish PPI - US-EU tensions - EU-UK tensions #POUND also pressured from: - BoJo's comment to leave whatever it takes #TurksishLira supported by: - Weaker oil - Positive sentiment after IMF report Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Sep19,Wk3A bearish shark setup for a selling opportunity in this trend trading setup. A shark pattern can have up to 3 entry price so is important that you have learned it right. I may not engage directly and need further confirmation. Before market close GBP related pairs appreciate across the board, have to have some read up on Brexit related news to check on the development. Is either you pay a little to a good coach or pay a hell lot to the market and you may not figure it out, your choice.
Short
by RaynLim
Britain & US "race to the top” eventfull countryThe Supreme Court has ruled that Boris Johnson suspended UK Parliament unlawfully. Also, Johnson gave the Queen illegal advice to suspend Parliament. On the one hand, the news is not good for the pound, because it means another domestic political crisis, on the other hand, such a court decision should lead to Johnson's resignation. The pound has recently followed the rule "what is bad for Johnson, good for the pound." So from this point of view, yesterday's pound growth just looks very logical. The weakening of Johnson’s position means a chances decrease of a “hard” Brexit. For the pound, of course, the news is exceptionally positive. So we will continue to observe with interest the chaos in Britain, but at the same time, our recommendation to “buy a pound” does not lose its relevance. However, you need to be careful. It is worth noting buyers activation of the euro against the statistics background from Germany. Indices of economic expectations from the IFO came out better than expected at fairly good marks. However, it is still too early to rejoice. Rather, this growth provides an opportunity for euro sales at relatively good prices. Yesterday the US dollar was under pressure in the afternoon. Weak consumer confidence data is the reason for that. Conference Board consumer confidence index showed a value of 125.1 with a forecast of 133.0 in September. Our recommendation on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for the dollar sale. Moreover, the scandal surrounding Trump Zelensky’s call seems to be gaining momentum. The chances are low, but buying a dollar against such a background is still extremely dangerous, especially considering its current prices. Yesterday, the markets were reassured by the news that China guaranteed the American soybeans purchase at no additional cost. What can be seen as a kind of positive signal on the eve of the main meeting between the US and China next week. However, judging by the dynamics of gold, investors prefer to believe the facts. Accordingly, we do not observe serious threats to our recommendations to buy gold in the area of local daily lows. Moreover, Trump once again made it tenser. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, he accused China of a good half of mortal sins. There are no major changes in the oil market so far. Fears of another hurricane in the United States, expectations of recovery in Saudi production, as well as developments around Iran. Well, in the meantime, oil prices follow in the direction we have indicated. Recall from last Tuesday, after an increase of 15% last Monday, we recommend selling oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx