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CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go. There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top: May 2025 **Volume Flow**: 1157 Days **From June Bottom**: 1064 days **ETH clear bottom**: June 2022 **Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom **221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May. September 2025 **From November Bottom**: 1064 days **Major Macro Time Fibonacci** **Chainlink Fractal** **Chainlink Time Fib** March 2025 **Small Time Fibonacci** **Bull Flag End** **Average % move and time since 2019** As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025. --- May 2025 Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May. Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom. The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022. If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May. For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May. ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May. So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin. --- September/October 2025 1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025. For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart. As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022. I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025. Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025. --- March 2025 This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction. A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal. 240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025. A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025. --- Elliott Wave Section I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes. Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5? Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market? The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days. Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k. --- ### **Price Targets If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021. If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025. As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows. --- Pi Cycle Indicator If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross. --- Conclusion We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be. This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
BNC:BLXLong
by Sporia
12
$BTC: are we at the peak of this bull run?The chart says yes, and here’s the breakdown of my analysis: - **MACD on Weekly**: Overheated. The last time this happened was in June, and it led to a six-month consolidation with a -30% dump. - **RSI**: Overbought. Same story—this signals consolidation, but since we’re on the weekly timeframe, it’s going to drag on for a while. - **Daily Indicators**: Also overheated! This is double trouble. It means we’re likely to see a significant dump until the daily indicators reset at the bottom. Now, here’s the kicker: **everything in this cycle is messed up by the ETF FOMO.** - We’ve already passed the previous ATH *before* the halving—something that’s never happened before. This suggests a short-lived bull market is highly probable. - **Alt season? Canceled.** Bitcoin is hogging all the attention, news, and institutional money. Altcoins are sitting in the corner, forgotten like last year’s Christmas sweater. To be clear, I’m not saying we’re headed into a four-year bear market. But the traditional halving cycle? It’s over. - The halving doesn’t have the same impact anymore because miners no longer contribute significant sell pressure. - Instead, we’re looking at **six-month cycles**: alternating between FOMO rallies and consolidations, driven by weekly timeframes and the MACD. If this idea holds true, we’ll see a reset of all indicators by June, followed by a six-month rally for BTC. Altcoins might tag along, but don’t expect a classic alt season. The ETFs aren’t here to rotate money—they’re here to park it in BTC and ETH. And the altcoins? They’ll starve. Buckle up; it’s going to be an ETF-dominated ride! 🚀
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
3
Bitcoin Dips to $96K Amid MARA and Hut 8’s Major Accumulation SpBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the flagship cryptocurrency, faced a notable price dip to $96,300, reflecting a 6% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this, significant institutional purchases by MARA Holdings and Hut 8 highlight the growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. Institutional Accumulation on the Rise MARA recently purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529 per Bitcoin, totaling $1.53 billion. This acquisition, financed through zero-coupon convertible notes, has increased their holdings to 44,394 BTC, worth $4.45 billion at current prices. MARA’s year-to-date BTC yield stands at an impressive 60.9%, underscoring their strategic accumulation approach. Another institutional player, Hut 8, announced the purchase of 990 BTC for $100 million. These acquisitions demonstrate that major players view current prices as an attractive entry point, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value. Market Sentiment and Activity Despite the dip, CryptoQuant reports no signs of widespread panic selling. This indicates resilience among market participants, with many holding firm in anticipation of a rebound. Additionally, Bitcoin remains 4.59% up in December and 60% up over the past four months, reflecting its strong performance in the broader macroeconomic environment. Technical Analysis 1. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at 35, signaling oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded a price rebound. 2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Immediate support is observed at the 65% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone that could stabilize the price. However, persistent selling pressure might push Bitcoin lower, with potential targets at: - $90,000 (1-month low) - $80,000 (key psychological level) 3. Volume and Liquidations: Over $100 million in liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, suggesting significant market volatility. Short-Term Outlook While the dip has raised concerns, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by robust institutional demand. The oversold technical conditions and significant support levels suggest a potential recovery in the coming days. However, traders should remain cautious, as further dips could occur if broader market conditions deteriorate. Conclusion Bitcoin’s dip to $96K reflects short-term volatility, but the sustained interest from institutional players like MARA and Hut 8 underscores its long-term potential. As market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could see renewed bullish momentum, making this an opportune moment for investors to assess their strategies.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin BEARISH - BTC Strong Resistance On Weekly TFBitcoin has reached strong resistance on the weekly TF. The resistance line goes the whole way back to 2017. So it's very reliable. A strong move downwards is very likely! Based on previous times this line was tested, Bitcoin could fall 50% or more. However, the 74000-75000 level looks like a good support level. This would be about a 30% drop which is still very significant. I expect profit taking very soon and short sellers to come in. There could possibly even be global headline news to cause this drop. Be very careful in buying near the tops. Trade with your brain and not emotions. This is only an idea and anything can happen, but it's a weekly chart and seems very reliable.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EACoders
1
BTCUSD: The phenomenal Fib power of +.618.Bitcoin quickly turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.454, MACD = 3285.300, ADX = 32.138) as in a matter of 24 hours it dropped from its 108,000 ATH back to below 100,000. As the price continues to grow, we should start getting used to those 10k violent price swings. Today though, we want to discuss an incredible finding, which we call ' the Fib power of 0.618'. It is this amazing pattern you see where Bitcoin, since its Nov 2022 bottom and subsequent Jan 2023 High, it has systematically targeted every +0.618 Fibonacci extension before pulling back. 1st TP was Fib 1.618, 2nd TP = Fib 2.168, 3rd TP = Fib 3.618. Natually this sequence targets next: 4th TP = Fib 4.618 (112,500), 5th TP = Fib 5.618 (173,500) and finally 6th TP = Fib 6.618 (265,000). Of course this assumes that the trend will follow the same fluid pattern, where the first of the Fib pairs has only a short consolidation (green Rectangle) leading to a fast rise to the second Fib, which has a long consolidation (blue Rectangle). This implies that we're currently inside a short consolidation an in April we should hit 112,500 (5th TP on Fib 5.618). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart analysis. BTC/USDT trades within an ascending parallel channel, respecting the upper and lower trendlines. Current price: $99,789.68, retracing back towards a crucial support area. The highlighted green area is around $98,000-$100,000, which acts as the channel’s demand zone and mid-range level. 200 MA (green line): Located near $97,830, providing dynamic support. Immediate resistance near the upper channel trendline (~$110,000). Psychological resistance at $105,000, a crucial round-number level. If BTC maintains the $98,000-$100,000 support area, it is set to bounce towards: Short-term target: $105,000. Mid-term target: $110,000, aligned with the upper channel boundary. If BTC breaks below $98,000, further declines to test $95,000 (lower trend line) are possible. A breakdown below the channel will invalidate the bullish trend. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. For updates on other coins or personalized insights, feel free to reach out via DM. @Peter_CSAdmin
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
Is BTC in a accumulation phase?Bitcoin is in an 7K (about 35%) range since 150 days now, and just broke to the downside. Could this be the spring of an Wyckoff accumulation schematic? It is no secret that price action has been choppy ever since it entered the trade range, has to shake most people out. Of course, for this to be an spring we'd need big buyers stepping in, and defying all of the sell volume we've seen so far. On the other hand, bulls already had absord a lot of BTC sell order and could therefore mean price is near a reversal. Price could of course(inevitably in the bull case) retest the price range and fade of to fresh lows. It is also no secret that BTC is highly correlated to traditional markets. It would therefore make sense for both markets to bottom at somewhat the same time. But with everything we've seen, it could be possible for BTC to mark a bottom now and see price suppression while the DJI, NASDAQ and SPX mark their bottoms in. It is also an great idea to keep in mind that price tend to move again the masses, and with the FTX/ALAMEDA illiquidity situation, everyone is scared and calling for lower lows. This is only an gut feeling based on market sentiment right now and only support the unprobability that market would reverse(while everyone is bearish). Next days/weeks are gonna determine the direction ahead for BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by etiennemyette