BTC flush plan: Scampendemic BTC long-term plan
I call this a scampendemic pattern chart.
Brought to you by BlackRock on a bigger scale.
Summary:
Short-term we have to test 62-63k then further move up until we break that 70k
The best scenario is that they cause euphoria on reaching a new ATH. So I assume around 78-79k peak, then the big flush correction starts. Also, from 31/10 to mid-November, we reach the blow-off phase in timing analysis. In this phase, we will see alts doing big pumps and BTC in the range of 70k zone with new ATH around 78-79k. Then, the crash starts on the
29K—36k zone, and then the super cycle starts.
Simple plan, yet no one will see this is coming.
BTC-D
The role of the StochRSI indicator
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Since the StochRSI indicator creates waves in any case, I think that using the StochRSI indicator can be of great help in predicting fluctuations.
In that sense, we decided to use the StochRSI indicator again in the evaluation items of the BW indicator.
If possible, we plan to finish modifying the indicator with this version.
The indicators used in this BW indicator are MACD, StochRSI, OBV, and ATR.
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(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)
After the price fell after October 20, the StochRSI indicator eventually fell from the overbought zone.
After that, it is rapidly falling below the midpoint (50).
As such, the closer the StochRSI indicator gets to the highest point (100), the higher the possibility of a large fluctuation when falling.
Accordingly, you should check the position when entering the oversold zone or turning upward.
Currently, there is a support and resistance zone formed in the 65568.1-65922.3 zone, so the point to watch is whether it can receive support and rise near this zone.
If it falls below the 65568.1-65922.3 zone, you should check whether it can touch the BW (50) area or the M-Signal area of the 1W chart and rise.
To do so, you should check whether there is support near 61149.5-62839.8.
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If it is supported and rises near the volume profile area of 66750.0,
1st: 67392.1
2nd: 68447.9-69020.1
You should check whether it is supported near the 1st and 2nd above.
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If it touches BW (100) and falls, it is likely to touch BW (0).
However, since it can rebound near BW (50), you can start trading depending on whether there is support near BW (50) for now.
Since the BW (50) point on the 1W chart is formed at the 65568.1 point, when it shows support near 65568.1-65922.3, you should check whether the StochRSI indicator rises above the midpoint (50) and maintains the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA.
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When the StochRSI indicator rises above the midpoint (50), you should start looking for a time to sell, and when it falls below the midpoint (50), you should start looking for a time to buy.
The critical time is when it rises in the oversold zone or falls in the overbought zone.
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Since the StochRSI indicator is showing a faster decline than the price, it seems likely to create a pullback pattern.
If the BW indicator falls below the midpoint (50), the price may plunge, so be careful.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
The real uptrend is expected to start after rising above 29K.
The next bull market is expected to touch 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Bitcoin Forecast 23-Oct-24Bitcoin increased as expected after decisive break above 65400 as specified in my previous report . The Resistance 1 provided around 68500 worked very well and trading down.
21 SMA at 64600 and 64370 (0.618 Fib Retracement)
Further down the 61300 acts crucial support (0.5 Fib Retracement).
Can buy at these support level if bouncing back strongly for target of 73700.
HARMONY ONE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADE PLANE BY BFTechnical Analysis (4-hour chart) + TRADE PLAN by BF
Pattern Identification:
Falling Wedge Formation: The price is moving inside a falling wedge, typically considered a bullish reversal pattern. The wedge has defined support and resistance lines converging as the price moves downward, indicating potential upcoming breakout to the upside.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Level: Around $0.01287, highlighted as a solid base where buyers have historically stepped in.
Resistance Level: Around $0.01528, marking a level where sellers may become more aggressive. This is a significant target if the wedge breaks to the upside.
Volume Analysis:
The volume seems to have been decreasing as the price has been moving within the wedge, which is common before a breakout. A surge in volume will be a strong confirmation of any potential breakout.
Indicators:
VMC Cipher_B Divergences: There are green dots visible at the bottom, indicating possible bullish divergences. These divergences suggest price momentum weakening on the downside, aligning with the falling wedge’s bullish potential.
RSL (Relative Strength Level): The current value is 38.54, below the neutral 50 mark, which indicates bearish momentum. However, it's near the oversold territory, and any uptick from here could support a reversal.
Stochastic RSI: At 5.65/8.79, indicating that the asset is in an oversold condition. This adds to the potential for a bullish reversal once the stochastic begins to turn upwards.
HMA+ Histogram: The current histogram shows a shift toward a neutral or slightly bullish sentiment. The transition from red to green would be a strong indicator to enter long positions.
Time and Potential Breakout Catalyst:
There is a clock icon indicating a potential timing window, which may suggest that the breakout could be imminent. The combination of indicators and the falling wedge pattern suggests that a bullish move could be expected soon.
Trading Plan:
Long Scenario:
Entry Point: A breakout above the wedge's resistance line and a confirmation above $0.01365 with a strong increase in volume.
First Target: $0.01528 (immediate resistance level). This would likely be a conservative target as it corresponds to previous highs and the upper boundary of the range.
Second Target: If the momentum continues strongly, the price could test the next level near $0.01600.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the current support at around $0.01250, to limit downside risk in case of a false breakout.
Short Scenario (Alternative if Breakout Fails):
Entry Point: If price breaks down below $0.01287 and volume increases on the downside.
Target: Look for a decline towards $0.01200, which is a psychological round number and could act as support in a bearish scenario.
Stop Loss: Above $0.01350, as a recovery above this level could negate the bearish breakdown.
Risk Management:
Risk no more than 1-2% of your trading capital per trade.
Wait for clear confirmations such as volume spikes or candlestick pattern validation before entering trades.
Harmony (ONE) is showing signs of potential bullish reversal with the falling wedge pattern supported by multiple indicators pointing towards oversold conditions. However, waiting for a breakout confirmation is essential before entering long positions. Proper risk management and trade discipline should be applied to navigate potential volatility.
GOATSEUS MAXIMUS NO. 1 MEME COIN ATMTechnical Analysis + trade plan by Blaž Fabjan
Rising Wedge Pattern
A Rising Wedge is identified on the chart, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis. This indicates that the price could experience a short-term decline once the wedge breaks downwards, which is consistent with the message on the chart indicating a potential short-term decline.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support Level: $0.18047 (Key support zone where price could potentially rebound or consolidate).
Resistance Levels:
$0.58642: This level is a key point to watch for short-term profit-taking if the price rises.
$0.99652: Long-term potential target for new All-Time High (ATH) based on the pattern after the short-term decline.
Volume Analysis
The Volume (GOAT) is showing 909.922K, suggesting strong interest and participation at the current price range.
Volume needs to increase significantly to confirm any breakout from the wedge, either upward or downward.
Divergence (VMC B Divergences)
The chart shows the VMC B Divergences, indicating potential early signs of price reversal. Negative divergence here could indicate that momentum is weakening and aligns with the expectation of a short-term drop.
RSI and Stochastic RSI
RSI (14 period): 56.43 – This shows that the price is in a neutral zone, not overbought or oversold.
Stochastic RSI (14, 1, 3): 94.16 – Indicates that the price is in the overbought zone, which could signal a pullback soon, especially as it is above 80.
Hull Moving Average Histogram (HMA Hist)
HMA Hist: It’s slightly negative (-0.00315), which can indicate early bearish momentum, supporting the idea of a short-term price decline.
Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Short-Term Decline and Rebound (Rising Wedge Breakdown)
Entry:
If the price breaks below the rising wedge, consider entering a short position around $0.50-$0.52, aiming for a decline towards the support level of $0.18047.
Confirmation of the breakdown would be further decline in RSI below 50 and volume spikes on red candles.
Profit Target:
First profit target is around $0.18047 (support level), which offers a significant risk-to-reward ratio.
Stop-Loss:
Place a stop-loss just above the resistance at $0.58642 to limit potential losses in case of a sudden upward breakout.
Indicators to Watch:
Watch for a change in the RSI back towards 30-40 during the pullback, which could indicate oversold conditions and a potential reversal.
Scenario 2: Upward Breakout After Decline (ATH Target)
Entry:
After the expected decline, if the price finds support near $0.18047 and starts forming a bullish reversal pattern (like a double bottom or hammer candle), look to enter a long position.
Profit Target:
First target is $0.58642, and the second is $0.99652 for a potential new all-time high (ATH).
Stop-Loss:
For the long position, place a stop-loss just below $0.18047 to protect against further downside risk.
Indicators to Watch:
Watch for RSI moving above 50 again and a bullish crossover in Stochastic RSI to confirm the bullish momentum shift.
Risk Management
Risk per Trade: Limit risk to 1-2% of total trading capital.
Position Sizing: Adjust position size based on stop-loss distance and desired risk tolerance.
Summary
Short-Term View: Price could decline after breaking down from the rising wedge, aiming for the support at $0.18047.
Long-Term View: After the expected short-term decline, a bullish reversal could target a new ATH at $0.99652, provided volume and momentum confirm the breakout.
Need to check support and resistance zones
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The HA-High indicator is being created at the 67414.39 point, showing support.
Therefore, the key is whether it can be supported around 67074.14-67414.39 and rise above 68955.88.
If not,
1st: 65920.71
2nd: 61099.25-62540.0
You need to check whether there is support around the 1st and 2nd above.
Currently, the M-Signal indicator of the 1D chart is passing near 65920.71, and the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is passing near 62540.0.
Therefore, whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd is meaningful in terms of the trend.
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When drawing a trend line, the point that the arrow points to corresponds to the point selected when drawing the trend line.
The points 1 and 2 indicated on the StochRSI indicator are inflection points that do not enter the overbought or oversold zone, so they are not used when drawing the trend line.
You can display the volatility period according to the currently drawn trend line and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
For the reason for selecting the volatility period, please refer to the part indicated by the circle.
Accordingly, the volatility period is around October 25, October 30, and November 12.
The volatility period I mentioned is just for explanation.
In reality, we need trend lines drawn from the past on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
The importance of trend lines is in the order of 1M > 1W > 1D chart trend lines.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K.
The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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XAU/BTC - Gold and Bitcoin outlook for next 6 months ?GOLD & BITCOIN OUTLOOK
for the ppl saying that TVC:GOLD is outperforming CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Well... not really as you can see at a relatively big timeframe on this XAU/BTC chart
what is happening now ? well XAU had a rebound mid March, making a +66% pullback, it seems a lot but as you can see during august 2020 it felt 85% !
1. made it to the previous resistance quite hardly, first sign about the bearish approach that could arrive
2. we are now around , in fact around a very hot zone, 0.4 , if we go above, more chance to see bullish moves in this chart, meaning that Gold could go more up and/or Btc could go more down, its a weekly timeframe so, im talking about a 6 months move
BUT, I think XAU/BTC will not be able to pass that resistance and will in fact go big red candles till spring
3. if you look at what happened 4 years ago just copy paste it now, you should have a view of the next 5-6 months for both assets
Not saying that gold is gonna plummet and XAU/BTC will go -85% this time but it should bring it a bit down, as in august 2020 it was also going parabolic and went -20% in 6 months
so yes im expecting gold to go -20% during the 6 next months and of course BTC to go UPPPPPP
so if they're one thing to retain here, its that Gold seems now inversely linked to the 4 years BTC cycle ! And this is quite interesting because it means that BTC has a lot more power and influence than people think
Cheers & thx for reading
BOME Long Position (Retest of 21-day EMA)Market Context: BOME is approaching the 21-day EMA after a Market Structure Shift (MSS). We're looking for a retest of the trend to form a higher low, while sweeping liquidity at the $0.075 level. This provides a potential opportunity for entry.
Trade Setup:
Entry: $0.007 - $0.008
Take Profit:
First target: $0.012
Second target: $0.016
Third target: $0.020
Stop Loss: Daily close below $0.006
This setup seeks to capture the bounce from the higher low, capitalizing on the anticipated continuation of the uptrend. #BOME #Crypto #MarketStructure #21EMA #Trading
RNDR Long Position (Accumulation Phase)Market Context: RNDR has been through an extended markdown phase, with market makers taking profits, driving prices down to fair value. Now, the market appears to be in an accumulation phase, where most of the weak hands have exited. This creates an opportunity for strategic entry, positioning for the next bullish move.
Trade Setup:
Entry: $4.70 - $5.30
Take Profit:
First target: $6.30
Second target: $7.50
Third target: $9.00
Stop Loss: Daily close below $4.50
This trade aims to capitalize on the potential accumulation phase as RNDR prepares for a possible move higher. #RNDR #Crypto #Accumulation #PriceAction #Trading
Bitcoin is bullish HTF, but short TF correction inevitable
BTC closed last week above July weekly swing close 🔥 Multiple RSI on Month TF also shows bullishness, similar to what it had on March 2023 (after that BTC started it's bull run for ~278%). This chart is bullish, so whatever I write about pullbacks/dips, remember - I mean short term price action that is for buying.
Bitcoin dips to 65500-66500 and bounce back fast should be taken as a fast bullish scenario. That would allow to add more to longs in both BTC and alts. The zone for potential wicks is around 63.5-64.5k - not sure how high are the chances for such a dip, but since it will surely bring panic to the market, it is absolutely possible.
🚨 CRYPTO REVOLUTION: 0.5 BITCOIN FOR KEFIR 💊 PART 3📣 Hello everyone!
I believe that we are witnessing a global uptrend in the ETH/VTC trading pair and the value of Ether in relation to Bitcoin should grow over time.
In May 2017, the first wave of the cycle ended, then in September 2019, the correction in the wave of the II cycle ended, after which the long-term impulse wave of the III cycle started.
In the wave of the III cycle, an impulse wave has already passed at the primary level, and at the moment the market is busy forming a wave of correction of the primary level. I expect the correction to end at 0.037 minimum in July 2024, maximum in September 2025.
After the correction is completed, according to the logic I have built, a long-term uptrend should begin, the minimum goal of which will be 0.55 Ether per Bitcoin coin.
⚠️ Think for yourself, decide for yourself - good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit ✊
Goodbye!
DOGE COIN SWING LONG IDEA - MEMECOIN - ALTCOIN DOGE coin is the leader of the meme sector in crypto, and it’s sometimes directly supported by Elon Musk. That’s why I’m keeping an eye on this coin.
The price is coming from a monthly demand zone, where it got rejected and has since started a weekly bullish momentum. Both the weekly and daily upward momentum are strong, suggesting the price could be heading toward new highs, in my opinion.
We might see some retracement before it rallies all the way up, but that may not happen either.
10/22 Triple divergence is playing out. How deep?Overview:
The AMEX:SPY closed down by only 0.16%, despite opening lower than Friday’s close. During the second trading hour, the index dropped 0.5% but managed to recover the losses throughout the day. Only a few AMEX:SPY stocks ended in the green, with Nvidia gaining 4.14%. Despite this minor pullback, the index has seen six consecutive weeks of growth, and one red weekly candle wouldn't derail a bull run that has gained 23% since the start of the year.
The tech-heavy NASDAQ:QQQ also closed in the green, up 0.19%, thanks to Nvidia’s boost.
The U.S. Leading Indicator Index (LEI) fell by 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a steeper decline than the expected -0.3% and more significant than the -0.2% drop in August, according to The Conference Board’s report on Monday. From March through September 2024, the LEI dropped 2.6%, exceeding the 2.2% decline in the previous six-month period.
"Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid."
This index has been decreasing since March 2022, and Monday’s reading officially places it below its lowest point during the COVID-19 period in April 2020. However, the rate of decline appears to be slowing.
Meanwhile, companies are still reporting better-than-expected earnings. Some well-known names reporting today include GE Aerospace (Boeing's engine supplier), Philip Morris, Verizon, General Motors, 3M, Enphase, and Invesco (owners of the QQQ ETF).
The CME Watch Tool now shows an 11.1% chance of no rate cut on November 7th, up from last week’s 9.3%.
While BTC dropped 2.40% on Monday, BlackRock still bought $329 million worth of BTC ETFs. It’s almost amusing to think that BlackRock could be acting as someone’s exit liquidity. The firm now owns 362,192 bitcoins, valued at $23.169 billion.
BTC TA:
W: Unfortunately for the bulls, BTC closed last week at $69k, which is below the highs of the last two bullish waves in late March and early June.
D: Monday ended with a 2.40% correction—much needed after last week's strong rally. A timely release of pressure increases the likelihood of the bull run continuing. An important level to maintain is $66.9k, as it’s the point of control for this recent rally starting from October 10th. The next support levels are $65.8k and the key yearly support at $62.7k. Breaking below $62.7k would invalidate the current bullish wave. On the bearish side, Monday’s candle engulfed the previous five trading days (including the weekend). Before the pullback, the RSI hit 70.
4h: As we spotted and wrote about in our previous letter - the 4-hour chart showed MACD, CVD, and RSI divergences, with three consecutive declining peaks as the price continued climbing. The correction began on Sunday evening, and it may take more than a day to fully play out. The key level to hold now is $66.8k—if it breaks, the price may fall to the daily level of $65.8k. So far, it’s holding.
1h: The 1-hour chart looks bullish, as the $66.9k level is holding, with some bullish MACD and RSI divergence showing.
Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR have not declined as much as BTC. However, SUI has dropped more significantly by 5%, and TAO by 9%. APT is unexpectedly pumping, while DOGE is up by 27.30%. Seems like alts are diverging from BTC correction. At least the aren't collapsing 7 - 10%, which was the case in the past with BTC falling by 2.4%.
Bull Case: BTC could be correcting slightly before resuming the bull run. If a recession is avoided, Trump wins the election, and rates are cut, the outlook remains positive.
Bear Case: BTC may have reached an old resistance level without breaking it, confirming it as a solid resistance, and initiating a deeper correction.
Fear and Greed Index: The index is back to Neutral at 57, down from the Greed territory of 60 over the weekend.
BTC/USDT Analysis - 4H TimeframeBTC/USDT Analysis - 4H Timeframe
Author: Rhino aka Bear ( Crypto Rado )
Date: 10/22/2024
🔹 Overview:
Bitcoin has reached the anticipated upper trendline, facing rejection at $69,800. A double bearish divergence on the 4H timeframe signals that this impulsive move has likely peaked. The price briefly broke above the previous high but quickly dropped by $3,000, landing on the monthly pivot point and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, leading to a small bounce.
🔹 Current Expectation:
I anticipate a retest of the $68,000–$68,500 zone before the downtrend continues toward $65,500–$65,000. This next key support area is reinforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci level, S1 pivot, and significant price action. The Simple Moving Average is also moving toward this zone, making it a confluence area of interest.
So far, the price has made an impulsive five-wave move downward, followed by a corrective ABC structure. Waves A and B appear complete, and we are likely in wave C, heading for the $68,000–$68,500 zone. If this zone fails, we may see a move towards $48,000, $44,000, or even $40,000. However, it's too early to confirm a full bearish reversal at this point.
🔹 Key Levels:🔹
Resistance Zone: $68,000–$68,500
TP 1: $65,500–$65,000
TP 2: $62.9 - 61.3k
Invalidation: 69.6k
Next Potential Targets (Bearish): $48,000 / $44,000 / $40,000
🚨 Disclaimer:🚨
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and assess the risks before trading.⚠️
BTC - Bearish Short-Term...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉After breaking below the previous low of $68,000 (marked in red), BTC's momentum shifted from bullish to bearish in the short term.
The question is: until when or where?
As long as the bears remain in control, the next major support zone that could hold BTC up is the $63,000 demand zone.
📈Around that demand zone, we will monitor price action and look for bullish setups to confirm a potential reversal.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich