BTC Bitcoin Brief Rise, But Correction LoomsIf you haven`t sold the top on Bitcoin:
Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate cut approaches, the market is bracing for potential volatility, and Bitcoin could be no exception. While many expect a modest 25 basis point cut, a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction is also on the table. This larger-than-expected move could trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario, affecting not only traditional assets like the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) but also risk assets like Bitcoin.
Initially, Bitcoin may see a slight uptick in price at the beginning of next week. This short-term rise could be fueled by optimism and increased demand for alternative assets as the market digests the Fed's decision. Bitcoin has historically benefited from periods of loose monetary policy, and in the immediate aftermath of the rate cut, it might experience some buying pressure.
However, this rally could be short-lived. With broader markets such as SPY and QQQ expected to correct following the Fed decision, Bitcoin is likely to follow suit. Given its high correlation with risk-on assets during periods of market stress, Bitcoin may see a sharp pullback as traditional equity markets start to sell off. Traders could also unwind their positions in Bitcoin alongside stocks, leading to a broader market correction in both traditional and crypto assets.
In the short term, a Fed rate cut that exceeds expectations might signal concerns about the underlying economy, leading to heightened volatility across the board. As risk appetite wanes, Bitcoin's upward momentum could quickly reverse, aligning with the expected correction in SPY and QQQ.
Buy!
RUT2K Short-Term Selloff Likely After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven’t seen my RUT 2000 prediction for 2024:
Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision looms, speculation is rising that we may see a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically a positive for equities, this aggressive move could lead to a short-term selloff, particularly in smaller-cap stocks, represented by the RUT Russell 2000.
The reasoning is tied to the market's well-known "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior. With expectations already priced in for a 25 bps cut, a surprise 50 bps cut could trigger concerns over economic health, prompting investors to de-risk. This would likely lead to a temporary selloff in riskier, smaller-cap stocks, with RUT2K potentially taking a hit in the near term.
Given this outlook, I’m considering the $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024. These options could provide a solid hedge or a potential profit opportunity if the market reacts negatively to the Fed’s decision in the short term, as I expect smaller-cap stocks to feel the pressure more acutely than large-cap counterparts.
Despite this expected volatility, the broader market should recover before the end of the month, once investors fully digest the news. By November 5th, on U.S. election day, we could even see new all-time highs in major indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Small caps, however, may take longer to rebound, adding further value to a short-term put position in IWM.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears motivated to support a strong market ahead of the elections, which could benefit Democrats. Former President Donald Trump has indicated he would not reappoint Powell if he returns to office, potentially giving Powell incentive to maintain market stability leading up to November.
In summary, while a larger-than-expected rate cut could cause IWM ( Russell 2000 ETF ) to face short-term turbulence, the market will likely stabilize by the end of September. The $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, offer a timely opportunity for traders seeking to capitalize on this brief volatility.
QQQ Short-Term Selloff After the Fed's Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip in QQQ:
Then you need to know that as we approach the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision this week, there is growing speculation that the central bank may implement a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut, instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically viewed as bullish for markets, this unexpected move could trigger a short-term selloff, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the QQQ.
Why? The market tends to operate on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality. Investors have already priced in expectations of a modest 25 bps cut, so if the Fed delivers a more aggressive 50 bps cut, it may signal heightened concern over economic conditions, causing traders to pull back. Such a scenario could spook the market, leading to a temporary selloff in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
In light of this, it may be worth considering a bearish strategy for the short term. Specifically, the $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could be a prudent option, as they stand to gain value in the event of a selloff following the Fed decision. The short-term market reaction could make these puts a strategic play for traders anticipating a dip.
While the reaction to the Fed decision could be sharp in the short term, it’s unlikely to be long-lasting. Market participants will soon digest the news, and I expect a recovery by the end of the month. In fact, by November 5th—U.S. election day—we could see new all-time highs in both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been keen on maintaining market stability, which could give the Democrats a slight edge in the upcoming elections. After all, former President Donald Trump has stated he wouldn’t reappoint Powell if re-elected, possibly adding a political dimension to the Fed’s moves.
In conclusion, while the QQQ might face near-term turbulence due to the Fed’s potentially larger-than-expected rate cut, the broader market is likely to recover soon, with tech stocks regaining their upward momentum as the election approaches. The $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could serve as a timely hedge during this brief period of volatility.
FDX FedEx Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought FDX before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of FDX FedEx Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 270usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-9-20,
for a premium of approximately $4.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
USOIL Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 68.33.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 71.84 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
VFS VinFast Auto Options Ahead of EarningsIf you didn’t short VFS before the major selloff:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of VFS VinFast Auto prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 5usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $1.97.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
BITCOIN Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 58,303.48.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 59,388.57.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
VIX BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
VIX downtrend evident from the last 1W red candle makes longs trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 22.04 area still presents a good opportunity for us to buy the pair because the support line is nearby and the BB lower band is close which indicates the oversold state of the VIX pair.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
EURUSD Hits Resistance, Risk of Decline to 1.10000 USDEURUSD is trading around 1.10756 USD after hitting resistance at 1.10934 USD and showing signs of a correction.
If the price fails to break through the descending resistance, the pair may drop to the support level of 1.10000 USD.
The EMA 34 and EMA 89 support the short-term uptrend, but downward pressure is increasing.
If the 1.10000 USD support holds, EURUSD could recover.
News from the ECB and U.S. economic data will play a crucial role in EURUSD's next moves.
Gold Hits Record High Above 2,570 USDXAUUSD is trading around 2,578 USD after breaking through a key resistance level.
The upward trend remains strong with solid support at 2,560 USD.
There is a possibility of a pullback to this support zone before continuing the rise toward 2,612 USD.
In terms of news: The 10-year US Treasury yield remains in the red, below 3.7%, as markets reassess the likelihood of significant Fed rate cuts, which is boosting XAUUSD higher.
EUR/USD: Recovery or Further Decline?The current EUR/USD chart shows a positive trend with important test points, but even though it is moving in a fairly stable pattern, the market's hesitation can provide opportunities for investors to pay attention.
On the daily chart, EUR/USD has demonstrated its ability to maintain levels above two moving averages (EMA 34 and EMA 89), a positive sign that shows the strength of the current trend. However, there are also signs of hesitation with recent candles being small and having long shadows, indicating uncertainty in the market.
Investors and traders should closely watch the support level at 1.10750, where a resumption of the uptrend could be confirmed if the price breaks through this level convincingly. The key resistance on the upside is at 1.1100, a level that could test the resolve of buyers in the coming period.
Gold Knocks on New Highs: What Does It Mean for Investors?In the recent trading session, gold prices recorded a strong growth, breaking through several important resistance levels, and are now approaching the new red resistance zone on the chart. With this increase, gold prices have the potential to challenge higher levels in the near future, supported by several technical and macro factors.
The 34 EMA and 89 EMA are both showing bullish trends as they maintain an upward slope. The position of gold prices above both these EMAs is a sign of a sustainable uptrend that could continue.
The current red area on the chart marks a major resistance level that gold prices need to overcome to continue the uptrend. A successful breakthrough of this level could lead to a new bullish phase, while a failure could trigger a price correction.
NASDAQ=> Breakout, 19900 next?Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NASDAQ for a buying opportunity around 19300 zone, NASDAQ was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 19300 support and resistance zone. Once we get any bullish confirmation a decent target will be 19900 as it's considered the next major resistance NASDAQ will be facing.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Will Grow! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.101.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.104 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USD/JPY Falls Below 141.00 Due to Fed-BoJ Policy DivergenceUSDJPY is in a downtrend, trading around 140.908 after breaking the support level at 139.530.
The EMA 34 and 89 lines indicate that selling pressure remains dominant. If the price rebounds from this support, the short-term target will be 142.062. Otherwise, if the support breaks, the price may drop to 138.145.
Regarding news: USD/JPY continued to weaken below 141.00 in Friday's Asian session, driven by the policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ, which supported the Yen. Attention now shifts to U.S. sentiment data.
Gold Near 2,570 USD Peak, Potential for Strong Future GrowthGold is currently trading near an all-time high of 2,570 USD after a strong rally, driven by increased expectations of significant rate cuts from the Fed.
The EMA 34 and 89 lines indicate that the uptrend is still intact, but a short-term correction is possible.
Key support lies between 2,501 USD and 2,521 USD, where investors may look for buying opportunities.
According to my technical analysis, gold prices could continue to rise towards the next target of 2,618 USD.
AUDCAD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around 0.90900 zone, AUDCAD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.90900 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bullish Opportunity Upon Breaking Fibonacci ResistanceThe current EUR/USD chart shows important reaction levels using Fibonacci levels, which paints a notable technical picture for traders interested in the pair.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level ($1.10758) is the key resistance level that the price needs to overcome to confirm the uptrend. This level has seen some market reactions, and if overcome, the price could potentially move towards $1.11540 and $1.11929.
The 0.5 Fibonacci level ($1.10620) is now an important support level. Stability above this level could be seen as a basis for further upside. This level could also be seen as an entry point for traders who are optimistic about the pair's upside potential.
Looking to the downside, the support at $1.10034 is the latest low and the level to watch if the downtrend resumes. A break below this level could indicate that the bears are in control and pose a serious challenge for the bulls to hold the price higher.
Recommended Strategy: Traders should consider buying if the price firmly breaks above $1.10758 with short-term targets at $1.11540 and $1.11929, while placing a stop-loss below the $1.10034 support to limit risk if the market does not move as expected.
USDCHF Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.85200 zone, USDCHF was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.85200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
XRP Short Term Price TargetIf you haven`t bought the dip on XRP:
Now you need to know that Ripple’s XRP is showing bullish potential, buoyed by its partial legal victory in July 2023. The court's ruling that only institutional sales of XRP were unregistered securities offerings, while programmatic sales to retail investors were not, has given the token a significant boost in confidence. This ruling marks a crucial milestone for Ripple, alleviating some of the regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP in the retail market.
One factor that adds further optimism is the slow nature of the appeals process. With any higher court ruling unlikely before 2025 and a potential Supreme Court decision not expected until 2026 or beyond, Ripple has time to build momentum and solidify its market position.
From a technical perspective, XRP has been forming higher lows, suggesting a strong bullish trendline. With this upward momentum in play, I expect XRP to target $0.64 in the short term. As regulatory clarity continues to develop, XRP could be poised for further growth in the broader crypto landscape.
TON Toncoin Potential Sell-OffIf you haven`t bought TON before the breakout:
Now you need to know that on August 24, 2024, the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by French authorities sent shockwaves through both the platform and its cryptocurrency, Toncoin (TON).
Durov's arrest, reportedly tied to illegal activities on Telegram, has been widely seen as an attack on free speech, which has paradoxically boosted interest in both Telegram and Toncoin.
This spotlight on Durov and his platforms presents both challenges and opportunities.
While the surge in activity signals increased attention, the future is uncertain.
The ongoing investigation and heightened regulatory scrutiny are likely to impact TON's market performance.
Investors and users are closely watching for further legal actions, as they could have significant consequences for Telegram and Toncoin.
With the regulatory landscape in flux, TON remains a risky investment until the legal situation stabilizes.
My price target for TON is $2.15.
XAUUSD Awaits Break of $2,530 Resistance Under CPI PressureXAUUSD is in a mild uptrend, trading around $2,517 with a key resistance level at $2,530.
If the price breaks above this level, the uptrend could continue. However, failure to breach it may lead to a correction toward the $2,501 support level.
The EMA 34 and EMA 89 are still supporting the current uptrend, but if the price falls below them, a downtrend might resume.
U.S. economic news, especially the CPI report, will heavily impact gold prices, as a higher-than-expected inflation rate could strengthen the USD, putting downward pressure on XAUUSD.
NAS100 Is Very Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 19,277.73.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 19,804.81 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!