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Volatile Week for USD/CAD? Volatile Week for USD/CAD? The Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to lower rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate down to 4.25%. This expectation follows a recent CPI report that indicated further easing in core inflation, coupled with weaker labor market data. While a 50-basis point cut seems unlikely, it can't be entirely dismissed. In the July monetary policy meeting, Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that the focus may shift towards supporting economic growth rather than solely controlling inflation. Additionally, Canada's August employment report is set to be released on Friday, coinciding with the US nonfarm payrolls report. This timing could heighten uncertainty and volatility in the USD/CAD pair. A key level to watch will be the 1.3570-1.3600 zone, which previously served as a significant support area. Whether this area will be re-tested remains to be seen.
by BlackBull_Markets
BOC Rate Cut Bets Grow as Loonie Stands Firm R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium S1 1.3718 – 9 August low – Medium S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium We remain in the thick of thin summer trade, something that must be taken into consideration when reflecting on price action. The market has done a good job overall recovering from last Monday’s panic mess and the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not all of that doom and gloom is behind us or just the start to another intense wave of risk off flow. The Canadian Dollar held up rather well on Friday despite the discouraging Canada employment report. The local rate market has now begun to price in the 10% possibility for an even bigger 50 basis point rate cut at the Bank of Canada's next meeting in early September. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement. A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
1
USDCAD Analysis: Anticipating a New Bullish ImpulseUSDCAD is beginning a new bullish impulse after retesting the previous resistance area, which has now transformed into a strong demand zone. This retest is a crucial technical signal, suggesting that the pair is poised for a potential new upward movement. By examining the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we observe that the positioning of large traders supports a bullish outlook for the USD against the Canadian Dollar. This sentiment is further reinforced by our supply and demand analysis, which highlights the demand zone as a key level where buying interest has emerged, providing a foundation for the price to move higher. Seasonality trends also play a significant role in our analysis. Historically, this period of the year tends to favor a stronger USD against the CAD, adding another layer of confidence to our bullish forecast. The confluence of these factors—the retest of the demand zone, favorable COT positioning, and positive seasonality—strengthens our expectation of a sustained upward movement in USDCAD. We are closely monitoring the price action and are prepared to capitalize on this bullish setup. Should the price continue to rise from the current levels, we anticipate further gains. However, it's essential to remain vigilant and adapt to any market changes that might influence our analysis. Additionally, for a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing this expected bullish trend, please follow our detailed analysis on CAD futures provided below. This in-depth analysis will offer insights into the broader market dynamics affecting the Canadian Dollar and support our long position strategy in USDCAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDCAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Key Canadian trading events this week On Friday, alongside the US PCE data release, Canada will publish its Q1 GDP growth figures. Earlier in the week, Canada will also release its producer prices data. Note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures. However, this growth was still insufficient to keep pace with the surging population. Consequently, GDP per capita contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter. Speaking of the Royal Bank of Canada, they will also be reporting its earnings this week, along with other major Canadian banks. Tuesday, May 28 Earnings: Bank of Nova Scotia Wednesday, May 29 Earnings: Bank of Montreal, National Bank, EQB Inc. Thursday, May 30 Earnings: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada Friday, May 31 8:30 a.m. Canada Q1 GDP Earnings: Laurentian Bank, Western Bank The USD/CAD ended its four-day winning streak on Friday, closing down by half a percent at approximately 1.3660. Declining crude oil prices had been putting pressure on the CAD until now. Buyers could step in around this level for a potential bounce back though. Additionally, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2 could influence this pair. Market participants are watching for potential output cut extensions by major producers to address global oversupply concerns and support prices, which might cause hesitation among USD/CAD buyers at the 1.3660 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
CADCHF: Important ZonesTraders, D: 4h: Our strategy for this pair involves positioning our orders strategically below the liquidity hunt. By placing our orders in this manner, we aim to capitalize on potential market movements following the liquidity hunt, maximizing our chances of entering favorable positions. As we await the release of Canadian Retail Sales data, it's crucial to remain mindful of its potential impact on market direction. Should there be any notable surprises in the Retail Sales month-over-month figures, it could prompt shifts in market sentiment. Particularly, figures below -0.2% may pose risks to the current trend, while numbers exceeding 0.3% could warrant reassessment of our current zones. Stay informed and prepared to adjust your trading strategy accordingly based on the outcome of the data release. Best regards,
Long
by AliSignals
Lower Canadian CPI brings interest rate cut closerCANADIAN CPI, OANDA:USDCAD ANALYSIS - Canadian inflation slows more than expected in February – raising USD/CAD - Markets bring a potential BoC cut closer while delaying the onset of Fed cuts - USD/CAD’s bullish response tapered off but pair heads for channel resistance CANADIAN INFLATION SLOWS MORE THAN EXPECTED IN FEBRUARY – RAISING USD/CAD Canadian inflation, both core and headline measures, came in lower than last month's figures. CPI was well below the estimated 3.1% at 2.8%. The core measure reached lows not seen in over two years, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider loosening financial conditions. In comparison to countries with inflation rates of 8% or higher, Canada stands out as a standout performer, as shown in the graph below. Annual Percentage Change in Inflation (CPI) OANDA:USDCAD BULLISH RESPONSE TAPERED OFF BUT PAIR HEADS FOR CHANNEL RESISTANCE USD/CAD continued its bullish momentum after softer inflation data but lost some steam during the New York session. The current upward move was triggered by a bounce off channel support at 1.3420, breaking above the 200-day simple moving average and reaching 1.3500. 1.3500 has previously acted as both support and resistance since October 2022. The current trend aims to test channel resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the major 2020-2022 move (1.3651). However, today's significant upper wick suggests that bulls may need to regroup before pushing higher. Canada has been successful in keeping inflation within the targeted range of 1-3% set by the Bank. Based on implied probabilities from rate markets, the Bank of Canada may need to prepare for a rate cut in June. There is a 62% chance of a cut at that time. The Canadian dollar may face pressure due to consistently low inflation, which could lead to easing monetary policy. On the other hand, market estimates for when the Fed may cut interest rates have been pushed back from June to July. This delay in monetary easing supports the US dollar, as it is expected to have a higher interest rate compared to most G7 currencies for a little longer.
by Xayah_trading
Hut 8 Shuts Down Alberta Bitcoin Mine Amid Energy CrisisHut 8 Mining Corp ( NASDAQ:HUT ), a prominent player in the cryptocurrency mining industry, faces the harsh reality of the energy crisis as it announces the immediate closure of its Bitcoin mining facility in Drumheller, Alberta, Canada. The decision, driven by escalating energy costs and power disruptions, underscores the challenges confronting miners in today's volatile market environment. The Drumheller site, once a cornerstone of Hut 8's ( NASDAQ:HUT ) operations, now symbolizes the struggle against the mounting pressures of the energy crisis. CEO Asher Genoot's acknowledgment of elevated energy costs and voltage issues reflects the harsh economic realities that have forced the company's hand in shutting down operations. In a strategic pivot, Hut 8 plans to relocate its Bitcoin miners to its Medicine Hat facility, seeking refuge in a more stable operating environment. The closure of the Drumheller site echoes broader trends in Alberta's energy landscape, characterized by soaring electricity prices and regulatory scrutiny over cryptocurrency mining projects. The province's 1,000% increase in electricity prices since 2017, coupled with government concerns over power usage, has cast a shadow over the viability of mining operations. The looming Bitcoin halving event adds another layer of complexity, further dampening profitability prospects for miners already grappling with market uncertainties. Hut 8's ( NASDAQ:HUT ) financial woes mirror the challenges confronting the cryptocurrency market at large. A 57% decline in revenue for the first nine months of 2023 reflects the downward pressure exerted by falling Bitcoin prices. Despite these setbacks, Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) remains a formidable presence in the Bitcoin network, contributing significantly to its processing power. In addition to operational challenges, Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) has weathered scrutiny in the financial markets. Allegations of legal issues involving its partner, USBTC, in a $725 million merger deal rattled investor confidence, leading to a sharp decline in the company's stock. Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) has vehemently refuted these claims, emphasizing its commitment to transparency and integrity amidst turbulent times. As Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) navigates the tumultuous waters of the energy crisis and regulatory challenges, resilience and adaptability emerge as crucial survival traits. The closure of the Drumheller site marks a strategic retreat in the face of adversity, but the company remains poised to overcome obstacles and seize opportunities in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. With a steadfast commitment to innovation and sustainability, Hut 8 charts a course towards a brighter, more resilient future in the world of digital mining.
NASDAQ:HUTLong
by DEXWireNews
USACAD, 4x but not 4x more like four and for and x and exTrends marked Price Targets marked All of these trends are fairly strong on their own but it looks like this wants to head down before up maybe to 1.08? 1.22 in the near term sound reasonable? This chart was requested. I don't pay much attention to this chart so let me know if I'm missing something I'd normally pick up had I been monitoring this more frequently. But, I think I got all the important trends and longer term price targets. again, I was hesitant to draw a line, but I think it better shows the downside potential. I wouldn't follow it, I'd expect it to be incorrect, instead focus should be with the trends and price targets.
by nicktussing77
EURUSD|The probability of breaking the support zoneHello friends, I hope you are doing well, let's go to the popular currency pair EURUSD. In EURUSD, the selling pressure seems to be more, we can understand this from the powerful candles, broken trends. For this reason, short positions have a higher winning percentage. By reaching the supply area (1.1015), we can enter a sell position with confirmation until the price (1.90). In the future, if it can break the demand area, we expect the price of 1.080 to continue falling
Short
by Golden_Star1994
1
LOOP INDUSTRIES / WYCKOFFThe great Wyckoff cycle is over, the new great cycle is near, interesting purchase in DCA for the long term. Canadian company in the recycling of plastic waste with a unique and revolutionary technology. Some scandalous articles in the press here and there, which given the share price seems to me to be a possible manipulation to keep the price low (personal opinion). Visible bullish divergence. Possible double bottom. Very interesting...
NLong
by yankfr
Exploring the Impact of CBDC on Forex Trading in CanadaI am reaching out to discuss an intriguing topic that has been gaining significant attention in the financial realm: the potential impact of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on forex trading in Canada. As you may be aware, the introduction of CBDC has sparked numerous discussions and debates among forex traders. The purpose of this idea is to delve into the concerns raised by these traders and shed light on how the implementation of CBDC could potentially affect their trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall dynamics of the forex market. Forex traders have expressed several apprehensions regarding the introduction of CBDC. Firstly, they are concerned about the potential disruption to their trading strategies. Since CBDC would be a digital representation of the national currency, traders fear that its introduction could alter the existing forex market dynamics, making their current strategies less effective or even obsolete. Moreover, market liquidity is another aspect that traders are closely monitoring. The introduction of CBDC could potentially impact the liquidity of the forex market, as it may attract a significant portion of trading volume towards this new digital currency. This shift in liquidity could have implications for traders who rely on the current market conditions and liquidity levels to execute their trades effectively. Furthermore, the overall dynamics of the forex market might experience some changes with the introduction of CBDC. Traders are concerned about potential shifts in exchange rates, volatility, and the relationship between different currency pairs. These changes could create uncertainties and challenges for traders who have built their strategies based on the existing market dynamics. In conclusion, the potential implications of CBDC on forex trading in Canada have raised valid concerns among traders. The impact on trading strategies, market liquidity, and overall forex market dynamics are critical factors that need to be carefully considered. Understanding these concerns and their potential consequences is crucial for traders and policymakers alike. cointelegraph.com
C
by bryandowningqln
Canadian Dollar - CAD - pairs(This post is to be a collection place/"container" for all CAD - Canadian Dollar - and related pairs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After weeks of consolidation near the bottom of a rising, long-term, weekly price trend channel, the USDCAD looks to be poised for a near-term, +500 pt topside breakout, toward visible targets around the 1.3650s level. The well-formed, large bullish Wedge further suggests a potentially swift, upward price move. The USDCAD Daily;
by Nemo_Confidat
Best trade of the week? USDCAD or Oil? Will bearish bets on the Canadian dollar grow in the lead up to Wednesday? It is widely expected that the Canadian central bank will leave interest rates on hold during its meeting that concludes on this day (Although, it may be a hawkish hold as the Governor Tiff Macklem will mention that another hike is still on the table for the bank). Perhaps piling on the bearish sentiment is the slight fall in the price of oil (one of Canada's major exports), as US diplomatic efforts continue to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas. How long this quietish period can last is up for debate though, and a ground offensive by the IDF in Gaza could send oil prices higher. Bullish takes on the USD/CAD (i.e., bearish bets on the Loonie) will have 1.37350 to content with, which is the high the pair reached before cratering to 1.36712 to start the week. 1.36936 is the more immediate resistance for bull to cross before even thinking about the day's high. The RSI’s weakness suggests this won’t be too difficult though, and 1.37189 might be the more formidable resistance.
by BlackBull_Markets
LONG AIRLINES ACDVF, AC, JETS, AAL, DALTSX:AC Technical and Fundamental Reasons for going Long AC Air Canada, and AAL and JETS and DAL: We are in a tightening 3 Month range in all airline names (And even in broader markets) Given how we have come straight down from the highs, a multi week bounce with legs is likely and positioning in here would be a strong Risk / Reward entry. While DXY the dollar is set for monthly consolidation along with oil (Despite the knee jerk reaction to Israel which will likely fade. Markets are holding up well and have priced in peak rates with yields all coming down sharply after capitulating last week. While DXY OIL and Yields drop. Airlines are huge laggards (and after good selling and bad news being well priced in) it is time for major bounces. It is a highly volatile sector so a big drop the way it did warrants a big pop. With capitulation following analyst downgrades, and company outlook drops to adjust estimates for rising fuel costs and labor costs. The discounts of this bad news is very well priced in and has capitulated with huge volume climaxes Monday after the Israel situation over the weekend. As with 9/11 and Russia invasion, the knee jerk reaction last about a week, before the entire dip is re bought up. Assuming no escalation in Iran to push oil even higher, airlines will care most about earnings and forward guidance to see demand outlook for Q4 and 2024 company guidance. With DAL reporting Thursday and more coming in next few weeks, I'd expect that the reported results for Q3 are very strong, and more importantly that Q4 and 2024 outlooks won't be as bad as markets are pricing. Resulting in a swift 10-15% bounce on many airline names. Again: The bad news is very well priced in, and markets will begin to find good value for entrance pre earnings and post earnings as we are very oversold and surprised to the upside with earnings that weren't even close to as bad as markets are expecting as well as strong forward guidance. NASDAQ:AAL TSX:AC AMEX:JETS NYSE:DAL
ALong
by TheIntelligentInvestor