Get started

Canopygrowth

WEED bulls take a standI'll readily admit today took me completely by surprise. I studied numerous charts last night and came to one conclusion - the sector would not have a bounce today because WEED's 4hr RSI was not low enough; it was only 32, when generally bounces happen from 27 or lower. WEED opened the day with multiple rejections from the high of CGC premarket, then saw a bear break to a V-shape recovery. This wasn't the bounce setup I wanted, it wasn't the price action I expected, so I sat out. I missed the entire 8% move and I'll sit that out every single time when I'm not comfortable with the setup. Three things today are worth noting WEED bulls didn't roll over after the most significant bear break since June; We bounced 10% from the low of yesterday to high of today, from RSI levels on the 4hr chart that are not historic bounce levels; and We finished at the high of the day with a big bullish candle The volume is a little lower than I would have liked to see, but we are expecting to set a lower high on the daily; Anything under 66.19 will be that lower high. Our new must hold level is 57.60 and that is the range I'll be watching. The bulls were in full control all day and set no hourly supports; the chart is very extended. We've bounced enough that we would anticipate a higher low above 57.60, and the bulls will then have to break hourly resistance to see continuation of the oversold bounce. I've been of the opinion we won't get a bull run into Oct 17th because we've been running already for 6 weeks. I've been watching the sector for two weeks waiting for bulls to show up and buy, warning we'd see profit taking and a bear break, which we saw yesterday, but I'm starting to look at the sector a little bit more bullish after today because I'm picking up on clues of some underlying bull strength. I'm not saying we will run into Oct 17th, but I was ready to rule it out last night and today I'm not so sure anymore. It's all about 57.60 - 66.19 right now, and I expect we will top out soon before needing a healthy pullback on the hourly chart in order to see continuation. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
CGC bulls take a standI'll readily admit today took me completely by surprise. I studied numerous charts last night and came to one conclusion - the sector would not have a bounce today because CGC's 4hr RSI was not low enough; it was only 32, when generally bounces happen from 27 or lower. CGC opened the day with multiple rejections from the high of premarket, then saw a bear break to a V-shape recovery. This wasn't the bounce setup I wanted, it wasn't the price action I expected, so I sat out. I missed the entire 8% move and I'll sit that out every single time when I'm not comfortable with the setup. Three things today are worth noting CGC bulls didn't roll over after the most significant bear break since June; We bounced 10% from the low of yesterday to high of today, from RSI levels on the 4hr chart that are not historic bounce levels; and We finished at the high of the day with a big bullish candle The volume is a little lower than I would have liked to see, but we are expecting to set a lower high on the daily; Anything under 51.21 will be that lower high. Our new must hold level is 44.90 and that is the range I'll be watching. The bulls were in full control all day and set no hourly supports; the chart is very extended. We've bounced enough that we would anticipate a higher low above 44.90, and the bulls will then have to break hourly resistance to see continuation of the oversold bounce. I've been of the opinion we won't get a bull run into Oct 17th because we've been running already for 6 weeks. I've been watching the sector for two weeks waiting for bulls to show up and buy, warning we'd see profit taking and a bear break, which we saw yesterday, but I'm starting to look at the sector a little bit more bullish after today because I'm picking up on clues of some underlying bull strength. I'm not saying we will run into Oct 17th, but I was ready to rule it out last night and today I'm not so sure anymore. It's all about 44.90 - 51.21 right now, and I expect we will top out soon before needing a healthy pullback on the hourly chart in order to see continuation. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
C
by McGuireTO
4
WEED bears assert dominance, finally breaking the daily uptrendWEED broke the daily equilibrium bearish today and closed down 6.5%. A small bounce at the end of the day cooled off RSI levels and we're no longer oversold on any timeframe. I was looking forward to an oversold bounce tomorrow but after hours trading further cooled off RSI and finished trading in a bear flag setup. Two daily supports were broken today, after low of today our next support is 52.80 - that's a good 10% further to the downside. I'm personally going to be patient waiting for a setup I like. If we get a big gap down tomorrow, for example, opening below $55.00, that's a setup that will have me interested. Otherwise, RSI levels have cooled down enough at the end of day bounce that we could easily see another -6% day tomorrow. I've been talking a lot in my past ideas about the psychology of what's going on right now in the sector. To further drive home how sentiment has shifted from bulls to bears, note that it's been a full three weeks since we've had two green days in a row - and this is when everybody has been expecting a huge bull run into October 17th. I'm not going to be entering positions based on what I want to happen, I'm going to watch the charts for a setup that favours a bull entry.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
CGC bears assert dominance, finally breaking the daily uptrendCGC broke the daily equilibrium bearish today and closed down 6.5%. a small bounce at the end of the day cooled off RSI levels and we're no longer oversold on any timeframe. I was looking forward to an oversold bounce tomorrow but after hours trading further cooled off RSI and finished trading in a bear flag setup. Two daily supports were broken today, after low of today our next support is 40.68 - that's a good 10% further to the downside. I'm personally going to be patient waiting for a setup I like. If we get a big gap down tomorrow, for example, opening below $42.00, that's a setup that will have me interested. Otherwise, RSI levels have cooled enough that we could easily see another -6% day tomorrow. I've been talking a lot in my past ideas about the psychology of what's going on right now in the sector. To further drive home how sentiment has shifted from bulls to bears, note that it's been a full three weeks since we've had two green days in a row - and this is when everybody has been expecting a huge bull run into October 17th. I'm not going to be entering positions based on what I want to happen, I'm going to watch the charts for a setup that favours a bull entry.
C
by McGuireTO
2
CGC bulls prove nothing (Do I sound like a broken record yet?)CGC opened significantly higher considering the big bearish momentum Friday afternoon into the weekend. Bulls made two attempts first thing this morning to break the high of Friday and fell short both times, resulting in profit taking and another close down at the low of the day. We have an inside bar on the daily to watch for clues. It's worth noting CGC has rejected from the daily Middle Bollinger Band two days in a row after losing it on Thursday. Zooming into the hourly, every test of the hourly Middle Bollinger Band has been a rejection as well since losing it on Sept 26th. The range I'm watching remains the same as it's been for the past week; 48.02 - 55.00, and we're much more closer to a bear break than to a bull break. The MACD is signaling bearish momentum, backing up the selling pressure we're seeing on the charts. Volume has been well below average for the past two weeks in a row and I expect that pattern to continue until we get a break of that range. Much like the price action, daily RSI is tight against the support level as well. I feel like a broken record to keep using the same phrase, but the bulls really have their backs against the wall here and to make a move, or lose the daily uptrend and significantly shift momentum just two weeks out from legalization. I am absolutely looking to enter a swing short entry on the loss of $48.00 psychological support, looking for significant follow-through to the downside Many people are looking for a bull run into Oct 17th and I keep pointing out one thing. We've been running since Aug 14th, during which the price has increased more than 120%. That's significant and this run will not continue forever. The psychology of the chart is bulls fighting as hard as they can waiting for the buyers that everybody thinks are about to show up. If those buyers don't show up, investors are going to take profit, and that will result in a bear break and a significant shirt in momentum for the entire sector.
C
by McGuireTO
3
CGC bulls proving nothing to meCGC started the day Friday with a gap down open just above our key daily level, providing a great bottom-fishing opportunity to play in our daily equilibrium. The entire move was given back in the afternoon when news came out of Canopy withdrawing their 'Chronic By Dre' trademark request after forgetting to get permission from the rapper to use his name. The result is a very bearish candlestick on the daily chart, still within our daily equilibrium, and still very close to a bear break. Hourly RSI has cooled and could very easily see a significant move down. Turning on after hours (American ticker only) you can see the price rejecting from EMAs and providing a bear flag setup if the low of the afternoon sell-off 48.55 breaks. The past two weeks on the daily chart have been a chopfest and I've been sitting on my hands waiting for it to play out, so we can finally have some clarity for the short term. I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt here, they need to prove it to me. First step would be to hold our key level 48.02 and break Friday's high 51.21. Key range for me is 48.02 - 55.69. Until one of these levels break, I don't expect much trading opportunity as the range is so narrow it's difficult to find a pattern to play off of. If we break bullish, I will be a buyer looking for a new all time high heading into Oct 17th, and if we break bearish, I'll be entering as a short looking for a 5-7% move to the downside. If we break bearish I would zoom out to the weekly chart and anticipate forming a weekly equilibrium, with a new higher low above 40.68. After covering my short I would be looking to enter long, as a range of 40.68 - 55.69 is more than enough room to play within and not have to worry about choppy price action giving false signals. Reading the psychology of the chart, the past four days have clearly seen traders taking profit as they run out of patience waiting for new buyers. Many people are anticipating a run into Oct 17th, but I'm becoming skeptical there are many people looking to buy in the next two weeks that haven't already bought in. I'm remaining neutral on what I think will happen, but we are 1% away from a bear break on the daily and 14% away from a bull break. The weekly chart remains very healthy.
C
by McGuireTO
WEED closing in on key supportWEED small gap down open today, pulling back on a significant increase in bear volume is certainly a concern for the bulls. The weak afternoon bounces certainly have me looking for possible bear-flag confirmation and to further downside; bulls must hold $62.02 and break above $65.05 to negate that flag potential. Key support for the bulls to maintain the daily uptrend is $62.02. This sits in the middle of a low volume node, meaning a break could see price continue downwards towards $59.70 where we start to see much more volume support. Resistance to break are $65.05 and $66.64 high of today. I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt - a pullback this significant on increasing bear volume is a definite red flag for me. How WEED (really, how CGC) moves from here will dictate the direction for the rest of the sector heading into legalization on October 17th. Losing that support at $62 makes it less likely we will see new highs heading into next month.
TSX:WEED
by McGuireTO
CGC closing in on key supportCGC small gap down open today, pulling back on a significant increase in bear volume is certainly a concern for the bulls. The weak afternoon bounces certainly have me looking for possible bear-flag confirmation and to further downside; bulls must hold $48.90 and break above $50.00 psychological to negate that flag potential. Key support for the bulls to maintain the daily uptrend is $48.02. This sits in the middle of a low volume node, meaning a break could see price continue downwards towards $46.20 where we start to see much more volume support. Resistance to break are $48.98 (call it $50 psychological) and $51.04 high of today. I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt - a pullback this significant on increasing bear volume is a definite red flag for me. How CGC moves from here will dictate the direction for the rest of the sector heading into legalization on October 17th. Losing that support at $48 makes it less likely we will see new highs heading into next month.
C
by McGuireTO
Short on CRON - Divergence Technicals - CRON 9.78% broke out of a strong resistance today but failed to hold. Price is back within the parallel channel . In addition, RSI is diverging from price action. These are really simple, but strong bearish signals. Fundamentals - Following the success of Tilray 38.12% , CRON 9.78% soared two days in a row, breaking new highs. However, no significant fundamental news within the company justifies such a jump in prices. I believe that the 560% change in price in 52 weeks is clearly an overreaction and could lead to a massive dump. Institutional investors are massively short on Cannabis stocks in general; CRON 9.78% is overpriced and will drop back down to the $9.13-10 level.
NASDAQ:CRONShort
by Tutur
5
CGC - letting the dust settleWatching the CGC range from low of Friday to high of today. Today's low bounced right off the golden pocket of the fib pull with swing low as the oversold bounce low, to the high of today. It will be interesting to see if that holds. I'll be remaining very patient as the next couple of days set a tightening range with new levels to play off of. The break of that tightening pattern will set momentum for the days to follow. Today's bear volume was very notable. We know there is ETF balancing ongoing this week that must settle up Friday, so I am leaning towards seeing more selling pressure into tomorrow and Friday. I find the most clarity on the daily and 4hr charts. The 4hr chart with extended hours could be considered a bear flag here, but those long lower wicks of bulls buying the dip are a point in opposition to that possibility.
C
by McGuireTO
4
WEED Going DownBroke through previous upward channel, found support on the 0.5 fib, but failed to make a higher high. Bearish divergence on the RSI and Stoch is looking to form a bearish cross. Reversal indicated via heikin ashi as well. Rapid dump indicates this is not a simple bull flag. Volume has also been decreasing during the rebound off the last dip. Expect a retrace to at least the 0.5 fib. Likely will find support around the 100 Day SMA as it has done previously. My opinion not financial advice
TSX:WEEDShort
by green_brow
WEED, Canopy Growth Corp, TSX. The Big 100 Idea!?Keeping it simple. I personally am a bounce chaser, but occasionally like to post these long term goal charts. I drew a long term 2 year wedge, that leads right into 2021. This is a long time to draw a wedge for waiting for it to play out, as there will be many factors contributing to the ups and downs of this one. We have some sell signals on the weekly, which could destroy this wedge really fast, which may seem more practical. The momentum is still bullish but starting to taper off into a possible couple month sell off to the bottom of the wedge. This chart is for fun and perspective. Happy trading, debating and speculating!
TSX:WEED
by ToddGreen