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Cocoa

‘Tis the season to be Chocolatey!While you’re enjoying the summer sun and clear skies back in SA paradise… I’m afraid I’m not. I’m trying to keep warm sitting inside a local restaurant in Greece with a cup of hot chocolate while I search for my next trade. And surprise, surprise, cocoa popped up on my radar… Here are three reasons why I’m buying cocoa and where I expect it to head next. Reason #1: We are all buying We are literally one month away from celebrating yet another Christmas. And this is the top time of year where you, me and countless consumers will be buying chocolates. This increase in demand, will have a positive impact on the price of cocoa… Here’s a statement that Jack Scoville, analyst at Chicago’s Price Futures Group for “soft” commodities, has to say that coincides perfectly with the season: “The weekly charts for cocoa imply that a significant rally is possible over the next few weeks,” Reason #2: Thank the weather Did you know two-thirds or 60% of the world’s supply of cocoa beans come from West Africa each year. This includes the Ivory Coast and Ghana. You see, as cocoa is an agricultural commodity – the demand, supply and prices all have an impact based on the weather conditions and crop diseases that prevail. Jack Scoville mentioned, for the incoming produce, that the harvest was active this week in the world’s largest growing region of West Africa, with good volume and quality. It was also confirmed that the weather was also great for produce, due to the rain levels that West Africa received. Jack then added, “The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers.” “The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost cocoa prices.” Reason #3: A new surcharge to boost the cocoa prices This surcharge will have more of an impact than you think. Take the leading cocoa manufacturers including Hershey, Mars, Ferrero Group, Nestle etc… Them and other companies depend on supplies from the Ivory Coast and Ghana for the beans. This new premium will not only lead to a rise in price but also a further increase in cash flow, production, create sustainability and will allow farmers to boost wages for their workers. And so the chocolate manufacturers have supported the two nations decision to add the $400 per ton surcharge. Now let’s get into the charts… Looking at the above daily chart of the spot Cocoa Futures price, we can see that since March 2019 the price has been moving in a sideways range between $1,640 and $1,940 (Shaded area). Each time the price touched the $1,940 high, it then retraced back ended up making an even higher low. This has formed what’s known as an Ascending Triangle. This positive formation shows prices touching the same high while making higher, low prices, until there is a upside breakout. This took place last week (red shaded area), which confirmed there was a lot more upside to come. In fact, we can now expect the upside momentum to continue which will take the cocoa futures price to the next high - See the analysis above...
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Timonrosso
COCOA: On a multi month Higher High. How to trade it.Cocoa has been trading on a multi-year Channel Up since May 2017 with the 1D chart trading near the overbought territory (RSI = 70.555, MACD = 51.220, Highs/Lows = 144.4643). If the Channel stays intact then the price should pull back towards the 1D MA200 for a Higher Low near 2,365. If however it breaks as it did in March 2018 then it can easily reach 2,940 which is the 2 year high. We have identified 2,700 as this break out point. You may trade accordingly with a tight SL. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
ICEUS:CC1!
by InvestingScope
NIB BUYING OPPORTUNITY - COCOA Nib is an ETN which invests in Cocoa futures. It has broken through a downward trendline. It appears to be setting up for an inverse head and shoulders. Trading plan: Buy around downward blue support line. Stop loss just under the support line. Targets are at the neckline of the Inverse H&S and also at the previous high where the green arrow shows. Based on my study of the patterns in cocoa, I believe Cocoa is one of the most bullish commodities at this time. What do you think?
NLong
by cedarfox
COCOA TO GO 'LONG' for the futureQuick chart for my followers, cocoa to go long, if you have been following my other publishes then you would understand my chart without yellow full details, there may be further downtrend on the bottom yellow line but overall cocoa is on the uptrend as it has hit top yellow line. Top yellow line at 2051 Bottom yellow line at 1800 Please study your indicators understand some, as they would help you determine a suitable entry point. use lower timeframe views such, Weekly and Daily view for a suitable entry point to go uptrend. Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders. All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
NYMEX:CJ1!Long
by Dani0
Cocoa daylevel resistance 2443. Short or long? fibonacci analyseCocoa is at a heavy resistance now, 2443. Will it go Short or long? Price is exactly between two fibonacci resistances now; 2524 and 2368. I think price will bounce between these two before it breaks long or short. When it breaks the long resistance 2524, I see a target of 2674. When it breaks low; target 2153. Most difficult part are the exact positions where to buy and positions stop loss. I have some ideas about which positions to place orders, but I'll try some movements before opening them. After years of studying, learning and practicing I have developed a way of trading which can provide an profit every month by trading cfd's. The strategy I learned from an visionair is 'Cycle trading' and I have developed this further and made it my own. How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts, as; is the trend horizontal / uptrend or downtrend or volatile. - and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! one of the indicators I use here to help me is the Fibonacci sequence. - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are Other positions than the resistances in the market! Here I work with 'the total expected possible profit' and an percentage from this total opportunity where I mostly close the trade to be safe. And that's not all at all. Also I check if the opportunity is interesting, by analyzing the charts and when I can make the conclusion that when I should open an certain trade and the possible profit would be 2/3rd of the amount you can possibly loss. So, in bad case lose 100 dollar and best case win 300 dollar it is worth the try! losing these kind of trades, I see as an investment on the possible loss. Stop loss needs to be tight here. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! Sometimes we are in huge loss, before we end the month in good profit. This is all part of the game. Without trading positions which we lose, we could never win more than we lose. Losing orders is investing in the knowledge to trade the right one to earn money. Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
NYMEX:CJ1!
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
Cocoa at heavy resistance now 2443. Short or long? check my ideaCocoa is at a heavy resistance now, 2443. Will it go Short or long? Price is exactly between two fibonacci resistances now; 2524 and 2368. I think price will bounce between these two before it breaks long or short. When it breaks the long resistance 2524, I see a target of 2674. When it breaks low; target 2153. Most difficult part are the exact positions where to buy and positions stop loss. I have some ideas about which positions to place orders, but I'll try some movements before opening them. After years of studying, learning and practicing I have developed a way of trading which can provide an profit every month by trading cfd's. The strategy I learned from an visionair is 'Cycle trading' and I have developed this further and made it my own. How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse: - sentiment on the market > are people in buy mode or short mode - I have some own created indicators, some I show in my charts, as; is the trend horizontal / uptrend or downtrend or volatile. - and this own indicators tell me when probably a new long position starts or a new short > these are the positions where I place my orders! one of the indicators I use here to help me is the Fibonacci sequence. - and again other own created indicators tell me how far long or short it probably goes. The take profit and stop loss positions are Other positions than the resistances in the market! Here I work with 'the total expected possible profit' and an percentage from this total opportunity where I mostly close the trade to be safe. And that's not all at all. Also I check if the opportunity is interesting, by analyzing the charts and when I can make the conclusion that when I should open an certain trade and the possible profit would be 2/3rd of the amount you can possibly loss. So, in bad case lose 100 dollar and best case win 300 dollar it is worth the try! losing these kind of trades, I see as an investment on the possible loss. Stop loss needs to be tight here. Patience is everything, we’ll wait for the right moment! Sometimes we are in huge loss, before we end the month in good profit. This is all part of the game. Without trading positions which we lose, we could never win more than we lose. Losing orders is investing in the knowledge to trade the right one to earn money. Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
NYMEX:CJ1!
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
COCOA CC1!I rarely publish these longterm ideas but here i am pointing out the current wave 4 on a weekly chart. So in the long run we will be short the CC1! but since we are currently in a wave 4 we will be looking for long positions. For a starter position i placed a long entry @2000, next @1975, @1935 and finally @1900 Soft targets start @2290,@2610 and very distant and unlikely @2800. Targets 2610 and 2800 would be the area of adding big short positions for the long term trend continuation and commencing of wave 5. Long term Short Targets start @1300, all the way to @790.
CLong
by ValloLoco