NIO 8 AFTER EARNINGS !! NYSE:NIO
Record Delivery Expectations: NIO shares soared over 9%, hitting $5.40 on record delivery expectations. Analysts foresee surpassing last year's high due to discounts. This indicates a positive market response to NIO's potential performance, which could lead to a higher stock price.
Market Sentiment: The market's response to NIO's earnings reports has generally been positive, with the stock price rising after strong earnings reports. This suggests that if NIO continues to report strong earnings, the market could respond positively, potentially pushing the stock price towards $8.
Strong Quarterly Earnings: NIO has shown strong financial performance in the recent past, with its stock price rising after reporting strong earnings. This indicates a positive market response to its financial performance, which could lead to a higher stock price in the future.
Increased Price Targets by Analysts: Analysts have increased their price targets for NIO, with some predicting a potential rise to $8. These optimistic forecasts suggest that the market and analysts have confidence in the company's future growth and performance.
Positive Industry Outlook: The electric vehicle industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing need for sustainable transportation solutions. As a leading player in this space, NIO is well-positioned to benefit from this industry growth, which could lead to a higher stock price.
Innovative Product Line: NIO is poised to add two sedans to its offerings this year. This expansion of its product line could drive sales and revenue growth, potentially leading to a higher stock price.
China
USD/CNH: BofA’s Caution, JPM’s WarningsUSD/CNH: BofA’s Caution, JPM’s Warnings
Bank of America (BofA) has expressed caution about betting against the US dollar in the face of recent improvements in sentiment towards China's economic policy stimulus. Recent policy actions by China have sparked optimism, leading to a weakening of the USD. However, BofA advises against making hasty financial moves based on these developments alone.
BofA believes that the effectiveness of Chinese Economic policies in stimulating significant new economic activity remains uncertain. Investors are encouraged to wait for more definitive signs of a sustained recovery in China's credit and property sectors before making significant currency moves.
Just last month, BofA expressed a bearish outlook on several Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Thai baht, and Vietnamese dong. BofA anticipated sustained depreciation pressures on the yuan into the second half of the year due to several factors particularly due to the delayed easing by the Federal Reserve.
On the other side, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, has been continuing his warnings at the JPMorgan Global China Summit in Shanghai. Dimon suggested that the chance of stagflation in the US—a period of stagnant economic growth combined with high inflation—is higher than most people think. Last week, he did not rule out the possibility of a hard landing for the US economy.
JD.com (JD): Key Levels to Watch Amid Potential BreakoutFor the Chinese stock JD.com listed on the Nasdaq, we observe a significant pattern. Initially, we had a prolonged sideways movement that concluded with an initial surge, establishing the current resistance zone. This zone held twice before the price fell through.
Starting from point X in our Elliott Wave count in November 2018, we saw a rapid increase of approximately 470% in a short period. However, this was followed by a steep sell-off, leading to the formation of Wave (2) within a trend channel.
The correction's time horizon places it in the perfect zone, typically between 2 and 2.618 on the higher time frame, which is a good indicator that this could indeed be Wave (2). To continue the upward movement, it is crucial for JD.com to flip this resistance zone.
The current question is whether the price will first return to the High-Volume Node Point of Control (POC) or break out upwards directly. Flipping the support-resistance zone will be key for any significant upward momentum.
We'll be closely monitoring these levels to determine the next move.
Zooming in on the 12-hour timeframe, we can observe the scenario at the end of the assumed Wave (2). This pattern is characteristic of what we like to see at the conclusion of Wave 2. Initially, we experienced an accumulation phase, which transitioned into a manipulation phase, followed by an expansion phase. This sequence is generally a positive sign.
Currently, we are witnessing a pullback after touching the resistance level. Despite this, we maintain our outlook that the price should continue to rise and not retest the $20 mark.
There's a breakout gap that partially filled but remains open near the bottom. This gap formed just before we entered the expansion phase, and it's a critical point to consider.
Given the ongoing volatility in the Chinese market and the uncertainty among investors, we remain cautious. We are closely watching how JD.com behaves within the $24.50 to $26.80 range. With a drop towards the gap close near $21, we will consider making significant buys.
If the price breaks out upwards, we will look for opportunities to enter positions.
THE MOST Bullish chart you will see today!Is of the Shanghai composite.
A beautiful HVF is nearing pattern triggering,.
Early accumulation is probably warranted!
Isn't now the most bearish FUD, over the Chinese economic miracle you have ever seen in a lifetime.
The chart is telling a different story of consolidation of its extreme growth and continuation of it's remarkable rise.
A quadrupling on the index means some of the underling securities will yield life changing gains.
I haven't done any due diligence on individual names
But an #ETF to keep an eye on is #KWEB
Which is a basket of Chinese internet stocks.
JD Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold JD before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JD prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 35usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $1.29.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CN50 dips continue to attract buyers.CN50USD - 24h expiry
Price action has stalled at good support levels and currently trades just above here (12550).
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 12650 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 12800.
We look to Buy at 12550 (stop at 12450)
Our profit targets will be 12800 and 12850
Resistance: 12650 / 12750 / 12800
Support: 12600 / 12550 / 12500
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
China Recovery BetFundamentals & Sentiment
HK50:
- China recovery, based on PMI and GDP QoQ
- The latest China Trade Balance printed decently above the previous one (although below consensus)
USD:
Yesterday's cooling US labor market, based on Initial Jobless Claims increase
Technical & Other
*Chose HK50 instead of ChinaA50 because of smoother price action; eventually HK turned out to be stronger because of the dividend tax cuts for individuals who bought HK shares. China A50 seems to be more vulnerable to geopolitics, like China tariffs in the US.
Technical & Other
Setup: TC(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Uptrend
Target: June-August highs
Risk: 1.2%
Entry: Buy Stop
CN50 to continue in the upward move?CN50USD - 24h expiry
The trend of higher lows is located at 11800.
Further upside is expected.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 12800 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 12900.
We look to Buy at 12650 (stop at 12550)
Our profit targets will be 12900 and 12950
Resistance: 12800 / 12850 / 12900
Support: 12700 / 12650 / 12600
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CSI300 BULL FLAG ON SUPPORT LOOKS PROMISING. BREAKOUT NEEDED❗️❗️CSI has honored the significant demand zone, suggesting a potential continuation in the rally. The price respecting this highlighted zone coincides with the formation of a bullish flag on lower timeframes, further bolstering our bullish expectations. Notably, a bullish breakout has been confirmed on the formed flag, potentially leading to a rally with the creation of a pullback.
If sufficient volume and pressure emerge, there's a possibility of another bullish breakout on the trend line formed, which is crucial for validating our outlook.
CQQQ May 7th TTR UpdateTheTradersRoom is very long #CQQQ from much lower levels and looking to hold this one till at least we see 2-3x gains on it.
We have entered it first days of Feb and very happy with the result.
China is recovering and Im expecting a perfect inversion alignment to QQQ here into the end of the next year.
It was a clear breakout from the downtrend channel last week. If the broken channel gets tested from above, it will be a perfect opportunity to add into our long position.
Uranium Go Boom!Uranium looks ready to explode higher.
This commodity had a daily chart breakout today and no one is talking about it.
Silently triggering a bullish inverse head and shoulders, this should yield more upside.
I'm looking for this breakout move to be confirmed in the coming days. If it confirms a breakout this will be a likely trade that we can buy the dip on.
China Caixin PMI SummaryChina Caixin PMI Summary
Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary.
Manufacturing - 51.4
Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024
✅Above expectations of 51
Services - 52.5
Decreased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.5 in Apr 2024
✅In line with expectations of 52.5
Composite - 52.8
Increased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.8 in Apr 2024
✅Above expectations of 52.5
China bottom vs USA | FXI vs SPXWe will continue to beat our fists on the table that Asia has bottomed vs US equities.
simple chart here. FXI (China large cap index) vs SP500
RSI popping out of oversold on the 2M with a nice bull div.
This is setting up for a multi year move. Likely at least the remainder of the decade.
Macro Monday 45~The China Caixin PMI (Manu, Serv & Composite)Macro Monday 45
The China Caixin PMI
(Services and Composite released Today Monday)
Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday.
We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and Manufacturing PMI's) as these will both be released later today.
1.Manufacturing PMI – Already released
2. Services PMI – Released Today 6th May 2024
3. Composite PMI Released Today 6th May 2024 (both 1 + 2 combined)
What is the Caixin PMI?
▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly.
▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China.
▫️ Surveys a small sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers and service providers.
Why Focus on China PMI's?
China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from the PMI charts we are about to review also.
Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indicies; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
Reading both PMI’s:
>50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month.
< 50 represents contraction
A reading of 50 indicates no change.
The Charts
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI - APR 2024
✅51.4 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
▫️ Increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 – Figures for April were released on the 30th April 2024 (last week).
✅The Caixin Manufacturing PMI has remained expansionary for 6 consecutive (Nov 2023 – Apr 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 40.3, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 6 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings.
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI - Mar 2024
✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary)
⏳ April Figures released today (pending)
THIS IS THE SUBJECT CHART AT OUTSET
▫️ Increased from 50 in Oct 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024
▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024.
✅The Caixin Composite PMI has remained expansionary for 5 consecutive months (Nov 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 similar to Manufacturing and Services PMI charts above. Looking at the composite chart, one can see that we moving sideways since Dec 2023 (Dec 52.6, Jan 52.5, Feb 52.5 & Mar 52.7). We are comfortably in the expansionary green zone on the composite.
In Summary
(subject to tomorrow’s readings for the Services and Composite PMI but we assume expansionary)
China Caixin Manufacturing PM I
↗️ Expansionary
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 51.4, marking the sixth straight month of expansion and the fastest growth since February 2023
China Caixin Services PMI
↗️ Expansionary
As of March 2024, the Caixin Services PMI increased slightly to 52.7, indicating growth in the services sector for the 15th consecutive month
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI
↗️ Expansionary
The Composite PMI reached 52.7 in March 2023, the highest since May 2023, showing the fifth consecutive month of growth in overall private sector activity.
(April 2024 Figures Release Today)
All the above readings suggest a continued expansion across China’s services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting improvements in demand and business activity across the SME cohort.
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful
Lets get after it again this week 💪🏻
PUKA
TOYOTA 254 TP AFTER EARNINGS !! Toyota’s Earnings Report Highlights
Third-Quarter Fiscal 2024 Performance:
On February 6th, 2024, Toyota Motor Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings.
The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.81, significantly surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.66.
Toyota’s consolidated revenues for the quarter were $81.5 billion, beating analyst estimates of $73.7 billion.
Investment Strategy and Hybrid Vehicles:
Toyota’s strategy of focusing on hybrid vehicles rather than electric vehicles (EVs) has paid off.
While many automakers are heavily investing in EVs, Toyota’s commitment to hybrid technology has resonated with consumers and investors.
Sales Volume and Operating Income:
A year-over-year improvement in sales volume likely bolstered Toyota’s results in the third quarter.
However, operating income in China declined due to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and increased selling expenses.
Market Confidence and Future Outlook
Toyota’s strong financial performance, innovative approach, and consistent growth have instilled confidence in investors. As the automotive industry continues to evolve, Toyota’s hybrid focus positions it well for the future.
Tencent (700): Ambitious Targets - Preparing for a BreakoutFor Tencent Holdings Ltd. on the Hong Kong Exchange, we're seeing a scenario where the subordinate Wave (2) has likely concluded between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels around 260 HKD. We anticipate a breakout from this range heading upwards, ideally reaching the target zone for Wave (3) between 227% and 361.8% Fibonacci extensions, which translates to approximately 870 HKD to 1100 HKD. Though this target is quite ambitious, it remains plausible in the long-term scenario for Tencent.
On the 4-hour chart for Tencent Holdings, we are observing a subordinate Wave 1 structure, which should be formed as a 5-wave structure heading upwards. The wave ((iii)) in this sequence has likely concluded at the high-volume node edge, fitting neatly between the 227.2% and 261.8% extension levels for Wave ((iii)).
For the anticipated Wave ((iv)), we expect a more pronounced sell-off to between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, reaching down to our point of control, indicating significant buying interest at these levels. We'll place our stop-loss below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and beneath the maximum level where Wave ((iv)) can feasibly fall without invalidating our scenario. A brief dip into the level of Wave ((i)) is tolerable, but a prolonged stay would challenge the validity of our setup.
We've also respected the trendline well, attempting a retest that should hold if valid, hence not anticipating a further drop. Our upward target is initially set at 416 HKD, beyond which we will look for new entries for a superior Wave 2 and continue to adjust our stop-loss from Wave ((iv)) accordingly.
Xiaomi (1810): From Double Bottom to Skyrocket!At Xiaomi HKEX:1810 , unlike Alibaba, all financial data is in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD) since we are examining the stock on the Hong Kong Exchange. We observed a double bottom formation at 8.28 HKD for Wave II, which also coincides with the bottom edge of our Volume Node. From there, we've seen a significant rise, over 100%, in a relatively short period, with the low occurring at the end of 2022. Currently, we are in a range that has historically moved through very quickly, known as a Low Volume Node. We may either bounce back down from here or break swiftly upwards to around 21 HKD. Given that we are in Wave III, we anticipate surpassing the peak of Wave I significantly, targeting levels above 36 HKD.
Now, let's take a closer look into our long-term perspective on the chart.
Upon closely analyzing Xiaomi on the 4-hour chart, we note a commendable 33% rise from our entry for Wave ((ii)). Congratulations to all who participated in this trade. However, we've developed a bearish divergence on the RSI, indicating a potential decline to form Wave (ii), which should fall between the 50% and 100% levels. We've marked a significantly broad zone since we anticipate substantial upside potential, at least up to 36 HKD, which alone represents a at least 144% increase. It wouldn't make sense to rigidly exclude any scenarios, given our past observations of double bottoms forming for Wave 2.
The most probable range for this correction, in our view, is between the 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, we cannot dismiss the possibility of reaching the full 100%. There is a Low-Volume Node between the 50% and 78.6% levels, suggesting that if we cannot hold the first Fib levels, we might quickly drop lower—another reason for our broad stop-loss.
Alibaba (BABA): Finally Breaking Resistances!Looking at Alibaba, we have set our entry at $71.66 and found ourselves within a consolidation phase, oscillating between $65 and $77.77 for around three months, the latter marking our short-term resistance. We anticipated a breakout through this resistance upwards and this is what finally got this week!
Fundamentally, Alibaba holds substantial potential, and from a technical standpoint, it appears promising as long as it maintains its current level. This was the third time we were testing the trendline, and we expected to break through it.
There is still a chance to revisit lower ranges of this consolidation phase, if we can't hold the critical price level above $ 77.
While we hope it doesn't occur, it remains a possibility. Looking upwards, we have set a very ambitious target, aiming for a rebound to between $200 and $300—a potential increase of approximately 300%. This long-term scenario hinges on stability in geopolitical and other external conditions.
AAPL has IndoChina headwinds SHORTAAPL is here on a 120-minute chart in what appears to be a falling wedge pattern.
As volatility gets compressed further it could break down or break out with a bais for
the latter. I believe that the rise of generic phones in China and Inda with comparable
cameras and other functionality has impacted AAPL as had the rising prices of its
flagship products. Time will tell how this plays out. In the meanwhile, I will consider that
AAPL stays in its wedge and play the top trendline with a short and go long from the
bottom. At present , with price at the upper resistance trendline, I will add to my short
position. I see AAPL staying underneath the 0.5 Fib retracement level of the uptrend for
the time being.
Tesla among top 10 losers. Next what?Tesla is the 7th worst performer YTD in the Nasdaq-100. It is the 11th worst performer in the S&P 500. The stock stands 28% lower.
Still, after reaching its lowest level on 22/April, the stock has rallied a remarkable 30%. On 24/April, the stock rallied 12% after the positive earnings call. On 29/April, the stock jumped another 15% after the announcement of the Baidu ( HKEX:9888 ) partnership.
Yet in the longer term, outlook remains cloudy as margin compression owing to fierce competition from Chinese EV makers and the wider EV industry slowdown.
MUSK'S CHINA VISIT LEADS TO BAIDU DEAL
Last Sunday, Elon Musk flew to China on a surprise visit. The last minute visit led to speculation over a push to launch full self driving (FSD) in China.
Persons close to the matter stated that Musk was expected to discuss the rollout of FSD software and permission to transfer data overseas, as reported in Reuters .
One of the key hold-ups for the rollout of FSD in China has been access to map data. Musk’s recent trip seems to have addressed that as Tesla announced a partnership with Baidu for map data access. While, Musk has long claimed that Teslas will be able to run FSD without map data, this will allow them to roll-out the offering much sooner and boost the slowing revenue in one of their leading markets in China.
FSD has been a recent revenue driver for Tesla. In 2024, Siena Capital analysts estimated that Tesla recognized almost USD 700 million in revenue, which represents 4.3% of their automotive revenue after stripping regulatory credits.
BYD PARTNERSHIP
Another strategic partnership that has helped boost investor sentiment at Tesla has been the strategic partnership with BYD ( HKEX:1211 ).
While both companies are major competitors, BYD recently overtook Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer in terms of overall vehicle sales (including hybrids). However, the fierce competition has also taken a toll on both companies as it has led to price cuts to win over more customers.
That’s why a technology-sharing partnership between the two companies is positive. While, they continue to compete, the partnership – specifically related to the use of BYD’s LFP battery technology in certain low-cost Tesla models – remains a positive for Tesla as it allows them to diversify their battery supply chain, reduce production costs, and enhance range for their lower-cost models.
LOW-COST MODELS COMING SOONER THAN EXPECTED
A recent hurdle for Tesla has been delay behind the upcoming low-cost Model 2 vehicle which plays a pivotal role in Tesla’s growth strategy. According to a Reuters report , Tesla had opted to cancel or indefinitely postpone plans for the upcoming Model 2. Instead, it would focus its attention on Robo-Taxis. The low-cost car represented the next phase of Musk’s long-term master plan to produce affordable electric vehicles through manufacturing process improvements.
Fears were that fierce competition in the low-cost category by Chinese manufacturers would make Tesla’s efforts unfeasible.
Yet, Elon Musk disputed the Reuters report and at the Q1 earnings investor call, it was verified. The Model 2 strategy is still on track. In fact, it may come sooner than expected at the end of 2024. Musk stated that Tesla was accelerating the launch of more affordable models that will be available to produce on its existing manufacturing lines.
Tesla aims to fully utilize its current production capacity towards these efforts and grow manufacturing 50% over 2023 before they start investing in new manufacturing lines.
Additionally, the robo-taxi push is also underway. Elon Musk stated that Tesla will launch its long-awaited robo-taxi product as soon as 8/August/2024. The autonomous driving robo-taxis will earn revenue for their owners. Moreover, owners will be able to add their Tesla's to the robo-taxi shared fleet with just one click on the Tesla app.
BEARISH CLOUDS PERSIST
Despite these recent developments, the outlook for Tesla remains undeniably cloudy. At its Q1 earnings, Tesla reported dismal results. But it’s not just Tesla which is struggling, it’s the wider EV industry.
EARNINGS SUMMARY
Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report released on 23/April revealed a challenging quarter marked by margin compression and a slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales, influenced by strategic price cuts and broader economic factors.
Financially, Tesla reported a reduction in its automotive gross margin to 17.4%, down from previous quarter, reflecting the impact of significant price reductions across its model lineup intended to stimulate demand amid a softening global market.
These price adjustments, while successful in driving a short-term uptick in sales volumes, did not fully counterbalance the revenue per unit loss, leading to an overall revenue of $21.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, both figures below analyst expectations. Quarterly revenue and deliveries were the lowest since 2022.
One of the bright spots has been Tesla’s efforts to control costs. Not only did the company recently announce layoffs. It also stated that it would slow the growth of its Supercharger network to bring costs under control.
Moreover, investors were not as concerned about the concerning financials following the investor call where Musk re-affirmed Tesla’s long-term strategy while maintaining that Tesla would remain lean by producing the new lineup on existing manufacturing lines, assuaging fears of spiraling costs.
Critical to note that it is not just Tesla which struggled in Q1. BYD also reported that its profits fell 47% YoY. Vehicle sales also slowed QoQ. It is the wider industry that is experiencing a slowdown.
Unfortunately for Tesla, margin compression is more concerning for it compared to its Chinese competitors. Particularly as Chinese manufacturers are able to keep costs lower with help from government subsidies. Not only does the Chinese government offer direct subsidies to manufacturers, it also offers subsidies for EV buyers in China which has led to a boom in EV sales, which has benefited Chinese EV manufacturers.
Economic slowdown from high interest rates and a domestic slowdown in China may keep EV sales subdued for some time. In which case, Tesla would be forced to continue with its price cuts which would continue to pressure margins.
TESLA'S FINANCES STRAINED UNTIL AFFORDABLE MODEL LAUNCH
With recent positive news, Tesla stock has recovered sharply. Yet, it remains one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 YTD.
Bearish clouds persist for Tesla as margin compression continues due to competitive price cuts by Tesla. Amid an industry-wide sales slowdown, Tesla may be forced to continue with its strategy to offer price discounts on its cars, keeping its margins pressured. Moreover, Tesla continues to face pressure from low-cost Chinese EVs until it can launch its own low cost models.
While, Tesla’s new models are expected sooner than expected, they are still several quarters away. In the meantime, fundamental factors are likely to continue impacting Tesla’s profitability and subsequently its stock.
Xiaomi: Gained Momentum 🔥The Xiamoi share has overcome resistance at HK$16.98 and is heading towards the forecast top of turquoise wave 3. The bearish alternative scenario of a new low for beige alt.II remains 30% likely. An imminent sell-off below the HK$11.84 support will activate it. Primarily, however, the price should continue to move north from the (former) resistance at HK$16.98.