Alibaba Group | BABA | Long at $80.00Alibaba Group NYSE:BABA has the potential for massive growth. From a technical analysis perspective (and using my selected simply moving averages (SMAs)), the price of NYSE:BABA is reconnecting with its primary SMA. It could ride this area for a while as it consolidates further, but this often means a future reversal of the downward trend. Thus, at $80.00, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $89.00
Target #2 = $94.00
Target #3 = $107.00
Target #4 = $116.00
Target #5 = $305.00 (very long-term view...)
Chinastocks
CHINA A50 Rebound expected.The China A50 index (CN50) eventually closed below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last time we looked into it (June 14, see chart below) and hit our 11800 downside Target:
The long-term pattern remains bearish in the form of a Falling Wedge, but right now we expect a medium-term counter-trend rebound similar to the one that followed the May 30 2023 Low and reached the 0.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we turn bullish on this index, targeting 12350 (0.236 Fib and top of the Falling Wedge).
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SunCar Technology Group: Strong Partnerships & Business ModelSummary
SunCar has built an innovative cloud service and mobile app that digitalize the automotive aftermarket and eInsurance sectors in China.
SunCar’s cloud platform is critical to China’s EV manufacturers as it delivers leading technology, a user-friendly mobile App, and China-wide scope.
In FY 2023 SunCar registered almost 30% overall revenue growth and 80% growth in its auto eInsurance business.
China's EV manufacturers primarily use Direct-to-Consumer models and rely on SunCar's digital platform and mobile app to deliver over 300 aftermarket services and eInsurance.
SunCar recently reported positive Adjusted EBITDA showing a commitment to profitability while still investing in growth.
BYD EV retail store
Robert Way
Introduction and Thesis
If you believe that EVs are a flawed solution to a serious problem on Earth, then read on. I have an investment idea in a really solid company that went public in 2023 through a SPAC deal. Its technology helps cure some pain points for EVs. It's called SunCar Technology Group, (NASDAQ:SDA). Their technology links car owners to aftermarket service and insurance providers via a cloud service and mobile app. It profits by solving the problem of China’s underdeveloped aftermarket for EVs and ICE cars in the largest car market in the world. Like SunCar, EV manufacturers are highly digitalized and have adopted direct-to-consumer models. This means they don’t have large dealer networks, so their aftermarket support is dependent on SunCar. Suncar is strategically positioned through its partnerships with almost all Chinese EV OEMs. It operates a business-to-business-to-consumer, B2B2C, model where Suncar sells its services in deals with OEMs and other large enterprises such as the Bank of China. It's not surprising that SunCar’s traction among EV companies has been so strong. The type of services that will comprise the aftermarket for EVs is still being defined, but SunCar’s network of 47,000 connected service providers is a platform that should drive steady demand. Because China is at the leading edge of EV technology, and these vehicles are highly computerized, I believe technology and data on the EV aftermarket and issues specific to Chinese EV makes are good assets to own.
China's EV Aftermarket
Most of the EVs on Earth are driven in China, and most of the EVs driven in China are made in China. According to the International Energy Agency, "In 2023, just under 60% of new electric car registrations were in the People’s Republic of China." China represents just 17.4% of the global population. While growth is strong in the U.S. and Europe, data from the same source points to China being also the past leader in EV adoption. This is largely due, indirectly, to one factor: intense domestic manufacturer competition. Producers like BYD, Li, Xpeng, Nio, and several smaller names have saturated the market with vehicles and driven down prices for EVs to more affordable levels. Yes, less than $10,000 worth of yuan buys EV caliber of engineering. The specs are inexpensive and comparable with American EV models.
Some rough estimates from numbers across the internet have approximately 35% of the Chinese population as drivers. Comparably, by my estimate, roughly 76% of Americans are drivers. This difference suggests a runway for growth in China. I believe the Chinese market stands to grow much more than the American market as economic conditions improve over the long run. Falling prices, due to government investment in manufacturing, should attract first time car buyers to EVs in China.
This growth opportunity suggests that connecting drivers with aftermarket services will be essential to keeping these cars on the road and useful to their owners. Demand for service, repair, basic maintenance, and modifications should grow in line with the Chinese EV market. There are few, if any, competitive players in SunCar’s digitalized, aftermarket services sector when compared to the fiercely-competitive manufacturing sector in China. For me, SunCar is a company that has an attractive combination of both exposure to and protection from the manufacturers.
China's Auto eInsurance Market
SunCar’s fastest growing business is actually its auto insurance segment. The company developed an innovative technology that allows consumers to get a real-time insurance quote while they are getting another SunCar service such as a tire change. If the consumer goes with the insurance deal, SunCar and the service provider split the commission on the sale. This service opens a new revenue outlet for service providers and incentivizes them to join the platform. This service has proven immensely popular and is likely to become the company’s largest business segment. The synergies between its aftermarket services and insurance segments continue to grow.
China’s auto insurance market continues to further privatize and shift towards EV-specific policies, giving SunCar a large and high-growth market opportunity. This opportunity is highly synergistic with SunCar’s business in the EV aftermarket, as EVs have unique insurance needs which SunCar is meeting through its strong partnerships with the Chinese EV manufacturers. Due to the EV manufacturers’ direct-to-consumer model, those SunCar partners rely heavily on SunCar to provide high quality aftermarket services and insurance to their customers. SunCar's cloud platform is connected to all the major auto insurers in China. It offers the best policies within minutes through a proprietary technology that puts insurance sellers into competition with one another and gives the best deal to the consumer. In the era of the smart shopper, the total cost of owning a vehicle is the main focus, so consumers are increasingly sensitive to insurance. The benefit SunCar provides to buyers in maintaining affordable yet sufficient insurance is something very useful that consumers are seeking. Insurance premiums for EVs typically run 20% higher than for ICE vehicles. Bringing these insurance premiums down to parity with ICE vehicles requires data on the burgeoning aftermarket, which SunCar is able to provide through its large network of service providers.
Financials
SunCar is approximately a $680 million company. It is earnings negative but Adjusted EBITDA positive, which means it is still largely in the product development phase in its lifecycle. According to seeking Alpha, unlevered free cash flow is $-32.1 million, with net income of $-17.6 million. SunCar currently has cash on hand of $52.5 million at the last report, but SunCar is raising capital, as recently covered by Jaskiran Singh, SA News Editor, so the cash runway shouldn’t be too tight given the burn rate. The major upside is that the existing products generate cash. SunCar has accounts receivable amounting to $58.9 million and has strengthened its working capital position by $23.9 million TTM. Sales are strong with 30% revenue growth in FY 2023. Major expenses include R&D and overhead. Given that the market cap is just approximately 1.9x revenue, it seems like strong growth combined with scalable costs have only been modestly rewarded by investors, as comparable tech stocks tend to earn higher multiples. I think there is plenty of room for multiple expansion if SunCar’s future financial reports don’t disappoint.
Risks
I believe that share prices could have a fair amount of extra risk and volatility as foreign relations between China and America play out in an election year. The good news is that SunCar’s auto aftermarket cloud service isn’t specific to EVs and can add value to the auto aftermarket experience in almost any country. Most auto owners feel they are overpaying for insurance and SunCar has a unique, innovative quote service. Many Americans only invest in American businesses because they don’t understand or agree with certain foreign government regimes or simply because the volatility measures of these instruments tend to be higher. This factor affects demand for share prices on an American exchange quite a bit. I do however expect a more educated investor to examine their bias and invest in companies that will become systematically more profitable in the future. There is also foreign currency risk. The yuan may depreciate against the dollar, causing real assets that are marketable in yuan to decrease in dollar value. I think the valuations of companies like SunCar would suffer some volatility consequently if this policy scenario occurred. However, SunCar’s business today is almost exclusively in China so the exchange rate may not be so important at this time.
Conclusion
SunCar is poised to thrive in the emerging China auto market. The global economy for automobiles is undergoing clear changes as well. China is emerging as a winner in engineering affordable, high performance EVs. The niche that SunCar has is making the motor vehicle service and insurance markets respectively more efficient through its access to big service provider and OEM data. This sort of solution seems at least somewhat portable to other economies, and M&A activity could very well bring a similar solution to the United States. Vehicles need to be serviced. EVs in particular need unique services. It’s likely that there is a better solution to organize EV data, and SunCar seems to be finding it. Understanding patterns in OEM-specific issues and documenting them solves several major pain points in the EV aftermarket. It lowers costs and improves the value of the car ownership experience. Appreciating that there are risks to my thesis, I reiterate my buy call on SDA.
Baidu Ready to Take Off
Baidu, like many other China-based companies, has been in a long downturn. However, China is showing signs of economic recovery and this could be a bullish sign for China's largest companies.
Another sign is that the stock is bouncing off a support that has been tested many times. If this support holds, Baidu could be a good investment for the next 2-3 years.
JD.com (JD): Key Levels to Watch for Potential ReversalJD.com has seen the expected drop towards the High Volume Node and Point of Control (POC) on the daily and three-day charts, between $27.50 and $26.80. Now, the price is falling further, and we think the lowest it could go is $24.65. This area is about $1 wide, and if it goes below that, it might drop to $20.
Current Situation:
The current situation shows the main support levels between $27.50 and $26.80. We believe the maximum downside is around $24.65. If it drops below this level, it could fall to $20. This support area is important because a lot of trading happened here, so it’s a key level to watch.
Possible Scenarios:
There are two possible scenarios: a continued decline or a bullish reversal. If the price keeps dropping, it's best to wait until we see some signs of strength. If it falls below $24.65, it could go down to $20. For the price to go up again, JD.com needs to get back above the resistance between $35 and $38. This would show a possible upward trend.
Strategy:
Our plan is to wait to see if the price shows some strength in the current support area. If it keeps falling, we should avoid entering the market. We need to keep an eye on the $24.65 level for any signs of a bigger drop. Also, watch if the price goes back above $35-$38 to signal a possible upward move.
We are closely watching the current support area and will wait for signs of strength before making any decisions. We won't be catching falling knives at the moment, and if the price drops below $24.65, we expect it to fall towards $20. On the other hand, if it goes above $35-$38, it might start a bullish trend.
China A50: Potential swing trade longThe China A50 rose over 20% from it January low to earn its 'technical bull market' status. Yet prices couldn't quite reach 13k before embarking on a -7% retracement over the next four weeks. Yet with it showing early signs of stability above support zones, perhaps a swing low is near - if not in place already.
The daily chart shows a bullish engulfing candle on high volume, which respected the 38.2% Fibonacci level and 12k handle. The engulfing day also closed back above the monthly S1 pivot point.
Bulls could seek dips within the engulfing day's range with a stop beneath its low, or 12k for a more conservative entry. 12.5k or the monthly pivot point make an appealing upside target for bulls.
Alibaba - Back to bearish (not)?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After Alibaba broke below the major support trendline in 2021 we saw a massive correction of -75% towards the downside. Alibaba was then retesting another major level, this time a previous support area which is at $60. So far Alibaba stock is still respecting the bearish trendline, but it is just a matter of time until we will see a bullish trading opportunity on this stock.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NIO ? Are traders ready to love it again LONGNIO on the daily is 95% below its ATH Winter of 2021 and 50% lower YTD. In China NIO is
competing well with XPEV, LI , BYD and TSLA while it makes further penetrative into the
EU market. Its unique concept in action is battery leasing and battery swapping making
charging time no longer relevant. Apparently, the battery swapping time from a depleted
battery to one carrying a charge is 15-20 minutes. Being a bottom-seeking bargain hunter quite
often, I will take a long trade here with a planned duration of two earnings periods.
Alibaba - Don't forget chinese stocks!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 Alibaba stock created a textbook breakout of an ascending triangle formation which was followed by more continuation towards the upside. Then Alibaba stock topped out in 2021 and we saw a massive decline of -80% from the previous highs. At the moment Alibaba is still in a very bearish market but there is a chance that we will see a reversal in the near future.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Trading opportunity is finally there!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Almost a decade ago Alibaba stock retested a strong support at the psychological $60 level and reversed significantly towards the upside. Just a couple of months ago Alibaba stock once again retested this support and created an anticipated reversal. If Alibaba stock actually manages to break above the current resistance trendline, we could maybe see a similar rally like we saw in 2015 and the following years.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
China Caixin PMI SummaryChina Caixin PMI Summary
Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary.
Manufacturing - 51.4
Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024
✅Above expectations of 51
Services - 52.5
Decreased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.5 in Apr 2024
✅In line with expectations of 52.5
Composite - 52.8
Increased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.8 in Apr 2024
✅Above expectations of 52.5
Macro Monday 44~China NBS PMI & Manufacturing Caixin PMIMacro Monday 44
The China NBS PMI and Manufacturing Caixin PMI
(both released Tuesday 30th April 2024)
China NBS General PMI – Surveys by 3,200 large corporations
▫️ Provided by the National Bureau of Labor Statistics
▫️ Based on a large sample size surveying 3,200 companies across China.
▫️ The NBS PMI has a stronger focus on larger state-owned firms.
▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary)
China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surveys by 650 SME’s
▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly.
▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China.
▫️ Surveys a smaller sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers.
▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary)
N.B: The China Services Caixin PMI will be released Monday 6th May which when combined with the China Manufacturing Caixin PMI will form the all encompassing China Caixin Composite PMI. We will cover the China Services and Composite PMI next week on Monday 6th May 2024.
Both the Manufacturing Caixin PMI and the China NBS General PMI are of companies that are mostly export-orientated & located along China’s Costal Regions. These are the manufacturing and export hubs of China, the likes of major coastal regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai which have strategic access to ports and shipping routes.
China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output.
Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion in 2023.
For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from both the PMI charts we are about to review below.
Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indices; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
Reading both PMI’s:
>50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month.
< 50 represents contraction
A reading of 50 indicates no change.
The Charts
China NBS General PMI – Surveys from 3,200 large corporations (subject chart above)
▫️ After hitting an all time low of 28.9 in Feb 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s NBS General PMI has experienced significant fluctuations.
▫️ The NBS PMI made two subsequent significant lows in Apr and Dec 2022 at approx. 42.6.
▫️ By March 2023, the PMI reached an all-time high of 57.0, indicating strong expansion in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
▫️ This fell to a low of 50.3 in Dec 2023, and since then we have risen to 52.7 in Mar 2023.
🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024.
China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surverys from 650 SME’s
▫️ The China Manufacturing Caixin PMI for smaller SME’s has demonstrated a series of higher lows since February 2020 demonstrating a strong recovery out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
▫️ Momentarily reaching all time highs of 54.9 Nov 2020, thereafter falling significantly to 46 in April 2022, since then the Manufacturing Caixin has pressed into expansionary territory of 51.1 (March 2024).
▫️ This was the fifth straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since February 2023, boosted by higher new orders from domestic and abroad, with foreign sales rising the most in a year while output climbed the most since last May.
🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024.
Both PMI's are in expansionary territory which is positive news for China production and exports. SME's appear to have made a more gradual and measured recovery in the Caixin PMI versus the volatile nature of the large corporations in the NBS PMI. Regardless both are swinging higher towards 52 or 53 placing them in the expansionary mode.
Potential Trade Set Up
On a separate note, adding to China's expansionary potential from above economic data and the PMI charts, one of the worlds greatest traders Peter Brandt
@PeterLBrandt
recently posted a potential buy signal one of Chinas main indexes, the Heng Seng Index which looks to have formed a Head and Shoulders bottom with a recent break out (see most recent post under this one).
The Heng Seng Index (HSI) serves as a great proxy for Asian markets, its the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong and includes 82 constituent companies, representing about 60% of the total capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The companies in the HSI are considered blue chips and thus the index operates a good basal gauge of market sentiment in China. Definitely a chart to add to your arsenal for Asian markets.
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful
Lets get after this week 💪🏻
PUKA
Hang Seng: Is a Turnaround Coming?The Hang Seng Index, with everything measured in Hong Kong Dollars rather than US Dollars, offers a distinct perspective within our analysis portfolio, focusing on the Hang Seng Index Futures contract. Starting with a weekly chart overview, we've identified that the initial cycle likely concluded in 2008, followed by a flat correction. Notably, the correction for Wave B exceeded 100%, suggesting that the drop towards Wave (A) level, or slightly lower, is plausible.
However, there's an alternative perspective that at Wave (A) already concluded Wave II, although the rapid temporal progression for such a wave suggests this is less likely. We anticipate further declines, yet it's critical to acknowledge a potential Wave (1) and Wave (2) formation at the 78.6% level. A drop below this point should lead us towards the HK$10,500 mark, aligning with our initial entry point around HK$11,300. Despite this, it's premature to issue a limit order given the ample time to observe developments.
Daily chart observations further indicate an expectation of a 5-wave structure from (B) to (C), which has been forming quite elegantly despite Wave ((iv)) intruding into Wave ((i)) territory. This necessitates our acceptance of the current count unless we opt for an interpretation that sees a completed Wave (2) at the point marked as Wave ((iii)).
Delving into the 4-hour details reveals a persistent downtrend from the onset of what's identified as Wave ((iv)). To reverse this trend, surpassing the invalidation zone would be crucial, suggesting a reconsideration for long positions. Until such a shift occurs, the bear flag's presence likely continues to restrain any significant upward movements in the market.
NIO Long on Disappointing EarningsNIO's disappointing earnings were not a surprise. Given the context of China's recession, NIO
did better than many expected. TSLA is down as well. NIO is doing as well as most of its peers.
On the 120 minute chart, NIO is down 60% from the end of the year highs. The RSI indicator
confirms that NIO is in oversold undervalued territory. NIO is at the bottom of the high volume
area of the profile and has been trending down with the first lower VWAP line as resistance.
I see NIO as likely to trend up as the China economy improves and for that to be reflected
in the next earnings report. NIO's innovative battery swapping program where the car owner
buys a car without a battery and is able to swap out an energy depleted battery for a freshly
charged one in 3 minutes at any of the NIO owned battery stations as a way for NIO
to excel no matter competition from the others in China including TSLA. NIO is now selling
cars in Scandinavia which should serve as steeping stone to further expansion in Europe.
UCAR a penny China stock now at bottom 300X upside LONGUCAR, a NASDAQ penny stock and a Chinese auto dealership enterprise is experiencing a huge
relative volume spike. UCAR had a great week in very active trading.
Now priced at about 0.07 per share, my near term target is 1.58
representing a consolidation pivot on the chart.
The all time high is the is 300X upside more or less. This is a risky play. It could get delisted
although NASDAQ will give it some more quarterly reports to make a case for regulatory
compliance and stock price stability I will take a small position here given the
risk. Warren Buffet got in on the cheap with BYD over the counter, he has been massively
rewarded for his very large position. Retail traders can make good profits with undervalued
penny stocks. I think that this right now is one of them. I will use a zig zag strategy
to take profits at high pivots and add into the position at low pivots along the way.
China CSI 1000 Index - Opportunity or Collapse?The long view on the China CSI 1000 Index
▫️ The lows of 2018 at $4,065 have not been taken out
▫️ Price is currently at $4,293 above this level
🚨The RSI has reached its most oversold level ever reaching down to a sub 17 level.
Is this an opportunity or a collapse?
YANG ( a 3X leveraged inverse China megacap ETF ) LONGYANG on a 240 minute chart had a reverse head and shoulders pattern last summer. Price rose
over the neckline in November and hit an increased trend angle at that time. With a set of
VWAP bands anchored to the neckline cross, TANG had pulled back twice to the mean VWAP
where it found support, the latter of which was this past week. While price is currently at
15.5, I could reasonably forecast another rise to the second upper VWAP bandline at 18.00 or
about 16% upside. Price rose more than 4% today and 20% YTD for January.
Fundamentally, China is in a recession. Additionally, the terror and tension in the Red Sea
has increased shipping costs and diminished shipping volumes through the Suez Canal a
a major gateway to the Eurozone markets or even Western Russia. The CCP has pleaded directly
to Iran about this as the whole situation is worsening the China economy ( among others)
The idea of China launching a gold standard currency seems to be out of the news at least for
now. What is still on the table is Chinese interests in Taiwanese reunification. Any military
action would basically flush Chinese stocks into nothingness because a trade war would ensue
if not WW III. This lingering in at background is a drag on the China stocks.
I see YANG as a safe bet now with an entry just above VWAP with a stop loss above it
and 18.00 for the target.
Morgan Stanley rated A the Ping An Insurance for secong year
Revenue: $156.2 billion
Net Income: $14.7 billion
Market Cap: $114.8 billion
1-Year Trailing Total Return: ~7.5%
Exchange: OTC Markets
According to Investopedia, it is the 3rd biggest Chinese company and in the top 5 insurance companies in the world
Ping An Insurance provides insurance, financial services, and banking. It is one of the top 50 companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Founded in 1988, it was China's first joint-stock insurance company.
Its subsidiaries include Ping An Life, Ping An Property & Casualty, Ping An Annuity, and Ping An Health.
Hong Kong and Shanghai, Nov. 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, a powerhouse in the insurance sector, proudly declares its stellar achievement in the latest Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Ratings by Morgan Stanley Capital Investment (MSCI). Securing an A rating for the second consecutive year, Ping An reaffirms its commitment to sustainable practices. Notably, the Group maintains its top-tier position in the multi-line insurance & brokerage industry in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This accolade underscores Ping An's unwavering dedication to excellence and responsible corporate citizenship. Investors take note of Ping An's remarkable ESG track record as it continues to lead the way in the industry.
Ping An takes proactive steps in addressing climate change challenges, utilizing its integrated finance capabilities to advance green finance initiatives and support China's ambitious targets of achieving "carbon peak and neutrality in 2030 and 2060 respectively." In responsible investment, Ping An implements the active ownership principle, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into research, analysis, and investment decisions. The company actively oversees and participates in ESG management for portfolio companies, ensuring their healthy development. By June 2023, Ping An's green investments in insurance assets reached an impressive RMB140.929 billion.
The current entry-level is looking promising being close to the all-time lows with much higher upside potential than the downward one.
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Navigating Alibaba's TurbulenceAlibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ), a behemoth in the Chinese e-commerce and technology landscape, has recently faced tumultuous times, and investors find themselves at a crossroads.
The Current Landscape:
Alibaba, often referred to as "China's Amazon," has witnessed a significant downturn, with its stock plunging 39% over the past year. The broader concerns surrounding U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and regulatory challenges, have cast a shadow over Alibaba and its peers. The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF, reflecting the performance of Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., has seen a notable decline of 23% in the last year.
Amidst the storm, the intriguing question arises: Does Alibaba's current valuation, trading at a Price/Earnings ratio of 10, present an irresistible opportunity or a potential pitfall?
The Bull Case and its Obstacles:
Previously, Alibaba's ambitious plan to spin off six of its business units held promise for unlocking shareholder value. However, the cancellation of the spinoff of its cloud business, coupled with the halt of plans for its Freshippo grocery retail chain, has injected a dose of uncertainty. The announcement led to a sharp decline in Alibaba's stock in November, emphasizing the significant hurdles posed by expanded U.S. restrictions on exports of computer chips.
The Journey Ahead:
As investors weigh the potential rewards against the risks, a careful examination of Alibaba's long-term performance offers valuable insights. The stock has experienced a staggering 71% decline over the past three years, remaining down 53% over the last five years and off 19% since September 2014.
Strategic Decisions and the Road to Recovery:
Alibaba's strategic decisions, particularly the cancellation of key spinoffs, warrant cautious consideration. The wait-and-see approach suggested by analysts underscores the importance of clarity around China's economic recovery and resolution of other China-related issues.
Conclusion:
Alibaba's journey through the volatile landscape of U.S.-China relations and regulatory challenges presents both risks and opportunities. As investors grapple with the decision of whether to buy, sell, or hold Alibaba stock, a nuanced understanding of the company's strategic moves, the broader economic context, and the wisdom encapsulated in analyst recommendations is essential. The path ahead for Alibaba is uncertain, but for investors willing to weather the storm, the potential rewards may be substantial.