Cobalt - Long; There is no such thing as a "cobalt mine"Cobalt occurs as a metal mining byproduct - mainly copper, zinc, etc. -, 80% of the world production is centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo - which is neither democratic nor a republic, or a state. (It's claim to fame is perpetual genocides, an endless civil war, accompanied with abject poverty.)
70% of cobalt refining capacity accompanied with worldwide cobalt mining interests is held by China. In short, the DRC has the cobalt and China owns the DRC.
The market recently became awash with the metal and prices promptly collapsed to multi-year lows. However, ...
... what about the "EV revolution"? ... (Which, I contend, is pure fiction on the scale as it is being imagined or rather, fantasized. But that's a longer story.)
The fundamental factors - i.e. the physics/chemistry - remain the same;
Lithium, the main component in almost every kind of electricity storage apparatus - i.e. batteries - is one of the least energy dense metal in the periodic table of elements. (Look at it's electron configuration and it will be immediately clear.) A pure lithium battery would be as effective as pissing into the wind. I.e. Lithium must be alloyed with something, most commonly with cobalt.
Long story short, there are two (2) potential plays here;
1) Glencore (OTC:GLNCY) - Long; The main chart; Watch for that Double-top at $14, though!
2) China Molybdenum (OTC:CMCLF) - Long; Should one trust the Chinese? ... (Might care to factor that in!)
Chinastocks
Buying CN50 at trend of higher lows.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13540 (stop at 13470)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
The trend of higher lows is located at 13455.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns.
We look to buy dips.
Our profit targets will be 13740 and 14235
Resistance: 14235 / 15080 / 16150
Support: 13110 / 12645 / 12070
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TME: VCP Pattern / PowerPlaySetup: PowerPlay
VCP: 4W 14/5 2T
RS: 98
Contraction 2 is setting up after the turn (trendline). China stocks are leading!
The posted chart contains a VCP (volatility contraction pattern). The first label "W" stands for weekly and shows the duration of the entire consolidation. In the middle label, the percentage of contractions is indicated (for example, "15/4"), with 15 representing the -15% depth of the base and 4 representing -4% of the last contraction. The last part "T" represents the number of contractions. The light blue lines in the chart correspond to the contractions. A more detailed description can be found in Mark Minervini's books.
RS stands for relative strength and measures the strength of the stock compared to the overall market. The value range is 1-99 with 99 being the highest value. The rank was generated by fyntrade.
BABA Short IdeaGood setup for a short. Equity reached highs of the last run and starting to stumble while market ripping and showing some reversial potential here. Also not surprising is that it was one of the leaders in the up move and now is signalling where the market may go next. Red line SL, green lines TP 1, and 2, respectively. GL
$EDU: Bearsh ABCD into Bearish ABCD BAMM with 98% DownsideThis stock looks like it's setting up to lose pretty much all of it's current value below the moving averages and the Bearish ABCD with Bearish Divergence along with Hidden Bearish Divergence on the Weekly. There's also the terrible Earnings and there's just no justifying how bad it is. If this Bearish ABCD plays out then i'd expect an ABCD BAMM Movement down to around $0.75 i'll play it via long-dated puts.
COVID Zero Softening ? $BABAI'm following $BABA since a while for now and I think that is one of the biggest companies in the sector. China has a lot a potencial but we have to achive some millestones before we breakout this endless falling we're suffering. I'm LONG $BABA from this point. Perhaps until 85$ where the POC developes.
LKNCY - Breakout Entered Advance StageLKNCY has made a powerful breakout from its accumulation zone. This breakthrough came on the back of strong quarterly earnings, positive net income, and growing revenue.
INTRODUCTION:
LKNCY is a strong rival of Starbucks in China. It is rapidly adding new stores, reaching the nationwide number of nearly 8,000. In contrast, Starbucks has 6,000 stores in China despite its decades-long presence.
BREAKOUT & ADVANCE STAGE:
When a stock enters Advance Stage (called as Stage-2), its movement gets fast particularly when it is supported by strong earnings. LKNCY stayed in Accumulation Zone (Stage-1) rangebound for almost 2 years while the company did not post positive earnings for many years. But now, it has broken the resistance of accumulation stage, and entered advance stage on the back of impressive quarterly earnings.
EARNINGS GROWTH
Luckin's post-quarter revenue is up 18% while post-quarter earning has expanded a whopping 561%. Its earning trend and footprint growth in China shows it to be a truly growth stock. It has had negative margin for the past few years which kept its price growth lurking and slow. However, its revenue growth has never slowed down because of its rapid expansion and widening customer base.
FUTURE PROSPECTS
Although not enough data is available about the future growth of LKNCY, its current growth trend reveal good prospects for the future. Its technicals are sound and financials are rapidly improving.
HSI Anticipating lower high Weekly Analysis, looking for a lower high compared to 22565 with Weekly Hidden Bearish Divergence on both RSI & MACD
Using retraces for entries, tight stop at the .786 in case of possible reversal and full position at the .886
If you agree or disagree with the setup, please let me know and explain ! We're all here to learn and grow off each other!
PDD is following Up-Trending ChannelAfter following long-term down-trending channel, PDD has now taken successful reversal.
It is now:
1. Following an up-trending channel
2. Has completed Golden cross (50 MA crossed above 200 MA)
3. Has support of positivity in Chinese market
4. Has support of improving financial performance
Have any questions? Please feel free to ask in the comments.
Refer my previous article to know more about PDD.
PDD - Read to Fly?
PDD is ready to fly. Here are some solid reasons:
REASON 1 - Accumulation Completed
Down since February 2021, this e-commerce platform of China has taken a reversal. Entered accumulation zone in March 2022, now enough buying volumes and positive earnings have pushed it out of the accumulation zone. Breakout has occurred at 73 USD key price level, and so now stock seems to have entered advance zone while the key long-term resistance (All Time High) is at 214 USD - a gain of more than 100% possible.
REASON 2 - Higher Revenues & Net Income
The real fuel is provided by better earnings and further higher expectations in the future. Revenue has grown 23% in TTM while income has swelled 260% in TTM - both are impressive signals of continued growth. Further pedestal is provided by positive expectations of end of lock-down in China which can open-up locked industrial growth.
Risk
Still caution is needed as markets aren't out of wood.
FUTU - Breakout for Big Jump (150% Gain)Futu - a Chinese online brokerage & wealth management platform has finally broken its resistance of accumulation zone forming an ascending-triangle chart pattern.
This stock has tremendous potential. Let's know why:
1. Accumulation Completed
Futu entered accumulation stage (stage 1) somewhere in December 2021 following a steep fall inline with general market decline. Its growth was contained. But after a long accumulation period of about 1 year it has finally broken its accumulation zone with ascending triangle pattern, and has swiftly entered advanced stage (stage 2). One word of caution here: Buying volumes are not so high, but golden cross is imminent.
2. Earnings
Futu's revenues, which had slowed down in FY-2022, have again geared up with PQ growth of 11% in the recent quarter. Likewise, net income has grown 17%. These increases are not so high as they were in the previous years when Futu did mind-boggling growth, but mild gains are quite possible. Moreover, as it is a fast growing brokerage platform, its growth will resonate with the general market growth.
China A50 set for a corrective bounce?The China A50 has rallied over 13% since the October low and has since retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An elongated bullish Pinbar formed yesterday which shows strong demand around the bullish engulfing candle and marking a potential swing low within a bullish retracement channel. We are now looking for a break above 12,350 to assume bullish continuation and a move back towards the 13,000 resistance zone.
This could be the final move of a 3-wave correction, before it reverts to its bearish trend.
LU Lufax Holding Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the LU Lufax Holding options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $2.5 strike price Calls with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$0.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
LU Lufax Most Undervalued Chinese StockFor the China reopening thesis i think LU Lufax Holding is the one of the most undervalued stocks you can own right now! And i will tell you why!
LU Lufax Holding has a ridiculous PE Ratio (TTM) of only 1.81!
The Forward Dividend & Yield is 0.51 (21.79%)!
Last year the stock was $18.30. It has lost most than 90% of its value, while the business is growing and pays dividends.
The yield alone is a big gain, even if the price stays flat.
Last year Morgan Stanley had a price target for LU of $13 while JPMorgan Chase of $15.
3rd biggest shareholder is BlackRock, with an estimated average of $6.11.
You can but the stock now 3 times cheaper than BlackRock.
The average daily volume in the past 3 months is high, more than $10Mil daily (i think someone is accumulating).
My price target is the $7.10 resistance. I believe LU is a premium call.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!