Contains IO script
$SPY - "Broken Wedges Become Channels"There are reasons for it. I could go into it all. I don't have the energy. This isn't advice. You are responsible for your own investments and allocations and whatnot. I'm just sharing what I do. We will most likely see a channel first. I buy channel bottoms. I am not perfect. They only thing I try to perfect is my position allocation. I will be buying when it makes sense to me.
TOTAL and PROFITS short story
Today is another red day for crypto. This shows how easy it is for us to get carried away with the good feelings of green days and forget about days like these. Taking profits makes so much sense now as a trader. But that’s not all—we need to keep those profits for future entries, and good entries, not the kind driven by FOMO, greed, or revenge.
A lot of work needs to be done on our personalities just to stay in this game long enough to make it. This self-improvement can be tricky and tiring, which is why time in the game is so important. And time in the game is made possible by profit-taking. Taking profits gives us the breathing room to work on ourselves with the help of the markets.
It’s not easy, my fellow traders, but let’s hope for better, greener days ahead.
A little bit of TA on TOTAL (Daily Time Frame): the system is switching short because the PSAR is red and above the price. The only thing we can do now is wait for the price to stabilize—no price targets, just wait and see what happens.
Take care, my fellow traders. See you on the other side of the top.
Sentiment Cycle Indicator Performance (PAID)Performance Analysis of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator
1. Trend Identification:
• The indicator has effectively highlighted bullish and bearish sentiment zones, as shown by the green (bullish) and red (bearish) background shading. This visual clarity makes it easy for traders to identify the prevailing market sentiment at a glance.
2. Buy and Sell Signals:
• The Buy signals are well-timed, capturing upward price movements, especially during key reversal zones.
• The Sell signals occur consistently in areas where bearish momentum starts to dominate, allowing traders to exit or short positions effectively.
3. Key Trades Observed:
• Buy Example: Around the recent low near $100,000, the indicator generated a buy signal right before a significant upward move, aligning well with the trend shift.
• Sell Example: Near $105,000, the indicator provided a sell signal ahead of a downward move, protecting traders from holding during the drop.
4. Market Choppiness Handling:
• Even during sideways or choppy markets, the indicator avoids excessive false signals due to its clear sentiment zone shading, helping traders stay on the right side of the market.
Why This Indicator Stands Out
1. Simplifies Complex Market Trends:
• By combining sentiment analysis with buy/sell signals, the indicator provides traders with a comprehensive toolkit for decision-making.
2. Dynamic Market Adaptation:
• The indicator adapts to real-time price movements, ensuring timely and accurate signals without lagging.
3. Perfect for Scalping and Swing Trading:
• Traders can use the sentiment zones for scalping in smaller timeframes and for swing trading over longer horizons.
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
#ENA: Unlocking the Power of Smart EnergyDescription:
This trading idea highlights ENA, a cryptocurrency designed to revolutionize the energy sector by integrating blockchain technology into smart grid systems. ENA focuses on creating a decentralized platform for energy trading, enabling peer-to-peer transactions, and fostering transparency in renewable energy distribution. By leveraging blockchain, ENA aims to reduce inefficiencies in traditional energy markets, promoting sustainability and innovation. As the demand for clean energy solutions grows globally, ENA is positioned to capture attention with its strong use case and potential for adoption in smart energy networks.
It is important to acknowledge that the cryptocurrency market is volatile and subject to external factors, such as regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions, which may impact prices. Investors should approach trading ENA with a clear strategy and proper risk management to navigate potential market fluctuations effectively.
Disclaimer:
This trading idea is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies like ENA involves significant risk, including the possibility of a complete loss of capital. Always perform thorough research, consider your financial situation, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SPY Crashed Today: Where Will It Head Tomorrow? (Dec. 19)The market witnessed a steep decline today, with SPY reflecting significant selling pressure. This crash-driven move indicates a pivotal shift in market sentiment, raising questions about support levels and potential recovery zones.
Market Structure Analysis
* Trend Overview: The daily chart shows SPY breaking below its ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction.
* Volume: An extraordinary spike in sell-side volume highlights panic selling and a possible capitulation phase.
* Sentiment: Sentiment appears bearish in the short term, driven by macroeconomic fears.
Supply and Demand Zones
* Demand Zone: $577–$580 (critical for any potential bounce).
* Supply Zone: $602–$607 (will act as immediate resistance on recovery attempts).
Order Blocks and Support/Resistance
* Key Resistance:
* $591: A psychological and structural level.
* $602: High volume node and previous breakdown level.
* Key Support:
* $580: Near-term support; failure to hold could test $572.
* $567: A crucial lower-level support.
Key Indicators
* EMA:
* 9 EMA and 21 EMA crossed bearish, confirming short-term downtrend momentum.
* MACD:
* Deep in bearish territory, momentum remains strongly negative.
* RSI:
* Oversold on multiple timeframes, signaling potential for a technical bounce.
Options Flow and GEX
* Put Wall: Significant at $590 and $580 levels, suggesting bearish bias remains strong.
* Call Wall: $604–$607, indicating heavy resistance if price retraces upward.
* Gamma Exposure (GEX): Negative, reinforcing current bearish momentum.
Scalping vs. Swing Outlook
* Scalping:
* Look for intraday bounces from $580 to $586 with tight stop-loss below $578.
* Swing Trading:
* Wait for confirmation of bottoming signals near $577 before entering long. Bearish positions remain valid below $590.
Actionable Suggestions
1. Short-Term Bullish:
* Entry: Near $580 support.
* Exit: Around $586–$588 resistance.
* Stop-Loss: Below $578.
2. Short-Term Bearish:
* Entry: On rejection at $590.
* Exit: Target $580 or lower.
* Stop-Loss: Above $592.
Conclusion
SPY's break of key support levels indicates a bearish short-term outlook. However, oversold conditions suggest a technical bounce could occur in the $577–$580 range. Monitor key levels and macro catalysts closely before positioning.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
QQQ Crash Technical Analysis (TA) for Dec. 19Market Overview
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) experienced a significant market drop today, reflecting a bearish sentiment in technology-heavy indices. The broader sell-off has pushed QQQ down to critical technical levels, where a combination of support zones and gamma exposure levels could offer insights for the next trading sessions.
Market Structure Analysis
* Daily Chart: QQQ broke below its recent upward channel support at $525, with today's close significantly below the 9-EMA and 21-EMA, signaling bearish momentum.
* Hourly Chart: A sharp sell-off occurred during today's session, with a brief recovery toward $517. However, the current volume profile indicates strong selling pressure near the $525 resistance.
Supply and Demand Zones
* Immediate Resistance Zones:
* $525.60: Prior support turned resistance, aligning with the gamma exposure wall and heavy put wall.
* $533.14: Additional resistance, coinciding with the upper range of today’s intraday high.
* Support Zones:
* $515: Intraday low support aligning with the highest negative gamma exposure (NETGEX) level.
* $507 and $505: Key demand zones visible from previous consolidations and gamma support.
Order Blocks and Key Levels
* Bearish Order Block: $525 to $533 range has seen consistent selling pressure, forming a robust resistance.
* Bullish Rejection Level: $512-$515 acts as a psychological support zone.
Key Indicators
* MACD: The MACD on both daily and hourly charts has crossed bearishly, with increasing momentum to the downside.
* RSI: Hourly RSI has entered oversold territory (~30), indicating a possible short-term bounce.
* EMAs (9 & 21): The price remains significantly below both EMAs on all timeframes, confirming the bearish bias.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Activity
* Put Wall: The $519 level represents the highest concentration of puts, acting as immediate resistance.
* Gamma Exposure (GEX):
* Negative GEX levels between $515 and $520 amplify downward pressure.
* Above $525, calls dominate, potentially limiting further upside.
Scalping vs. Swing Outlook
* Scalping Strategy:
* Look for short entries near $525 with tight stop losses above $526.
* Potential target zones: $517, $515, and $512.
* Swing Strategy:
* Wait for confirmation of a close above $525 to consider bullish recovery.
* Downside swing target: $505 if $512 support breaks.
Actionable Suggestions
1. Short Setup:
* Entry: Near $525.
* Stop-Loss: Above $526.
* Target: $515, $507.
2. Bullish Setup:
* Entry: On confirmation above $525.
* Stop-Loss: Below $520.
* Target: $533.
Conclusion
QQQ is in a precarious technical position, reflecting broader market weakness. A further break below $512 could accelerate the downtrend, while a reclaim of $525 could initiate a short-term recovery.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly before making trading decisions.
Two Types of UptrendsSony Group (6758) - Weekly Chart
There are two types of uptrends within an overall upward trend.
This statement might sound confusing at first.
What I mean is that there are "easy-to-understand" uptrends and "difficult" uptrends.
The chart shows two blue circles.
Which one represents an easy-to-understand chart, and which one represents a difficult chart?
Opinions might differ, but I feel the chart on the left is easy to understand, while the one on the right is more difficult.
The reason is that on the left, the pullback buying (buying on dips) continues, and there are no clear exit points.
On the other hand, the right side ultimately trends upward, but the trend doesn't sustain, making it hard to hold a position.
So, how should we deal with such situations?
Since this is a weekly chart, one option is to monitor it with a swing trading approach using the daily chart.
However, when faced with a difficult chart, you also have the option of walking away from that stock instead of forcing a strategy.
Focusing on finding easy-to-read charts and trading only in straightforward situations can often lead to better results.
Keep in mind that this is one way to think about trading.
AUS200 Long Trade SetupPrice made a decent bounce of the H4 timeframe. On the H1 perspective, we have a clear liquidity sweep of the previous swing low at 8248, and a break of structure of the previous high at 8295.
If we can get a corrective pullback towards the market imbalance zone, we have a potential buy trade setup against the invalidation level at 8222 swing low.
Bearish USDT.D Bounce Off Support Trendline, Total 2 + Total3 Here's a follow up study to my USDT.D analysis from a few weeks ago, showing the markets typically sell off and put in a near term market top when Tether Dominance bounces off this key trendline (since 2018).
This is likely a sign of further downside on Bitcoin and the Total Market Cap with a further 20% correction likely before we bounce again. Hopefully in time for a Santa Claus Rally.
Also I look at how price clearly rejected on the Total 2 and Total 3 Market Cap's at the old ATH's from 2021. So it's no surprise markets are selling off here.
I've been saying 'Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news' for years...
So while Powell's comments today were Bearish, it was incidental.
The market needed a cooldown, and the FOMC comments today were just the catalyst.
Let me know what you think below, and go ahead and like the video if you'd like me to do more of these here on the TV channel.
For more about us, check out the links in my Bio.
Bitcoin hangin out at the topHappy Holidays Tradingview Peeps!
Yep, bitcoin at the top of this channel
Will we see a pullback to the bottom of this channel? 40K
OR
Can we see a break out with continuation?
Lets see the volume!
The RSI is Over bought....
Can we get a Santa Rally!
or a Grinch Pull Back! LOL!
Merry Xmas!
Have a blessed and safe one!
Lets go 2024!
You Got To Be Aware
Good Luck Out There
S&P500 ETF SPY Testing Support📉 ** AMEX:SPY Testing Key Support!** 📈
The **S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY )** is pressing against a critical support level — the **green trendline** that's been a pivotal bounce zone for months. Will it hold or break? 🤔
🔍 **What’s driving the move?**
- 🔥 **Hawkish FOMC Outlook**: The Fed now sees **fewer rate cuts in 2025 (2 vs. 3 expected)**, keeping rates higher for longer.
- 📢 **Geopolitical Risks**: Powell noted some Fed members are factoring in possible **Trump-era policy risks** (think tariffs & deportation) into their forecasts.
- ⚠️ **Market Reaction**: Growth stocks are under pressure as higher rates impact valuations.
📊 **Why It Matters?**
- If AMEX:SPY holds the support, we could see a technical rebound. 🚀
- A breakdown below the green line could signal further downside risk. 📉
👉 **Traders, are you buying the dip or waiting for the break?**
Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
ETHUSD 12h 20% pullback SHORT from BEAR Order Block🔸Hello traders, today let's review 12hour price chart for ETHUSD . strong gains recently off the range lows ,however currently upside
limited by heavy sell side liquidity / order block at 3800/3850 usd.
🔸Trading right now at 3660 USD, impressive recovery off the lows
however sell side liquidity / order block at 3800/3850 caps immediate
upside, therefore bulls should be cautious with new buys since
I'm expecting pullback once we trigger overhead liquidity.
🔸Recommended strategy: SHORT SELL from overhead resistance
at 3800/3850 USD, SL 3950 USD, TP1 3550 TP2 3150 USD. 20%
unleveraged gains off the highs, expecting pullback. good luck!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
COIN NEOWAVE ANALYSIS (DAILY)Experimental analysis with the intention to follow back later on as I am still learning
After posting the weekly chart, I decided to take a look at the daily chart to see if I could spot any clues,
Initially, it looked like an expanding triangle, but after reviewing it thoroughly, it did not meet the requirements.
The only other formation that could fit this structure is a terminal impulse.
In this scenario, Wave 3 is the extended wave, doubling the size of Wave 1.
Typically, when Wave 3 is extended, Wave 5 tends to equal the length of Wave 1. If not, then Wave 1 will usually be either 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave 5.
With this in mind, I would anticipate a minimum 20% upside, a 35% medium target, and a maximum target around 65%.
Obviously, we can only get a real target once wave 4 is over.
I do expect this terminal pattern to be part of a complex correction featuring an X wave, or to be the first leg of a larger corrective structure.
If you read my weekly analysis, you will understand that this complex correction will end wave G, which would end the B wave. This daily chart hints at a stronger B wave, which would put COIN in a bullish long-term trend.
Note: Since this is a daily chart, the probabilities of failure are even.
The only trades we need!Watching these levels closely for a continuation or reversal. For each idea we need to see a 5m+ BOS at the very least for engagement.
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I will be doing an analysis video when I have the time, hopefully this weekend.
Christmas preparation and lessons have been taking up all my time.
See you soon guys and girls!