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COT

SXY (Swiss Franc) Swissie So, the Swiss Franc is generally used as a reserve currency. Something different from The Reserve Currency, but similiar. During times of high volatility investors look to throw their money in safe haven currencies like the Swiss to protect from the wild whipsaws of the market. So, here on the swiss there are no Harmonic Patterns to speak of so the COT data will have to work. So, what we have is the Swissie is the Non-Coms took a major step foraward toward the Zero Line. The commercials have further increased their longs to 16,366 which is a 1,934 increase from 14,432 and the Non-Coms are really increasing their shorts by double. We went from 4,375 to 8,697 orders short which is an increase of 4,322. Now on to the Net data: the Commercials: current- (4,280) // Previous- (7,754) Non-Coms Current- 1,766 // Previous- 8,989 So as you can see we have taken major steps to the zero line especially in regards to the Non-Coms which i think the Swiss' bull run is coming to an end, and it might be wise to plan on shorting the Swiss here pretty soon.
TVC:SXY
by ARegularGuy
JXY (Yen Index) On the Yen Index we are seeing some play off the 50%. there are no Harmonic Patterns currently on the Index but off the Fibo. so for the monday trap move we can have a move up to the 50 and then reverse. The Commercials have increased their longs by 10,000 orders. Now, an interesting thing on the Non-Coms side of things is that the Shorts marginally increased thier side while the Longs probably took profit or recorded their loses. they decreased their position (13,096) which leaves room for downward momentum with ease. So again there is not much room for PA to touch the 50% retrace then I do see price moving down quite rapidly! on to the Net Data Commercials- Current = (13,302) // previous (28,488) Non-Coms- Current- 17,462 // previous- 32,579 from the net positions it looks like the sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line
TVC:JXYShort
by ARegularGuy
EXY (Euro Index) The Euro backs the Dollar Index (DXY) by something of 50 something percent on the chart we see a gartley pattern that has completed and on the way down. Now Scott Carney, whom i think is next chartist genius next to Gann, Elliot, Dow, and Gartley. He was able to take all their readings and somehow make one of the most traded or talked about trading systems in the world. so much so tradingview teamed up with him yeas ago to help develop the harmonics drawings tool i use today, and the craziest thing about it is he came out with system in his early 30's. and what makes this even better is he is still alive running harmonic trader.com. enough about Scott Carney i think that the pattern is completing a type 1 setup. So what im thinkning is Monday we will move to the 382 tuesday indecesion candle rest of the week retrace to the PRZ and the week after we might see a bigger move down. the fundamental data the COT The Commercial Shorts are drvining the prices of the euro HIGH we a whopping 20,000 orders short!!! the longs to stop price was only a 1/5 of what the shorts did. the Non-Coms are increasing their longs by 10,000 orders driving prices way higher insync with the commercials. so here is the net data Commercials- Current= (133,718) // Previous= (117,198) Non-Commercials- Current= 95, 649 // Previous= 81,240 Needless to say any buys on the Euro is a good decesion, prices are still going higer and higher. any dips in price are just that a Dip. might be an oppritunity to hop on a speeding train. i would not hold on to this pattern longer than the 382 retracement of the pattern
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy
DXY (Dollar Index) Here on the Dollar Index we have a deep crab pattern (it was drawn on the smaller timeframes). price came down to the HOP and was rejected! Now what we can see (and will be backed by the COT data later in the post) is the dollar fall a bit more to retest the level and might have a rebound. Now, on to the COT data. we have the Commercials increasing thier longs while the Non-Coms are selling the supply to those buyers driving price down. the Longs increased thier longs by 3600 orders and the non-comms increased thier shorts by a whopping 6500 orders. So, there is a good chance this pattern will fail. but again i do expect the dollar to retreat to the HOP again before it makes a decesion on what way it wants to go. so here is the net data: Commercials: Current- (5,328) // previous- (8867) Non- Coms Current- 4689 // previous- 8,258 So, all in all any positions buying the dollar is illadvised still hold on to the shorts if you have them becasue i think this is a minor correction we currently see on the charts. so we might see some monday manipulation with price going up possibly stalling out tuesday and possible reverse wednesday.
TVC:DXY
by ARegularGuy
CXY (Canadian Dollar Index) Loonie Okay, here is why I decided to learn and study the COT. the pattern is a bearish bat pattern with a permissible tolerance of 3% of the B-point. Its a gorgeous pattern and could possibly go long term; however, i dont see it happeneing. The pattern is showing a sell and the COT which reports the big players positions a potential buy. so i would say approach the CAD with caution. while this pair transitions. The COT report shows us that the Loonie Tune players are stepping closer to the Zero line again this week. Indicating that the Loonie could enter a Bullish trend. Now this makes sense as we're enteing the Summer Months here in the US and above the equator (or however you spell it) so travel is going to increase. Now, SARS 2 is running amuck and not being checked, the government here in the US is trying to tighten down restrictions, but i dont see the American People obeying such orders too much longer. I dont think we will ever truly know the mortality rate of SARS 2 in the US as they decided to provide hospitals with additional funding for SARS 2 related treatments so it seems like someone can test postitve but die from a carcrash and the hospital will code it as a COVID-19 related death to earn some extra money. I suspect this is happeneing all over the world and so i truly think the numbers are highly influxed. until the funding stops we will never know. so maybe in a few years when the extra funding has stopped we will see the true numbers and thats not including the shotty testing methods and the questionable regaents being used. with all that being said... travel is going to pick up LOL and its no seceret that the Canadians are exporting more than maple syrup. Their #1 export is oil and they sell the majority to us the US. Oil is struggling but is finding its footing. So, therefore, the Loonie will too. here is the COT Data the Commercials on the Producers and Consumers have reduced thier positions and have taken a decent step closer to the Zero line while the Non-Commercials are marching forward in stride as well. the Comercial Net Data the Current= 25,110 // the previous = 32,240 the non-commercial current= (24,829) // previous = (33,138) so, we can clearly see the sides are marching closer and closer to the Zero line; therefore the Loonie, will get stronger. So, the pattern might be a good setup for catching some high risk manipulation pips or we could see this as relief of the commercials allowing PA to renter the PRZ for it to truly drive down. But, again with the summer here and travel picking up regardless of travel restrictions i see oil picking up and so will the Canadian Dollar.
TVC:CXYShort
by ARegularGuy
AXY (Aussie Dollar Index) Ok, the Aussie currently is currently getting rejected from the major resistance level. there is no real harmonic pattern to draw so here is the COT analysis. i think the aussie might be making moves to switch sides the open interest increased by 3500 orders the Commercial Longs reduced their positions by 4500 orders while the commercial shorts increased their orders by 5600 orders. So, unlike The Cables index the BXY the AXY looks to be adding orders to their respective opposite sides looking to switch sides. the Non-Commercials are looking at the same. NonCom longs increased their position long by 3300 orders while the shorts reduced thier side by 800 orders. Now lets remember the Non-Commercials are for profit and pay taxes as such, to where the Commercials are hedging for rate locks and profit protection from actual business they conduct inter-business-ly (if thats even a word) so as it stands for the Aussie the Net numbers are as follows: Commercials- Current = 43,641 // Previous = 53,852 Non-Coms - Current= (36,575) // Previous- (40,791) So, i reckon if you have any trades against the Aussie it might be a wise decesion to close them out and book profit or take small loss, i dont see the Aussie Weakening this coming week. we might see some minor drawdown but thats about the extent of it the the commercials are switching sides with the non-commercials. remember this is a long process becasue big business and banks just cant switch sides over-night it would crash the world economy so look at it as each week they take a big step toward the Zero Line and then swich sides. during this process we will see that pair get stronger and stronger and before you know it youre in a bull trend when everyone can see it then its time to switch sides again.
TVC:AXYLong
by ARegularGuy
BXY (British Pound) Here we have the BXY or the Pound Index. Im not gonna pretend i know what curriencies make up the BXY its worth a google if you want to know. But what we have here Is an Alternate bat pattern that tested the HOP and was rejected. I am gussing the pattern will drive down to the 382 retracement of this pattern and then start moving up. I say this becasue when you look at the COT report the Commercials reduced their positions from 136k orders to 127k orders while the shorts marginally increased theirs about 1,600 orders. the Non-Commercials, which are the fuel for the trend, reduced their short side by 10k orders bringing their value from 63,000 short to about 52,900 short. this is a siginificant deal. so when you look at the net positions for both which is what most COT traders do then we have the following stats for The Cable... Commercials Current= 34,112 // previous = 44,403 Non-Commercials Current = (24,048) // Previous= (36,044) I think this is nothing more than the commercials delievering on contracts and the Non-Commercials taking profit. when you look at the COT index both sides were getting pretty close to the buy/ sell extremes respectively. So, all in all what i think we will see is price drive down to the 382 of this pattern monday possibly tuesday some minor consolidation tuesday possibly wednesday and some upward movement to finish out the week. So, i suggest any shorts on any pound trades clear them and wait for another chance to sell the pound again. I say this, becasue on the Commercial short side there were no large orders indicating a drive for a change in direction and you definetly dont see the profiteers loading up on the long side for the Non-Commercials. For my friends across the pond what do you guys have going on around this time of year, becasue i would like to know for future speculation. why would any big businesses in the UK be hedging against the pound to lock in a rate? like a rainy season, or dry season, major crop planting anything helps... thanks for reading!
TVC:BXYShort
by ARegularGuy
GBP/ USD Here on the Pound Dollar (GBP/ USD) we have an Bearish Alternate Bat pattern. Honestly i drew this pattern earlier this week and i cant remember the demensions. With the COT datat though this is an interesting pair. The dollar index is weakening and the Pound is already bearish. the current stats are (-8 867) and previous stats (-16 438) and these are the Net stats for the Commercials the current Non-Commercial are 8 258 and the previous 14 799 suggesting that the DXY is still in bullish terriroty but dramatically coming out.
Short
by ARegularGuy
GBP/ CHF On the Pound we have a Bearish Bat Pattern the top of the prz is the CD Leg max the 2.618 and the 886 is on the lower side. we see that price shot right through the PRZ and created a big wick PA came right to the HOP level of this pattern and was rejected. i wanna see the RSI go a bit lower and i do wanna see the HSI on the other side and in the upper extreme coming down. the COT Fundamental side of this is the Pound is losing strength becasue the commercials are building more orders on the long side which means price is driving lower and the Non-Commercials are driving the bus lower. With the open interest increasing. the CHF is gaining strength so i would like to hold this trade and ride the wave down. i watched this pair all week and broke even on my smaller pattern. it almost hit my TP1 and now waiting for the re-entry off this pattern.
Short
by ARegularGuy
Up Comming week COT analysis COT Data CHF- Commercials have relieved their long positions giving rise to more producers (shorts) to move around. We had some commercials close their positions, but there were no more entered afterward. The shorts are still providing fuel to the Non-Commercials to drive prices higher and the Non-Commercials are happily taking the supply. There were 1280 new orders opened for the CHF with 747 of them coming from the Commercials adding to their short hedges. In regards to the net positions this is what I was looking for last week. On the COT index the major players just switched sides and I was wanting to see both sides add to their bias to kinda confirm what we see. in regards to net positions the commercials are Current (7754) coming from (6,846) this increase will provide more supply on the market driving price up as the producers are in charge at the moment. The non-Commercials are at 8989 coming from 8739 its only a mere 250 order change so it might seem like buying is drying up, and it very well could be but on the line items the shorts took off 132 orders (not adding Open interest) while the Longs added 118 orders (which will add to the Open Interest). So in a nut shell we see the CHF producers from the Commercials still producing so the Non-Commercials might be a bit slow to buy leaving it up to the non-reportables to save the day LOL. GBP- On the Pound the Commercial Consumers are still in control forcing the Pound to become cheaper. This is not some commercials delivering product and closing contracts there were 1488 added to the open interest. The Commercial Consumers added 12377 new order their long bias while the producers only added a 1/4 of that. Surprisingly 12,000 orders came off the table on the Non-Commercial side going from 39,000 orders to 26,000 orders while the shorts are still driving down price with 63,000 orders coming from 61,500 orders. When you look at the net side of things the Commercial Consumers are still buying up supply while the Non-Commercials are still driving price down. It takes along time for the big curriencies to turn around but I would expect to see some of the GBP major Pairs start to consolidate or turn around. CAD- The United States’ Unofficial but Official supplier of oil. When you look at the Export of oil from Canada on the invoice it says US. The CAD Dollar is in a very interesting place right now the Commercial are about to be battling it out of control and this is probably why the Non-Commercials have both closed positions without re-entering the market. The Commercial Consumers added 1100 positions to their already existing 77,000 orders while the Commercial Producers have added a whopping 4961 orders to their side driving up thier 41,000 to 46,000 while the Non-Commercial shorts took off 2800 orders and the longs took off 2000 orders. The Non-Commercial Shorts are still driving price down but the COT index is nearing the Zero line so we might be seeing a trend change which is something we can see with oil. The Black Gold has been slowly gaining value but it has struggled in the past few weeks. JPY- Japan is the world leader in exporting electronics supplying the whole world with just stuff. and knowing that the conductors in the electronics use platinum or palladium I suspect as the precious metals begin to rise again so will their economy , not including the uses of the metals in emissions pieces in vehicles which Is japans #1 export. What we have is the Commercials delivering on their contracts and not opening up any more so we might be seeing a trend change to support my “theory” (which is a very cavalier way of using the term) but we see the non-commercials still buying up the supply still available driving their orders from 57,000 to 62,000. We also see the Non-Commercial shorts want to play as well coming in from 23,000 to 29,000. This is probably stalling the yen a bit but I do think we are gonna see the yen get stronger here in the next few weeks if not months. But the Commercial Shorts are still by far in control with 100,000 orders short. Driving the yen up. I suspect the yen is not as strong as it should be is because the non-commercials are a bit hesitant to buy. Eur- the Euro is strong as he**. Selling the Euro is probably not the wisest moves as a trader unless you’re a hedger. The Open interest increased by 26,000 orders and the Shorts are 429,000 orders short driving the Euro up through the roof. Some of the Non-Commercials booked profit on the long side and Some of the Non-Commercial shorts booked some losses. The Euro is a strong buy at this point in time. The Supply is out there. There is a nice Eur/Nzd Trade I have been waiting on to get in and this Report gives me a better feeling about it. NZD- if you did not know the Kiwis are some cowboys with the majority of thier economy coming from cows, pigs, and other food products. This is probably why their nickname is “Kiwi” anyways the Kiwi is getting stronger and I might have to wait on my Eur/Nzd trade until the Kiwi weakens the longs closed out 1400 positions while the shorts added 1400. Same story on the non-commercials 2100 orders were put into the Kiwi Longs driving the currency higher. But I do have a hard time thinking the Kiwi is really out muscling the Euro but the candles don’t lie. But good news is Both sides are drawing nearer to the Zero Line… so the trade could be happening sooner than later. This is all for the COT Analysis for this coming week. I’m keeping some out for myself but here are the Major pairs and their reports as I see them Good Luck!
TVC:DXYLong
by ARegularGuy
NZD/ USD I am still posting Part 2 of my COT Analysis. However, we have a bearish Deep Gartley that I charted what seems like months ago! the 886 lines up with the 88 swing point and the lower and the lower part of the PRZ. PA has tested the whole PRZ the HSI and AMP RSI are both at extremes. the HSI has conducted it checkback and now im waiting for the floor to open up. now the Fundamental Analysis: As I have stated in my previous analysis the Dollar Index by the COT is a bit stalled but it could be the Commercials and the Non-Commercials closing positions as the Open Interest is drawing down. the 30 year Bond Yield still has plenty of room to move up... However the Kiwi is still out weighed by the Commercials buying... however, the Non-Commercials are still selling the NZD but its slowing down too.
Short
by ARegularGuy
DXY (COT Analysis)Okay, here is the DXY or the Dollar Index. Part 1... This post is going to be quite long as it is going to serve as the post that introduces something im gonna try and update weekly. the COT Report. Now, i had no idea what the COT report was until i watched and looked at a very popular, here on TrdingView, trader's charts and saw his very useful indicator! I did my own research and thanks to another popular trader, again here on tradingview, who helped tremendously with providing some very useful resources i was able to learn about the COT. Now Here is going to be a trial, mainly for my own reference, to track which pairs too look out for. So without further wait: the USD Bias- Undecided Commercials - current== (16 438) and the previous == (18 407) Non-Commercials- Current== 14 799 and the previous== 17 297 Open Interest - current == 28 298 and the previous == 31 477 What does this mean? This means the Dollar is stalling right now. The open interest went down which suggests that both sides closed out positions without opening up new ones. the non commerciasl are still selling and the non-commercials are still buying which is giving us the slight rise in PA. However on the COT Index the Gap is closing between the Commercials and Non-Commercials., nd both sides are nearing the Zero Line. the last time this happened the Dollar fell to 86-87. This might be just a profit taking session to give the DXY a slight rest as the 30 year bond rate on the COT index the Commercial failed to take out their previous buying high set in april, so we could see bond rates go lower while the interest gets a bit higher attracting more investors into the American economy! The Euro Bias- Moderate Buy! Commercials- Current== (-106 256) previous ==(-102 594) change == (-3 662) Non-Com- Current== 75 222 previous== 72 562 change ==2 660 Open interest- current== 556 749 previous== 547 206 change== 9 543 What this tells us is that the Commercials are still selling to the Non-Commercials and this is deduced from the increase of the Open Intrest. The euro makes up ike 56% of the DXY and this currency is a moderate buy! now what i want to see is another increase in long orders so the COT index exceedes the current Buy level. Its no Seceret that Germany is the Back Bone of the Euro providing 20% to the Union Budget followed by France and the UK at 15%. Now Germany's main Export are cars and other electronics and Platinum and Palladium are main metals for those as they provide for conduction in the electronic compntes and for emission parts on cars. Both metals took a hit in price and Commercial and Non-Commercials have relieved both sides during COVID-19 making both metals cheaper. now when the economy opens back up i would not be shocked if the main compaines that make these pieces of equipment and cars to buy a surplus to Hedge their physical position causing a slight dip initially in their profit share only to expand in the long run causing the Euro to grow stronger as Germany offers more to the Union Budget. To Be Continued...
TVC:DXYLong
by ARegularGuy
EUR/ JPY (COT Trial) So, Here on the Euro/ Yen (EUR/ JPY) we have a Bat Pattern that PA has tested and bounced right out of it. Its quite a big pattern so it carrys some good weight. i have included the 1.27 abcd over extension which is toward the top of the PRZ and the 1618 and the ABCD pattern completed at the same spot. And the 886 is somewhere in the middle! so now on to the fundamental analysis part...(COT Trial) ------------------------------------------------------------------EURO COT REPORT --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Non-Commercial Commercial Total. Non-Reportable Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short 167,756 95,194 6,820 295,367 397,961 469,943 499,975 77,263 47,231 Changes (Change In Open Interest: -123 ) -4,224 +1,354 +332 +997. -2,866 -2,895 -1,180 +2,772 +1,057 (CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) Open Interest: 547,206 ------------------------------------------------------------YEN COT REPORT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non-Reportable Long Short Spreads Long. Short Long. Short Long Short 52,038 24,568 1,381 71,027 98,736 124,446 124,685 23,529 23,290 Changes (Change In Open Interest: -5,395 ) -4,269 -3,802 -30 -1,333 -2,863 -5,632 -6,695 +237 +1,300 (CONTRACTS OF JPY 12,500,000) Open Interest: 147,975 So here we have the COT reports of both pairs and again i pull this information off tradingster.com! so what we have is the hedge funds attempting to move the euro up with 164,xxx orders with another 24,xxx orders going against the Yen bringing the total to 188,xxx orders favoing the Euro or Against the Yen. Conversley, we have 95,xxx going against the Euro and 52,xxx orders favoring the yen (downward movement on the chart) bringing th total orders to 147,000 orders supporting the yen and going against the Euro. So, With this particular pattern i think with the way PA is looking now and the way the COTs are looking heavily favoring the Euro i could see PA coming back this week and retesting the PRZ and maybe even testing the Harmonic Optimal Price level before giving way to the Commercial traders and their whopping 400k orders short along with the yens 124k longs. this pattern will be very interesting to see how this COT trial plays with this pair!
Short
by ARegularGuy
1
AUDCHF Market Analysis In this analysis, from a weekly perspective the market had made a impulse move to the downside and corrected it with what seems like a W formation, from this I would like to see it go back to the neckline at least. It started rejection on the .786 Fib level, also with co relation to the COT (commitment of traders) report showing signs of the pair moving to the downside. Leave feedback let me know your thoughts on the analysis and if I missed anything or done anything wrong.
Short
by Explicit_Fx
3
Commercials - Guys who KNOW! EDU VIDEO HOW TO USE IT $$$Hi traders, I have decided to record the educational video about commercials because I have received very good questions that are worth answering. Thanks Michal! Commercials provide information about WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN . Price Action is used for timing. That´s the biggest difference between those two worlds. I also describe how to set the COT Index and how to use it if you are a BEGINNER. You have to understand that connecting PA and Commercials rapidly increases the WIN ratio. Commercials are used for creating the watchlist for the upcoming week. Price Action finds the best entry point. I hope you will like the video. Thank you for your time. Good trading, Jakub FINEIGHT
ICEUS:SB1!
by Fineight
4
Will UJ breakout?Why I assume it won't breakout for a while, atleast for not this week 1. H1 charts shows that the downtrend is over extended, it has moved 4 waves to the downside. 2. H4 divergence on the stochastic. I assume the market will consolidate for a while However the CoT report from CFTC released last week shows the Non- Commercial(Hedge Funds) are LONG on Yen and are closing their SHORTS. Therefore I assume that the market will continue to the downside, may be next week. But still I am waiting for CoT report which is going to come this week for added confirmation. (Note: The report on the chart is from Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Please let me know what you guys think. Thanks for reading this. Happy Trading
by AtitPatel