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COT

SP500 - the best time to LONGIn this analysis, I used several leading indicators - commitment of traders index (CFTS), insiders (Form 4 SEC ) and the greed and fear index (CNN Business). In commitment of traders index I period 19 - it's a middle of 13 (quarter) and 26 (half year). In practice, it is this period that provides the best results (not only on sp500, but also on other instruments). Historically, the chart shows how well this leading indicator performs. At the moment, we have not yet seen a direct signal to buy, but the fact is that we receive a signal with a slight delay (a week), and it is quite possible that we are actually already in the buy zone. And it is quite possible that we will still go to the previous volume zone (around 3600). Next indicator is Insiders data. The chart clearly shows that each increased number of insider buying (more than 150) leads to a subsequent increase of the market. Now the indicator reached 180, so we expect the sp500 index to start growing. Greed and Fear Index is one of the best leading data. And he also shows just perfect results on history! Current values from 7 to 15 are an indicator of extreme fear, and values below 10 start all the longest trends. I do not set the levels where the sp500 index will reach, as they will be dictated by the market, and leading indicators will show a reversal. And only there I will close long positions in order to get the maximum profit from the growing trend. P.S. On the chart, for reasons unknown to me, the arrows for insiders and the fear index moved a little - I hope this will not interfere with understanding the idea.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by CapitalizatorUA
7
XAUUSD 19th APRIL 2022The price of Gold was supported by investors against Russia and Ukraine as well as the outlook for China's economic growth given. Based on the COT report that was last released, it showed that large institutions tended to hold contracts for long positions totaling 165,244 more than short 48,219, and they continued to add to their total 16,924 more long positions than short 1,526. We can see the price forming a bullish channel, we can take this opportunity to buy near the support area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DNP-FX
4
$MTS - To Fill 4 Hr Fair Value Gap on Order Block For Up Bounce*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. It's slowly working it's way down into the smart money "Buy Zone" or discounted area. With Kucoins 60% staking of the coin, I'm surprised it's going this low. But I have three short targets along the way up.
Long
by BodiesXWix
Short Idea for GBPUSDThe US dollar fluctuated between 95.6 and 96.6 last month. Traders' confusion over interest rate hikes, as well as duplicity in talks with the Federal Reserve, have kept the dollar afloat. But given the job data, the CPI data, which shows inflation well, has kept traders believing that the US Federal Reserve will soon plan to raise interest rates. Therefore, according to the picture above, we predict the upward movement of the dollar index. With this rise and strengthening of the dollar as soon as possible, we can see better GBPUSD currency pairs. As we can see, this currency pair is located in a descending channel and now the roof of this channel is at the LH point. Also, by examining the COT data, the net positions of the British pound are still 50,719 selling positions, which will continue the decline of this currency. Also, compared to last week, the 6967 trading position is closed and makes this currency pair have a short rise. GBPUSD COT data
Short
by Alisabbaghi
1
Currency, cycles and money flowCurrency, cycles and money flow Currency is a system for flowing of money – According to the Oxford English dictionary, it is paper and coins in circulation and whilst all currency is money not all money is currency. Actually, derived from the old French language “Corant” meaning running, eager, swift, lively. And this is from the Latin “currere” to run or move quickly. So, by sheer definition Bitcoin and Crypto is exactly that. However, as majority of the HODLer mentality in the market – the desire and the WANT is not enough for the price to attack 100k, 200k or a million a bitcoin without understanding the economics even in its simple form. Money circulation is what makes the world go around – an economy can only flourish if the money flow is constant. This is also true for the crypto market. And this is where the cycles come into the formula. You see, money is different than gold which is different to majority of other commodities. Going back hundreds of years we had barter systems where items where simply swapped for other items. But as civilisations seemingly advanced, we needed a store of value that would not rot, whither or die and this is why Gold was “a safe” value in exchange for items people would barter for. Skip forward a few hundred years -- we have seen corruption and greed de-value gold, not in its physical form but in its inherent principles. You only need to rummage through Pandora papers or the Panama to get a feeling of money flow. The issue here is whilst majority of us here with access to the internet and a roof over your head would be regarded as first world poor. The majority of the less fortunate would fall into the category of third world poor. (in comparison to the levels of wealth, leaked in the papers above). The influential and ultra-high net worth’s can sit out a recession and buy the dip. But for the first world poor they are often the guys selling at the discount and often buying at a premium. It is all a flow of money, and this creates the money flow cycle. Such cycles have been dissected by the likes of Elliott, who introduced the Elliott wave theory. See the link for info on this topic. So why does this matter? Why will this be no different – although majority of the linear thinking believe in their heart of hearts that “it’s different this time” The reason – is that linear thinkers want the buy and hold strategy to turn a small amount of capital into millions or billions. The idea is no different than placing gold coins and piles of cash under your bed. Without money flowing in and out of the system – there needs to be a constant flow of new buyers and someone willing to sell to these buyers. Velocity of money is key! For this we need industry adoption, and the best way to drive that is to reduce fees and make the technologies more available. So whilst ‘Diamond hand’ mentality seems logical, it’s also a speed bump in the way to true trajectory in the under pinning value. In the recent rally we saw very little volume come into the move up, the price was above 50k before seeing any kind of regular volume (not high volume). We broke to a new ATH and yet failed to stay there for more than a day. This is still concerning for the larger picture – when highs are broken, you should expect momentum and a follow through. The more under the mattress – the more the velocity we achieve. Now here’s where it still feels a little premature to celebrate moon calls to a $1m a coin level. Take a look at the COT leveraged funds information; These guys are not getting REKT – these guys are selling low volume to the retail crowd. I said about the cycles; I have covered this in several posts – here again is the roadmap I painted in March this year. And so far, we have not really deviated from the trajectory. Here is the post And here’s the current situation; Similarly, for the “they blew up the rocket call” So, I cannot ignore the cycles, the lack of velocity and of course the money flow itself. Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes popularised the shift of paradox – which stated individuals tried to save more during a recession which leads to a fall in aggregate demand, in turn effecting the economic growth. For an economy to grow it needs to flow. This flow is what cause the cycles. I recently read the book “the chimp paradox” how it simplified human logic into 3 categories – we are chimps, human or a computer. When fear and greed take over, we often use our chimp brain to assess the situation and all rational goes out the window. We only agree with our own beliefs and dismiss all other points of view, regardless of the logic and empathy behind it. When money stands still, it is no longer money. This is why saving, storing hoarding will never make the economy wealthy. The services and goods purchased will still need to be purchased and new users to the system need to first adopt the system – these becoming the new bag holders for the generation before them. Which takes me onto the next point; a new flow of money. With a new flow of money “where is this generated”? You take the new ETF for example, this allows pension funds to invest into crypto (this is where most linear thinkers, believe it’s all rosy) they will use their chimp brain logic to only see the positive. However, as a fund manager myself I am happy to take 2% fees for the money I manage and then add a success fee on top of that usually around 15-22% The truth is when fund managers get enough money under management – the 2% fee keeps them in luxury yachts and private jet charters. The investors can make a small – usually a few points above base and the fund managers move onto the next new shinny thing for more management fees. Moral of the story – fund managers get rich first and clients are often secondary. If no service or value can be given, money stands still. It is here we move into the arguments for Socialism, capitalism and Communism. Where do you think the governments will take crypto? Do you think there is not much that governments can do? What’s your opinion on regulation? How does crypto get to $1m a coin, I mean what’s the supporting logic for such a move. Who are the new bag holders? All comments welcome. Be interesting to see what people think of the flow to hodl thinking. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
What we have see on USDJPY, It will be fall to the 112 areaHey friends, and trader We forecast downside movement for the USDJPY for several reasons 1. USD is overbought and over-priced in 2 months ago 2. JPY is oversold and this is a good and cheap price for this safe-haven currency 3. Smart buyers are buying in these prrices. 4. As you see in the picture, The non-commercial traders usually are buyers in these prices cause the JPY is being valuable in these prices. 5. Buy trend line is broken in the H4 time frame so if you are a swing trader or long-term trader it's a good opportunity for you. Good Lock, Wish you money With respect Ali Sabbaghi ziwox.com
Short
by Alisabbaghi
Gold COT - Growing signs of bullishnessCommitment of Traders (COT) shows growing signs of commercial being less short than the last 3 months which marks a possible bullish sentiment potentially coming into this market. Discussion There are three core issues when looking at gold, in my opinion: 1) Basel III, has implications for trading paper gold - the majority of traded gold to date and its effects are not well understood; 2) Mark-to-market of commodities against the US dollar including gold; 3) Input costs of mining new gold (Oil) noting that a majority of the gold traded is simply 'paper' gold or derivatives - even by gold miners themselves. Notice that I have not made any commentary on inflation or deflation. There is no evidence from the perspective of the US market that either will be significant in the near to medium term, irrespective what the media and others promote. Suggestion Keep an eye of this, along with gold miners and ETFs.
COMEX:GC1!
by Adam-Cox
2
BTC COT - Still shows signs of negativity>BTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report stills shows signs of dealer negativity and declining retail sentiment. Obviously, this can all change on a dime. I don't plan trades on COT alone. However, what COT is good for is understand where market participants stand and what 'knock-on' effects may eventuate when market's reverse or when trend continuation occurs. Specifically, - if the market is caught net short, any impulse to rally the market (BTC in this case), can squeeze higher before continuing, - if the market is net short and biased in that way, Calls may be cheap relative to puts (so there may be an opportunity here to buy time usefully), - Understand the 'mind of the market' which is often wrong and miss-timed - so may be a useful contrary indicator. Recommendation - check out Cost Basis and Realised PnL to understand whether new money is flowing into the market (at lower prices) - keep an eye on any sudden changes of COT, particularly to the opposite direction, particularly where a market stalls and finds support (a good buy!) - news and 'tweet' effects including ' potential squeeze risk! Good Trading :)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Adam-Cox
COT SHOWS DEALER NEGATIVITY - THE MUSIC IS ABOUT TO END!SP500 COT analysis illustrates the current negativity towards the current SP500 level. Understanding the indicator The Histogram illustrates the Net Dealer Position. Dealers have inventory replenishment requirements. If other market makers are sellers - they are buyers and visa versa. The Line shows small speculators. Their goal is 'time' the market to make capital gains with no requirement to manage inventory. Discussion Dealers went net Long to anticipate a market fall as the Covid-19 crash materialized. They had average timing capability and remained anticipating further falls as fiscal support and market intervention drove a recovery based bull run. In the last couple of months we have seen Dealers once again looking to build inventory with the obvious view that the market is/will be going into declines. But are they right? The inflation inspired crash didn't occur and where is inflation? Conclusion The core issue from a trading perspective is to differentiate the difference between 'noise' and 'signal' - On the negative side we have: fiscal support waning, and the debt ceiling fiasco. Growing geo-political tensions should not be ignored either! - On the positive side there is the possibility of an infrastructure deal. The music seems to be coming to an end! My Trade Plan Currently, I think contrary to fiscal stimulus we are now a 'sell on rallies' market. This is an exit long tactic. Fiscal support ends along with growing bi-partisan politics - its a 'build shorts' market Fiscal support continues, a bit of a rigmarole on the debt ceiling we could buy on pull backs. VIX backwardates for whatever reason - exit longs and short Follow-up Action Keep an eye on: - COT for a broad perspective - Keep an eye Cost Basis and Realised Gains - VIX slope - Geo-political tensions - US Fiscal policy (don't get distracted with monetary policy!)
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
5