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Head N Shoulders On the DXY hey guys, With the bump today on the news officials are stepping in on the failing banks the DXY is completing the right shoulder and with the CPI data coming tomorrow and the PPI after that could be great catalyst to send it higher completing the head and shoulders pattern. Keep in mind no matter what the the data comes out the FED will only Pivot if financial conditions are in dire straits and all major market declines comes after the fed pivot not before. ie Fed pivots in 2007 crash in 2008, fed pivot jan 2000 market crash by Sep 2000.
TVC:DXYLong
by jackwheeler
Why SI Silvergate Capital Corporation Collapsed ? If you haven`t bought puts here: Then you should know that last week, Silvergate's stock plunged by up to 45% following the company's announcement that it would delay filing its annual report due to ongoing investigations by various regulatory bodies, including the U.S. Department of Justice. This led major players in the crypto industry, including Coinbase and Paxos, to sever ties with Silvergate. The second largest bank serving digital assets companies, Silvergate, announced that it would wind down its operations on March 8. Analysts attributed the decline to a loss of trust in the crypto industry following the FTX meltdown, as well as concerns raised by short sellers primarily on Twitter. Silvergate primarily serviced cryptocurrency firms, including FTX, which ultimately failed. I am still bearish on the outlook of this stock! Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SShort
by TopgOptions
1
SBNY Signature Bank next to Collapse? If you haven`t bought those 5X puts: Then you should know that Signature Bank's stock experienced its worst day on record following the collapse of SIVB Silicon Valley Bank and SI Silvergate. Due to high volatility, trading was suspended earlier in Friday's session, and the stock has continued to decline for five consecutive sessions. This downturn was triggered by the closure of Silvergate, the second major bank serving digital assets companies, as well as the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank, the 18th largest bank in the United States. It has been reported that Signature Bank had exposure to FTX. I am still bearish on the company and i believe it will reach the $34 - $63 area soon! Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SShort
by TopgOptions
Silver, You should dump your paper and buy some physicalOANDA:XAGUSD Paper trading things like silver and gold are a total joke. You who trade paper shares are trading in mostly fake, extremely diluted, worthless shares. Your paper certificate is diluted somewhere on a ratio of 900 paper shares to every actual physical once of silver. Soon enough, actual silver will decouple itself from these made up paper shares. When it decouples, physical silver will go through the roof, and the silver paper market will crash, because it will be no longer tied to silvers actual spot. It is a massive risk to be involved in paper shares of anything that is diluted so much, its insane. Hard times are very close, the crash is right around the corner. Best invest in physical, or if not, be aware of the risks that come with the paper market. Also. To those using technical analysis on Silver or Gold.. It does not work so well, especially right now, because precious metals have too much reaction to financial instability and economic crisis. I wish all a great day and to stay strong in the hard time that will come upon us all. Prayers. Strength and Unity.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by friedolays
COLLAPSEIt has been a year since I contemplate the evolution of prices, analyze patterns every day, compare indicators, technical and fundamental signals, watching speculation in full swing, levers reaching new records, states with the help of central banks flooding the market with liquidity. Some have asked for my news, here it is. In January 2018 they laughed at me when i called the explosion of the crypto bubble, now i think the US market top is near. Buying stocks now is crazy. Shorting it is always risky, but here we are. Since their creation, markets have soared and then collapsed : I don't see why this time would be any different. To discerning eyes a graph is enough I don't need to say more. Wish me good luck, I wish you too. If you want to thank me, criticize me, insult me or question me in the comments space is all up to you.
TVC:SPXShort
by KassandrA_dotcom
20
US100: A free fallHello Traders! Welcome back to another post with analyst Aadil1000x. The next few steps are not good for the buyers as there is a high probability of free fall. There is a channel that was broken hard and now there is expanding triangle. This expanding triangle will work as a strong bearish but first, there will be a bullish move to activate some orders. This fall will take it below the key zone which is at 11300 support. There is a True reversal point at 12340.1 and most probably it will work with pinpoint accuracy. Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected.
UShort
by Aadil1000x
2
CHATGPT crashes and Microsoft rejects the 200 day moving averageChatGPT went down world wide at the open of trading Monday causing MSFT to reject a retest of the 200 day moving average. This could add more structural problems in VOL since hedged equity and option flows are weakest until next week. My target is 248 today with an extension possible as low as 245. These AI fumbles are a good sign that AI is still a slave to human mistakes and errors. See how this plays out but certainly is a headwind to the bullish break higher in tech NVDA is another AI moving stock to watch if this is a rejection it may add to an acceleration to the downside. I'll likely get out of short position if ChatGPT comes back online.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by SPYvsGME
1
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
Editors' picks
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
ES Market Crash 45% IncomingI will reference the 1973 crash as proof that this is what is happening today. Similarities: 8% between the 200sma and the all time High Daily Pennant/ Triangle Formation Bear Market Rally breaking above the 200sma, formed a double top 45% crash in prices in 232 trading days 50% crash from all time highs 1973 went 3 full range expansions 2023 potentially go to 1.5 full range expansions Both years ending in 3 MACD above the zero line, bearish cross and rolled over I will ride it down to 2280 and then accumulate SPY at 230 Massive wealth will be available to those who take it Here is the chart of November 1973 and how they are IDENTICAL to today
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
3
BTC Bull Run Before 2024 Halving. BTC New Cycle Now?I'm long term bullish on crypto, and I'm happy for this new year pump. Congrats to those who placed longs at $15K, you should take some profits off the table now. Why? Because we're not out of the woods yet. If you read my previous BTC analysis, I've already mentioned that I'll consider BTC has reversed if it manages to break and close above Ichimoku Cloud at $32K, or at least above all EMAs at $28K, to hint a start of a new cycle. As much as I'd love to see $300K BTC, chances are, that ain't happening this year. Technical Analysis - Weekly Time Frame: - BTC is still below EMAs and Ichimoku Cloud - 20 and 30 EMAs are already below 200 EMA, 50 and 100 EMAs are about to cross below 200 EMA - Death Cross - Heikin Ashi has shown a reversal pattern which will be confirmed by this week's candle close - RSI was oversold in November - 2022 lowest low at $15,476, now it's been moving up sharply like January last year and is about to cross middle line upwards, hinting that there's still room for upward movement - RSI was oversold and high bearish volume on Nov 7th when BTC made a new lower low, signaling a potential bottom - All Strong Supports(Green) and Resistances(Red) are shown in the chart - A break and close above or below these key levels with high volume comparable to Nov 7th has a high chance to lead BTC to its next key levels/zones Fundamental Analysis: - FED is cooling down with interest rate hike, but a pause is not a pivot - Overall Macros are still the same, no significant change on the big picture - Most of BTC's circulating supply has not moved for almost 2 years, BTC price can easily be manipulated - Black Swan potentials: Mt.Gox BTC selling pressure, DCG/Genesis/Binance collapse, USDT/other stable coins depeg, SEC cases, new crypto regulations, geopolitics It's better to wait for some sort of confirmations every time BTC reaches a key level, to determine the direction it's going next While technical indicators are good, one bad fundamental news is all it takes to crash BTC Be Careful. Not a Financial Advice ;)
by OTWhale
2
DJI - Be Ready My FriendsHi, this is my new update for DJI. As you see in the first picture, we are exactly in the same place we should be for a big crash. It is difficult to estimate a date, but I expect we are going to see 80% downside on DJI in the near future. Right now we are on a beautiful uptrend channel pattern and it has acted as resistance level multiple times and the middle line has acted like support level multiple times. At the same time we have An RSI divergence in monthly chart and that indicates we are ready for bearish signals.
TVC:DJIShort
by GOAT1375
3
S&P 500 Are we about to drop it like it's hot?Tracking our wave count for the S&P 500 we could be about to drop hard this week, with CPI reports due out on Tuesday and the Fed due to deliver another hawkish statement on Wednesday we could be entering into the wave 3 of C which will be a very sharp move and will demolish a lot of wealth in a very short space of time. We will move away from the narrative of inflation peaking and into a new narrative of inflation not dissapating as quickly as hoped. In turn the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer than anticipated (which they have signalled in the past few meetings). This is likely to scare investors out of stocks and into cash, namely the dollar. The 'bullish' move up that topped on the 1st of December was just a counter trend rally (completing wave 2 of C) and was designed as such to convice traders/investors that the bottom is in and we are heading to new highs, drawing in the bulls only to swing rapidly to lows not seen since the covid crash. We feel a conservative target for this wave 3 of C would be circa 3200, a very nice 750 points of profit from current prices.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RAA_Trading