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2:1 RiskToReward: Gold Sell Off This trade idea is supported by multi-timeframe analysis, trend continuation and market structure. All key components of sound price action trading. Going into the trade setup, Gold is trading "flat" for the day (price is equal to the start of the day). However that doesn't tell the whole story, throughout the Asian session the market traded up and tested one of our levels highlighted from the market breakdown I posted last week (linked below). As the market ticked over into the London session, price broken below this marked red arrow line to signify both a break of support and also a break of the market structure on the small 1hr timeframe.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JoelWarby
6
Amazon, Inc. Since 2000 (22 Years - Worrisome To Say The Least)I got scared when I saw this chart... Maybe that is why Jeff Bezos is planning on laying off a lot of people... Let me show you. AMZN right now is trading right at strong/long-term support. This critical support is the consolidation box/range from June 2018 through March 2020. This is marked light blue on the chart. Now, we have strong bearish signals developing and as you can see when you move your eyes to the left... We have 22 years to correct. Ok, let's start with the signals: - We have a bearish cross between EMA10 and EMA50. - Qstick and RSI strongly bearish. - 4 Months closing red spells doom. - The other stocks aren't looking good. The 0.5 Fib. retracement level for the 20+ year bullish wave has been lost as support. That is $94.47. This is a once in a lifetime event. The next Fib. support level is the golden ratio at $72.24... That's the main target on the monthly timeframe. If this level breaks, 0.618 Fib., $40 enters the game. CHANGE Amazon (AMZN) needs to break and close above $116 monthly for some bullish air to enter the chart. Any trading below this level and this chart analysis remains valid. Thank you for reading. Remember to always plan ahead; long-term. Namaste.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by AlanSantana
2
Trade Idea - Gold Bearish Re-EntryFor context watch the Related Idea video linked below. This would be my idea for an agggresive re-entry into the trade for anyone that missed the first entry. Price has now rejected the Quarterly level (Red line) and also broken below the purple support zone highlighted on the chart... as price retests this level as resistance now, we can expect that the bearish momentum should continue. For this re-entry we have adjusted the stop loss to reflect the new Risk to Reward on offer.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JoelWarby
POLYCAB!! MAJOR TRENDS!Polycab is a great stock with a good fundamentals. i have drawn the major trends supporting from its IPO time and from corona's crash. from past 14-15 months the stock is following the same channel, and has given about no returns. since it has a good fundamentals and the sales are growing nicely, i see a good upside movement. but on the flip side, this channel is acting like a consolidation part after the movement given after 2020 crash. this also says the strength of the stock, which is preventing the stock to fall. after 20th June, it has kept on rising, and recently it gave a pullback. but its a good stock to now buy, since it is landed on a good trend line, and will now rise further on. in the couple of months, i see a good upside movement on this stock. the large blue line which i have drawn is just a speculating line, if possibly the stock gets a good movement, it could go on further rising to that line.
NSE:POLYCABLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
BTCUSD will go lower than you thoughtthe owner of FTX filed a bankruptcy and his other companies then began to collapse. Other crypto investors experts really seeing 10-12K area will be the new bottom for bitcoin.. even lower is possible but we will see if any bad news are near but there will be. Also the US economy will collapse soon while the whole US states are seeing the inflation will go even higher than before. As anyone said bitcoin bottomed we aren’t bottomed yet, the bear market isn’t over. We will see more collapse and another crash… while bitcoin Amid FTX fiasco. 10-12K ground floor bottom for bitcoin.. how far y’all see? Let me know in a comments and your charts how low will it go.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
Euro Crash. ( Updated ) O.o We update the analysis of the Euro that we have already done on other occasions. I think it's very easy to see what happens here. - Bearish Channel, bouncing off institutional support or resistance zones, but with a dark future. Where the highest probability will be to see the Euro again at $0.85 very soon in 2023 (as we discussed in previous analyses) but also after a break of perhaps 1 and a half years of setback and relief. We will be able to live a new strong Fall until the year 2026 where we could see a Euro in values ​​of $0.75 and finally for the year 2030 a fall of up to $0.64 to $0.56. As we can see, it is NOT safe to maintain any currency other than the USD, since this is the dominant one, but the dollar does not protect us. The dollar is very damaged with a loss of more than 98% of the purchasing power of citizens over the years, but within all currencies it is the STRONGEST. - On the other hand we will be able to see that the projections for the rest of the currencies are also horrendous, with which it will not be an isolated case only for the euro. We may see a Pound (GBP) at $0.85 by 2026 and up to $0.50 by 2030 if the trend DOES NOT CHANGE. And if he hasn't done it in all these years... why should he now? - At the same time we can observe the currency of Japan (Japanese Yen) This currency seemed to be quite respected against the dollar, but that is over. We are facing a macro figure of change in trend. (A pattern known as the Inverted Headshoulder, + Bottom Round + Past Trend Break + Trend Reversal Confirmation by Breaking Previous Relative Highs) It is time to worry and go. We are about to witness a loss of Value with respect to the dollar of at least 50%, 60%, 70% and the Japanese Yen up to values ​​of 150% (in case of breaking the levels of 160) from June of the year 2021 until the year 2030
Short
by javieralcazarono
Catalysts for The Global Financial Crisis 2.0The current level of euphoria and speculation on Wall Street is likely to go down in history in the same way that the misplaced optimism of speculators in 1929 was immortalized by the tremendous crash and ensuing depression. The current dynamics at play are more similar to that period than most realize. Many potential catalysts for the Global Financial Crisis 2.0 are beginning to rear their heads, including things such as: -The auto loan bubble -The residential & commercial real estate bubble -The private equity and venture capital bubble -The largest losses in the total bond market in generations -Highest level of Federal Debt to GDP in US history and extremely high level of consumer & corporate debt in US history -The most overvalued market based on forward earnings in history (Based on my expectations of S&P 2023 earnings will fall below 140). Peak margins above -13% coming back under 10% will also help to drive this. -The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since Paul Volcker and $90 billion of quantitative tightening per month. -The crypto bubble implosion where many exchanges are likely to fail due to their ponzi-like staking dynamics and unprofitable nature of exchanges like Coinbase. We are starting to see the beginnings of the financial contagion from FTX into other exchanges and coins. This is happening in an industry valued at over $3 trillion at its peak. -The Chinese real estate crisis and recession -The energy crisis which has curtailed over 20% of EU industrial capacity and is sending Europe into a recession. This is leading to increased energy costs around the world. -Looming sovereign debt crises & currency crises for many emerging and certain developed economies. The $1.6 trillion auto loan bubble is reminiscent of the subprime lending bubble. There were incredibly loose lending standards in this auto loan bubble, where people that received federal stimulus checks were able to claim these as income. This entitled them to larger sized loans than they would have otherwise had access too. Many of these loans were made at over 130% loan to value ratio. These loans have been packaged up as bonds and sold off to investors hungry in search for yield in a world of artificially low interest rates, suppressed by the Fed for the better part of 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis. The amount of delinquent auto loans has continued to increase, and the looming crisis represents a huge threat to financial stability. As real wages and employment continue to fall, the amount of delinquent loans will continue to rise. Earnings for the S&P 500 in Q3 have already started to contract more than 5% year over year (excluding energy) and yet many analysts still expect some, to no growth of earnings in 2023. Earnings are likely to collapse over 40% in 2023, pressured by falling consumer demand and falling operating margins. Consumer sentiment registered the worst sentiment among US consumers since the great depression. All of the Fed manufacturing and service data components show comparable data now to data being released in mid 2008 to the spring of 2009, all with continuously negative trends. Capital expenditures have begun decreasing and mass layoffs are just beginning. 37% of US small businesses could not pay their rent in full in October. Many companies will be forced to close their doors permanently and layoff their entire staff. Consumption began to fall rapidly after the Fed began quantitative tightening and ended quantitative easing. The effects finally began hitting company earnings largely in Q3, with much more pain to follow. Meanwhile, many companies continued to hire large amounts of people unaware that consumption would continue to collapse. As asset prices fall further and inflation stays elevated, real wages will continue falling. Student loan payments begin again at the start of 2023, further harming consumer sentiment. Money supply growth began stagnating early in the year in 1929 and the federal government began to tighten spending with the New Deal programs in 1936 before the crash happened in 1937. Bank balance sheets have been flat for 2022 while the central bank balance sheet has been contracting leading to a slight contraction in the money supply. The contracting growth of monetary supply and fast paced increases in interest rates will lead to a large-scale downturn in GDP. On a technical basis, the current market setup looks very similar to 1929, 1937, 1973-1974, 1987, and 2008. All of which had major rallies that topped in late summer / fall before crashing over 30%. All of these crashes took place over the span of less than 3 months, with the majority of the percentage decline occurring over a period of 2-3 weeks. There are dozens of companies that are virtually guaranteed to go bust in this downturn based on an overview of their financials. There have never been so many listed companies that reached valuations in the billions at their peak with no earnings. Many companies at the time of this writing still have valuations of over 6 times sales and many companies such as Coinbase, Uber, and Rivian are still valued at over $10 billion market caps whilst losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter. The dozens of zombie companies in the S&P 500 are being forced into rolling their debts at higher interest rates while their earnings fall. This will be the largest debt deleveraging cycle in the US economy since the great depression, because this is the largest accumulation of bad debts since the roaring twenties. It is not long until the credit risk is truly realized by market participants, and interest rates spike throughout the economy. This would include the inter-bank lending rate and junk rated bonds which would lead to a financial crisis. The longer the Fed’s quantitative tightening runs, the more inevitable the financial crisis becomes. The Fed ran the balance sheet down around $600 billion over the course of 2018 into late summer of 2019 before inter-bank lending rates started to spike. This time, the Fed has run the balance sheet down close to $300 billion so far with a plan of reaching over a $600 billion runoff in Q1 of 2023. The hopes for a Fed pivot are misplaced. A Fed pivot on interest rate hikes and even a reversal of the rate hikes cannot re-incentivize people to borrow. When you’re in a contracting credit cycle and business cycle downturn, debt begins to be paid off and defaulted on rather than excessively accumulated. The demand to borrow collapses even if interest rates were lowered by the Fed. Therefore, bear markets and recessions usually don’t end until many months after the Fed has already begun cutting interest rates. This was seen in the Great Recession and the dot com bubble of 2000; where the market didn’t bottom until over 18 months after the Fed began cutting rates.
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
2
DefiLlama: Total Value Locked by Protocols"Exchange is not your wallet". "Not your keys, not your coins" Despite the strong turmoil due to the FTX crash, DeFi dApps (Decentralized Finance applications that run on blockchains) remain intact, at least for the most part. And given this bad context of the crypto market, it is worth noting that Dexes (decentralized exchanges) and Landing Protocols have proven to be much more resilient and secure than centralized exchanges, since the former have a more open administration and a source code that can be accessed and audited. On the other hand, centralized exchanges are a black box, and at this delicate moment, there are doubts if they really have enough balance to honor all withdrawals. DefiLlama TVL (Total Value Locked) The graph presented here shows the monetary values ​​locked in the main dApps, also called protocols. What the graph indicates is that the DeFi ecosystem remains intact, and so far the application that has suffered the most withdrawals and losses has been Mango Markets, which runs on the Solana blockchain. Due to the Alameda/FTX contamination, some Solana dApps may suffer more. The worst case scenario in case of eviction According to DefiLlama, the total amount locked in DeFi is $76.13b. Doing a very quick baker's account with approximate values: + Total TVL: $76,000,000,000.00 - FTX Leak: $10,000,000,000.00 - Investments by Alameda/FTX in Solana and some dApps: $6,031,139,675.00 ------------------------------- = $59,968,860,325,000 (-21%) So, if the market drops more, we could have a drop of another 21%, distributed among these protocols. But, again, this is just a quick calculation and could be wrong, and it is not investment advice. Final word This will be a time of consolidation, in which ecosystems with solid governance will prove their worth and emerge from this crisis even stronger.
A
by andre_007
DXY setting up for huge bounce to coincide with crypto crash pt2Interesting chart here on the DXY daily we can see the sharp pull back to strong support line so that’s one more clue that things are about to get uglier in the crypto space. This past week‘s events have cast the block shadow on the entire industry and likely will put increased pressure on institutions and big investors to further limit exposure. In the life cycle of investor emotions, were seeing capitulation but I haven’t quite seen the final stage of despondency that ear marks the true bottom. So I think we have further to drop, likely to $14,000, or $12,500 which would be the 100 month moving average. There is also still the unfilled CME gap between 9750 and 9780 so a $10,000 bitcoin could still be in the cards for this is all over.
TVC:DXYShort
by BrettFogle
3
FTX and the end of an eraThe fall of FTX will go down in history as something similar to the crash of 2008. On Friday, 11/11/2022, a court-supervised reorganization was requested, the first step towards filing for bankruptcy. In this chart, we can see the balance of assets belonging to the hodlers of the FTT token, used on the FTX exchange. Surreptitiously, on September 26, someone with inside information already knew the boat was going to sink. And these managed to get a lifeboat before everyone else... This can be proven by comparing the same type of chart in other cryptocurrencies, where nothing absurdly out of the ordinary is noticed: BTC ETH AAVE ADA BUSD (Binance) COINEX Curve dYDX GUSD (Gemini) HT (Huobi) HUSD (Huobi) KCS (Kucooin) CRO Polygon Magic Internet Money OKB (OKX) QuickSwap (Polygon) USDC USDT ------------------------- Another indicator that demonstrates the problem to come is the Volume of transactions with a value of $100,000 or greater in USD . On FTX’s FTT token, there was a strangely unusual volume, ahead of other cryptocurrencies: FTT BTC ETH USDC (note that high volume happened just days later, in the desperation of multiple withdrawals and moves) ------------------------- The Amount of asset held by Whales is another indicator that I bring here to compare some exchanges, but not all of them are available. FTT (FTX) BUSD (Binance) (this information does not exist for BNB) Coinex CRO dYDX GUSD (Gemini) HT (Huobi) (⁉️) HUSD (Huobi) KCS (Kucoin) OKB (OKX) USDK (OKX) Uniswap Better times will come.
F
by andre_007
Pre-Pandemic Level Untapped!!All markets are targeting the levels they were trading at right before the PANDEMIC CRASH! Keep in mind these were the natural levels that were unaffected by the massive supply of funds that were injected into the economy. It only makes sense that we reach those levels again for an official reset. BLUE LINE! Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
SP:SPXShort
by rnaofs
1