SPX - Blow off top into a paradigm shift!A simple chart, showing SPX coming to the end of a multi-decade parabola. Looks like anything close to 6000 is in play in this final phase....
What comes next isn't a recession, but a new reality...
Crash
Biggest bull trap in history I figured this was going to happen as you know that I said I told you so;
This crash won’t stop until it hits 10K
The ETF AftermathIt has been 1 year almost to the day since my last publication and what a 12 months it has been. I previously laid out the case for a pending future recession but not before we saw massive regular bullish divergence play out on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin.
Since then we've seen a 187% move in BTC, a 25% move in the S&P 500 and every commentator, pundit and analyst confident that a recession has been avoided and a soft landing inevitable.
I'm here now telling you that I believe it to be no coincidence that the previous fundamental legacy events of which bitcoin has experienced in its past, once in Dec 2017 and the other in April 2021 has resulted in massive price corrections of 83 and 53% respectively within days of the CME and IPO announcements. Albeit the likelihood of such massive corrections are lesser given where we are in the macro cycle I do believe a sizable correction will occur days following this announcement.
What is of significant interest on the chart is the previous macro fibonacci extensions of the precious 2 cycles. That being a confluent correction at the 0.5 fib level and seeing a 40% and 72% correction there after. A 0.5 extension in this current cycle would suggest a monthly wick above $48500 followed by again a sizable correction.
To pontificate as to the extent of this correction I pose the following possibilities.
-A 30% drawdown to the 200 SMA, a support level which has served Bitcoin well historically
-A 40% drawdown to the 6 and a half year support line of macro lows.
-Or an unthinkable 70% correction somewhere around the previous bear market low, 2017 bull market high and the resistance held in July 2019 and Aug 2020.
For this to take place we need to consider some very worst case scenarios and evaluate the current macro/geopolitical landscape.
-Escalation of war in Russian Ukraine.
-Escalation of war in Israel Palestine.
-Military development of China's desire to remove Taiwan's international independence.
-The largest inversion of the 10 year 2 year yield curve in 40 years.
-The largest contraction of US M2 money supply since the great depression.
-A continuation of what is already a 50% crash in China's real estate market.
-A UK real estate crisis once affordability ceases as mortgages need rolling over after a 10,000% increase in interest rates.
-A US real estate crisis as 11 monthly falsified unemployment data is realised
-The energy and manufacturing crisis in europe compounded by the highest debt to GDP ratio in its history
-A Hollywood presidential election between a criminal and a dementia patient.
My point is the macro landscape is looking unpredictable and the TA has much confluence.
This feels very much like it did in the beginning of 2020 just before the un-inversion of the yield curve and the then pending recession. It's almost like something globally needs to be orchestrated in order to create an excuse to lower rates and roll the debt over for another 4 years!!
Who knows it might even be a cyber attack and CBDC implementation ;-)
Either way Bitcoin will still be doing its thing.
Keep yourself and those satoshi's safe.
4 Reasons for the Bitcoin Pullback ...And What's Next?Traders,
There are essentially four big reasons explaining this bitcoin pullback. Let's take a look at what caused this pullback and talk about where we go from here.
I LATE PUBLISHED THIS, BTC wyckoff schematic #1:Brace yourselves! The chart is a crystal clear warning siren for an impending crash in the Bitcoin market. What we're seeing here is the textbook setup of a Wyckoff distribution phase, a manipulative masterpiece played out by the smart money to trap unsuspecting retail investors before the rug is pulled.
Phase A was just the smart money dipping their toes, testing the waters for liquidity. Phase B, the buildup, was where they revved up the engines, creating a façade of a bullish frenzy, drawing in the crowd with the hype. But then, boom! Phase C hit with the Outthrust After Distribution (UTAD), the classic fake-out move. It's the smart money whispering, 'This is as high as we go, folks,' before they start offloading their bags onto the latecomers.
Now, as we edge into Phase D, the Sign of Weakness (SOW) has revealed itself. This isn't just a dip to buy; it's a cliff edge. The Last Point of Supply (LPSY) attempts are feeble, and the demand is drying up faster than a puddle in the Sahara.
And what's next? Phase E. The markdown. The avalanche. This isn't just going to be a correction; it's shaping up to be a freefall. The volume profile is whispering secrets of a sell-off that's ready to stampede. Those support lines? They'll snap like twigs under a boot. We're not just talking about testing lows; we're talking about rewriting the bottom line.
This is the moment where fortunes are lost, where the latecomers holding the line get burned. The chart is screaming caution. It's not a matter of if, but when. The crash is looming, and it's going to be cataclysmic. Don't be the one left holding the bag when the smart money has cashed out and left the building. This is your warning!
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TO BE FORMAL AND PROFESSIONAL.
Here's a breakdown of the typical phases and events in the Wyckoff Schematic #1, as they might relate to your chart:
Phase A: This phase marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Key elements include:
Preliminary Supply (PSY): Where large interests begin selling the coin and volume increases.
Buying Climax (BC): Where demand is fully satiated, and there is heavy buying from the public, leading to a sharp rally and subsequent sell-off.
Automatic Reaction (AR): The immediate sell-off after the buying climax, setting a range for the trading range (TR).
Phase B: This phase is characterized by building a cause for the new downtrend.
Secondary Test (ST): Where the market tests the supply and demand balance at the upper and lower bounds of the TR established in Phase A.
Upthrust (UT): A test above the TR that fails and falls back into the range, showing that demand is not strong enough to break through the supply.
Phase C: This phase indicates the readiness to leave the TR and begin a new downtrend.
Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD): A sign of weakness, where price goes above the TR again but attracts heavy selling from the smart money, confirming they are distributing their holdings.
Phase D: The price begins to move downward as the distribution phase is ending.
Sign of Weakness (SOW): Price action that moves below the support level of the trading range, suggesting that supply is overwhelming demand.
Last Point of Supply (LPSY): The final attempt to move up into the TR, which fails due to lack of demand.
Phase E: This is the markdown phase where the price declines.
The chart depicts a series of lower highs and lower lows, consistent with a bearish trend.
The annotations on your chart suggest that the analyst is anticipating a bearish market based on the Wyckoff distribution phases. They have marked out specific events and are forecasting a continued downtrend into the future phases (D and E). It's important to note that while Wyckoff's methodology is respected among some traders, it's not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and risk management techniques.
The chart also includes some narrative annotations about market events, like SEC announcements, which the analyst is using to support their interpretation of the price action within the framework of the Wyckoff Method. These external factors are used to give context to the price movements and potentially indicate the actions of institutional investors.
I hope I was early to warn everyone but I did, just forgot to do it here in TradingView.
This Simple Chart Tells Us All We Need to Know About Altcoins RNTraders,
Don't really have to say much more here. This is the altcoin total market cap excluding BTC and ETH. Alts continue to face trouble and it looks like more selling will ensue. Stay out of leverage and trade carefully. Ensure those stops!
REST IN PIECES, FILECOIN! Shorting 7x here, expecting $0.10!REST IN PIECES, FILECOIN! Shorting 7x here, expecting $0.10!
AWFUL CHART, WORST CHART IN CRYPTO RIGHT NOW!
Mega shitcoin of epic proportions. Hope you listened to me and shorted with me!
Scenario: Market Crash Coincides with 2024 Presidential ElectionJust for fun:
Here's a scenario where a 2024 market crash could coincide directly with the upcoming presidential election.
The crash would be self-evident right around the time of the two party conventions and the first presidential debates (if those actually occur).
The crash just starting This is a huge bull trap in history as I was wrong about the push up but expecting for it to happen but overall the bears win this one.
$95 is the neckline if that breaks then the bears will fully dominate the market so if the buyers pullback inside the 45$ zone if fails then we will drop all the way down to $20 and it’s possible to go a lot lower than that.
This is a huge concerning for the bulls and there’s no way we will see a bulls coming back soon since now bears are dominating for now.
To me right now is the crash is barely about to start.
Bears target : 45$
Bears target 2: 20$
If bears aren’t satisfied enough then we will break lower than $20
Is Filecoin Going to $0.10 (10 cents)? 99% Crash Coming?Is Filecoin Going to $0.10 (10 cents)? 99% Crash Coming?
Filecoin had a BIG TIME rejection. I have warned people! But they alufed at me.
I think filecoin can go to $0.
If you have bought filecoin above $10, chances are 99.4% you will never even break-even, which is shocking considering some people have bought this at $230!
The fact that this coin was $230 and today can't even be $10 after massive bull run, speaks volumes! $0.10 is realistic!
BCH update [ MAJOR LIQUIDATION]At the moment, price is still retesting the current midvwap, but as soon as price break below 215$, sells towards 150$ come in play. On the other hand, price can still retest the current high at around 260$, but only if price manages to break above 290$ we shall start looking for buys continuation. Until then sells are more valid than buys, simply because liquidity has to be mitigated first.
BTC update [MAJOR MOVE INCOMING]Once price respects the current high that has been formed at around 46k, once price breaks below last mitigation of this current demand, we can definitely look for sells towards 40k, 35k and even 30k, depending on future data. On the other hand, a break above this current high is still posiible, but only a strong breakout above 48k will confirm buys continuation. Until then sells are more probable.
DJI Dow Jones Fell 8.60% After the Last U.S. Credit DowngradeOn Tuesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing concerns over "a steady deterioration in standards of governance."
This downgrade occurred in the wake of last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to secure a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, which posed a risk of the nation's first default.
Following a similar credit downgrade in the past, the DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced an 8.60% decline over a period of 3 months. The downgrade by S&P, one of the three major credit rating firms, took place on Aug. 5, 2011, after another significant debt ceiling battle.
As of today, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
If we are to fell -8.60%, the Price Target for DJI is $32500.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
XRP - THE ROAD TO 1.20-1.30$ EXPLOSION FOLLOWED BY CORRECTIONXRP is holding 0.55$ Support area after the recent liquidation.
If it maintains at this level, we can continue with the movement and climb up towards 1$ at least.
The conservative de-risk play, would be around 1.07-1-13$ . While most ambicious one is around 1.20-1.30$.
This triangle is in play and we are in PHASE D. This is why is still have this impulse left towards a dollar and above.
After that, I can say we may visit again the 0.60 territory. This may sound crazy, but this is how the overall cryptomarket is looking.
We are in the Wave 3. Once this finishes, Wave 4 corrective, A,B,C comes. Therefore, we must prepare to capitalize even more.
**PREPARE NOW. GET INTO POSITIONS. HOLD AND DO NOT DOUBT**
XRP HOLDING CRITICAL SUPPORT! LAST SHAKE OUT BEFORE 1.13$After the critical liquidation that took place today, 03/01/2024, XRP is fighting to hold the 0.55$ support.
IF XRP manages to close the daily higher than the GREEN trendline, at around 0,55$, we are good for continuation and the continuation of the automatic rally.
This recent crash was to liquidate retail investors due to the recent immense increase in the Altcoin market.
Do not get distracated. DO not doubt about the current situation. They want you out for whats to come in the next 1-2 months.
XRP is set to reach at least 1.07$-1.13$ in the upcoming days, maximum reaching 1.30$ if it overextends.
This is time for accumulating more XRP. Don't lose focus!
Cheers!
BITCOIN LIQUIDATION EVENT 01/03/24 - ALTCOINS MASSIVE GAINS OP!Today we've experienced a crazy liquidation event in the Crypto Market.
Bitcoin moved from 45k until 40-41k depending on the exchange.
Altcoins lost 20-40%, but many of them already recovered half and some up to 100%.
ARB, GMX and ENS did pretty well.
Right now, as long as Bitcoin holds this ORANGE TRENDLINE that goes back untli January 2023, on a daily closure, we are fine for continuation.
Targets: 47-48K
We are close to the near of the Wave 3. Wave 4 correction is near.
Right now the best plays to buy Altcoins, since many of them still have to appreciate on value in the comming month.
Altocins to watch:
XRP
THETA
FIL
XLM
IOTA
MATIC
Bitcoin is crashing and nobody listened Bitcoin is crashing and over negative 5 percent.. this is a dominating of the bears to take over and this is the biggest bull trap in crypto history.
ETF SPOT CAN BE REJECTED !!!!
Because SEC said “ if we don’t see it within more than 2 weeks , it’s more because they need more time” and also said “This would be the rug pull of the decade."
“Everybody put in a lot of work in this, especially over the holidays. Sadistic might not even be strong enough a word for it.”
See you at 10K y’all and this news is HUGE.
Godzilla Crash For Filecoint Shitcoin Number 1Godzilla Crash For Filecoint Shitcoin Number 1
I warned you but you didn't listen.
You were smug and told me I am fool because it wnet up $1.
Now the time for reckoning has come!!
BTC will make Pain to All BullsAs it turns out, we have reached a resistance level located within a 2-layer channel structure. It probably seems only fair to inflict some pain on the bulls who took positions long before the ETF arrived.
Filecoin Crashing Hard – TOLD YOU SO!As I type this, filecoin is crashing hard and has formed a clear double top on the hourly chart.
I have been the only one warning you about thit shit show of a garbage shitcoin and now I can say: I TOLD YOU SO.
Biggest bull trap just hit.. coming big crash for bitcoin? Halving is coming but overall bitcoin can crash before the halving even during ETF event approval or during it.
Bitcoin doesn’t have much support as you see you and it is not enough; on 1Day chart it created a double top.. if bears are still in control then it’s possible can go a lot lower than 40K even 30K.
The bottom I see still is 10K area but it’s possible can go lower than that.
Bitcoin is extremely overbought..in about 2 weeks the Euphoria is going to die out.
Filecoin Rejected; Another 80% Drop Coming?Filecoin showing EXTREME WEAKNESS.
While most other DePIN projects have pumped, Filecoin has failed to do so.
It keeps rejecting around $6, which is a BAD OMEN because every other coin has had no problem breaking through resistance.
It's unlikely Filecoin will breakout because altseason is over and bitcoin is about to see a major correction.
If you bought Filecoin above $10, chances are you will never break-even, let alone make a profit (the ATH of this shitcoin was over $200!).
Maybe Filecoin will reach $10-$12 as the TOP FOR THE NEXT BULL MARKET, when Bitcoin is $200,000.
I expect another 80% dump for Filecoin!
Huge Filecoin Crash Coming: Target $1While other coins have pumped massively for the past month, filecoin keeps struggeling with a major resistance. This is extremely bad when the rest of the market is pumping and breaking resistance after resistance with extreme ease. Since the market is poised for a correction, and since filecoin is pausing at major resistance for the 4th time, the chances of an epic CRASH are incredibly high (99% likely). I expect filecoin will crash another 80% soon.
