BITCOIN The Golden 51%-49% Ratio! 600 days of Bull Market left!This is a really simple Bitcoin study on which I calculate the remaining days of the current Bull Cycle we are in based on the Top, Bottom and Halving of each Cycle. These parameters are effectively used to distinguish the Bull from the Bear Cycles. Tops are obviously where the Bull phase ends and Bear starts, while the Bottoms are where the Bear phase ends and the Bull starts.
** The 51%-49% Ratio and the important of the Halvings **
The focus of this study is the Bull Cycle. As you see on the chart there is a striking similarity on each Cycle. The phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically we can claim that the Halving seems to be the middle of each Bull Cycle.
** So where are we now? **
Based on the above ratio and with the 3rd Halving scheduled on May 12th, 2020, we can calculate that the first phase (51%) of the current Bull Cycle will last around 520 days (Bottom made on December 15th 2018). The 49% which based on the previous two cycles has been the second phase should therefore last around 505 days, placing the Top of the current Bull Cycle in early October 2021! This means that there are around 600 days of Bull Cycle left!!
Of course there are and will be several other parameters that can influence the cycle (we saw that on the April-June 2019 parabolic explosion) but this is a good (and so far very accurate) pattern that long term Bitcoin investors can follow. It certainly answers the question "is it too late to buy?" though!
Do you agree with this estimate of have another pattern in mind? Let me know in the comments section!
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
BONUS MATERIAL a shorter term perspective:
Cryptocurrencysignals
BITCOIN still has at least 500 days of Bull Cycle ahead !!!Back in February 2020 we published one of our most popular ideas, the 'Golden 51%-49% Ratio':
And in December 2022 exactly on the last Bear Cycle's bottom, we updated it issuing a mega buy signal for long-term traders and investors:
As you can see, this couldn't have been more accurate and today, as we are only 2 weeks before Bitcoin's 4th historic Halving, we are giving you an update with a few extra elements!
** Cycles and LGC **
The Bear Cycles are displayed by the red Rectangles and the Bull Cycle by the green. What's noticeable here is that BTC only recently got out of its Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC), which is unusual before a Halving event. Being that close to the range that is basically Bitcoin's historic Buy Zone, indicates its huge potential moving forward in this new Bull Cycle.
** The Golden Ratio **
However the highlight of this analysis remains the Halving's Golden Ratio, which implies that the time distance from the Bear Cycle's bottom to the Halving is almost equivalent to the distance from the Halving to the Bull Cycle's top. It has held beautifully on the 3 previous Cycles and there is no reason not to expect it to unfold this time also.
** 500 more days of Bull **
This indicates that we have at least another 500 days of Bull Cycle ahead of us and the best part is that those will be in the form of the most aggressive part of the Cycle, the Post-Halving Parabolic Rally (green Megaphone)!
But what do you think? Do you expect the 51%-49% Golden Ratio to hold again? If yes, at what price do you expect Bitcoin to peak? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Santos FC Fan Token completed a setup for upto 11% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new trade setup of Santos FC Fan Token with US Dollar pair.
Recently we caught almost 15% pump of SANTOS as below:
Now on a 4-hr time frame, SANTOS has formed a bullish Gartley move for the next price reversal.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
MPCUSDT Don't miss this Cup & Handle BUY opportunity!The MPCUSDT, Partisia Blockchain's token, has started to make a bullish reversal as it held its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support and started today its strongest 1 day rally since its first trading day.
The pattern that appears to have prevailed is a Cup & Handle (C&H), which technically leads massive bullish reversals on market bottoms. Even though 4H is a rather short-term time-frame, we can expect a similar behaviour. Our Targets remain 0.5750 and 0.6900, exactly on the Resistance 2 and 3 levels respectively. Technically it can even go as high as the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, before the next short-term pull-back.
Overall we are very bullish on MPC, a great token on a project with very promising potential. It is worth being a long-term holder as the fundamentals are one of the most solid we have seen on caps of this size.
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ETCUSD new rally starting towards $50.Ethereum Classic (ETCUSD) has started to rise again, so far being on the 2nd straight green 1D candle, without breaking the key 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been supporting since essentially the October 23 2023 break-out.
As long as this holds and ETC keeps closing the 1D candles above the 1D MA100, we expect a new cyclical rally to start within the Fibonacci Channel Up. The last one was +83.17% from its Higher Low, so a repeat would give us $49.00 by May.
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BITCOIN Will we see 60k before 100k?Yesterday we discussed from a 4H perspective (see chart below) why it would be technically possible and above all healthy for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to pull-back to the 1D MA50 and then rebound:
Today we approach this from the 1W time-frame where the results are virtually the same. As you can see, Bitcoin has pulled-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the previous Low on both previous corrections. Even the April - June and July - September double corrections last year (2023), both didn't exceed the 0.382 Fib.
With the underlying long-term pattern for BTC being a Channel Up since the November 2022 (FTX crash) bottom, such a pull-back would be a new Higher Low. As you can see every Bullish Leg to a Higher High is slightly weaker progressively. The 1st was +104.28%, the 2nd +96.69% (-8% lower), the 3rd +92.48% (-4% lower), so we may have a pattern here where every Higher High's decreasing rate is -50% lower each time. This indicates that the next Higher High may be -2% less, i.e. +90.48%.
That gives us a $110000 Higher High target but it is always safer to start taking profits (medium-term at least) around $100k. So if this model continues to repeat those systemic sequences, we are looking at the possibility of a 60-58k pull-back towards and marginally after the Halving and then new rally to $100k.
It is worth mentioning that every time such Higher Low pull-back took place within the Channel Up, the 1W MACD either made a Bearish Cross or a very tight Squeeze. We can already see the MACD reversing downwards.
So what do you think? It is more probable to see a 60k pull-back before a new rally to 100k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Liquity (LQTY) completed a setup for upto 27% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new trade setup of Liquity (LQTY) with US Dollar pair.
Recently we caught almost 13% pump of LQTY as below:
Now on a 4-hr time frame, LQTY has formed a bullish Butterfly move for the next price reversal move.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
Maverick Protocol (MAV) completed a setup for upto 26% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new trade setup of Maverick Protocol (MAV) with US Dollar pair.
Recently we caught almost 27% pump of MAV as below:
Now on a 4-hr time frame, MAV has formed a bullish BAT move for the next price reversal move.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
ALTS are ready to explode after this Golden Cross! DON'T MISS ITThe Crypto Total Market Cap excluding BTC (TOTAL2), which is essentially the altcoin market, just completed a Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame. That is the first such formation since September 14 2020.
As you can see, that was during the middle of the previous Bull Cycle, around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and past the Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle). The 1W Golden Cross essentially signaled the start of the Parabolic Rally (green Rectangle) 3-4 weeks later, which is the most aggressive part of the Cycle and what is otherwise known as 'Alt Season', the time when alt coins see extraordinary growth.
The similarities between the two Cycles so far are striking. The Accumulation Phase was very long and took place on 1W RSI Higher Lows, a Bullish Divergence that paved the way to the Cycle's Rally. Note that this is only the 2nd 1W Golden Cross of the market, a feat that traders and investors should not miss and take advantage of. As long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supports, the market will continue to be on the Bull Cycle and enjoy its biggest gains.
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BITCOIN a 1D MA50 test is quite likely before 100k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke and closed below its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 2 months (since February 05). Last time such a pull-back off a Higher High took place was on January 12 (orange circle), which confirmed the extension of a short-term correction that found support on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and rebounded.
That was a -21.41% decline from the top. On today's sequence a -21.41% repeat would again make contact (or come very close) with the 1D MA50. That could coincide with the Halving event, two weeks from now and would make for a very healthy correction. In our opinion that is the most optimal and low risk level to add more buys for the long-term 100k Target.
But what do you think? Will BTC correct to the 1D MA50 or a rebound from the current levels is more probable? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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NEAR Buy Alert!! 50% - 100% GAIN!! (easy to understandNEAR Protocol is like a special computer system that helps people create and use decentralized apps (dApps) without some of the usual problems that come with blockchain technology.
Here's how it works:
1. Staying Secure with PoS : Instead of using lots of energy like traditional blockchains, NEAR uses a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) system to keep everything safe. This means people who own NEAR tokens help make sure transactions are legitimate and secure by staking their tokens.
2. Getting Faster with Sharding : NEAR breaks down its work into smaller parts called shards. This helps speed up transactions because different parts of the network can work on different tasks at the same time.
3. Quick Confirmations with Doomslug : NEAR has a cool system called Doomslug that quickly finalizes transactions. This means you don't have to wait long to make sure your transaction went through.
4. Talking to Other Blockchains with Rainbow Bridge : NEAR can talk to other blockchains thanks to Rainbow Bridge. It's like a bridge between NEAR and other networks, making it easy to share information and assets.
5. Growing Big with Aurora : Aurora helps NEAR handle lots of users and transactions without slowing down. It's like adding extra power to make sure everything runs smoothly as more people use NEAR.
6. Balancing Speed, Safety, and Decentralization : NEAR makes sure its network is fast, secure, and decentralized all at once. This is important because usually, you have to sacrifice one of these things to improve the others, but NEAR finds a way to balance them all.
7. Easy-to-Remember Account Names and Safety Features : NEAR makes it easy for people to use by giving accounts names that are easy to remember. Plus, it has extra safety features like multiple access keys to keep your stuff secure.
8. Using Smart Contracts and Gas : NEAR supports smart contracts, which are like self-executing contracts that automatically do what they're programmed to do. When you do things on NEAR, like sending tokens or running smart contracts, you pay a small fee called gas. This helps keep the network running smoothly.
9. Paras: A Cool Example : Paras is a digital card marketplace built on NEAR. It lets artists and collectors buy, sell, and verify digital collectible cards easily and securely. It's just one example of what you can do with NEAR.
Here are the recent events they are doing:
NEAR Protocol is rolling out a groundbreaking feature that makes it easier for users to interact with multiple blockchains using a single account. This feature, called Chain Signatures, lets users sign transactions on one blockchain using their NEAR account from another blockchain.
What's unique about Chain Signatures is that it's powered by a decentralized multi-party computation (MPC) network and secured by NEAR's validators. This means users can seamlessly access and interact with various blockchains, including Ethereum, Cosmos, Dogecoin, Bitcoin, and XRP Ledger, with plans for support for additional chains like Solana and Polkadot in the works.
One key aspect of Chain Signatures is its "Multichain Gas Relayer" feature, which removes the need for users to have the native gas token of another blockchain for transactions. Instead, users can use NEAR tokens to cover gas fees across any supported chain, making transactions more convenient and cost-effective.
This development opens up new possibilities for decentralized finance (DeFi) on non-smart contract chains like Bitcoin. Developers can now easily create DeFi products that utilize assets from different blockchains without the need for complex bridging mechanisms.
Currently operational on NEAR's testnet, Chain Signatures is expected to roll out on the mainnet by early May, offering users a seamless and efficient way to navigate the multi-chain ecosystem.
Despite these advancements, NEAR has faced some organizational changes, including a reduction in workforce and the departure of its CEO. However, the project continues to make strides in improving user experience and expanding its ecosystem.
Summary :
NEAR Protocol's Chain Signatures feature makes it easy for users to use their NEAR account across different blockchains. It saves users from managing multiple accounts and lets them pay transaction fees using NEAR tokens, simplifying the process. This feature also empowers developers to create innovative cross-chain applications and ensures transactions are secure and reliable. Overall, Chain Signatures set NEAR apart by offering seamless interaction between blockchains, making blockchain technology more accessible and user-friendly.
Analysis:
I expect NEAR's price to drop between two specific lines as the Bitcoin halving approaches. This dip could be a good opportunity to buy at a discounted price. After that, I'm aiming for NEAR to hit a new all-time high, potentially making a profit of 57% to 98%. This movement might attract interest from big investors or institutions, leading to more trading activity and higher prices. I'm looking for NEAR's price to consolidate or gather liquidity before making a move to higher prices.
PENDLEUSD Strong Buy Signal. Target $12.Pendle (PENDLEUSD) is on a short-term pull-back after the 1D RSI got overbought above 70.00. This is consistent with all previous times the RSI got that overbought but against common sentiment, which would suggest exhaustion of the bullish trend, that was a signal to buy halfway through the Bullish Leg.
As you can see on the two Legs before, that signal emerged at around 50% of the uptrend. As a result, we expect at least $12.000 before the next consolidation.
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BITCOIN hit a record 7 straight green months! NOT APRIL FOOL'S !Yes it is not April Fool's, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed a record 7 straight months of gains for the first time in history. Since it's inception, there hasn't been an exchange where BTC made more than 6 bullish monthly (1M) candles in a row.
What started in September 2023 as merely a hold and bottom formation on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), eventually evolved into a record breaking sequence. In fact, Bitcoin has only had 3 red months in the past 15, which makes the feat even more impressive!
Being the lengthiest such bullish sequence in history, doesn't mean that the rally is over. In fact, we can argue that it has only just begun as based on the 1M RSI, which is trading within the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, we are on symmetrical terms relative to past Bull Cycles, where the price was on November 2020, February 2017 and February 2013.
We can see that this is an impressive symmetry, and shows that we are at a point far from the cyclical peak. The previous 3 Cycles topped 12, 10 and 10 months from that RSI position respectively. If this continues, we can expect Bitcoin to rally for at least another 10 months before the Cycle peaks and the RSI approaches the Channel Top where we can gradually start taking profit!
But what do you think? Does this impressive 7-month bullish streak still have at least 10-month fuel in it? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Render (RNDR) is setting up for upto 12.50% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new trade setup of Render Token (RNDR) with US Dollar pair.
Previously we caught almost 70% pump of RNDR as below:
Now on a 4-hr time frame, RNDR is about to complete another bullish AB=CD move for the next pump.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
IMX: March 30th, 2024: BullishHi. Hope you're doing ok.
Today's setup is one of the neatest there is out there. Considering the narratives unfolding, GameFi is one of the areas where there is a lot of potential, and ImmutableX is definitely one of the leaders in this field.
The chart is incredibly bullish, and reminds me of Jasmy that I fumbled TBH. I saw a similar breakout and retest in Jasmy before that monstrous rally, but I didn't manage to get an entry. Am I implying that this will do a 200% as Jasmy did? No, honestly! When it comes to big rallies, market cap matters, and for IMX to move 200%, a lot more capital is needed. Each time IMX has rallied, we have seen diminishing results. The first rally recorded 400% while the second was about 110%. My expectation for the 5th impulsive wave is around 70% - 80%, maybe even lower depending on PA at levels of interest.
However, we have bullish break out of a HTF consolidation zone, and sooner than later a rally will probably begin. VWAPs and some major levels are viewed as support for me. EMAs 12, 21 are acting as support as well. Trend is definitely bullish, and a new impulse wave is in the cards IMO.
I have to note that I expect much higher prices in the long run, i.e. a new ATH.
Polymesh (POLYX) completed a setup upto 22% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new trade setup of Polymesh (POLYX) with US Dollar pair.
Previously we caught almost 108% pump of POLYX as below:
On a on a 4-hour time frame, POLYX has formed a bullish AB=CD move for the next price reversal.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
NULS completed a setup for up to 20.50% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well, and welcome to the new trade setup of NULS with US Dollar pair.
Recently we caught almost 24% pump of NULS as below:
Now on a 4-hr time frame, NULS has formed a bullish Gartley move for the next price reversal.
Buy between: $0.8339 to $0.7920
Sell between: $0.8926 to $0.9547
Stop loss: $0.7920
Possible profit ratio:
As per above targets there is a profit possibility of upto 20.50% a loss possibility is upto 5.50%.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
SOLANA Will it hit $155 or $310 first?Solana (SOLUSD) is trading within a Triangle pattern within a longer term Channel Up on the 1D time-frame. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been basically supporting since late September 2023 (it only broke once for 4 days in late January 2024) when the previous similar Channel Up started.
That Channel Up also formed a Triangle half-way through and when the price broke to the upside, it peaked on its 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we will buy in case a similar bullish break-out takes place and target $310. If the Triangle breaks to the downside first though, we will short and target the 1D MA50 at $155.
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ETHEREUM Can $9000 be a minimum target?We haven't looked at Ethereum (ETHUSD) since the start of the year (January 09, see chart below) but it did give us an excellent symmetrical buy opportunity and easily hit our $3000 Target:
We now move out to the 1W time-frame in order to understand where the current 2-week pull-back is positioned relative to the previous Cycle. As you can see, ETH is past a 1W MA50/ 100 Bullish Cross, as well as the first consolidation at the start of the green Channel Up, which during 2020/21 took it to its All Time High (ATH) of $4900.
It appears that we are on the symmetrical pull-back (blue Cup) after the Accumulation Phase's Resistance (Aug - Oct 2020). This can be even more efficiently observed on the 1W RSI, as we see the first strong pull-back within the overbought territory.
The previous Cycle peaked just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous ATH. That gives us a Target of $9000 and that's the minimum in our opinion during this new Bull Cycle. The maximum is on the 2.236 Fib extension, measured from the Cycle bottom to the current High. In 2021 it fell practically on the same level as the 1.382 Fib. This time though it is considerably higher at $25000 and that gives us a maximum Target for this Cycle. What this means for us as investors is that, the majority of our ETH will be converted at 9k and we will leave just a few in case we see that 25k extreme.
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The Ripple Effect: XRP/USD ambitious Targets Or Lost AauseAh, the rollercoaster ride of XRP/USD trading since 2021! We may have missed the boat on our buying opportunity, but hey, who doesn't love a good challenge? Hoping for a nice, healthy drawback, we set our sights on a retest of the previous support level at $0.6 before shooting for the stars. But of course, the universe had other plans – cue the resistance at the previous ATH. Classic!
Creating a harmonics pattern, we danced around that $0.6 support, only to break it on our final push to the harmonics pattern TP, sending us tumbling down to the $0.30 levels. What a thrill! Talk about a bullish channel forming right before our eyes.
Now, we're eagerly awaiting that break of the $0.60 support on the lower timeframes. Come on, little buddy, you can do it! Once that's in the bag, we'll be sipping on confidence cocktails as we watch it transform into support once again. But hey, if not, brace yourselves for a plunge to the next structural zone. Yikes!
Dreaming big, we've got our eyes on the $4.00 range. Ambitious? Perhaps. More likely? Well, let's just say we'll settle for reaching that precious ATH – if we're lucky!
Remember, folks, it's all about probability – no trading advice here, just good old-fashioned risk-taking. Dollar-cost averaging is the name of the game, and hey, maybe investing is just a tad bit safer than trading – but where's the fun in that?
Here's to riding the waves of the crypto market – may the odds be ever in your favor!
Keywords: XRP/USD, trading analysis, humorous trading, Ripple effect, support levels, resistance levels, harmonics pattern, bullish channel, targets, risk-taking, dollar-cost averaging, investing, probability, trading advice.
AGIXUSD 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg begins.SingularityNET (AGIXUSD) is having a tremendous rally since the start of the year and after a 2-week pause with red candles, it appears to be resuming the uptrend sequence. That is 2nd the Bullish Leg within the dominant Channel Up pattern that started after the July 11 2022 market bottom.
The 1st Bullish Leg posted a +1965% rise and was rejected exactly on the previous All Time High (ATH). We expect a similar rally, so our target is $3.2500.
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