Cryptocurrencysignals
BITCOIN Have you forgotten what LOGARITHMIC is all about??In the early days Bitcoin (BTCUSD) charts were very often about its parabolic rallies not just on a large Cycle scale but also shorter term. That's because its been having a Logarithmic Growth since its inception.
Lately though it appears that most have forgotten all about this. Let's refresh our memory on that logarithmic truly means for Bitcoin. On this 1W chart, we display BTC's heavy benchmarks on the logarithmic (log) scale. $1 gave way to $10 (leg a) in 17 weeks (119 days), then it took 96 weeks (679 days) to reach the (psychologically critical for the time) $100 benchmark (leg b). $1000 (leg c) was reached in 34 weeks (238 days), while $10000 (leg d) took 209 weeks (1463 days) after that to get hit.
Pure logarithmic growth, nothing more nothing less. An interesting observation here is that $100-to-$1000 (leg c) took double the time of leg a (c = a*2). In same fashion, leg d ($1000-to-$10000) was also almost twice as leg b (d = b*2). Could it be that the next leg (e), i.e. $10000 to $100000 (which is seen by the market as the new psychological level/ benchmark in Bitcoin's evolution) would be twice as lengthy as leg d, i.e. e d*2? This is translated to a time range of 418 weeks (2926 days), which gives us a rough projection of December 08 2025.
Could that be the correct timing for hitting Bitcoin's Holy Grail target or is it too late? Do you think its always good to keep an eye on the basics of Bitcoin's logarithmic growth? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Haven't we seen this before??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to repeat its historic patterns. Not always in the exact same way but some principles remain. Since March 2023 we see a consolidation/ accumulation pattern which in our opinion draws comparisons with April - June 2020.
A Falling Wedge gave way to an aggressive break-out that formed an arc top, which then declined again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). At the moment we are in the phase where the price is again above the 1D MA50. As you can see the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting this whole time, since it formed a Bullish Cross with the 1D MA50. The RSI patterns between the two fractals are also similar.
We are well aware that 2020 was a Halving year while 2023 is not, but at least on a micro level, do you think that if the 1D MA50 holds, it will give way to some type of short-term rise? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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RUNEUSD Megaphone rebound aiming higher.THORChain (RUNEUSD) is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as short-term Resistance after a clear-cut bounce at the bottom of the Megaphone pattern and just above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This mobilizes the 1W MA levels to come into focus and justifies a short-term (at least) buy towards 2.5000 (top of Megaphone and expected contact with the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line)).
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$FXS Performing Falling wedge CRYPTOCAP:FXS Performing Falling wedge in 1D Keep eye on Breakout
Falling Wedge
The falling wedge can either be a reversal or continuation signal.
As a reversal signal, it is formed at a bottom of a downtrend, indicating that an uptrend would come next.
As a continuation signal, it is formed during an uptrend, implying that the upward price action would resume. Unlike the rising wedge, the falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern.
In this example, the falling wedge serves as a reversal signal. After a downtrend, the price made lower highs and lower lows.
Notice how the falling trend line connecting the highs is steeper than the trend line connecting the lows.
If we placed an entry order above that falling trend line connecting the pair’s highs, we would’ve been able to jump in on the strong uptrend and caught some pips!
A good upside target would be the height of the wedge formation.
BITCOIN & Chinese stocks. The Divergence that happens mid-Cycle.This is another very informative study that brings together Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and this time, the Chinese stock market (CN50 - blue trend-line). We are looking into the last two Cycles and how in particular the Chinese stocks often lead BTC moves before they happen.
Our focus is in the phase after the Bear Cycle bottom and before the Halvings. As you can see during both of the last market bottoms, the Chinese stocks started to rise first and a few weeks after BTC followed. This led us to the Divergence phases (then 2019 now 2023), which precede the Halving events. During those phases, we see the two assets diverge. In 2019 the Chinese stocks kept rising while BTC fell. In 2023 the Chinese stocks are declining but on a low pace, while BTC mostly rose.
Theoretically, the closer we will get to the Halving, the more the two should converge. But does this mean that a potential rise on Chinese stocks will first make BTC decline more? Or it will resume the norm that China will lead BTC moves again, i.e. BTC will follow with a rise of itself?
What do you think, which scenario will take place first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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GALAUSD Short-term buy signal on a Bullish DivergenceGala (GALAUSD) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since early January and recently got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the declining trend, the 1D RSI is on Higher Lows, i.e. a strong Bullish Divergence.
The Lower Highs trend-line has been broken, and the previous two times it did so within the Channel Down after a bearish leg, a counter-rebound took place. As a result we consider this a buy signal towards the top of the Channel Down. We don't wish to exceed the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), thus our target will be contained at 0.0170.
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BITCOIN Yuan & China bonds tell you everything you need to know!This is not the first time we emphasize the strong correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with Yuan (USDCNY) and the Chinese Bond Yields (CN02Y and CN20Y). We made an analysis right in the aftermath of the FTX crash, indicating why those indicators have all aligned, paving the way for BTC's new Bull Cycle. As you see that happened and this time we incorporate two mixed elements, the USDCNY/CNY20Y (red trend-line) and the CN02Y/CN20Y (blue trend-line).
** The CN02Y/CN20Y ratio **
Every time the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio's Lower Highs broke in the past, Bitcoin started the second phase of the Bull Cycle. Typically this was achieved while BTC was within a Channel Up (green). Right now the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio is testing its Lower Highs trend-line.
** The USDCNY/CN20Y ratio **
The CN02Y/CN20Y break-out has historically taken place a little after the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio peaked and started to decline. Not unexpected based on hard economics as a cheaper currency favors capital flowing to risky assets (such as Bitcoin). Right now the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio has started to decline but not emphatically yet, even though the 2023 rally is very similar to the ratio's peak rallies of January - March 2020 and June - October 2016.
** The harmony of the Sine Waves **
It is very interesting to point out the high degree of symmetry between those CN02Y/CN20Y break-outs and USDCNY/CN20Y rejections. We have applied the Sine Waves tool on them and the trend turns out so harmonic, almost like a Cycle itself. This shows that at the bottom of the Sine Waves, it has never been a bad idea to buy historically.
This mix is incredibly bullish for Bitcoin technically and it prompts to a new parabolic rally as we get closer to the next Halving, the likes of which we may have not seen in the past. But what do you think? Is this pattern good enough for you to buy when the ratio's Lower Highs break-out takes place? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Alpaca Finance (ALPACA) forming Shark for upto 45.50% pumpHi dear members , hope you are well and welcome to the new trade setup of Alpaca Finance (ALPACA) with US Dollar pair.
Recently we caught almost 48% pump of ALPACA as below:
Now on a 4-hr time frame, ALPACA is about to complete a bullish Shark move for the next price reversal.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
XTZUSD Extinct crypto starting to move?Tezos (XTZUSD), a long forgotten market favorite, is posting today the strongest 1D green candle since February 22 2023. This is backed up by a long 1D RSI Bullish Divergence. As long as the 0.6300 Support holds, we expect XTZ to target first the Lower Highs 2 (dashed) trend-line and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and finally the strongest long-term Resistance Cluster, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) along with the 0.92500 Resistance.
Our target is 0.9000. Notice the similarities between the current mid-2023 Triangle, with that a year ago in 2022. That broke the Support to the downside and extended to the 2.0 Fibonacci level, while the current is breaking above the Triangle. Keep that in mind however, in case the 0.63000 Support breaks.
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BITCOIN The Gaussian giving one of the rarest buys you can get.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within the (now green) Gaussian Channel since the mid-August decline. It is no surprise that it held that low and trade basically sideways as once the Gaussian turns green historically, it has signaled the phase of the bull market before the Halving. It shouldn't turn red again before the new Bear Cycle.
Last time BTC dipped inside a green Gaussian Channel after breaking into while red, was in October 2019. December - January 2020 followed with a strong rise before the non-technical and outside of any model's reach Black Swan event of COVID (which is an irregularity and doesn't count on our models).
As a result, such Gaussian green dip and trade is a rare buy opportunity during a Bull Cycle while prices are still relatively low. For reference, such an opportunity didn't emerge in the 2016 - 2017 Bull Cycle. Perhaps a 1W RSI at 40.00 would be the most ideal buy entry (lowest risk/ highest return).
But what do you think? Is this Gaussian pattern good enough for you to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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PHB Phoenix Global forming a bullish AB=CD for upto 26% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new trade setup of PHB Phoenix Global (new) with US Dollar pair.
Previously we caught more than 26% pump of PHB as below:
Now on a daily time frame, PHB is about to complete a bullish AB=CD move for the next price reversal.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
LQTYUSD Some more fuel left to burn on this rise.Liquity (LQTYUSD) broke yesterday above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 14. That is the 2nd major bullish break-out signal since the breaking over the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line on October 01. The presence of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level now shouldn't stop this rally, but Resistance 1 (1.8200) could. As a result we are only willing to take the risk until 1.8000, as the 1D RSI is vastly overbought (85.00). After that, look for the best buy opportunity on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again.
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BITCOIN May not face again a Resistance Zone as strong as this!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the last 10 days. This neutrality, this sideways price action may be directly attributed to the presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since the top of the previous Bull Cycle.
But it's not only that double hurdle level that BTC needs to overcome. Directly above it, we have the 31800 Resistance (July 13 2023 High), which is also the Mega Pivot Zone between the two Cycles, as it started as a Support Zone (closing all 1W candles from May - July 2021 above it with emphasis) and since May 2022 has been the Resistance to beat.
It becomes obvious that this is a quadruple Resistance level and quite frankly the strongest obstacle BTC has faced thus far during the 2023 recovery phase and quite possibly a Resistance Cluster the likes of which may not face again during this new Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Is this the most critical Resistance Zone for Bitcoin and if so, will it break now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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$CREAM still so look bullish$CREAM Performed Bullish Symmetrical in 1D TF
What is a Symmetrical Triangle
A symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern characterized by two converging trend lines connecting a series of sequential peaks and troughs. These trend lines should be converging at a roughly equal slope. Trend lines that are converging at unequal slopes are referred to as a rising wedge, falling wedge, ascending triangle, or descending triangle.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Symmetrical triangles occur when a security's price is consolidating in a way that generates two converging trend lines with similar slopes.
The breakout or breakdown targets for a symmetrical triangle is equal to the distance between the initial high and low applied to the breakout or breakdown point.
Many traders use symmetrical triangles in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis that act as a confirmation.
LOOMUSD A rise the likes of which we've never seen.Loom Network (LOOMUSD) is on the 5th straight green 1W candle, with the last 3 weeks in particular being the strongest bullish sequence LOOM has seen since its historic All Time High on the week of April 30 2018!
Last week it closed the first 1W candle above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs Resistance and the 1W LMACD sequences resembles the last strong rally of 2020 - early 2021. Based on that we should be currently on leg (c), which can extend all the way to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, despite the presence of Resistance 1 (0.26900). Our target is 0.60000.
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BITCOIN Cycle mapping like you've never seen it before!On today's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) study, we plot the historic Cycles on top one another, classifying them into different phases. This is an alternative but very useful way at looking in BTC's historic cyclical action as it offers a sound perspective regarding our current place on the Cyclical Scale.
As you can see, the 2011 - 2013 Cycle is displayed in blue, the 2014 - 2017 Cycle in orange, the 2018 - 2021 Cycle in black and the current one 2022 onwards in red. The phases are: Bear (red), Accumulation (orange), 1st Rally (blue) and 2nd Rally (green). The three most recent Cycles are plotted as they are in terms of duration but the 2011 - 2013 one is stretched in order to fit the phase classifications and relate to the more recent Cycles.
As a result, its Halving (1) is also moved to its respective spot. It is no coincidence then that all Halvings (1 through 4) fall close to each other on what we call "the Halving Belt". Now this Cycle display gives a sound sense of Bitcoin's Cyclical perspective in relative terms (for Cycle 1). The "we are here" vertical line reveals the respective place relative to the past Cycles. As you see, it is about to end the Accumulation Phase and as it approaches Halving 4, start the 1st Rally Phase of the Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Does this chart give a fair sense of where we are now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ALT SEASON underway and this Support shows you WHY!Looking at this chart, it becomes more obvious how the alt coin market, which broke this Summer above the Bear Cycle's Falling Wedge, is preparing for a big move upwards. The 494.45 level has been tested 4 times and emphatically held on all as it provided rebounds that left large 1W candle wicks behind.
The latest was on September 11 but stopped last week on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A 1W candle close above it opens the way for a Lower Highs test, similar to January 09 2023, which when it broke it started the 2nd part of the rally.
There is only one long-term Resistance left from the Bear Cycle and that is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) that is intact since May 09 2022. This what the markets target should be, we estimate a potential contact at 650B, by the end of the year.
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AAVEUSD Strong rise but still not bullish long-term.Aave (AAVEUSD) is having a strong bullish sequence since the September 11 Low on Support Zone 1. Both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) are Supports now. However, it remains inside the 1.5 year long Triangle pattern and is approaching its top (Lower Highs trend-line). This suggests that the most optimal sell entry is approaching.
The previous Lower High was priced right when the price hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The one before a little below the 0.786 Fib. Now we are approaching the 0.5 Fib so the zone between that and the Lower Highs, is the most optimal sell entry. The 1D RSI is actually printing the peak pattern of that July Lower High.
Sell and hold as long as 1D closes candles under the Lower Highs trend-line and target the 1D MA50 at 64.000. If a 1D candle closes above the 0.618 Fibonacci, buy and target 95.000 (a little below the 0.786 Fib and potential contact spot with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) which is the long-term Cyclical Resistance).
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BITCOIN Made a MACD Bullish Cross that opens the road to $40k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed a Bullish Cross on the 3D time-frame and that helped the price last week to start the short term rise that broke above the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since mid August. The previous 3 MACD Bullish Crosses have all delivered a Higher High within the 11 month Channel Up.
What's also interesting is how firmly the MA100 (green trend-line) held on the September 10 Low. Technically once BTC reclaims the MA50 (i.e. closes a full candle above it), the new bullish wave of the Channel Up will be confirmed. We expect it to test Resistance 2 at 40000, a critical psychological level.
Do you think this MACD Bullish Cross was what BTC needed to kickstart the new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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AVAXUSD Ready for a bullish break-outAvalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern for the past 6 months and is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The same kind of test after a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence was performed in AVAX's previous Channel Down on January 09 2023. Observe the perfect symmetry on the RSI levels of the two dates. When the price closed above the 1D MA50, it initiated a massive rise on the next candle that easily broke through the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and peaked a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will buy the break-out and initially target the 1D MA100 at 11.000. If it breaks above the 1D MA200, we will buy that 2nd break-out and target the 0.616 Fib at 15.500.
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