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Cycles

SPX Macro Outlook: Spring 2023 @ 1782 On the low time-frame the SPX has a blatantly obvious broadening wedge. This tends to be a bearish pattern, as volatility is increasing to the downside more so than the upside. From a fundamental analysis perspective, the economy is valued at the highest it has ever been, but the economy is the worst it has been in almost a century. Something has to give... On the high time-frame notice the trend line support extending more than 50 years to 1975! Assuming out broadening wedge plays out, and we retrace to a major support level, the pertinent question is where and when? I find it likely that the trend line support of our broadening wedge and the trend line support of the last 50 years converge at a critical point: Spring 2023 @ 1782 Analyzing the past two recessions yields interesting information. The 2000 Dot Com Bubble retraced 5.5 years of growth. The 2008 Housing Bubble retraced over 12 years of growth. Assuming the 2020 Everything Bubble retraces to that key support of 1780 and converges with two trend line supports, we will have wiped out over 7 years of growth. Attached below is a chart made in 1875 identifying the length and magnitude of market cycles. As with any model, there is a degree of error. Nonetheless, it came pretty damn close to predicting the 1913 crash, Roaring 20's, Great Depression, WWII, 1970s stagnation, 1897 crash, housing crash, booming 2010s, and now 2020. Chart: drive.google.com Now, this model predicts this depression level correction to end in, you guessed it, 2023... Wow, that lines up with this analysis of Spring 2023 being the bottom @ 1782. How odd...
TVC:SPXShort
by Riester