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BTCUSD 👋 Hey you, yea you! Don't worry just yet! 👀👂💬 Bitcoin might have taken a bearish turn as big tech dropped today, but don't let the short term price action fool you, Bitcoin is still looking bullish. Let's compare some historical price action during Bitcoin's previous uptrends to see why the top likely isn't in. Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣 --- Overview; Bitcoin tends to have clearly defined blow-off tops followed by clearly defined distribution cycles. The current price action looks more like it will lead to another leg up as long as we can hold above the yellow highlighted range. Typically Bitcoin sees a period of accumulation after a significant rise in price (A), then sees a mix of accumulation and Distribution after another rise in price (B), and then a blow-off top ©. During this period, we see market breadth remain bullish. The "top" is then followed by a pretty clear pattern of lower blow-off tops and an upward channel, while market breadth turns bearish, before a drop and a new accumulation phase. We currently see that price action has not shown us any of those noted warning signs yet, so we estimate that we are likely in a "B" phase. Use the guidelines below to understand the chart and write-up above better. Guidelines: Circles: The circles represent previous blow-off tops for Bitcoin Channels: The upwards channels that when deviated from then signal the top being in Colored lines and Letters: A = Accumulation after a significant rise in price B = Continued Accumulation with some distribution mixed in C = Distribution with confirmed blow-off top Horizontal boxes: Green = holding here would be best for short term rise Yellow = holding here for bulls last hope Red = these levels are HODL ranges of interest --- Summary: As long as Bitcoin holds above the yellow highlighted range we don't think the top is in yet. If this is the top, we expect a distribution pattern similar to what we have seen before, which means some attempts to get back, a change in market breadth, and another upwards channel. ✨ Drop a comment letting us know what you think?! ✨
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AlphaBotSystem
11
SPX Macro Outlook: Spring 2023 @ 1782 On the low time-frame the SPX has a blatantly obvious broadening wedge. This tends to be a bearish pattern, as volatility is increasing to the downside more so than the upside. From a fundamental analysis perspective, the economy is valued at the highest it has ever been, but the economy is the worst it has been in almost a century. Something has to give... On the high time-frame notice the trend line support extending more than 50 years to 1975! Assuming out broadening wedge plays out, and we retrace to a major support level, the pertinent question is where and when? I find it likely that the trend line support of our broadening wedge and the trend line support of the last 50 years converge at a critical point: Spring 2023 @ 1782 Analyzing the past two recessions yields interesting information. The 2000 Dot Com Bubble retraced 5.5 years of growth. The 2008 Housing Bubble retraced over 12 years of growth. Assuming the 2020 Everything Bubble retraces to that key support of 1780 and converges with two trend line supports, we will have wiped out over 7 years of growth. Attached below is a chart made in 1875 identifying the length and magnitude of market cycles. As with any model, there is a degree of error. Nonetheless, it came pretty damn close to predicting the 1913 crash, Roaring 20's, Great Depression, WWII, 1970s stagnation, 1897 crash, housing crash, booming 2010s, and now 2020. Chart: drive.google.com Now, this model predicts this depression level correction to end in, you guessed it, 2023... Wow, that lines up with this analysis of Spring 2023 being the bottom @ 1782. How odd...
TVC:SPXShort
by Riester