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Cycles

Is the SNP500 ready for another correction?I firmly believe that we should soon see a correction deeper than the one we recently had which began at the start of September. The chart suggests that after finally breaking out of the bear wedge; which began at the start of the lows of the correction in March 2020, we are now witnessing what looks like to be a retest of that bear wedge. With the addition of negative weekly RSI divergence this should see some firm movement downwards, below the low recorded in the first week of October. Hard to see the market giving way to such a huge drop, but the market carrier Tesla is due a correction after extreme growth in the recent weeks.
TVC:SPXShort
by SkyTrees
S&P 500 Numerology - Hypothesis of Major Cycle TopThe concept of numerology is most often not taken seriously for obvious reasons. Most principally, it is because it doesn't make logical sense to the human brain. The human brain (of those rooted in western culture, at least) is more attuned to Newtonian logic, structured systems, or the stamp of approval from some poorly run university journal than it is accepting certain "coincidental" truths. The entire subject of "microeconomics" is a testament to this need to reduce human behavior into four or five hard, mathematical equations. I have personally taken a microeconomics class and I can safely say that none of the concepts can be practically applied to real life commerce. Please refrain from commenting if you disagree; you can instead have more fun trying to calculate individual elasticities for trade idea subscriptions. Wow, got pretty sidetracked there. My point is that keeping an open mind to certain market-related concepts can really broaden your understanding of how price action actually works. If that isn't incentive enough, then it can also substantially improve your timing accuracy and a general sense of market direction. If this still isn't incentive enough, then you might be inelastic to certain trade idea subscriptions. I wouldn't know though, since I dropped the class after lecture number 1. In theme with open-mindedness, check out the numerological proof above. The basis for this idea derives from W.D. Gann's concept of squaring price with time, which can be interpreted in any number of ways and applied as such. Basically, his idea stems from his observation that market trends change direction during those instances where some amount of price is equal to some passage of time. Put another way, the market cannot reverse its trend unless the underlying reaches a certain diagonal distance away from its origin, such that the y-axis distance equals the x-axis distance. Put another way, if the diagonal distance from a given origin point is equally distant horizontally and vertically from either respective axis, then that diagonal distance can be drawn at a 45-degree angle, such that a perfect square can be traced around it. If this still seems confusing, that's because it is. The concept of time and price squared is often misinterpreted, and even more often, applied incorrectly. Ever try using a "square of nine" and wondering what the hell you were doing for that many hours? Classic case of not really understanding the concept of price/time squared. The truth is that Gann's work is extremely intensive and valid educational resources are both difficult to come by and usually quite expensive. If you ever come across something Gann-related that isn't either of those things, then it's likely incomplete and will surely leave you more confused than you were beforehand. To alleviate your confusion about the point of my numerological proof up there, all I did was take the square root of a number of calendar days between March 6th, 2009 and September 2nd, 2021 and compared that quotient with the square root of the number of dollars/share in between the low price reached on the former date and the high price reached on the latter date. If the high of 4545 reached last September really is the top of some major trend, then it must necessarily tie out with a corresponding bottom made at some point X in the past. The two square-root quotients of price difference and time difference between two separate dates must relate in some sort of numerological way for these dates to define the starting point and the ending point of an apparent trend. The more obvious and literal the connection, the more sure you can be that you've nailed the defining start and end dates to a major S&P trend. If you don't believe me, then try it out on another set of dates. Eventually, you will see what I mean (hint: try starting your search on a major round number like the first date that hits 1000 price points). Now, if you've read up until this point, I commend you. Your reward in doing so is knowing that the proof succeeded, which means that the September high will not be exceeded in the near future; certainly not in 2021. You should also know that this is stated in the chart above. -CoinciPig SP:SPX TVC:DJI TVC:IXIC
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
21
Small correction for BTC/USDT | Big Pump AfterwardsGreetings, In the chart you will see the slogan "history repeats itself" depicted on the price of BTC/USDT. Bulls are taking profits since the second pump of the price of the mother of cryptocurrencies. This is taking the price downwards but that doesn't need to scare us. The second wave is incoming as the bulls are accumulating while the bears are selling. This process is taking the price downwards to the green area marked as "Buy zone after correction". Once we reach the green by zone, the price will see a pump of around 50%-60%. After the third pump we will see All time highs for BTC. This is not a financial advise as it's my view for the price of BTC. Never trade without making your own analysis and be smart when it comes to money.
Long
by Engindzhan
BAYN: Long (end of cycle + support)Hello everyone!!! Bayer AG at the channel support. There is hope for the end of the bearish trend that began in 2015. Additionally, according to the cyclical analysis, we can see the completion of a cycle of 1610 days (or 230 weeks, or 4.5 years). The cycle was repeated 7 times: of which 5 times there was an increase in the share price and 2 times - a fall. Therefore, this time too, we can expect the price to rise at least to the slope and horizontal resistance lines - about € 79 or 70% = take profit. My stop loss is set at € 42.610 (about -12% and 3% below the last local low). As for the indicators, the background is bullish. However, there was a huge bullish gap in 1996 and it has not been closed until now .... I plan to increase my position using the pyramiding method. Not a recommendation, not advice. I wish everyone a lot of profit !! PS Bayer AG - is a German multinational pharmaceutical and life sciences company and one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. Headquartered in Leverkusen, Bayer's areas of business include human and veterinary pharmaceuticals; consumer healthcare products; agricultural chemicals, seeds and biotechnology products. The company is a component of the Euro Stoxx 50 stock market index. Werner Baumann has been CEO since 2016. Founded in Barmen in 1863 as a dyestuffs factory, Bayer's first and best-known product was aspirin. en.wikipedia.org
XETR:BAYNLong
by Dr_Chester
1
PALL resurgence medium termLooks like PALL is repeating a previous pattern. Very cyclic and resolves well with Williams Vix Fix. I see a local bottom that was supported with strong resistance from Aug 2021 to current. If growth is continued as anticipated, this commodity will rebound. If safe havens are sought, this commodity will also grow. Solid indicator data fitting PALL for a 20%+ gain in the next 2-3 months. Short term - I think the buy is in the 170-175 range within the next week or two. For ease of interp - lime green indicates local bottom. Just my thoughts.
AMEX:PALLLong
by Elkinthewoods1
⚡️ Crypto Insights ⚡️ #2 - Altcoin CyclesIn this visual we can see an orange graph overlaid onto the BTC price chart for the last peak back in April. This orange graph represents the collective market cap for all crypto excluding BTC. We can see that the price of altcoins lag behind the price of BTC and actually top around around 3 weeks after the peak. If you go back and look at the ATH at the end of 2017 you will see a very similar pattern. Altcoins tend to lag a few weeks behind BTC and, therefore, peak after BTC highs also. If you are an investor, this is a key sign to watch out for and if you have made significant gains will give you a strategic exit.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Flow_Capital
AMC End of October: Is $36 the bottom or back to $32?3 weeks have pass since October. I was wrong about the bullish hammer. I expect to go up today but it went down. One pattern I hesitate and over look was the head and shoulder pattern. The price action today confirms the head and shoulder patterns. Interestingly back in September the same thing has occur. And now what to expect October. Will the algorithm repeats? If so, I expect AMC to dip even further to $32 based on the fib retrace of $28.92 and $44.44. If not I expect $36 is the bottom and we are not looking back. The falling wedge will be determine by next week price action.
NYSE:AMC
by gojira91
5
Fourier: Interpreting and Over-interpreting Frequency AnalysisGreetings to all! In this post, I'd like to share some thoughts on frequency analysis based on Fourier transform. This mathematical method breaks down data into cyclical constituents (frequency components). Then the importance of each frequency component in the original data is expressed as the square of its amplitude, that is, power . Some time ago I published a Pine Script implementation of the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm. I made it specially designed to be used for filtering data based on its frequency content. The concept of FFT filtering is well known and quite simple (for detail, see the link to my script below). When it comes to frequency analysis , that's a whole different story. Using the power versus FFT frequency plot (i.e., the spectrum ) to study the data is an extremely popular analytical technique in science and technology. But with financial data, it is tougher than it sounds. When dealing with noisy, non-stationary and overall uncertain price data, the FFT never works as well as it does in math textbooks. Here, to illustrate the capabilities, limitations, and some myths of frequency analysis, I generated artificial price data, applied an FFT to each price column, and plotted a power spectrum as a function of time (i.e. a spectrogram ). The spectrogram shows frequency information along the vertical axis. The lowest frequency content is displayed at the bottom, the highest frequency content is displayed at the top. Frequencies are given as the number of cycles per sample size (256 bars in the above chart). Power levels are defined by the color map shown to the right. As for the generated data, it is basically a random walk with a few non-random constituents added at given time intervals (sinusoidal functions and a gap). Now let's discuss a few aspects seen in the chart: 1. True periodicity Starting on a high note, if there is real oscillatory behavior in the data (see the green and red areas in the above chart), the FFT can reveal this quite well. The problem is that the frequency resolution is heavily influenced by the sample size. For example, with a sample size of 64 price bars, it is impossible to resolve cycles longer than, you guessed it, 64 bars. It should also be noted that the ideal deterministic sinusoidal functions shown in the above chart can never be found in real market data. 2. Discontinuities If there is a gap, it's bad. Gaps, that is, discontinuities in the data, are prominent features that have broad and smooth frequency spectra that can overshadow other features. If you google "Fourier transform of a step function", you can see what I mean. Thus, if a gap occurs somewhere within the sample window, the Fourier spectrum is unlikely to be reliable. 3. Random walk This is not surprising, but even purely random data can produce rich frequency content. It is even difficult to tell from the spectrogram where the purely-random area changes into the one containg a sinusoid. (Well, if we accept the random walk theory of markets, the last comment does not make much sense. But here we are talking about syncretic data). The situation, however, becomes much more fun if we analyze the change in data per bar (i.e., data - data ), rather than the actual data. In the case of a random walk, these changes are purely ... well, random. And it is known from textbooks that the Fourier spectrum of random noise contains only noise. However, in areas containing sine, there is an order in the data. In other words, the data is autocorrelated. As a result, the FFT spectra of the data reveal the corresponding frequency components way above the noise level. In this sense, Fourier analysis may seem as a potential tool to to test market efficiency. (There is even a Fourier-based version of the Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity of time series, but that is a different story.) However, I am not aware if it can somehow outperform the more commonly used tests. Conclusion In the context of financial time series, the Fourier transform is often associated with the estimation of marked cycles. I think that's why it has become one of the most polarizing technical tools out there. While it is certainly a powerful math tool, it is helpful to know its limitations. Can one capitalize on the revealed qualitative information about the "cycle" periods? Regardless of how to think about the concept of market cycles, I don't think so. But could the Fourier transform be potentially useful in general for analyzing price data? Definitely yes! See below for how to use FFT to filter data:
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPYEducation
by tbiktag
29
BTCUSD "Economic Bubble"?Thought it fitting to sketch Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue "Economic Bubble"model over BTCUSD Weekly TF. Imagine how fast this would move once "FEAR" was to properly set in. Thoughts on price action over the next month? "DISCLAIMER: NO ADVICE. The information presented here is general in nature and is for education purposes only. Nothing should be considered to be advice. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation."
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Trader_Johnni
9
KWEB LONG: DOUBLE DIAMOND + CHANNEL BOTTOM + OSCILLATORS1. Price has drawn 2 diamonds (diamond in diamond) at the bottom of the increasing (purple) channel. Buy signal. 2. A cycle with a length of 756 days (25 months) is found, according to which the price is now at the bottom of the cycle. Buy signal. 3. All major oscillators and indicators are in oversold zones and give long signals. 4. It is necessary to remember about the resistance of the local downtrend (orange). * At the same time, the fundamental background in China is still negative. I entered a long position with a trailing stop loss below the lower edge of the small diamond. After breaking through and/or retesting the upper edge of a large diamond, and then after breaking through the orange resistance, I will buy more. In case the price falls, my trailing sell order will save me. Not advice. Not a financial recommendation.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by Dr_Chester
5
Bitcoin Analyze (Cycles 🔄 + Head and Shoulder Festival)!!!Hi, Today when I was sure about the head and shoulder patten's necking line was broken (Trusty) + when we have 2 new major pivots that we can find new targets for ending this bear rally, I decided to update my last post about Bitcoin (Topic: Bitcoin Analyze (Cycles)!!!🔄== it moved as I expected✅👇). Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ) Timeframe Daily⏰ Location🌊: about the location of Bitcoin, please read my post with the topic ''Bitcoin Analyze_Road Map🗺️(Update)!!!'', this post is running well like my Cycles 😊. Cycles🔄: we have 4 cycles on my chart, cycles 1&3 are Ascending, cycles 2&4 are Descending. again, I repeat the cycles specifications in this post. Cycle 1: Starting price: 29420$ Final price: 64854$ start date: 27 Jan 2021 End date: 14 Apr 2021 Cycle time: 77 days Price growth: 35612.28$ (121.79%) Cycle 2: Starting price: 64854$ Final price: 29278$ start date: 14 Apr 2021 End date: 20 Jul 2021 Cycle time: 97 days price reduction: -35576$ (-54.86%) Cycle 3: Starting price: 29278$ Final price: 52920$ start date: 20 Jul 2021 End date: 7 Sep 2021 Cycle time: 49 days Price growth: 23642$ (80.75%) Cycle 4: Starting price: 52920$ Final price: ❓❓ $ start date: 7 Sep 2021 End date: ❓❓ Cycle time: ❓❓ days price reduction: ❓❓ $ (❓❓ %) 🎯The aim of this post🎯: finding question marks for Cycle 4. for finding answers, I tried to check out the times and prices for cycles + I tried to use 2 new major pivots & Head and Shoulder pattern: Price growth cycle 1/Price growth cycle 3 = 35612.28$/23642$ = 1.5063 Price (percentage) growth cycle 1/Price (percentage) growth cycle 3 = 121.79%/80.75% = 1.508 Cycle time 1/Cycle time 3 = 77 days/ 49 days = 1.5714 From high ratios, we can know that number👉 1.5 👈 can be a key Coefficient for Calculations required for cycle 4. I used from 1.5 for finding a final price, end date, cycle time, and price reduction of Cycle 4. price reduction: 35576$/ 1.5 = 23717$ price reduction (percentage): -54.86%/1.5 = -36.57% cycle time : 97 days/1.5 = 64.66 day == 65 day Final price (1): 35440$ until 33400$, New Zone that I found from 2 new major pivots (Fib Tools) and Head and Shoulder Pattern's Target Final price (2): 33400$ until 28900$ ➡️ this zone is following my post that I published on Aug 23, topic ''Bitcoin Analyze 🗺️🔥(Counting Waves + Road map+ Long-term)🔥🗺️'' end date: around 11 Nov 2021 ( probably on Nov or Dec 2021) ➡️ these dates are following my post that I published on Aug 23, topic ''Bitcoin Analyze 🗺️🔥(Counting Waves + Road map+ Long-term)🔥🗺️''. also, I set fan principle on our cycles and I tried to find the degree between lines of fan principles by key Coefficient 🔥1.5🔥, we can follow Bitcoin with this pattern. The degree between line 1 & line 2 (red lines) = 17° The degree between line 1 & line 2 (Blue lines) = 17°/1.5 = 11.33°== 11°== this degree worked well, we can see on my chart how did degree work for us 😉. also, we can see 2 Head and Shoulder Patterns + 1 Reverse Head and Shoulder Pattern that they made our cycle. I guess that for ending this bear rally, we will see another Reverse Head and Shoulder Pattern. in addition, we have the same Downward trends line's Degree on cycles 2 & 4 on RSI + RSI was able to break Support 👇https://www.tradingview.com/x/GlqlgI5W/ Note: if the price can break my important Downward trend line == my scenario will fail. ❗️Sign❗️: if you remember that when we were at around 36000$, Bitcoin touched 48168$ on BITCOIN / TETHERUS PERPETUAL FUTURES , and finally price arrived itself to this amount, yesterday we saw the same happens, and Bitcoin dropped down from 52000$ to 42800$, probably Bitcoin will arrive at 42850$ again === we saw 42850$ as I expected✅, try to use signs 😎 from this sign, we can find another target for ending this bear rally ==around 38000$ 👇https://www.tradingview.com/x/TlSYiVjK/ My Suggestion: you can follow my lines. probably my lines will work and help us👍😉. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅'like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
by pejman_zwin
18
WHY BTC LOW OF $16K-18K EOY 2022 AND NEXT TOP OF $205K Q4 2025Pulled a fib ext from the low of bear market Jan 2015 up to the top of cycle in Dec 2017. As you can see it made a full retrace down to the .236 before making its climb back up finding big resistance at the .618 and testing back to the .382 and ultimately the .236 again due to the covid crash in 2020. It eventually made the climb up the extension finding strong resistance/support at 1.618 in the low-mid 30K region and then upward to the cycle top of 64K at the 3.272 fib level. As you can see the VWAP was placed at the cycle low of $196 and was perfectly tested in Dec 2018marking the low of the upcoming cycle. The next fib ext was pulled from the low of the bear market Dec 2018 up to the top of the cycle Apr 2021. I used the bear low of $3148 and the cycle top of $64.8K, hence the overlapping fib extensions. This leads me to believe that based on a full retrace BTC should bottom in the green box area around the $16K-18K level at the .236 fib and the VWAP which is right on track for green box target and was placed at the $3150 bear market lows. An additional piece of confluence at this area is the CME gap @ $18.5K and the meeting of the parabola with the descending trendline coming from the peak. Based on this playing out we should see a peak in the next cycle at the 3.272 fib ext at the price of $205K, conservatively $195K-ish due to the psychological $200k barrier. I dont see BTC breaking that descending trendline coming down from the $64k top until late 2022 and then bottoming out sometime in the spring of 2023. You cant see the 3.272 level due to me zooming in to see more details in the PA that is already occured but if you pull it yourself you'll see it. Posting this mostly to see how this ages however if it is correct and plays out we are able to look forward to the next cycle for targets of the top and bottom. The prices seem crazy but it would be ball park bottom of $60K-70K with a top of approx $6150K-630K-ish but that is pure crystal ball stuff its so far away but it does line up to the price level the low of $60-70k and parabola and the halvening in 2028. My only to buy zones are $65K or $16K-20K....whichever happens first!! Leave comments if you have any.
BNC:BLXLong
by reaper88
2