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D-DAX

Addendum to “The Turning Tides”Following our initial publication, we've received some astute feedback that warrants further and more in-depth discussion. A reader correctly noted that the DAX and Euro STOXX 50 differ in their treatment of dividends - a detail we initially glossed over for simplicity's sake. The DAX is a performance index, including dividends, while the Euro STOXX 50 is a price index, excluding dividends. Understandably, it's a distinction that does play a role in their historical performances. It's also worth noting that a more apple-to-apple comparison to the DAX Index future might be the Euro STOXX 50 Index Total Return future (TESX). However, we originally chose the more popular FESX future due to its better liquidity and much longer history (TESX was only launched in 2016). In addition, the availability of Micro future contracts also makes it more retail friendly. Our primary exploration focused on overarching macroeconomic factors and sectoral shifts, which are pivotal to understanding the relative performance between the indices. However, dividends' contribution to long-term performance is undeniably significant. Therefore, it is prudent to revisit our DAX-to-STOXX50 comparison, this time adjusting for dividends. For this purpose, we've chosen the SPDR® EURO STOXX 50® ETF (FEZ) as a proxy for a dividend-adjusted STOXX50. The ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, generally correspond to the total return performance of the STOXX50 Index, and it has been around since 2002. One thing to note about FEZ is that it’s USD-denominated; therefore, we need to consider EUR/USD exchange rate move over the years in order to get as close a proxy as possible. Here's an updated chart of the DAX vs. the dividend and exchange rate adjusted STOXX50 ETF. The revised perspective still affirms DAX's relative outperformance over the past decade, although less pronounced than the FDAX vs FESX futures comparison suggests. On a closer look at the ratio between the DAX and the dividend-adjusted FEZ, a clear and massive topping pattern emerges, and it has arguably broken the neckline support. In other words, it appears that the DAX is likely going to continue underperforming the STOXX50 on a dividend-adjusted basis. (Due to certain technical limitations on TradingView, the following chart is presented as dividend and exchange rate adjusted FEZ/FDAX but on an inverted scale. Effectively, this means we're still viewing the FDAX/FEZ relationship.) This finer detail serves as a reminder of the multifaceted complexity within financial markets and the multitude of factors influencing asset performance. It also underscores the invaluable contribution of reader feedback, enabling us to deliver deeper, more nuanced market analyses. We deeply appreciate your active engagement and eagerly anticipate further enriching discussions.
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by inspirante
DAX above the 1D MA50, has already started the new rally.DAX broke yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again after rebounding at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the December 2022 Bullish Megaphone pattern. This is the new technical bullish leg that will aim to form the next Higher High. On a similar way with the previous bottom rebound on March 20, the Low was also priced after the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) broke. Their RSI patterns are also identical, with the current attempting to test its Lower Highs trend-line before breaking it. The MACD Bullish Cross that was just formed is also in line with the previous two (March 29 and January 03). Every Cross below 0.0 is a long-term buy opportunity. Our target is just under the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at 16800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingShot
DAX Index Rallies after Ending 3 Waves Corrective PullbackShort term Elliott Wave view in DAX suggests the Index ended wave (3) at 16427.42. Wave (4) pullback unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 16069.1 and wave ((ii)) ended at 16184.30. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 15733.12 and wave ((iv)) ended at 15874.90. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 15713.70 which completed wave A. Rally in wave B ended at 16209.29 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 15998.67, pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 15920.33 and final leg wave ((c)) ended at 16209.29 which completed wave B. The Index then extended lower in wave C towards 15453.08 which completed wave (4) in higher degree. The Index then turns higher in what looks to be impulsive structure. Up from wave (4), wave i ended at 15755.44 and dips in wave ii ended at 15659.10. Expect the Index to soon end the 5 waves rally from 7.7.2023 as wave (i), then it should pullback in wave (ii) to correct that cycle before it resumes rally. Near term, as far as pivot at 15453.08 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7 or 11 swing for further upside.
XETR:DAX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Will DAX find buyers at previous support?GER40 - 24h expiry Short term oscillators have turned positive. Previous resistance at 15750 now becomes support. The primary trend remains bullish. Prices have reacted from 15450. Trading volume is increasing. We look to Buy at 15741 (stop at 15641) Our profit targets will be 15991 and 16051 Resistance: 15851 / 15900 / 16000 Support: 15800 / 15750 / 15650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
The Turning TidesGermany, Europe's economic powerhouse, has consistently delivered impressive performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. This strong performance is rooted in Germany's strong manufacturing sectors and robust export activities. The country's economic strength is exemplified by the DAX's considerable outperformance of other European indices since the early 2000s. DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) is a blue-chip stock market index comprising the 40 largest German companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Top constituents include internationally renowned firms such as SAP, Siemens, Allianz, Airbus, and Bayer. On the other hand, the STOXX50 index represents a much broader scope, encompassing 50 of the most liquid blue-chip companies in the Eurozone, including ASML, LVMH, and others. Since the dawn of the new millennium, the DAX index has surged by more than 180%, whereas the STOXX50 is only now approaching pre-2008 GFC levels. The DAX's relative outperformance becomes evident when looking at the regression channel of the ratio between these two indices. However, the prevailing narrative may be on the cusp of a significant shift. On a closer examination of the factors underpinning Germany's superior performance, it emerges that sector weightings and macroeconomic conditions have played pivotal roles. Notably, the DAX has consistently underweighted financials as compared to the STOXX50 index. Post-2008, the Eurozone's interest rates have witnessed a consistent downtrend. This period of extraordinarily loose financial conditions and low bond yields, largely a by-product of Quantitative Easing (QE), has favored technology and growth stocks. The main drivers are the availability of cheap capital and a stronger emphasis on growth potential over current valuations. Conversely, the same conditions have exerted considerable pressure on financials, as their earnings capabilities have been seriously compromised. This is precisely why the European banking sector has lagged considerably behind its US counterparts and has yet to recover to pre-GFC levels. This whole dynamics began to falter last year as inflationary pressures mounted, especially in European countries grappling with additional challenges, such as the Russian-Ukraine war and an energy crisis. The European Central Bank, following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, finally embarked on a journey to raise interest rates, leading to one of the fastest-paced interest rate increases in modern history. Furthermore, Germany's export sector is encountering headwinds as the global economy edges closer to a potential recession, triggered by the tightening measures undertaken by central banks. Demand for products such as automobiles is likely to dwindle, particularly from major trading partners like China and the US. On the other hand, a healthier, more normalized yield curve is finally offering some respite to European financial institutions. This shift could eventually curtail DAX's persistent outperformance compared to other European indices like STOXX50. From a technical perspective, the price action also implies an impending change. The DAX/STOXX50 ratio has arguably completed a Head-and-Shoulder top and is currently sitting on the lower bound of the regression channel. A breakout to the downside could potentially signal the end of a two-decade-long uptrend, leading to a significant reversal in relative performance between DAX and STOXX50. A hypothetical investor looking to express this view could consider establishing a short Micro DAX and long Micro STOXX50 spread at a notionally equivalent amount. The added advantage of this relative trade is that beta exposure is substantially reduced. For example, if a global recession causes most equity markets to decline, this relative trade could still benefit if the DAX falls more than the STOXX50. Do note that a spread-trading strategy may incur additional commission fees versus a traditional outright strategy. Hot tip: Phillip Nova is currently offering zero-commission trading of the EUREX Micro-DAX® Futures and Micro-EURO STOXX 50® Futures. Click here to learn more. To create a notionally equivalent DAX/STOXX50 spread, an investor might short 1 Micro DAX futures (EUR 1 per index point) and go long on 4 Micro STOXX50 futures (EUR 1 per index point). The notional amount of the Micro-DAX futures would approximately be 15,800 EUR. Meanwhile, the notional amount of the 3 STOXX50 futures would approximately be 3 x 4280 = 17,120 EUR. The margin required for each contract of Micro-DAX would be 1,588 EUR while the Micro-STOXX50 would be 380 EUR (as of 10 July 2023). Disclaimer: The contents of this Idea are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by inspirante
Dax40 Long turned down, but first support can be nearDax has been trading higher since October 2022 but five waves up from that low suggested that bulls are done for now and that correction is in play. In fact, we have seen a nice reversal down recently, through the trendline support on the 4h chart so the corrective phase is here, but with three waves down from the top, we may start observing some of the support for wave (C). An interesting level for a new price stabilization can be at 15300-15400 area.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by DaveBrascoFX
DAX: Short term buy opportunity.DAX is rebounding after a -4.60% decline that turned the 1D timeframe bearish (RSI = 42.197, MACD = -69.700, ADX = 37.228). Even though that decline hit the bottom of the long term Channel Up, we focus more on the short term where after similar declines in the past two months (both -4.30%), the price rebounded to at leastthe 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently we go short and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 15,930) which can connect with the 4H MA200 as well. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by InvestingScope
6
DAX hit the bottom of the long term Channel Up. Buy.DAX hit on Friday the bottom of the 8month Channel Up, just under Support (1), which was the low of April 5th. That is a long term buy opportunity and the price is treating it as such since it's already on two straight bullish candles. The previous Higher Lows was also priced within the MA100 (1d) and the bottom of the Channel Up. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price. 2. Buy if the price crosses under the Channel Up. Targets: 1. 16430 (Resistance 1). 2. 15150 (MA200 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) hit the Falling Support which made the Channel Up bottoms of December 16th and March 13th. However the price dropped some more after the RSI hit that price. Hence it is not unrealistic to expect 15150 and a MA200 (1d) test for the next long term buy. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:DE40Long
by TradingBrokersView
4
GER30, H4 | Potential bearish reversalWe're seeing price test a key overlap resistance at 15702 which also happens to line up with our 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A reversal from this breakout level could see prices drop all the way down to test our recent swing low at 15508 again. We're seeing price rise towards a major overlap resistance at 0.8552 which also coincides with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a shorter term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. It's worth noting that there's a fair bit of bearish momentum too wish the descending resistant line and the bearish ichimoku cloud pushing prices down. A drop from here could see pries drop to 0.8524. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
DAX Lower Low to come after this quick rebound. Sell.DAX is recovering today from yesterday's brutal break down but this should be a short lived reaction. The 1day RSI made a Double Bounce on a Falling Support, much like the one on March 13th. On that price action, after a short lived rebound that got rejected on the 1day MA50 and the 0.5 Fibonacci, the price resumed the downtrend and bottomed on the 1.5 Fibonacci level. Take advantage of this quick rebound for a better sell entry and target 15100, which happens to be also at the bottom of the long term Channel Up and the 1day MA200 (which is intact since November 10th). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by TheCryptagon
9
Will DAX continue to selloff?GER40 - 24h expiry The bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart is negative for sentiment. Short term bias has turned negative. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. We are trading at oversold extremes. We look for a temporary move higher. Previous support at 15750 now becomes resistance. We look to Sell at 15749 (stop at 15849) Our profit targets will be 15501 and 15451 Resistance: 15575 / 15750 / 15850 Support: 15492 / 15400 / 15300 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by OANDA