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✅ Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 23, 2023Key events: USA - Building Permits USA - S&P Global US Services PMI (Aug) USA - New Home Sales (Jul) USA - Crude Oil Inventories On Tuesday, global stock markets aimed for a rebound, yet this resurgence encountered a setback as benchmark Treasury yields surged to levels not witnessed in almost 16 years. Apprehensions regarding the prolonged existence of elevated interest rates contributed to the robust performance of the safe-haven dollar, which remained in proximity to its highest point in a span of 10 weeks. In the midst of US afternoon trading, the MSCI All Country stock index surrendered its earlier advances and settled without any significant change. This distancing from the 2-1/2 month low it had experienced on the preceding Friday underscored the ongoing market volatility. Among the prominent US indices, the S&P 500 saw a decrease of 0.23%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a decline of 0.46%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite Index managed a modest gain of 0.1%, displaying a degree of resilience amidst the broader market fluctuations. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart With keen anticipation, market participants are awaiting valuable insights into the trajectory of interest rates, which are expected to be shared by prominent central bank officials. Esteemed figures from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all set to convene at the annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, during the upcoming week. Analytical expectations at TD Securities suggest that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to exercise caution in providing explicit signals for September's actions. Instead, he might hint at the potential of sustaining elevated rates for an extended period, aiming to mitigate inflationary pressures effectively. In a welcome development, a surge of 0.7% in technology shares propelled pan-European stocks, thereby contributing to the upbeat performance of the broader European market. Nevertheless, the focus once more shifted to the realm of US Treasuries. The yield on the pivotal 10-year Treasury note made a formidable leap to 4.366%, reaching its highest point since 2007. This escalation translated to an almost 40 basis points increase for the month. Subsequently, the yield retraced slightly, settling at 4.318% after reaching its peak. This dynamic showcases the underlying volatility and heightened significance of bond markets in the current financial landscape. US 10-year Treasury daily chart The surge in yields, which exhibit an inverse relationship with bond prices, has been a consequence of unexpectedly positive economic news in the US. This turn of events prompted investors to recalibrate their expectations for future policy easing by the Federal Reserve over the coming year. These growing concerns, stemming from the potential for sustained elevated interest rates and apprehensions about China's economic deceleration, have recently subdued investor enthusiasm towards the stock market. However, this gloomy sentiment experienced a reversal on Tuesday, initiating a noteworthy rebound across stock markets. The present Treasury futures contracts now suggest a projection of 100 basis points (bps) in rate reductions by the Fed by the conclusion of 2024. This marks a reduction from the earlier projection of 130 bps, which was observed just a matter of weeks ago. Conversely, inflation expectations have displayed limited movement, resulting in a significant upsurge in "real" yields—yield values that incorporate inflation expectations. This development is poised to prompt investors to reconsider their appetite for risk-taking. The noteworthy upswing in European stock performance is primarily attributed to a robust 2% climb within the technology sector. This surge was predominantly propelled by upbeat sentiments surrounding Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the world's most valuable chipmaker. Investor optimism is particularly elevated ahead of Nvidia's impending quarterly earnings report, thereby generating enthusiasm within the technology sector and beyond. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The dollar index, which gauges the strength of the currency in relation to six significant developed-market counterparts, made a marginal advance, reaching 103.61. This level was just slightly below its recent 10-week peak of 103.68, attained on the preceding Friday. In contrast, the euro faced a 0.39% retreat, descending to $1.08535. EUR/USD daily chart China's yuan experienced a marginal retracement, settling at around 7.30 per dollar following indications of stability. Prior to this, state banks had undertaken interventions in the offshore forwards market to provide reinforcement to the yuan's valuation. USD/CNY daily chart
by FOREXN1
7
✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY AUGUST 22, 2023Key events: USA - Existing Home Sales (Jul) US Treasury yields scaled their highest point in a decade, while European equities rebounded from a six-week low. Simultaneously, the Nasdaq exhibited robust growth, surging over 1% on Monday. These market movements were all underpinned by the anticipation of the forthcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, slated for Friday. The trading session on Wall Street unveiled a mixed bag of results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 initially gained ground but eventually relinquished those early gains. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite, with its focus on technology, experienced a notable ascent. This surge was driven by the prevailing optimism surrounding upcoming earnings reports. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart Initially surging by over $1 per barrel, benchmark oil futures eventually closed lower due to dwindling expectations for Chinese demand. In the stock market realm, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) witnessed a notable upswing of more than 7%. This surge was propelled by investors capitalizing on a recent dip in the electric vehicle manufacturer's stock price, a movement fueled by the encouraging sentiments emanating from Wall Street. Baird, in particular, placed Tesla on its 'best ideas' list, underlining several favorable factors. These include the eagerly awaited launch of the Cybertruck, an increasing adoption of self-driving software, and a consistent growth trajectory within the energy sector. These potential positive forces hold the capacity to overshadow any concerns stemming from slightly softer margins as a result of recent price reductions. Tesla stock daily chart In the realm of currencies, the European single currency marked a 0.2% ascent, reaching a value of $1.0892. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of key trading partner currencies, exhibited a slight decline, settling at 103.35. EUR/USD daily chart Furthermore, the British pound ventured towards the upper edge of its established range, which spans from $1.26 to $1.28. However, the overall strength of the dollar thwarted a breakthrough. As a result, the pound retraced its steps to hover around $1.2690, engaging in a period of consolidation leading up to the weekend. As the new trading week commenced, the pound's movement found itself confined within a narrow scope, fluctuating between $1.2710 and $1.2750. This trading range closely aligns with the parameters set during the preceding Friday's trading. Notably, if the pound manages to conclude a session above the 20-day moving average, positioned at $1.2760—a feat not achieved since July 26—it might signify the potential for another endeavor to breach the upper threshold of the established range. GBP/USD daily chart Gold prices saw a modest increase on Tuesday, benefiting from a softened dollar that pulled back from its two-month highs. Nonetheless, concerns regarding the potential for higher US interest rates persisted, casting a lingering shadow over the outlook for the metal markets. XAU/USD daily chart Following a decline to a five-month low earlier this month, the price of gold exhibited indications of a rebound. However, despite these efforts, spot prices have encountered difficulties in reclaiming the significant threshold of $2,000 per ounce. As of now, a decisive breakthrough remains elusive, leaving the market in a state of anticipation.
by FOREXN1
13
US30: Dow Faces Resistance While Tech Bounce...Market Rollercoaster: Dow Faces Resistance While Tech Bounces Back In a week that has seen a whirlwind of market activity, Monday's trading session proved to be a mixed bag for investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, a stalwart of the stock market, grappled with downward pressure stemming from weaknesses in consumer staples and energy sectors. However, tech stocks, led by Nvidia, managed to stage an impressive rebound, lifting the Nasdaq and cushioning the market's overall performance. Against the backdrop of surging Treasury yields at 16-year highs, investors eagerly await signals on upcoming monetary policy decisions that could further shape the market landscape. The Dow closed Monday's session with a marginal loss of 0.1%, shedding 37 points. In contrast, the Nasdaq surged ahead, exhibiting a noteworthy 1.6% gain, while the S&P 500 managed to secure a 0.7% increase. To comprehend these market dynamics, let's delve into the details. Tech Resilience and Nvidia's Influence In a testament to the resilience of the technology sector, Monday saw a remarkable resurgence in tech stocks, primarily led by semiconductor giant Nvidia. This rebound helped offset the broader market's struggles, showcasing the sector's ability to pivot swiftly in the face of challenges. As technology continues to intertwine itself with various aspects of modern life, the tech sector's rebound not only highlights its economic importance but also underscores its role in driving market sentiment. Dow's Bearish Trend Amid Technical Indicators Taking a closer look at the technical side of things, the Dow Jones' performance lately paints a somewhat bearish picture. Analyzing the daily chart, a discernible bearish trend has emerged. One notable event was the formation of a double bottom pattern, accompanied by a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This technical setup implies that while the Dow faced two successive lows, the RSI indicated weakening selling momentum during the second low. This could suggest a potential reversal, yet the broader market conditions and external factors have proven to be formidable opponents. Treasury Yields and Monetary Policy Anticipation One of the most pivotal aspects of Monday's trading session was the surge in Treasury yields, soaring to heights not seen in over 16 years. These elevated yields have significant implications for the market as they can impact borrowing costs, influence investment decisions, and redirect capital flows. Investors are now anxiously awaiting insights into the upcoming monetary policy decisions. The uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate adjustments or changes in economic stimulus measures has added an extra layer of complexity to an already intricate market scenario. EUR/USD Dynamics Shifting our focus to the currency market, the EUR/USD pair showcased noteworthy dynamics. The euro exhibited increased strength, underlining its potential against the US dollar. This move could stem from a variety of factors including economic data releases, geopolitical events, or shifts in market sentiment. However, it's important to note that currency movements are often influenced by a multitude of factors, making predictions challenging. Closing Thoughts: Navigating Uncertainty As markets continue to evolve, investors find themselves navigating a sea of uncertainty. The contrast between the Dow's struggles and the tech sector's resurgence underscores the diverse array of factors influencing market movements. The interplay between consumer staples, energy, technology, and the broader economic landscape creates a complex puzzle for investors to decipher. In the coming days, as monetary policy clues emerge and market sentiment evolves, traders and investors alike will need to remain nimble and adaptive to stay ahead in this ever-changing financial landscape. TurnAround Point:34700 Our preference Short positions below 34700 with targets at 34170 & 34000 in extension.
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by FOREXN1
3
$DJI & $NDX very important levels (TSLA trade = fire)The TVC:DJI trade we did ( NASDAQ:TSLA was great) was nice. In & out. AMEX:UDOW gave back all gains TVC:NDQ holding better, NASDAQ:TQQQ bit higher (risk reward was good but not for holding longer term) Point is, NOT RISKING, not convinced downside's over. AMEX:DIA almost oversold & very close to a VERY IMPORTANT AREA. Will revisit risk soon, once there. This is also an important area for $QQQ. ATM both weaker, could be mid day reversal. We'll see.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
My Case For NO 1929 Style (Economic Collapse) + Super Bubble I see many many articles circulating the similarities of the 1929 "Super Bubble" and see almost all the information is very miss leading and not accurate at all. We can see the DJI compared to the SPY today is dangerously similar at face value. Enough for anyone with basics to be very nervous about this. Each cycle has a 1st bubble followed by a 2nd bubble then ending with a gigantic 3rd melt up. But the truth? we need to take the (CURRCIR) (Currency in Circulation) as a proxy for the US M2 / M3 for the early 1900s What we see is there was no debasement "Quantitative Easing" almost no new currency growth meaning it was all leverage based on air. Only after 1930s did we see currency growth. Fast forward to 1999-2023 We see even before Quantitative Easing (Currency in Circulation) started an uptrend in 2004 going parabolic after 2008. Meaning the "Super Bubble" people are betting shorting right now is completely based on false information. Yes they are all wrong so is most retail. 2023 Adjust the SPY/USM2 supply we see a resistance trend going back to 2002 being hit 5 times, this means the debasement is acceleration coming back stronger every time. There's a chance something insane will happen where markets will go parabolic almost triple or quadruple the 1929 "Super Bubble" This will begin when the FRED has to cut or hold rates. Reserve Banks forced to cut rates due to debt interest (government). (Global M2 by math will go parabolic) this will flow back into companies / growth stocks. Bond Yields there's a chance they will not lower and most of the money gets captured by hard asset / growth markets, this includes Bitcoin / Gold. My thought process here is for the final "Super Bubble" to form from all this debt interest and monetary easing we have to see a blow off top in the SPY/USM2 chart, and you can guess it if the SPY makes all time highs soon while the FRED is planning to cut rates you're going to have all the (Money Market Funds) capital flow back into the stock market, there's currently trillions in short term US bonds meaning anyone purchasing TLT expecting a play for Bond Yields to fall are going to get this very wrong too (unless YCC happens for US Bonds) So has the bubble busted? based on the math it has just begun we could be in the 1927 stage.
TVC:DJI
by FederalXBT
SPY - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term 🔹Support at 430 dollars, indicating a potential positive reaction as it rises to 477 or more. 🔹Technically positive for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:SPYLong
by wavepoint99
DJI - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term. 🔹Support level is around 34425, indicating good buying opportunities. 🔹Support at 34200, potentially indicating a POSITIVE reaction, but a break downwards through 34200 indicating a NEGATIVE signal. 🔹Technically positive for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
TVC:DJILong
by wavepoint99
Dow Jones Industrial Average Key MomentMACRO MONDAY Dow Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) is a price-weighted average of 20 key transportation stocks traded in the United States. The transportation sector acts as a leading indicator as it is further up the value chain ahead of the final products being sold by companies in Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI. For this reason, in some circumstances we can use the DJT as a helpful leading indicator for the direction of the economy Currently we are at a critical juncture on the DJT chart as we are testing significant resistance levels - The DTJ Index is at a critical diagonal and horizontal resistance level - A break through or rejection of the resistance will provide insight into the direction of the economy - There is a potential Head and Shoulders pattern that needs to be validated or invalidated which will be defined by the price reaction to the resistance zone. We can observe what happens over the coming weeks and how price reacts to the resistance. Can it break above it and turn it into support? When the DJI is climbing higher while the DJT is falling, it can be a signal of economic weakness ahead. A divergence of this sort means goods are not being transported at the same rate they are being produced, suggesting a decline in nationwide demand. This type of divergence occurred prior to the March 2020 crash with the DJT making its ATH in Dec 2020, thereafter the DJI made a new ATH in February 2020 whilst the DJT was closing almost 5% lower making a lower high. Those that study Dow Theory were key observers of the divergence and acted accordingly safeguarding their portfolios. Thankfully, at present there is no divergence. I will follow up in the comments with a chart showing that the DJI and the DJT are currently very closely aligned. Regardless paying close attention for a divergence could be very beneficial for your portfolio. I will certainly be on the look out and notify you in the event of. Thanks for reading and welcome to Macro Mondays PUKA
DJ:DJT
by PukaCharts
Michael Burry Bets $1.6B On Market Crash - Dow Jones Down 500+Michael Burry has placed a substantial $1.6 billion bet on an imminent stock market crash, representing 90% of his firm's assets. Known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 US housing market crash which netted him $100 million, Burry's recent move follows a 500-point drop in the Dow Jones in just two days. Despite this downturn, the Dow Jones has shown a positive trend in 2023, rising over 1,500 points. It's vital for investors to discern between short-lived market shifts and long-term trends. An in-depth analysis of the Dow Jones reveals a robust support level from December 2022 at $34,712, further reinforced by the daily 50 SMA just beneath. This strong support could be pivotal in pushing the index upwards, potentially eclipsing its January 2022 record high of $36,952.
TVC:DJI
by Sublime_Trading
DOW JONES First time near the 1D MA50 since July 10.Dow Jones is having the strongest pull-back since late May, so far still within the technical boundaries of the 5 month Channel Up. In doing so, it is only a few points before hitting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the July 10 Low. Despite that contact, the index hasn't closed a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 since June 01, which was at the start of that Channel Up Higher Low. As a result, we remain bullish aiming at a +6.10% rise to 36800, as long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50. If it fails we will take the small loss and quick sell instead towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 34200, which is exactly at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up. If that scenario is materialized, then we will only buy again after the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross, most likely (but not necessarily) closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case our buy target will be 36900, just below the All Time High of 2021. P.S. The 1D RSI already broke below its Higher Lows trend-line, potentially an early bearish warning. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
1
Stocks still struggling - $SPX copying late 2021?The risk in #stocks is still not to the upside. Took a trade before this rally, but that's it, a trade, already done too. Lower low today, still expect to be positive for the day, but until we get some sort of reversal, the risk is still to downside. TVC:DJI AMEX:UDOW NASDAQ:NDX is trying to find a bottom but here's not best place. Very light support. CBOE:SPX looks weakest of the 3. We could very well be doing what happened in late 2021. One last hurrah & then kaput.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DJI yearly CRASH or Sideways incoming??Looking at past times on DJI yearly time frame where Stoch rsi has crossed below the 80line it has resulted in major market crashes or dead sideways markets for long periods.. With how the economy is world wide at the moment id say things are about to get pre ugly for the markets. Monthly time frame also trying to set a Lower High.. Not feeling too optimistic Any thoughts on subject is welcome and would love to hear others opinions on the current state
TVC:DJI
by Wen2TradeOfficial
DOW JONES The Inverse Head & Shoulders no-one is talking about.The Dow Jones (DJI) index remains within its 5 month Channel Up pattern that started in mid March and recently hit its top. What the majority of the market is missing is a stronger pattern on the wider 1W time-frame. This long-term chart shows that an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern priced its Head (bottom) when the Channel Up started and completed the Right Shoulder on the first week of July. As a result, the aggressive 3 week rally that followed is a natural consequence of the completion of that pattern, similar to the October - November 2022 rally that led to the start of the IH&S. Such patterns can technically target as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, which sits just above the 36975 All Time High. As the 1W RSI is bounce on a Pivot level (formerly a Resistance), we have more reasons to continue to be bullish in this market and target first the 35900 Resistance and ultimately the ATH at 36975, potentially all within the boundaries of the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
12
DIA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Achieved target at 351 after breaking Rectangle formation. 🔹Supports 342 in NEGATIVE reaction. 🔹RSI curve shows rising trend, supporting positive trend. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
AMEX:DIALong
by wavepoint99