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$NDX $SPX $DJI forming ominous patternAs we mentioned yesterday, the TVC:NDQ is poised for a big move some time this month. After posting that, noticed this pattern. Was busy so didn't write it up. Was out all day celebrating daughter & nephew's bday🎉 Do you see it on the DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX as well? We bring up the Head & Shoulder Pattern every so often. It signifies tops. HOWEVER, this pattern needs the confirmation of breaking the neckline (bottom line - support), especially with volume. TVC:RUT stays in channel the entire time #stocks NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA CBOE:SPX AMEX:IWM
NASDAQ:NDX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 08, 2023Key events: Japan - GDP (QoQ) (Q2) Canada - Employment Change (Aug) Canada - Unemployment Rate (Aug) On Thursday, the global stock markets faced widespread declines, with notable losses observed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. These drops were primarily attributed to the performance of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Simultaneously, the US dollar strengthened following the release of US jobless claims data that fell short of expectations. Remarkably, initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased to 216,000 in the week ending on September 2nd, a drop from the revised figure of 229,000 from the previous week. These numbers marked the lowest weekly claims since February. Furthermore, a separate report indicated that US worker productivity in the second quarter did not display the vigor initially reported. Consistently, recent data bolsters the notion that the US economy continues to demonstrate resilience, potentially leading to an extended period of elevated US interest rates. In a surprising turn of events, Apple witnessed a staggering loss of approximately $200 billion in market capitalization over a mere two days. This substantial decline was attributed to reports suggesting that China is imposing restrictions on the use of iPhones by state employees. Apple stock daily chart This setback had a cascading effect on the broader US technology sector, leading to a decline in its overall performance. At the same time, shares of numerous significant Apple suppliers located in Asia also witnessed declines during Friday's trading. It's worth noting that China represents a substantial market for Apple, accounting for nearly a fifth of the company's total revenue. Additionally, both Apple and its suppliers play a crucial role in providing employment to thousands of workers in the region. This development comes just ahead of a highly anticipated Apple event scheduled for next week. During this event, the tech giant, valued at an impressive $2.78 trillion, is expected to unveil its new iPhone 15 lineup alongside innovative smartwatches. In the broader market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a modest gain of 57.54 points, equivalent to a 0.17% increase, reaching a level of 34,500.73. Conversely, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of 14.34 points, representing a 0.32% decrease, settling at 4,451.14. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite registered a more substantial drop of 123.64 points, equivalent to a 0.89% decrease, concluding the day at 13,748.83. NASDAQ Index daily chart S&P500 Index daily chart DJI Index daily chart In addition to tracking market dynamics, investors also paid close attention to remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams. He raised an intriguing question about whether monetary policy has reached a juncture where it could be considered adequately restrictive to bring about economic equilibrium. A recent Reuters poll of forex strategists underlines that the strength of the dollar is expected to pose challenges for most major currencies as the year nears its end. The enduring appeal of the US currency has indeed presented hurdles for other currencies in the global marketplace. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Throughout this week, the euro has witnessed a 0.5% decrease and has held steady at $1.0715 during the Asian trading session. Investors are presently evaluating the likelihood that the European Central Bank will opt for a status quo approach rather than moving forward with an interest rate hike in the upcoming week. EUR/USD daily chart On another front, the Japanese yen has descended to fresh lows, levels not witnessed in a span of ten months, with its current trading rate at 147.19 yen per dollar. The currency is inching ever closer to the critical 150 mark, a threshold where traders believe there's a substantial likelihood of government intervention to offer support and restore stability to the currency. USD/JPY H12 chart
by FOREXN1
16
Dow Jones on a continuous and strong uptrend in 2023Raising inclination trend has confirmed on the Dow Jones. What this means is that the rising trend is going up at a higher degree. A normal trend is around 45 degrees. A stronger trend is 60 degrees. and once it starts rallying above 60 degrees this is where GREED kicks in and you should prepare for downside. Also there is a strong Rising Channel which I'm sure countless range traders are loving at the moment as well as Trend traders. Price>200 RSI>50 Target 37,000
DJ:DJILong
by Timonrosso
1
SPY TARGET 807 Enjoy The Repricing Jerome. Crisis 24 ignite. CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -142.1K? USM2 Barely able to contract the supply under 20M? Reserve Banks At Breaking Point - FORCED to stop hikes > lowering soon Money Market Funds 5.693T will look to exit UST's as momentum in the PMI picks up. Look familiar? Only this time we have global debasement where China / Japan will be forced to QE trillions to backstop their debt. All pointing to a chaotic melt up / readjustment of the US markets. The problem with printing trillions to prevent a crisis is that money then weaves itself into the fabric of the problem you tried to control. You CANNOT remove this capital used to plug the hole in the sinking ship. This market looks primed to turn and go straight full throttle vertical. Crisis 19 avoided Crisis 24 ignite.
AMEX:SPYLong
by FederalXBT
NDQ | Hidden in plain sight...This is a period of recession, a period when hands change. Last becomes first and first becomes last. Curiously, if you mix and match the main indices, you will get bored of the same shape appearing over and over again. They all appear in the same period. This stuff is hidden in plain sight... NDQ vs DJI SPX vs NYA NDQ vs RUI RUI vs NYA RUA vs DJI This one is full of small HnS. A little rough but okay. And an extra speculation: DJI vs SPX Question: Where do all these HnS lead to? Who is the final recipient? Since all these charts are comparative to one another. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
6
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 01, 2023Key events: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) USA - Unemployment Rate (Aug) USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug) As August drew to a close, US equities continued their upward momentum, driven by the excitement surrounding the forthcoming employment report for the same month. Maintaining a streak of four consecutive positive sessions, Wall Street's major indices wrapped up Wednesday with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which represents established companies, inched up by 0.1%. Simultaneously, the broad-based S&P 500 recorded a 0.4% increase, while the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite enjoyed a 0.5% ascent. NASDAQ index daily chart SPX index daily chart DJI index daily chart Nonetheless, it's important to highlight that despite recent gains, these major benchmarks are still set to end the month with declines. In August, both the DJI and Nasdaq Composite recorded approximately 2% declines, while the S&P 500 saw a decrease of 1.4%. Recent economic indicators, including a second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) that fell short of expectations and core inflation data released on Thursday, have injected optimism into investors. This optimism arises from the possibility that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its series of interest rate hikes. In July, core inflation, as predicted, rose compared to June on an annualized basis. Despite this increase, the figures remained below the elevated levels seen in the previous year. The Federal Reserve, which has emphasized its data-driven approach to interest rate decisions, could interpret these reports as indications that their previous actions are starting to yield results. While their goal is to keep inflation in check with an annual growth rate of 2%, the central bank might opt to postpone a rate hike during its September meeting. Market futures largely reflect expectations of such a pause, with certain futures traders assigning probabilities to a 0.25% increase in November, effectively concluding the year. The forthcoming jobs report on Friday stands as another critical factor in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming month. Recent data has indicated that job openings this week were lower than anticipated. Furthermore, the jobs report is expected to reveal a slower rate of job creation compared to previous months. The Federal Reserve has been actively monitoring indicators that suggest the tight labor market is gradually easing, a development that would help alleviate inflationary pressures. Analysts anticipate the economy added 170,000 jobs last month, down from the 187,000 reported the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.5%. US nonfarm payroll Additionally, today also brings the release of the ISM manufacturing index, which is expected to show a reading of 47, an improvement from the previous reading of 46.4. In other news, Huw Pill, an economist at the Bank of England, has made an announcement that goes against market expectations. He intends to advocate for maintaining rates at 5.25% for an extended period, contrary to the market's anticipation of a 50 basis point increase to 5.75%. This statement was reported by the Financial Times. Pill expressed his support for this steadfast approach, citing its potential to ensure financial stability, gradually ease the impact on the economy, and effectively transmit higher rates into two- and five-year fixed-rate mortgages, which are commonly used lending instruments for property transactions in the UK. He made these remarks during a conference in South Africa. UK interest rate The situation seems to be unfolding without significant disruptions. Central banks worldwide are echoing similar sentiments, emphasizing their unwavering commitment to combatting inflation, which implies a prolonged period of higher interest rates, but not necessarily a constant upward trajectory. The US Dollar demonstrated strength against all currencies except the Japanese Yen. Recent data on unemployment benefits in the US showed a decrease to 228,000, surpassing median forecasts that had anticipated 236,000. USD/JPY daily chart This decline represented the lowest reading seen in the past four weeks. The Euro (EUR/USD) broke its three-day upward streak, declining to 1.0840 from the previous level of 1.0880. This shift in direction coincided with the release of the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting minutes, which revealed concerns about inflation and a less optimistic growth outlook. Conversely, the British Pound (GBP/USD) strengthened against the US Dollar, reaching 1.2670, an increase from the previous rate of 1.2645. EUR/USD daily chart GBP/USD daily chart
by FOREXN1
4
DOW JONES sets course for the All Time High in the next 2 monthsDow Jones (DJI) held its 1D MA100 as Support and as projected on our analysis last week (see chart below), it formed a Higher Low on the 5-month Channel Up and rebounded: We now move to the 1W time-frame where this week's 1W candle is so far the strongest since July 17 and already recovered the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). After completing the standard -4.70% correction to the Channel's bottom, the norm within this pattern is to first post a +6.15% rise and ultimately complete the Higher High with a +9.00%. As a result, our short-term target is 36100 (+6.15%) and by the end of October 36960 (+9.00%), which is the All Time High since January 2022! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
4
✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY AUGUST 29, 2023Key events: USA - CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) USA - JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) On Monday, Wall Street wrapped up the day with a positive tone, propelled by notable gains in companies like 3M and Goldman Sachs. This uptick came just ahead of the anticipated release of significant inflation and jobs data later in the week. The forthcoming data carries the potential to offer valuable insights into the Federal Reserve's future course of action regarding interest rates. Particularly, 3M saw a substantial surge of 5.2% in its stock value. This surge was triggered by reports suggesting that the conglomerate has tentatively reached an agreement to resolve over 300,000 lawsuits linked to the sale of faulty combat earplugs to the US military. The reported settlement amount is said to surpass $5.5 billion. 3M stock daily chart All three major stock indices exhibited upward momentum as investors digested the comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last Friday. These statements highlighted the prudent stance adopted by Powell and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve in their handling of adjustments to monetary policy. Their objective is to effectively address the escalation in prices while avoiding any disruptive repercussions on the overall economy. NASDAQ index daily chart SPX index daily chart DJI index daily chart According to the CME's Fed Watch Tool, there is an approximately 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain borrowing costs within the range of 5.25% to 5.50% in its upcoming September meeting. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 0.25 percentage point rate increase during the November gathering stands just below 50%. This marks an increase from the previous week's probability of around 35%. The imminent release of the personal consumption expenditure index, which is the preferred gauge of price growth for the Fed, on Thursday, will offer the central bank an occasion to evaluate the direction of inflation. US Effective Federal Funds Rate Furthermore, policymakers will meticulously scrutinize the nonfarm payrolls report for August, which is slated for release on Friday. According to economists' projections, there is an estimated addition of 170,000 jobs in the US during the month, indicating a decline from the 187,000 positions added in July. Concurrently, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%. Such an outcome might imply that the Fed's succession of rate hikes could be influencing employers' appetite for labor, even as the overall job market maintains its tight characteristics. While the US Dollar (USD) displayed a relative lack of strength against most G10 currencies, its behavior took a divergent path when compared to the Japanese Yen (JPY). In this context, the JPY's movement was swayed by the prevailing risk-on sentiment within the trading landscape. This sentiment was further influenced by the elevated short-term yields observed in US Treasury bonds. USD/JPY 8H chart Out of the myriad of currencies, the Australian Dollar (AUD) emerged as the leader in terms of making strides against the USD. The AUD's substantial strengthening can be ascribed to a convergence of multiple factors. Among these factors, one notable contributor was the affirmative measures undertaken by Chinese authorities to bolster their domestic equity market. Moreover, the AUD's performance was further boosted by robust retail sales data originating from Australia. The intricate interaction of these favorable circumstances coalesced to result in a noteworthy uptick in the Australian Dollar's value within the currency markets. AUD/USD 8H chart During the entirety of August, the EUR/USD currency pair has been entangled in the repercussions of a resurgent USD. Concurrent with the overarching shifts of the USD against diverse currencies, a consistent flow of unfavorable news related to the Euro (EUR) has played a substantial role in shaping this evolving trend. EUR/USD daily chart Of particular significance is the ongoing downward trend in economic indicators originating from the Eurozone. This trend has exacerbated concerns about the path of the region's predominant economy, Germany, which is experiencing a rapid decline. This deterioration has prompted investors to reconsider their expectations regarding future interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB). As a result, the prevailing sentiment has shifted, with expectations of any imminent rate hikes now being subdued.
by FOREXN1
5
$DJI looking good but OMINOUS longer term pattern emergesGood Morning! Since the call on DJ:DJI , it has been up & adding some more today. Within 2 weeks AMEX:DIA is going to break down OR it will continue it's longer term up trend. Bulls like this current action. HOWEVER, there is an ominous pattern forming on longer term charts. A Rising Wedge pattern tends to be BEARISH. Not coincidental that the peak is very close to the all time highs on $DJI. (Not shown here, pls see profile for more info) Monthly AMEX:DIA has been trending inside it PERFECTLY! It's going 2b an interesting end of year Coincidentally, the pattern resolves in December.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Market Recoveries: be Wary of DXYStock and Crypto markets should be aware that, while DXY appears to be in a free fall lending fuel for the recoveries we've been seeing across markets, it could yet turn back up - thus greatly shortening the fuel for these recoveries. Scenarios: - Very Short Recovery across markets -- DXY turns up here somewhere between the middle of the weekly or monthly middle of the W pattern shown on the weekly chart above - Short but Stronger Recovery across markets - DXY still turns up in the same area as above, but it spends a good bit of time hanging out here before moving up towards 118 - Extended Recovery across markets - DXY falls and stays below the red box and continues down
TVC:DXY
by dudebruhwhoa
4
DOW JONES Buy opportunity after strongest correction since May.Dow Jones (DJI) is consolidating under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 5th straight day and is doing so near the bottom of the 5-month just above the 1D MA50 (green trend-line). The latter has been intact since June 02, so technically we are at a very strong Support zone. In fact August's decline so far has been the strongest technical correction since May. The lower buy confirmation will come after the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, but you can also take the break-out buy signal if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. In any case, our bullish target is 36300, which would represent a +6.13% rise, the minimum rise % since the Channel Up started on March 15. If however the 1D candle closes below the 1D MA100, we will take a quick sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 33800. Upon successful hitting of the target, we will add the 2nd buy position and use it for a longer term target at 36900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
✅ Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 23, 2023Key events: USA - Building Permits USA - S&P Global US Services PMI (Aug) USA - New Home Sales (Jul) USA - Crude Oil Inventories On Tuesday, global stock markets aimed for a rebound, yet this resurgence encountered a setback as benchmark Treasury yields surged to levels not witnessed in almost 16 years. Apprehensions regarding the prolonged existence of elevated interest rates contributed to the robust performance of the safe-haven dollar, which remained in proximity to its highest point in a span of 10 weeks. In the midst of US afternoon trading, the MSCI All Country stock index surrendered its earlier advances and settled without any significant change. This distancing from the 2-1/2 month low it had experienced on the preceding Friday underscored the ongoing market volatility. Among the prominent US indices, the S&P 500 saw a decrease of 0.23%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced a decline of 0.46%. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite Index managed a modest gain of 0.1%, displaying a degree of resilience amidst the broader market fluctuations. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart With keen anticipation, market participants are awaiting valuable insights into the trajectory of interest rates, which are expected to be shared by prominent central bank officials. Esteemed figures from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all set to convene at the annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, during the upcoming week. Analytical expectations at TD Securities suggest that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to exercise caution in providing explicit signals for September's actions. Instead, he might hint at the potential of sustaining elevated rates for an extended period, aiming to mitigate inflationary pressures effectively. In a welcome development, a surge of 0.7% in technology shares propelled pan-European stocks, thereby contributing to the upbeat performance of the broader European market. Nevertheless, the focus once more shifted to the realm of US Treasuries. The yield on the pivotal 10-year Treasury note made a formidable leap to 4.366%, reaching its highest point since 2007. This escalation translated to an almost 40 basis points increase for the month. Subsequently, the yield retraced slightly, settling at 4.318% after reaching its peak. This dynamic showcases the underlying volatility and heightened significance of bond markets in the current financial landscape. US 10-year Treasury daily chart The surge in yields, which exhibit an inverse relationship with bond prices, has been a consequence of unexpectedly positive economic news in the US. This turn of events prompted investors to recalibrate their expectations for future policy easing by the Federal Reserve over the coming year. These growing concerns, stemming from the potential for sustained elevated interest rates and apprehensions about China's economic deceleration, have recently subdued investor enthusiasm towards the stock market. However, this gloomy sentiment experienced a reversal on Tuesday, initiating a noteworthy rebound across stock markets. The present Treasury futures contracts now suggest a projection of 100 basis points (bps) in rate reductions by the Fed by the conclusion of 2024. This marks a reduction from the earlier projection of 130 bps, which was observed just a matter of weeks ago. Conversely, inflation expectations have displayed limited movement, resulting in a significant upsurge in "real" yields—yield values that incorporate inflation expectations. This development is poised to prompt investors to reconsider their appetite for risk-taking. The noteworthy upswing in European stock performance is primarily attributed to a robust 2% climb within the technology sector. This surge was predominantly propelled by upbeat sentiments surrounding Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the world's most valuable chipmaker. Investor optimism is particularly elevated ahead of Nvidia's impending quarterly earnings report, thereby generating enthusiasm within the technology sector and beyond. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The dollar index, which gauges the strength of the currency in relation to six significant developed-market counterparts, made a marginal advance, reaching 103.61. This level was just slightly below its recent 10-week peak of 103.68, attained on the preceding Friday. In contrast, the euro faced a 0.39% retreat, descending to $1.08535. EUR/USD daily chart China's yuan experienced a marginal retracement, settling at around 7.30 per dollar following indications of stability. Prior to this, state banks had undertaken interventions in the offshore forwards market to provide reinforcement to the yuan's valuation. USD/CNY daily chart
by FOREXN1
7
✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY AUGUST 22, 2023Key events: USA - Existing Home Sales (Jul) US Treasury yields scaled their highest point in a decade, while European equities rebounded from a six-week low. Simultaneously, the Nasdaq exhibited robust growth, surging over 1% on Monday. These market movements were all underpinned by the anticipation of the forthcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, slated for Friday. The trading session on Wall Street unveiled a mixed bag of results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 initially gained ground but eventually relinquished those early gains. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite, with its focus on technology, experienced a notable ascent. This surge was driven by the prevailing optimism surrounding upcoming earnings reports. NASDAQ indices daily chart DJI indices daily chart Initially surging by over $1 per barrel, benchmark oil futures eventually closed lower due to dwindling expectations for Chinese demand. In the stock market realm, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) witnessed a notable upswing of more than 7%. This surge was propelled by investors capitalizing on a recent dip in the electric vehicle manufacturer's stock price, a movement fueled by the encouraging sentiments emanating from Wall Street. Baird, in particular, placed Tesla on its 'best ideas' list, underlining several favorable factors. These include the eagerly awaited launch of the Cybertruck, an increasing adoption of self-driving software, and a consistent growth trajectory within the energy sector. These potential positive forces hold the capacity to overshadow any concerns stemming from slightly softer margins as a result of recent price reductions. Tesla stock daily chart In the realm of currencies, the European single currency marked a 0.2% ascent, reaching a value of $1.0892. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of key trading partner currencies, exhibited a slight decline, settling at 103.35. EUR/USD daily chart Furthermore, the British pound ventured towards the upper edge of its established range, which spans from $1.26 to $1.28. However, the overall strength of the dollar thwarted a breakthrough. As a result, the pound retraced its steps to hover around $1.2690, engaging in a period of consolidation leading up to the weekend. As the new trading week commenced, the pound's movement found itself confined within a narrow scope, fluctuating between $1.2710 and $1.2750. This trading range closely aligns with the parameters set during the preceding Friday's trading. Notably, if the pound manages to conclude a session above the 20-day moving average, positioned at $1.2760—a feat not achieved since July 26—it might signify the potential for another endeavor to breach the upper threshold of the established range. GBP/USD daily chart Gold prices saw a modest increase on Tuesday, benefiting from a softened dollar that pulled back from its two-month highs. Nonetheless, concerns regarding the potential for higher US interest rates persisted, casting a lingering shadow over the outlook for the metal markets. XAU/USD daily chart Following a decline to a five-month low earlier this month, the price of gold exhibited indications of a rebound. However, despite these efforts, spot prices have encountered difficulties in reclaiming the significant threshold of $2,000 per ounce. As of now, a decisive breakthrough remains elusive, leaving the market in a state of anticipation.
by FOREXN1
13