DJI - The Stock Market Enters Wave 5: Blow-Off Top Then CRASH!Although the sentiment is incredibly bearish and the world expects the stock market to underperform, it has left thin order books, low liquidity and volume, and an overly emotional state of the market. Considering how certain most analysts, traders, and investors are that a recession is already here, most are in cash, short, or sidelined. This state of the market will lead to FOMO and a rapid chase of prices higher in the most emotional and hated rally ever. It happens fast, sucking in people very late into the wave, and ultimately ends faster than they are prepared for. Many people will take on debt to buy more very close to the top. Just as sentiment switches back to ultra bullish, everyone will be blind enough for the real recession and markets will collapse. This is really how Elliott Wave works - it is a socio-economic phenomenon based on investor sentiment and human behavior.
I'm publishing to be able to look back and see if this trajectory was correct at all.
D-DJI
Meta and Tesla Priced richly again, dow ignored, fear lowForward growth seems to be priced back into these hot high volume in the news stocks. Both Tesla and Facebook/meta have almost doubled in the last month.
Dividend dow is not shunned and ignored as hot stocks are back in style.
Fear in vix and junk bonds is low.
Bunch of copy paste quotes on Fed Meeting, $DJI $NDX GREAT DAY!Apologize for the LATE post on this
We posted this elsewhere, documented, and bringing it here
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Yesterday
So, #fed tomorrow.......
We get 25, likely rally and fade next day or few days later
We get 50, likely sell off decently & then rally
This could reverse in one day or take week or more
#FederalReserve meeting
#stocks #crypto #inflation
Done for today :) Good day overall
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Early Today, after announcement-
Was at least expecting a pop first before the fall
Interesting day today
Maybe we get the fall and then the rally...
However how we end the day, the next day tends to be a reverse of some sort
$DJI $NDX $SPX
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After-
For a second we though we were going to get put (sold a bunch of put options when $DJI was off 340 points and $NDX was closer to day lows) a ton of #stock ROFL
Limits being filled, not being greedy
#crypto green
US #Dollar $DXY hitting lows (did say HISTORICALLY doesn't hold)
-
We've been cautious #BULL for a bit & we need 2b weary of EUPHORIA
We're watching for that, IMPORTANT!
$VIX @ bottom trend (we'll know VERY SOON what's up)
#yield falling $TNX, 2yr not as much, hmmm
#stocks huge turnaround
#crypto as well
What about volume? Soon
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$NDX & $DJI BUY volume is still there but it's lowering
#DJI looking GOOD atm
$NDX NO slouch testing downtrend soon
#markets ARE IRRATIONAL
Look at volume, patterns & trend!!!
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Recent
Awesome #stock day today! Good for the week!
Raised cash again for trading
Have some longs still
$DOW $META (taking some off here), $KHC $INTC $ATVI & some others BUT aggressive TRADING still 1/3 in bonds, expire soon, & cash for tomorrow & other days
Done for day &👀direction
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Look at $RUT $IWM
RISK is ON ON ON
Has been on
Volume is ok
#stocks have been looking ok
$DJI breaking symmetrical = continuation pattern
Staying cautious BULL!
More haters of rally = GOOD!
Keep eye on EUPHORIA!
Dowjones Potential upsides ahead of today's FOMCHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 33800 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
Trade safe, Joe.
YOU need to see this now - THE DANGER LINEThis is a wave trend indicator on the S&P 500 index that is based on relative strength with straightforward oversold or overbought conditions. Relative strength is a measure of momentum where both speed (time) and magnitude (change) is measured and plotted with simple or weighted moving averages.
What you are seeing above is a snapshot of a RSI/wave trend of the S&P 500 index based on monthly candles. Understand that it takes the measure of a month of time just to get a single plot of data and this particular snapshot represents over two decades. But right before your eyes are very clear trends. The data is just pure and simple math and math does not lie. Ignore the news. Follow price, volume, momentum.. just follow the data.
I will try not to state my opinion too much.. and just follow the data. What I see on the chart is concerning. If this decline continues over the next month or two, momentum is going to accelerate and volatility go up while the market basically crashes... i.e. if the DANGER LINE is breached. I found it odd that volatility (VIX) has been quite docile considering the amount of downside we've seen in the indices this year. That is concerning. It is entirely possible that the September thru November monthly candles are positive and this trend finds support.. and the danger line is not breached. On the flipside, this decent can continue and really pick up speed and we see a 2000-2003 correction or 2007-2009.
Here is an overlay snapshot with those corrections to similar scale. That is what could happen if the current trend continues.. we could see 12-24 months of recession and very steep drops and sharp bearish reversals. Be careful, manage risk, consider hedging certain positions, and know that you DO NOT know what is going to happen.
Potential pullback here on US30/US500No rocket science just my observation. I think price comes back down to 33800 level before days end. That may be the resting point before FOMC tomorrow
DOW JONES A mix of patterns ahead of the Fed!The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has made a strong medium-term rise since our buy signal 12 days ago:
Still within the High Volatility region, hence neutral long-term, the price is rising today after finding Support within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). The medium-term pattern is a Triangle, the short-term a Channel Up.
However the price needs to break above the 2 day Channel Down (red) in order to test the top of the Triangle and if broken extend the Channel Up into the medium-term to test the 34910 December High.
A break below the Channel Up, should extend the red Channel Down towards the bottom of the Triangle again.
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Dow Jones Harmonic pattern - DJ30 Potential Bearish Bat CFDHi there,
Short note from me - This week could be crucial for the next quarter especcialy we have 3 decisions about interest rates: FED, ECB and BOE. But today i want to show you potential bearish bat harmonic pattern what I found on DJI30, which means we are going to test some lower price levels.
My scenario for FED on wednesday:
- rise interest rate by 50 bps - we all going down,
- 25 bps, but- market going down until wednesday: we are going up in short term,
- 25 bps, but- market going up: short, sell the news,
- 0 bps (unlikely), going up,
Outside this I'm still more bearish in particular that the downside formation was formed.
S&P Breakout or Fakeout?S&P broke above resistance trend line of the down channel yesterday. Is this a breakout with more upside or a fakeout? Trading rules say we should look for a test of the trend line before confirmation of the breakout. Market really wants to put 2022 in the rearview mirror, but let's see what happens.
DJI Potential for Bullish Rise towards previous swing highLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 33704.98, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32948.93, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34712.28, where the previous swing high is.
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Deflation before inflation. They will force deflationary crash and steal all your tangible assets like cars and houses. After that they will force inflation so the assets they steal from you raises in price. Just look at these trend lines. They lined up perfectly. Please tell me HISTORY DOESN'T MATTER.
DOW JONES Time to test the December 13 High.Dow Jones (DJI) held the dashed Higher Lows trend-line and rebounded, as we outlined on our last week analysis:
That was on the 4H time-frame, now we zoom out to 1D where the index broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but after last weeks 34,390 rejection, it remains within the High Volatility region.
As long as the 1D candles close above the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, we are expecting not just a re-test of the 34300 August 16 High but also a direct hit on the 34910 December 13 High. The reason is that, as we mentioned last week, the current price action based on RSI terms, looks very similar to that of October 03 - 21.
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worst months for stock market until febI can feel the super optimism from the NYSE market since friday.
yes the powerful volume showed from the market and the last candle and weekly made it would go back to upside from now on.
But we need to gear up the pessimistic view again.
corporations earning seasons are coming soon, and mostly they will bring the worst momentum and results.
last week's Friday job's income report was optimistic, but this can be changed with CPI data on thursday morning.
also the FED chairman Powell's speech you need to be aware on tuesday morning.
I personally belive that the short term early year bullish effect has finished now.
$NDX looks better than $DJI, but it's no slouchPls see profile for more info
We limit data
as it's copy paste
We're cautiously bull $DJI, bit more on $NDX
But there's reasons:
#ECONOMY = TRASH
Tons of good lost jobs
Unemployment low but most BAD jobs & multiple jobs
#DJI RSI negative divergence (slight weakening)
#NDX RSI looks good & many green candles
$DIA $QQQ #QQQ #Stocks