Bullish wild card Morning folks,
Well, technical picture, no doubts, stands bearish. We've warned you about it within recent few weeks, and since the beginning of 2022 in a scale of monthly and weekly time frames. Now, if we wouldn't have CPI and Fed I would call for short entry. But, due coming important data we need to wait and get more confirmation.
At the same time, CPI and Fed could provide the "wild card" if CPI will be weak and Fed will be dovish. In this case all markets across the board could show short-term action, and it could be more or less strong. That's why we show you all scenarios that potentially you could follow, depending on your view.
First is a bullish "wild card' Scenario. You could consider this butterfly with placing stop just under its lows. Target might be either 17.7, or even XOP target around 18.2K. Features of this trade are - low chances on success, but low potential loss and huge reward if "wild card" will be given.
Second is bears - you need to keep an eye on 16.5-16.6K support and its downside break. Once it will happen, it is possible to consider short entry. Theoretically you could use Stop "Sell" entry order somewhere under 16.5K.
Finally, you could combine both scenarios.... if you brave enough ;)
Daily Charts
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has been moving in an uptrend channel for almost twenty days, which we have marked with blue lines.
It is now worth checking what supports we should consider in the coming hours or days and as you can see the first support is $17070, if the support is broken then the next support is $16977, $16885 and $16750.
Now let's go from the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance that the price has to overcome and positively test is $17221, if you manage to break it the next resistance will be $17323, $17412 and $17491.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that in the 4-hour interval, the energy begins to gain strength, the MACD indicator indicates that we have entered a local downtrend, while the RSI shows that we are quite high and we should consider hedging the position in case of a correction.
Daily review of BTC interval 4HHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving above the local uptrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $17132, if the support is broken then the next support is $17080, $16997 and $16897.
Now let's move to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $17217, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $17319, $17403 and $17480.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that almost all energy has been used in the 4-hour interval, the MACD indicator indicates that we are maintaining a local uptrend, and the RSI is very high, which may indicate a price correction.
Price Action - (Defined Low)We have a defined low that comes in at 681.58
The previous low @ 772.95 was traded below. The sell stops that were protecting those long positions were traded into with this new low (681.51)
After this new low was created price action impulsively moved away in bullish momentum, to do what?....
Hit the buy stops that were created @ the previous short term high @ (1031.95)
That short term high (1031.95) was traded through eventually (which is highlighted with the shaded circle) and price starts trading higher
I'll leave the purple shaded area open for comment, let me know if you see the clues the market left behind!
Thank You
16.5-16.6K area is vitalMorning folks,
BTC looks weak. Maybe coming PPI numbers tomorrow and CPI + Fed on Tue could support market in short-term, but data release can't change the fundamental background that is vitally hurt by FTX tragedy. Confidence in crypto market is lost now.
Speaking about our technical setup - market has failed to stay above 17060 level that was crucial for the bulls, we've discussed it last time. Now we see signs of weakness and think that there are few chances on upside continuation. In fact, if 16.5-16.6K level will be broken - price starts action back to 15.5K lows first and even lower in longer perspective.
So, if you would like to take the short position - watch for downside breakout of this level. We do not see good context for long entry now.
AUDUSD a move to the 0.66?🦐AUDUSD on the 4h chart is trading inside an ascending channel.
The market is now testing the lower trendline and a possible break can be expected during this week.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for a potential break of the dynamic support and IF the price satisfy the condition i will apply a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
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Follow the Shrimp
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger
17.6-17.7 K seems the ceil nowMorning folks,
So, let's keep going with our reverse H&S and its targets. As we've said, the first one was hit last week. Once OP is done, BTC has formed minor triangle consolidation which is broken up now. Next H&S target is XOP around 18.15K. But the problem is 17.5-17.7K strong resistance area, that includes Fib level and previous daily lows.
As you know we're skeptic on any upside action on BTC and have not taken longs since the beginning of 2022. And we're not going to do it now, although it could climb a bit more. Mostly we're considering 17.6-18.15K area as potential for selling. Before major reversal happens, all markets could climb a bit higher - EUR (to 1.0595-1.0610), Gold (to ~1825) but everywhere, the background for reversal is growing. So the same on BTC.
If you still would like to buy - you could consider 17.15K Fib support and keep an eye on 16.95K area - market should not break it down. If it will - the bullish party probably is over.
18-18.2KMorning folks,
So, our 1H H&S pattern that we've discussed last time is started well. In fact, as all other markets, BTC has got the same boost from J. Powell. Since this is external factor, hardly it will last too long. But positive NFP numbers should let BTC to complete 18-18.2K extended AB-CD target.
Once this will be completed, BTC hits strong daily resistance area, that hardly will be broken as overall sentiment remains negative here. We sure that markets wrongly understand Fed comments, accepting what they want to hear but ignoring all the other information. Our suggest that Fed slows the pace of rate hike because it is frightened with possible disaster consequences but not because inflation is defeated and the US economy is returning back to growth. Absolutely not, but particularly in this way markets understand the recent comments.
That's being said, we suggest that BTC could climb slightly higher, but hardly it will break 18-18.5 resistance area.
everything could have just changedif we see downside in semiconductors and rotation between sectors tha is slower and more masured leading to slower losses in indices, and the countertrend movement breaks out into a larger rebound i would call this the beginning of a broader market recovery. the inverse is that we traverse slightly lower, and extend backwardation with resistance around estimate (we are now below) and not seeing support till lower envelope. basically the trend is threatening to reverse in short and in long term, and if sss signal stays green index could be a buy. top of channel is not out of the question.
15.95-15.97KMorning folks,
Last time we've discussed this H&S pattern, it was just on a starting stage. Now it is almost completed. You know our position, we're skeptic on any bullish performance as there are now fundamental background for it. And we mostly are watching for this H&S failure.
But... those who have bullish view, could consider 15.95-15.97 support area, where the lows of right arm are likely to be formed. This is Agreement of downside 1.618 AB-CD pattern and major 5/8 support. This area doesn't guarantee you success, but definitely it gives you minimal potential loss as you could hide your stop very close.
Bears should watch for downside breakout of this area. And, somewhere around 15.55-15.6K it is possible to consider using of Stop "Sell" entry orders.
Skeptic on bullish potentialMorning folks,
BTC is taking pause and delays downside action to 14.8 and 13K target due to external factors. Mostly due to short-term dollar weakness that we suggest should last until the end of November. We keep valid mentioned targets and think that they will be completed, but a bit later than we initially thought.
We're skeptic on any bullish performance on BTC and do not intend to take the long position. If BTC appears to be strong enough, it could try to complete this reversed H&S pattern with ~17.5-17.8K target. So, the choice is up to you whether to trade it or not. We intend to use it for short entry at better price, if it still will reach the target.
NAS 100 I It will rise from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**NAS 100 - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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14.8 and 13.9KGood morning,
BTC mostly accurately completed our Thu analysis, showing just minor upside action to 17K and then has turned down again. We expect hawkish Fed minutes on Wed and consider no long position. Nearest standing targets are 14.8K and 13.9K of potential downside butterfly pattern.
EURUSD DailyCan I just say WOW at the rejection at the 200MA ?!? Honestly this is playing out how I would like to see the market.
I recognize a price action candle, the shooting star. The shooting star often occurs when the market is buying and begins to react at some level of resistance. I am identifying my level of resistance as the 200MA.
I would like to see todays candle (11/16) to close as an engulfed candle. ONLY IF todays candle close with momentum, the market is likely to continue to sell…
But as of right now, I am going to sit on my hands and continue to watch the market form.
16-16.1K is a vital areaMorning folks,
BTC performance looks weak, price is forming triangle consolidation after solid drop, which has more chances on downside continuation. Last time we have considered long entry on a pullback, and in general setup has worked nice. If you still keep longs - move stops to breakeven. If you do not have longs - do not take it by far. BTC could show minor upward action, and maybe re-test 17K area, but we're skeptic of extended bullish performance. Usually upward trend looks different.
For the bears - watch for 16-16.1K support area. Downside breakout will be the vital point of short-term tendency turn into bearish and puts odds in favor of downside triangle breakout.
CHZ/USDT Analysis Technical in Daily 🌼😃Hi 🤞
As can be seen in the chart, the price has hit the resistance zone of $0.26 to $0.28 three times, but has not been able to cross it so far. One of the general nature of markets that traders are constantly involved with is a phenomenon called Stop Hunt or Stop Hunting; Stop Hunt occurs when a trader has entered a trade and has set his limit, after some time the price has reached the limit and activates it and exits the trader from the trade. Then the price movement is reversed and goes in the direction of the trader's analytical process. Recently, Chiles has formed a lower floor than its previous floor by hitting the resistance zone (Bearish Zone) and its fall, which has led to the breakdown structure (BOS) in the daily timeframe. This event causes the current uptrend (short-term) to change to a downtrend. If you look at the left side of the chart in general, you will notice that another BOS structure has formed, where the price has the ability to cross above the major pivot A at the $0.33 level. According to these two mentioned criteria, the general trend of this cryptocurrency is downward, and in the medium term, the price will drop below floor B, which is at the price level of 0.08 dollars, there is a high probability of happening. If the price breaks through the resistance zone of $0.26 to $0.28, it has the ability to reach the levels of $0.33 and $0.35 (weak scenario). Otherwise, with the loss of the $0.15 support area, the price is expected to react to the $0.1 and $0.08 levels.
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Analyzer ✍: AR.Rashidi
18.5K pullback is possible nowMorning folks,
Long term sentiment and context remains bearish. FTX accident now is coming from just corporate finance topic into political and corruption scandal. Its echo will sound for a long time and many delicate nuances could come on a surface. The major result is losing of the confidence of investors into crypto.
Still, on a background of short-term dollar weakness and rally on other markets, BTC could try to make deeper upside bounce. Supposedly it could 18.5K resistance area and AB-CD upside target. See the chart.
Thus, we could say, it is nothing to do for the bears by far, just watch what will happen with this pullback. Long-term bulls also have nothing to do. Scalp traders could consider position taking with 18.5K target. But watch the 15.8K lows - it is vital area. If BTC breaks it down this bullish scenario fails.
GBPAUD I Potential +250 pip upside Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**GBPAUD - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
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Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
17.5 then 12.8K?Morning folks,
BTC once again confirms our long-term view. Those who read our fundamental reports do not buy BTC. Of course we can't foresee the reasons why it happens, but even fundamental background stands against long-term investment in crypto currencies.
Thus, our 16.5K target is done, which is also 1.27 extension of daily/weekly butterfly. Since BTC is not oversold and it has no solid support levels, now we see short-term pause due to speculators' booking. Supposedly retracement could reach 17.5-17.8 Fib resistance area and re-test broken consolidation border.
Our next target is 12.5-12.8K, which is major weekly AB=CD target and butterfly 1.618 extension (not shown here).
Take care,
S.