$BTC Hit Precise FIB Retracement! Could we get a bounce? $BTC.XHello fellow traders! It's pic here again. From the chart, we notice that Bitcoin ($BTC) has precisely hit the 78.6% fib retracement. Coincidence? I think not.
Selling pressure has faded and the weekend is here, perfect conditions for a short term bounce! I'm long until around $7,900-$8,000, then I'll evaluate from there.
Happy trading, don't get in a pickle!
Yo boy,
Pic
Digitalcurrency
LTCBTC (Will It Breakout or Flow w/ Trend)LTCBTC is currently testing a breakout in the same manner that it 'broke-in' - is that a thing?
Forming somehwhat of an 'L' during its descend into the current trend pattern, Litecoin/Bitcoin recent actions show the possibility of a breakout, possibly forming somewhat of a 'J' on the breakout and beginning of a new trend upwards. My close EMAs (10 and 15) show uptick in momentum as the 10 has recently crossed the 15. I wouldn't say that this is a surefire indicator however, it's shows the likelihood how of a good test run above the current trend line.
Either way, I've constructed some good entry points for both the possible BUY and the SELL. Check them out below and let me know if you dig the steez.
BUY ENTRY: 0.006892
SELL ENTRY: 0.006061
Near-term bearish signs for Bitcoin CashSUMMARY
Bearish doji candlestick pattern occurs after seven days up followed by a second high, leading to a potential double top.
Activity occurs on test of neckline of large bearish head & shoulders topping pattern.
Potentially significant drop possible to below most recent swing low.
A bearish daily Doji candlestick pattern occurs in Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) following seven days up, while a potential 1-day reversal triggered with a break below the candle’s low. This is the first time in eight days that price has dropped below the prior day’s low and is a clear change in the pattern of higher daily lows and higher daily highs.
The potential topping pattern occurs in an area of potential resistance identified by:
Neckline resistance of large bearish head and shoulder top pattern (HS).
Area of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of most recent swing high to low decline.
Bearish 14-period divergence occurs on 4-hour chart.
Most recent low to $196.80 was not close to reaching the measuring objective based on a percentage measurement, of approximately $144.54. Therefore, this pair has the potential to fall well below the most recent swing low. This doesn’t mean that it will, just that it could.
A move above the most recent trend high at $306.70 will negate the above potentially bearish analysis.
Bitcoin Spike to Flip Zone. Big Government is Coming.We had a big move on Bitcoin yesterday as we did bounce off a support/ zone at the 7500 zone.
What I am looking for is a close above the next resistance/flip zone at 9436 zone. It used to provide support, but once broken, we have yet to retest that zone. We have done so now and it will be interesting to see the Daily Candle body close...if it closes above or below the flip zone will be telling.
Alternative non fiat assets will be doing well going forward as central banks are stuck in a 0 interest rate and infinite stimulus period. They are out of tools and are doing everything to maintain confidence in the system right now. They will inflate currencies and we are now in a race to the bottom to 0 and negative interest rates. I am big on precious metals, but I can see money running into cryptos as well...although the more established ones.
Human history is cycles of hard and soft money. No fiat system has ever survived. It seems we are approaching the end of this cycle. There is a confidence crisis approaching. Where people will lose confidence in government, banks and the fiat money.
The repo event we are seeing is telling. The Fed is losing control of the system and now up to 120 Billion a day is injected into the system just to keep interest rates low and money flowing.
If you follow my work, I have said why a digital currency is coming. Governments will get big and will use digital currency to track and tax money. Taxing things such as restaurant tips, your private jobs and selling things on ebay or craigslist etc. It is especially for small business.
If we go down the MMT/Universal Income path, we need more taxes. The socialist economists know that giving people more money while competing for the same number of goods and services will cause inflation and this extra money to account for nothing. They way you prevent this is by using taxes to remove excess money. Government essentially takes the role of the central banks. Green/Climate tax is great for this, because governments know that the people are less likely to protest because they do not want to be labelled a global warming denier.
This system is coming. Digital money for enslavement is coming. It will be to primarily force people to save using fiat money and force them to keep the money in banks that have negative interest rates thereby paying the banks to do so. There will likely be a credit freeze where the system is shut down. People start to get violent towards the banks and corporations, and government says don't worry we will save you. Since people will be desperate to access their money, government will introduce a nation wide system including a digital currency and people will accept it.
Look around the world and you can see all the social/political and economic crisis' getting worse. What the central banks are doing currently will not make things better. They will make things worse and they will destroy the currency and middle class to do so. As mentioned, Government will get bigger and more authoritarian to keep the system together. In some countries, Government will be the one to create the demand for the currency (like Canada where I live). The US has reserve status which means there is artificial demand for the Dollar. Europe and Japan export a lot so the Euro and Yen are in demand by countries when they import from Japan and Europe meaning both nations can warrant their monetary policy...even though it does not work. Remember, all authoritarianism always comes in the form of liberalism. It has always been the young who have put these people into power because they lack ignorance on money and how the world really works.
So many people are wondering what has caused this spike. I have said China is what you need to watch. Since the Chinese cannot really day trade and need government permission to open a trading account, many opened crypto accounts since the crypto market is decentralized. This is what caused the big Bitcoin move back in the day.
China is set to phase out cash and release their digital Yuan. The goal was to have it released by Singles Day, November 11th, China's largest retail holiday. We can be seeing Chinese money realize the game and using Bitcoin to get out of the fiat that will be forced upon them.
Interesting times for the world ahead, and it all has to do with economics and the failure of monetary policy.
Cryptocurrency Market Cap Inverted Head & ShouldersThe cryptocurrency market is at an interesting inflection point, while the technology is vastly improving and making ground in gaining users and adoption, a large sum of market value is tied up in projects/networks that are never used beyond trading based purposes. As these markets dry up, value will drop as individuals/market participants look to extract what ever value they have left in their token holdings.
The market needs to strip the value of the none worthy projects and in turn the whole market must suffer.
Overall Analysis of Bitcoin - Update of August 19th's WeekFundamental: Earlier this week as the stock market took a horrific tumble over weakening macroeconomic fundamentals, fears of a recession sprang up as an economist focused on an inverted yield curve on treasury bonds.This week the slope on US Treasury bonds became inverted and for economists and market analysts, this is typically an indicator that a recession could be on the way. At the same time, Gold has continued to rise in price and many investors believe that Bitcoin is a similar store of value and hedge against volatility.
Technical: Bitcoin fell by 1.36% today. After struggling to hold above the $11,000 point earlier this week, Bitcoin price, at last, succumbed to selling pressure and dropped below $10,000 for the second time in three weeks. Prior to the drop, numerous analysts predicted that $10k would serve as a reliable bounce point as the price represents important psychological support.
Advise: Stay Bullish and buy any Lowe points while we don't break downside 9600.0
Risk off helps Bitcoin We are seeing heavy risk off in European trading and for the US futures, so this seems is helping Bitcoin to continue its rise above my initial target. Current bullish bias remains strong, and I am expecting further impulse to the upside as Demarker is moving above the overbought zone as well.
I will be expecting the price t reach 12049 price level zone and the top diagonal line of the correction boundaries. As a phase 2 of the movement I will be expecting a move down again towards 10217, but the price to remain in the long-term uptrend.
ETH's bullish bias remains validWe observe a nice uptrend, with an inside short-term correction, that seems slowing down as the price bounce couple of time from the diagonal support.
Price currently is stuck in a tight, consolidating range, looking for a direction.
With the current stalemate in regards to fundamentals, technicals can settle in nicely. DeM is also moving out from the oversold zone as well and the price remains above the 200 daily moving average.
Current projection is for a short - term rise towards the 231.33 levels, correction to the diagonal again, and a move up towards 256.80.
Alternatively, price will breach the diagonal for a movement towards 190.20.
Short - term bias remains bullish for BitcoinAlthough there is lack of fundamentals action for the world of crypto and things have calmed down a bit, price remains above 9500, finding support in the zone around 9085. Technicals lead to a bullish bias, which may led the price again above the 50 daily moving average towards 10917. As the zone has prove to be a strong resistance, I except a short-term move down again towards 9085.
I expect the consolidation to stay relevant for some time until a relevant catalyst triggers a larger price movement.
Range expectations are for 10917 - 9085.
BNBUSD_Turbulent Waters AheadAfter sky rocketing from $4 to $40 over the course of 7 months is a testament to the confidence the market has in Binance and its dominant position in the Cryptocurrency market.
However, I think the tides are turning. With Binance withdrawing from the United States at the start of September, I believe we will start to see individuals selling their BNB(and other tokens for that matter) until they have clarity on the future of Binance for the US.
Primary reasons for Binance to enter a downtrend:
-Uncertainty for United States Clients, even with Binance opening an American Trading Arm, there is a lot of uncertainty on what that looks like.
-Shear Selling Pressure from doing 350% over a 6 month period.
-Binance DEX not picking up enough volume to generate BNB demand.
-More Exchanges offering products that draw volume and traders away from Binance, thus decreases BNB needs
-1 Year left of BNB fee reduction. THIS IS HUGE, this is a massive reason why BNB is purchased and traded. The fee reduction is vital to the success of the BNB economic model, when it is removed, BNB will lose an important economic mechanic for generating price appreciation.
XRP in prime buying zonePlease review prev XRP ideas since Feb.
We are trading in a nice range after a impulsive breakout upward. I am looking for a wave 5 impulse on the hourly and a wave 2 on the daily.
A re-entry around .035 to .375 would be a nice grab I think. I will be re-entering a large bag around this zone and hope for a tap on the buy entry!
If you like this idea please follow, give me a thumbs up and comment for any questions. I will have a buy stop if we break below .37 so it hits it when it comes back up unless I see the pattern on the lower time frame beforehand.
At the G20 summit there was a lot of good news. Plans for the IMF to use the ILP and xrp transfers soon to come heading into 2020. I see 1.00 in our near future...I truly do!!!!
News that follows this idea:
G20 officially supports FATF crypto guidelines
finance.yahoo.com
[Reading notes] : chapter 13 how & when to sell shortHello, everyone
This is a threads of my reading notes for the great book: [ Technical analysis using multiple timeframes ]
And here is the notes of chapter 13, how & when to sell short
I will go through all of key points of this book, and find proof from the bitcoin chart.
Why to selling short?
from the book : bear markets occur every 39 months on average and typically last for about 18 months. that is a lot of time where the odds are stacked against long trades and where selling short makes sense to generate market profits for the purpose of current income.
And let's have a look at the bitcoin market for the bear market times:
02.Dec 2013 ~ 24.Aug 2015 last 21 months.
18.Dec 2017 ~ 28.Jan 2019 last 14 months.
In the long time of bear market, shorting is a good tools to catch great profit.
Measures of sell short
By selling short, the trader expects to profit by repurchasing the shares at a lower level and profiting from the difference.
And cutting losses must be taken very seriously when selling short since the unlimited losses.
Shorting takes the right mindset
Selling short is a skill that every serious trader learns to utilize during stage 4 market declines.
The best time for sell short is during a bear market, but there are always stocks in a stage 4 decline that can be sold short regardless of the overall market environment.
What is a bear market?
The most obvious sign of market bearishness is when the majority of stocks are in established downtrends or when the overall market indices are below key moving averages. the best way to define a bear market is an environment in which markets where the 200-day MA is declining.
Let's look at the chart pattern of bitcoin in bear market 2014 and 2018 with 200 day MA.
From the chart above, we can see in the bull run, bitcoin will not touch the 200 day MA, if bitcoin drop below the 200day MA, then it's high possibility we enter the bear market, and 200 day MA will become a major resistance line of bitcoin.
But is it the best indicator of bear market? how can we measure we are near the peak of ATH? find the bear market indication in in early stage is very profitable and very risky also
another clue is the price of stock/bitcoin drop below the long term support line. such as in 2017 bull run, the 20 week MA is the most important support line for bitcoin, but it drops below the 20 week MA on 29.Jan 2018. This may indicate the bear market is coming!
And I found another indication is the bitcoin is not correction in healthy range (20 week MA) and resume to advance again, this means the final ATH will be very soon.
Sentiment of bear market
In the bull market, everyone is very confident, but in bear market, stock tend to drop much quicker than they advance and it has a great deal to do with emotion. bear market are characterized by a stronger emotion response than bull markets because people are complacent when they are winning and become frightened when they are losing. fear is a much stronger motivator than complacency, and emotional liquidation from frustrated long holders can lead to quick declines.
Choosing shorts
Timing need to be more accurate when it comes to shorts, in bear environment, try to concentrate only on the highest probability setups, and keep overall trading activity low relative to your trading volume in a bull market. you need to have the patience to let the market present you with the lowest-risk opportunities. This occurs when the trend are aligned on multiple timeframes .
Some of sharpest rallies experienced by stocks occur during a downtrends, and while these rallies usually fail to hold up in a down trending stock.
Trend trading is the safer way to consistent profitability, so do not allow yourself to be enticed by the rapid movement.
Short alignment
Trend alignment of short trading positions is the lowest-risk, highest-profit potential trade scenario. Whether we trade long or short, the basic cyclical structure of the market never changes.
Find the candidate with daily timeframe
The first step in trading short is to find a stock in an established stage 4 downtrend. when trading from the short side, we ideally want the overall market, the sector and the stock to be in a decline.
In digital currency market, we hope the bitcoin is in decline when shoring the alt coins.
And if the daily MA 10-, 20-, 50- stacked below each other 10<20<50 is another bonus for shorting. let apply these rules.
Shorting choose in bear market
07. Feb 2014, lower high formed in Jan 11, and consolidate in the neck line range ~ 790, but after 1 month, the market choose downside direction, when 07.Feb 2014, we can see obvious MA stacked 10<20<50, it's a sign of bear formed, good point to start short.
13.Aug 2014, lower high formed in 01.July 2014, and break the neck line in 14.Aug 2014, with daily MA 10<20<50 stacking, good point to shorting.
05.Mar 2018, daily double top seems formed, this chart pattern in bear market have strong power to drive the price down. we can setup shoring with stop loss in here.
05.May 2018, daily double top formed, we can shorting with stop loss from here:
29.July 2018, bitcoin price formed lower high in daily chart. shorting!
14.Nov 2018, bitcoin break the major support which support bitcoin ~ 1 year. the longer the hold, if breaks, the large dump will happen. shorting without reasons!
Shorting in bull market
I have to say shorting in bull market is very risky, bulls driven by FOMO of crowd. Don't short in bull market otherwise you're very experienced in trading. And one rule we should always keep in mind is we should ride the trends, not try to violate or control it.
So in bull market, just find the right position to long, don't try to stand on the oppose/low possibility position.