GET READY TO SEE TREND CHANGE IN DOW FROM MONDAY ONWARDS TRADE PLAN FOR 18/5/20( MONDAY)
1. The chart I am showing is the daily chart of DJI . Here currently dow is in local distribution phase , where last leg of upwards move is going on. In fact intermediate corrective structure last leg.
2. This is irregular corrective pattern whose last leg is expected to go in red dotted upper micro zone . This the point where this local phase of distribution will end with the completion of c leg of intermediate correction is expected to finish. It may be possible that price would move from lower end of red dotted zone to down side.
3. When this sort of structure gets completed , then with trend gets started that is from point Z is down. Therefore, as per my analysis dow will see fall from Monday on wards. As you all know stock market is game of probability nothing can be 100% sure. So some conditions also apply with this analysis. lets us discuss them in detail.
4. You can see in fig. I made an arrow of green color pointing towards up side. In fact that is showing one condition here. The condition is If price breaches the upper end of micro red dotted zone and comes back in next one hour with out breaking swing of upper side and the day candle closes in red zone, then this zone will remain intact. And positional shorts can be taken with the stop loss of upper swing high. with the first target of blue support line.
5. On the other hand , on breaching price from upper band of red zone and price do not cone back in next one hour of trading then sentiments of shorts will change to longs. Rest market will decide . Price is supreme.
YOGESH VATS
Djiaforecast
DJI: Market Showing Weakness, Short Term (May 3)X Force Global Analysis:
All markets is currently showing weakness in both technical and fundamental reasonings. With no clear signs of recovery for the COVID-19 situation, we may see an uprise of technical traders taking advantage of the situation to drive price down even further trying to keep the technical aspects on a larger picture in tact.
With that being said, we can see a clear break of the 1D rising wedge that may drive us down to the main three fib levels.
Another interesting correlation is with the cryptocurrency markets, where Bitcoin is showing similar signs of retracements and bounces. Please check the extreme similarities in our other analysis:
Trade Safe.
Is It Time For The Recovery? Or More Down Side? (DJI)Their is a lot to study here.
Ever since our initial breakout we have not seen a retest on the breakout to test for a support.
Each impulse has decreased roughly by 7% each push back up.
The last wave was a 7% impulse as we reach the level of Resistance.
The decrease in buy percentage could represent a correction to come.
24815 is key break level for upside continuation.
If it did fail to breakout out I'd look to play a bounce off the downward breakout level to see if we can find support.
Total we have 5 waves up to current level. Could be end of a wave cycle.
I know that these times have impacted many lives and ultimately I just wish it would fly back up and the world can go back to work.
Very critical area for the stockmarket around these levels.
Enjoy.
Dow JonesSymbol: DJI
Who said major recessions couldn't be predicted?
Buy green
Sell red
I'm just sayin.... 🤫
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The Fakeout BounceWhether old charts, new charts, big drops or smaller ones - charts with sharp drops in price share very similar characteristics. I decided to use two very different examples; one from a different period in time, though similar to our current move in size (Crash of 1929), and one from our current time period and though much smaller in size it still meets the sharp drop criteria (January 2018).
This move is pretty standard in these scenarios, a sharp wave 4 retracement after a massive wave 3 drop setting the stage for wave 5. Me personally, I am looking at the 1.272 extension as a potential bottom on this move, plus 2000 is likely to be a psychological support as well. Looking for that move to conclude most likely by month's end.
Dow JonesStock Symbol: DJI
Big picture, don't fight it. Let it correct. It is way to early to make a call on this. We are viewing this from looking way out. That is a massive red doozie. Waiting for solid compression. Last break like this was the 2008 collapse. I ain't touching it.
Diversify and use 5% stoploss
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Thank you for your continued support, God bless you though these times.
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Dow Jones now at 20941, Long Term Target is below 10000Long Term Dow Jones Industrial Average target is below 10,000
This is not a forecast I want to make, but this is what my longer term analysis shows. I hope the forecast does not come true but this is what my analysis shows, which is based on multiple time frame analysis of volatility and momentum.
Best strategy according to this analysis is to look for sell signals after every strong rally loses momentum, unless and until this high probability pattern is invalidated.
ridethepig | Getting Itchy Fingers in US Equities...Getting our bearings...
If a retrace swing is checked in its advance only by opposing forces, waiting for sentiment to improve will mean you have missed out on a lot of the bounce. There is the recognition that when a crash like this happens, we must sacrifice a part of our own effectiveness just to help keep an eye on it, outguessing the lows is an advanced game, you will need to keep tracking continuously over the coming days/weeks.
When we remember another signpost, name that the 2s5s was screaming recession last year in that it is a born defender, we will gradually get to the point where selling exhausts in Equities and is worthy of our respect.
We need to ask ourselves...what is the best price to outguess an ambitious swing low? What is the most secure defence of our own portfolios? What is the cheapest stop cluster on the board to load into? e.g The lows at +/- 15,500 are once more open for a sweep, because new cycles are not suited to long-term populated ladder inactivities. This is much less the case when a swing is employed in such a chapter.
Let us now take a look at some of the underlying factors that are weighing heavy right now, firstly the " Consumer Staples " chart of the previous chapter. In this connection, I must first mention the majority. At the start of the turn the low hanging fruit was there to be taken, but after the 2008 crisis it was one way traffic.
As the game continues, Covid-19 is now marking the highs in this cycle, and then the majority of SMEs are under severe pressure against liquidity. Every day, uncompromised jobs are being lost with Jobless Claims exploding through the roof:
A rule which is dictated not only by strategic necessity but much deeper, as I am sure you will admit, by sheer "good manners". The rule can be described with scientific precision as follows:
=> The knee-jerk lows of the decline is the candidate we are considering, as there is support at 15,500 I will look to fade dips into this area and then play a swing towards 35,000.
With Oil on the $20 lows, sellers are looking to cripple Russia and Saudi. How simple! And yet, how often does one see weaker players advance the move, then comes the majority of retailers which is no value to us. We are approaching the final few chapters in the Oil decline too, the explanation is simple, they are undecided whether to start on the supply side cuts, so being unable to make up their minds (and killing US Shale in the meantime) markets do what all solid players do: they stick the knife in and cause maximum pain.
In this position, sellers have a passed swing, but it can be seen more clearly in Monthly:
This stopping is achieved by US placing one's focus on Gold and directly increasing the price of XAUUSD. But here, as in all other cases, the question arises: is Gold:Oil ratio (XAUUSD & XAUCNY | USOIL & CNYOIL contracts) not an unnecessary use of energy? Actually China managed to devalue the CNY right in-front of our eyes via Oil. The only way the US can now keep a healthy petrodollar market is by keeping a low gold:oil ratio which is either via low Gold and high Oil or High Gold and low Oil, you get the point.
Two options are in play right now... either widespread defaults or I am glad to offer you what I believe is an exhaustive solution to the problem I have raised and inflate assets away. Nominal GDP will need to grow and your mediocre critic would sum up the problem in a short comment: write off student debts, or more helicopter money. But to my mind this betrays a poverty of thought! The why and wherefore are extraordinarily important. It would be ridiculous to write a piece here without a psychological element. In my books, its just as ridiculous to write a manual about swing strategy without immersing oneself in the innermost being of the participating drivers of flows.
No matter how unusual the following scenario may seem, I can only insist on the fact that models show confidence collapsing in public assets which will trigger inflows towards private sector in the coming years. They too have desires that slumber unrecognised within them, and fears of which they are scarcely aware. But quite removed from that, a detailed case for the need to outguess the turn is more practical use than those who seek theory. Of course, I do not consider the presence of a practical plan as an extenuating development, for what have I do do with extenuating developments!!
Take care everyone and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Dow Jones SelloffEven with the bounce that Dow Jones is experiencing, the general trend is still bearish and will likely be for a while as long as Covid-19 is around. At the end of trading hours buying spiked, hinting towards a sharp selloff, as has happened the last 4 times it has spiked last minute. On top of this, the 10 day RSI has just reached 70, suggesting it is now in the recovery's overbought territory. Although the stimulus bill is a much bigger deal, the market has not yet compensated for the impact of the record unemployment rate. If it goes up tomorrow, I believe it will be a very risky bet to hold on during the weekend since the 3 largest percentage losses have happened on Mondays.
Rally on DJI (Dow Jones)The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 11% to clock its biggest advance since 1933. Dow Jones futures jumped Tuesday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, amid optimism about a massive stimulus deal.
New support at 20,000 for DJI. Not sure how long this rally will last because its basically akin to printing money to keep the economy going. I feel the fundamentals are weakening but the artificial support might keep the market alive for a short period of time but long term wise, might be harmful for the economy. Just my 2 cents. hmm..
DJIA - Short term Elliott Wave ForecastLike most other global equity indices, I'm looking for a 4th wave in the current cycle to complete before a drop lower in to the green box, with possible extensions to the yellow box.
This low in to the green box below will either end the down trend since the highs or will prove to be the first part of a three part move to even lower prices.
Watching TWO Levels on DIA - 177.5, 164.5DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust) is falling close to the previous sideway consolidation (Aug 2015 - Feb 2016).
Watching TWO Levels on DIA:
- 177.5 (Where DJI started its long bull market from Nov 2016)
- 164.5 (Above the legs of the previous sideway consolidation & 2.618 of the Fib Cicle)
These levels show some reset for the market and should show some support.
Go LONG on that. There could be a big rally before the US Election 2020.
DJI 30 min Chart - Sell to reach 2nd targetbeside March 10 posts
now we Sell US30 30 min - Head and shoulder pattern
expect to reach 2nd target 18000 - 17826.
DOW Outlook 26 FEB 20See chart for key pivot points for todays trading day.
futures are up small at this moment, if we cannot obtain the pivots shown and we roll over into yesterdays low more volatility is to come, looking for sell setups
on the other hand if we can penitrate the pivot lines we could see a relief rally towards yesterdays open levels
US30 Index - Free Fall To 29000This is my favorite stock to trade. The smell for this stock making a free fall jump back flip style is around the corner.
I am targeting this index will going to 29250 or worst 29000 after failed for the 1/2 into the course.
As you can see the chart, the signal tells us the rumbling of the interested buyer and mix with uninterested buyer.
I have sell this stock just now.
by Zezu Zaza
Trading Pathways Analysis of DJI H4 Chart
The outlined white arrow pathway is the predicted pathway that the DJI H4 will follow in the coming days or weeks. Using my unique charting methods, I have been able to arrive at HIGH PROBABILITY turning points where DJI H4 will turn.
PLEASE NOTE THE ABOVE ANALYSIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE NOT DIRECT INSTRUCTIONS TO TRADE AND ANY LOSS INCURRED BY FOLLOWING THIS ANALYSIS IS AT YOUR OWN RISK.
Eiseprod of Trading Pathways
DJI Future Map - A Correction is Imminent$DJI has been on an absolutely MASSIVE bull run since the collapse back in 2008-2009; a decade ago!
We all know what goes up must come down though and the DJI is due for another +50% correction.
This chart is on the Weekly. I usually prefer using the Day charts however I noticed some interesting trends that I hoped to share.
2008-2009
-The correction in 2008 was 55% from top to bottom
-The RSI at the peak was slightly Overbought so a little surprised the price tanked -7784 points
2016-2018
-The 1.618 ratio (19008) took 8 years to be hit
-The 2.618 ratio (26793) took 1 year, 2016-2017
-The RSI at the 2.618 level was 95 – Super Overbought which made sense to see the beginning of a huge correction however that wasn’t the case. A double top formed at the same level and then -
the price corrected roughly -5000 points, -18-20% towards the end of 2018-2019
-This correction pinged off possibly the 1.702-1.786 level (21712) from the first FIB (08-09)
-The RSI was once again just slightly Overbought at 70-72 level
-Price has continued to climb due to various political measures; volatility between Trump and China (Tariffs) as well as the beginning of the Impeachment talk
-The FED also injecting the ‘NOT QE’ funds into the REPO arena has stimulated the economy as well
-The current RSI is at 67 so it’s getting once again very close to those Overbought levels that haven’t been met since a year ago when the correction occurred
-Trump officially Impeached on December 18th and the $DJI keeps pumping
Beyond
I can’t predict the future but based on my FIB mapping, I’m expecting the possibility of a massive recession/depression type correction to be made when the 3.618 (34577) level is met. This is based on the FIB calculation from 2008-2009.
The current movements are lining up quite nicely with this FIB chart and the new FIB chart if calculated from the future ‘top’ indicates that we will see a re-tracement to the 0.618 (26627) level and in my opinion ultimately back down to the 1.618 (13761) level where I believe a good amount of resistance will be met. This is a negative 60% drop!
In the event 2.618 (896) level is met (worse than a Depression) that’s a negative 96% dump. I dunno if this will happen, but my guess is that we'll see this drop in-between 2021-2022.
DOW JONES NOT REVERSING YET: WEEKLYThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is still looking like a strong bull on the weekly timeframe. The candles have not yet formed a reversal pattern, there is still potential for the upside after breaking the previous top. On a weekly candle once a pin bar formation of a strong reversal Doji forms then we can talk about the potential downside. For now, the target is still the top of the channel at 28650-28700.
There is a potential for a slight retrace but price should not get much below 27300 on a long-term perspective. That will ensure structure holds well bullish. Each failure off the top of the channel was followed by a 6.60% retrace, for that to occur price has to move up to the top of the channel, IF there is a 6+% retrace, the channel and bull structure is broken and the move lower can price the Dow Jones into correction territory.