Dollar
GBPUSD: Preparing For Rate Decision Next Week 🇬🇧🇺🇸
We are expecting a lot of important fundamental news next week.
Here is your trading plan for GBPUSD.
The market is currently trading within a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries, I see 2 potential scenarios.
If the price breaks and closes above the resistance of the range,
we can anticipate a bullish movement to 1.294 resistance.
A bearish violation of the support of the range and a daily candle close below that will most likely trigger a bearish movement to 1.254
Wait for a breakout, that will be your strong technical confirmation.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Trading Plan Ahead of the FED 💵
Dollar Index keeps consolidating.
The market is stuck within a narrow range on a daily.
It feels like the market participants are waiting for the FED interest rate decision next week.
Pay attention to the boundaries of the range.
Its bullish breakout will be a strong bullish confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 104.15 level then.
If the price violates the support of the range and closes below that on a daily,
a bearish continuation will be anticipated to 102.22 support.
Patiently wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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DXY Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 103.600 zone, DXY was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 103.600 support and resistance area.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 26.01.2024 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish around 2021.000 forming Daily Support around 2014.100 as price retraces back into the Daily consolidation zone.
– Buys on close above 2023.800 targeting Strong Daily Resistance formed around 2029.800, Leaving Runners to the 4h Resistance formed around 2035.300.
– Sells on close below 2013.800 targeting 4h Strong Support formed around 2009.000, Leaving Runners to the Weekly Support formed around 2004.000.
– High Impact News ahead of the New York session for the US Dollar, Core PCE Price Index m/m and Pending Home Sales m/m. High Volatility expected.
Upside for Silver is Coming! Long Setup!I am taking an early long position on Silver as we are getting a trendline and 4 hourly resistance breakout.
Long from 22.79 or as close as possible.
Target 1 - 23.30 - Set stop loss to break even once T1 has been hit.
Target 2 - 24.05
Target 3 - 24.50
Extreme Target - 25.49
Stop loss - 21.80
Dollar Index (DXY): Bullish Price Action 💵
Dollar Index retested a recently broken horizontal structure on a daily.
After its test, the price formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern
and violated a resistance line of a bullish flag formation.
We can expect growth today.
Next resistance: 103.5
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Risky, potential buy on demand zone | USDCADUSDCAD Create a 1H demand zone, considering 4H buy sentiment i expect a continuation to the upside to take out 1.34921 liquidity.
Also USDCAD had gone extreme hence exposes to a taking risky potential long term buy , it may react to 1.35424 - 1.35047 potential supply zone.
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 25.01.2024 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed strong Bearish around 2014.200 breaking out of the recent Daily Range, Forming Daily Resistance around 2029.700.
– Buys on close above 2019.500 targeting previous 4h Support formed around 2024.500, Leaving Runners to the strong recent Daily Resistance formed around 2029.700.
– Sells on close below 2011.200 targeting Weekly Support formed on 11th December 2023 around 2004.400, Leaving Runners to the previous 1h Resistance formed on 11th December 2023 around 1999.000.
– High Impact News ahead of the New York session for the US Dollar, starting with Advance GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, followed by Durable Goods Orders m/m. High Volatility expected.
The DXY Anomaly: Interpreting the Incoming CorrectionThis week's focus is on the potential for a minor retracement in the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), highlighted by a noticeable bearish divergence when compared with the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures. This divergence is particularly significant as it suggests a weakening momentum in the dollar's recent uptrend.
While both the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures have succeeded in setting new highs, the DXY has not followed suit, failing to create a higher high. This disparity indicates that the upward movement in the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures could be attributed more to a liquidity-driven event rather than a fundamental change in market sentiment towards the dollar.
As a result, we can anticipate possible bearish movements in forex pairs where the dollar is the base currency in the coming week. Conversely, in pairs where the dollar is the quote currency, there could be bullish movements. However, it is important to note that these expectations are also contingent on the performance and dynamics of the counterpart currencies in these pairs.
Traders should monitor the DXY for early signs of a reversal and adjust their positions accordingly, keeping in mind the broader implications of a weakening dollar on various currency pairs. As always, a comprehensive approach that considers global economic news and geopolitical developments will be essential in navigating the forex market during this period of potential dollar retracement.
EURUSD: Detailed Structure Analysis 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis for EURUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.0898 - 1.0922 area
Resistance 2: 1.0973 - 1.1000 area
Resistance 3: 1.1106 - 1.1140 area
Support 1: 1.0793 - 1.0848 area
Support 2: 1.0724 - 1.0760 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022
But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing.
Often when commentators have given up on the idea
of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction.
Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear.
These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop.
30% of the land
and well over a 1/4 of global GDP
Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
DXY The uptrend is only halfway there. Still time to buy.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we analyzed it (December 28 2023, see chart below), exactly at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up:
Our perspective hasn't changed, this is the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up but this consolidation is simply a standard technical re-accumulation within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is exactly what took place during the previous Bullish Leg around the 1D MA50 (August 03 - 10). Even the 1D RSI indicates that we are on a symmetric Bullish Leg.
Our first Target remains the same (104.500), which is exactly on the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci and marginally below the horizontal 0.618 Fibonacci level. If after that the price pulls-back and re-tests the 1D MA200 and holds as in late August 2023 (i.e. close the 1D candle above it), we will buy again and target the 0.786 horizontal Fibonacci level at 15.900.
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XAUUSD Technical Analysis 24.01.2024 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish around 2029.200 closing within recent Daily Resistance formed on Monday 22nd January 2024, forming Daily Support around 2021.600.
– Buys on close above 2031.000 targeting 4h Resistance formed around 2035.800, Leaving Runners to the 1h Resistance formed around 2041.400.
– Sells on close below 2020.700 targeting 1h previous Resistance formed on 18th January 2024 around 2015.100, Leaving Runners to the 4h Support formed around 2009.000.
– High Impact News ahead of the New York session for the US Dollar, We have Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI, High Volatility expected during the New York session.
Why Now is the Time to Go Long on USD/JPYThe trade idea capitalizes on the economic strengths of the US and the challenges faced by Japan, making a long position on USD/JPY appealing.
Amidst the contrasting economic landscapes of the US and Japan, a long position on USD/JPY appears favorable. The robust and resilient US economy, marked by strong retail sales, positive jobless claims, and optimistic consumer sentiment, positions the USD on solid ground. In contrast, Japan faces challenges with contracting Manufacturing PMI, easing CPI, and external factors like weakened Chinese data impacting its economic outlook.
US Economic Strength:
Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates reflects a strong and resilient economy.
December retail sales surged, indicating consumer confidence.
Positive jobless claims and robust performance in ISM Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales further strengthen the USD.
JPY Economic Challenges:
BOJ maintains expected monetary policy; Governor Ueda expresses openness to easing.
Stable Unemployment Rate, but Manufacturing PMI contracts while Services PMI shows resilience.
Japanese wage data falls below expectations, impacting BOJ's policy decisions.
Weakening Chinese data adds complexities to Japan's economic scenario.
Trade Strategy:
Long Position on USD/JPY: Consider initiating a long position on the USD/JPY currency pair.
Entry Point: Look for technical signals indicating potential upward momentum.
Stop-Loss: Place below recent significant support to manage downside risks.
Take-Profit: Target the next resistance level, considering the positive momentum in the US economy.
GBPUSD: BoS, weak GBP, strengthening USDI'm expecting a big collapse from this pair over the next few weeks.
I'm seeing a Break of Structure on the lower timeframes, with 1hr retest.
GBP data shocking and certainly indicating recession, USD not looking like a recession. Heightening global conflict could also lead to a stronger USD.
I'm going short on this pair, first target 1.255.
GBPUSD Top Down Analysis January 23, 2024Top-down Analysis.
In this video, we take a close look at the GBPUSD to find out where it is going. Using a top-down analysis, we have examined all possible directions of price movement in the short term and long term, respectively.
We are expecting to catch a down move that will give us a potential of 147 pips in profit if it goes our way.
I ideas for XAUUSD 1H gold On H1 there is a downward rang , but it is better to look for strong support level at 2024.6 and resistance level. because now it is impossible to say clearly as. a symmetrical triangle is forming globally.
Resistance levels: 2035-2048-2050
Support levels:2025-2020-2018
My goal is 2025