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USDJPY → Consolidating Before the Next Rally.Hello, dear friends! Ben here! USD/JPY is consolidating after a strong bullish run, fluctuating around the 157.75 level. The Japanese Yen continues to weaken amid wavering expectations regarding a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised lower to 50.9 from 51.4 in December. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains near a two-year high, supported by the Fed's hawkish shift, further bolstering the USD/JPY pair. Currently, the focus is on the consolidation phase, which has been forming over the past few weeks. We have clear boundaries, trends, and key levels to guide our trading decisions. For me, the trigger lies at the 158 resistance level. A breakout and price consolidation above this level would confirm that the pair is ready to push higher. This rally is expected to reach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 159, completing wave 5 within the channel. Regards !
Long
by Bentradegold
3
Mighty Dollar Eyes Further GainsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) commenced the new year on a strong note, breaking out of its consolidation phase and surging toward the 109.50 level on January 2. ◉ Technical Observations ● The daily candle close on Friday formed an inside bar bearish candle, indicating a potential pullback in the week ahead. ● Immediate support levels are situated between 107.50 and 107.00. ◉ Market Outlook and Key Events The US jobs report comes out on Friday and will be the main focus for the market this week. A strong jobs report could strengthen the US dollar, affecting emerging markets and commodities.
TVC:DXYLong
by NaranjCapital
1
NAS100 - Nasdaq, no interest in Santa Rally!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply zone will provide us with the conditions to sell it. In the annual rebalancing of the Nasdaq Index, the shares of Tesla, Meta Platforms, and Broadcom saw a reduction in their weighting, while Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet gained more weight. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this marks the second time in roughly a year that index regulators have adjusted the allocations for its largest members. The rules governing the Nasdaq 100 are designed to prevent a small number of companies from exerting excessive influence on the index. These rules have become increasingly relevant in recent years due to the extraordinary growth in market value of major companies and advancements in artificial intelligence. Although the Nasdaq 100 is weighted by market capitalization, certain limits are enforced if a few companies grow disproportionately large. This recent rebalancing may have been prompted by a rule that allows regulators to reduce the weighting of the top five companies to below 40%, with other adjustments made accordingly. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, remarked, “At times, the Nasdaq 100 has to take such measures because it becomes a victim of its own success; the largest stocks in the index have grown significantly faster than others.” This year, the shares of major technology companies have risen sharply due to advancements in artificial intelligence. Broadcom, a key chip supplier for Apple and other tech giants, reached a market value of $1 trillion. Tesla also surged by around 75% following the U.S. presidential election. In the Nasdaq 100, Apple’s weighting increased from 9.2% to 9.8%, while Nvidia rose from 7.9% to 8.4%. Microsoft and Amazon also gained weight, and Alphabet saw a slight increase. However, Broadcom’s weighting fell from 6.3% to 4.4%, Tesla’s dropped from 4.9% to 3.9%, and Meta’s decreased from 4.9% to 3.3%. Currently, over 200 exchange-traded products, with combined assets totaling approximately $540 billion, track the Nasdaq 100 or its variations globally. Athanasios Psarofagis of Bloomberg Intelligence noted, “This highlights the increasing influence of index providers on market dynamics.” Last year, thanks to the resilience of the economy, strong earnings reports, a 100-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, and the leadership of the Mag7, the S&P 500 recorded 57 new all-time highs (ATHs). On Friday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, speaking at the Maryland Bankers Association, outlined the conditions needed for rate cuts and discussed the broader impacts of the new tariff plan proposed by President-elect Donald Trump. Barkin downplayed the immediate and direct effects of the tariff program. Markets do not anticipate any rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting. The private and non-farm payrolls report (ADP) set to be released on Wednesday, along with Thursday’s weekly jobless claims data, could offer a clearer picture of the U.S. labor market ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI for December, scheduled for release on Monday, could provide further insights into the overall performance of the U.S. economy, as the services sector accounts for over 80% of GDP. The minutes of the December Fed meeting will also be published on Wednesday, but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on markets as updated economic forecasts have already been released. The November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a sharp increase in job creation, with 227,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy. This contrasted with just 12,000 jobs added in October, marking the weakest job growth since December 2020. If the December report also indicates that October’s weakness was temporary, some investors might conclude that even two rate cuts in 2025 would be excessive. This could contribute to the continued strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. The key question is whether the stock market, given expectations of fewer rate cuts, will continue its downward trend or recover with signs of robust economic performance.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
GOLD → Pressure from the bears. Why are we falling?FX:XAUUSD does not react to strong support levels. The bulls, despite the positive background for them, could not keep the defense above the key structure. Weak structure on the D1 timeframe. A complex structure is forming on the D1 indicating that the uptrend support is under pressure. That is, if this area is broken, there could be momentum in the market through capitulation. Fundamentally, the market is not reacting to the escalated situation in the middle east and eastern Europe, accepting what is happening at the moment. China has promised increased financial support for the economy and this could attract new capital into the gold market. Markets are likely to trade cautiously as they prepare for a series of labor market data from the US later this week. Resistance levels: 2637, 2648, 2664 Support levels: 2615, 2606, 2600 Technically, the price is inside the local ascending channel, but in the selling zone. Due to bearish pressure, the price may head down and test the 2600 area. But where to go from here? The reaction to the 2600 area after the retest will tell us. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
12
XAGUSD - Silver, waiting for the start of the upward trend?!Silver is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the decline continues, we can see a support limit. Stabilization of silver above the resistance range will provide us with the path of silver up to the supply zone, where we can sell in that range with a suitable risk reward. In 2025, it might be wiser to adopt a contrarian approach, as the upcoming year has the potential to be one of the most turbulent, especially in the commodities market. The return of Donald Trump as the President-elect of the United States brings the threat of disrupting global trade flows through the imposition of heavy tariffs on U.S. imports. With a Congress led by Republicans, there seems to be little to restrain him this time. Furthermore, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the economic trajectory of China, the world’s second-largest economy and the biggest buyer of commodities. Historically, the dollar tends to perform strongly in January and February. Interestingly, last month also saw a 2.6% rise in the DXY index, breaking a seven-year streak of December weakness. This performance suggests that macroeconomic factors and expectations around Trump’s policies were strong enough to counteract the usual seasonal drag. As the year begins with a positive phase for the dollar, any shift in the current narrative sustaining the dollar’s strength through the end of the year would require a significant change in economic dynamics. The U.S. dollar started 2025 with a slight dip but quickly resumed its upward trend, as the fundamental drivers of the U.S. economy remain intact. The Federal Reserve, adjusting its projections downward, indicated that there might only be two rate cuts in 2024. This stance has further widened the yield gap between the U.S. and other major economies, as central banks in other regions move towards more accommodative monetary policies. Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve, recently stated that the U.S. economy ended 2024 in good shape, exhibiting solid growth. He noted that the Federal Reserve is likely to take its time before implementing future rate cuts and sees no urgency in this regard. Meanwhile, questions remain about whether inflationary pressures will continue to persist. Kugler also highlighted improvements in productivity and labor supply, which have played a key role in strengthening the economy. He emphasized that the labor market still appears stable, with the current unemployment rate remaining at historically low levels. Even as the labor market cools gradually, real wages remain elevated. Overall, while the labor market is slowly losing heat, it continues to demonstrate resilience. Similarly, the disinflation process is steadily progressing at a consistent pace.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Welcome The New Yearly Candle!We have another yearly candle print, the 2024 candle. It is an especially interesting one due to the US elections and the how the candle printed. In this video I go through analyzing the charts starting with the yearly candle, all the way down to the daily and hourly. I begin on the Dollar Index (DXY) and then have a look at the EURUSD chart, with some intermarket analysis on USDCAD and NZDUSD. So as to make the video not too long, I just demonstrate how I would do my analysis on these pairs. With that framework, you can perform the same analysis on the assets of your choice. Good luck this year and may it be a prosperous trading year for you all! - R2F Trading
by Road_2_Funded
1
USDJPY → Consolidation before continuing growthFX:USDJPY is consolidating after strong growth. A promising dollar and weak japanese central bank policy form a medium-term bullish potential in the currency pair The currency pair returns almost all of the strong fall associated with last year's course of rate cuts in the U.S., rate hikes in Japan and interventions that were actively conducted by the Central Bank of Japan. What was the outcome of all the actions? It was all in vain. The price turned around and almost approached 162.0. At the moment the emphasis is on consolidation, which has been forming for several weeks. We have clear boundaries, trend and strong levels to use in our trading. Resistance levels: 158.1 Support levels: 156.74, 155.88 The trigger for me is the resistance at 158.1. A breakout and price consolidation above this level will be a confirmation that we are ready to move further towards ATH. I do not exclude the fact that now the price may not be let in and the currency pair will form a correction to the consolidation support before further growth Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
2
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 109.64 1st Support: 108 1st Resistance: 110.93 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
2
DXY Continues bullish momentum from 108.600For the DXY, I anticipate a corrective move, as the price has recently broken structure to the upside. This break has created new demand zones, which we can expect to act as strong support, allowing bullish momentum to continue. This week, my focus will be on the 8-hour demand zone around 108.600. If the price mitigates this zone, I’ll look for lower time-frame confirmation to enter a trade. My target will be the 8-hour supply zone above, where I anticipate some bearish pressure may emerge. However, if the price moves lower and breaches the 8-hour demand zone, I’ll shift my attention to the extreme 5-hour demand zone for a potential buying opportunity, aligning with the overall bullish trend. Let’s stay sharp and make the most of this week. Let’s crush Q1!
TVC:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
1
EURUSD 5/1/25Heading into the First Trading Week of the Year We’re ready to dominate as always, with Orion leading the way and providing a clear bias. This week, we continue with our bearish outlook, looking to trade from the highs into the lows outlined here, with the target clearly defined. Before diving in headfirst, let’s cover a few key points: There’s currently a large gap between the highs and the current price. Based on this, we need to be mindful of the following scenarios: A short-term high could form before reaching the main highs shown here. A new low might be created, giving us an additional target low. These scenarios suggest we could see some form of manipulation before a move higher. For example, the price could create new highs, sweep them, and then form a new short-term low. While this wouldn’t invalidate the larger bearish move, it could shake out many lower time frame traders. Please also take note of the heavy liquid we have stored above the current highs we are looking at. Trade safe and stick to your plan.
by PipSurfingSociety
DXY Is Going Up! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 108.922. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 110.143. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
2
GOLD → Retest of the level after its breakoutFX:XAUUSD inside the new flat is looking for strong support. The fundamental backdrop is complex and amid high risks, buyers are looking for a safe haven Fundamentally, the situation is complex, the weakening of gold is influenced only by the hawkish stance of the Fed and the growth of the dollar. But the pressure for further growth is exerted by many other factors: the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Trump's protectionist policies toward europe, asia. Geopolitical risks in the world. Technically, the price is testing a strong support area after breaking through resistance. Below is the key Fibo level of 0.5 - 0.7, which may play the role of the lower boundary from which the bulls will start an aggressive game. Support levels: 2637, 2630, 2616 Resistance levels: 2649, 2665 In general, I am more inclined for a medium-term decline, but the local situation is quite tense and complicated. If the bulls hold 2630 - 2640, the gold will continue to rise If the bulls lose, the price will form a deeper correction with the possibility of further prolongation of the fall. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
15