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Dxyforecast

Dxy- Reversal loomingAs I argued in the start of the year video, I expect a reversal from Usd pairs and a resumption to the long-term bearish trend (bullish DXY). In Dxy's case, I draw attention to the important support that the index is trading in and, as we can see, so far this zone held. Going further, as we can see from the posted chart, since mid-December, the index is trading in a range and we have a strong reversal 2 days ago. Confirmation of reversal comes once the price is breaking above the upper boundary of the range at 104.50 and, in such an instance we can see a medium-term rise to 109 important resistance zone. Sell pairs like EurUsd, GbpUsd, NzdUsd, and AudUsd can be a good trading strategy.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% DXY, 90% Cash. * DEATH CROSS WATCH . Final US Q3 GDP estimate was +3.2%, compared to a decline of -0.6% in Q2 , and was primarily led by upward revisions to exports, nonresidential fixed investments (IP and equipment) and consumer spending. The latest GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate was 3.7% on 10/23 , with the next estimate due on 01/03/23. Russia announced a ban of oil sales to any countries or companies abiding by the $60 price-cap imposed by the G-7 (+ Australia) . North Korea sent 5 reconnaissance drones into South Korea and SK failed to hit any of them in their defensive counter-assault . Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda expressed that the latest BOJ move to allow their 10-year bond yield to rise to 0.5% from 0.25% shouldn't be viewed as an "exit" from their ultra-loose monetary policy and that they maintain a 2% inflation target , although investors are now betting on a higher likelihood of a departure from negative interest rates come next April when Kuroda's second 5-year term comes to end. The Treasury General Account and Reverse Repos seemed to have found a short-term floor and are expected to continue rising, which poses a threat to the Fed balance sheet but a bullish catalyst for US Treasurys, and lesser so for DXY. A continually rising Fed funds rate which is expected to top out at 5.1%-5.2% at the moment also acts as a bearish catalyst for Risk-On markets and bullish for US Treasurys, and lesser so to DXY. A main reason why DXY has been going down recently is due to a bounce in EURUSD, JPYUSD and GBPUSD; along with inflation coming down and a terminal Fed funds rate being anticipated in 2023. Energy, US Equity Futures, DXY, Short-Term US Treasurys, VIX, HSI, N100, EURUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD are up. US Equities, Cryptos, Long-Term US Treasurys, Metals, Agriculture and NI225 are down. Key Upcoming Dates: Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 01/03; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 01/03; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 01/04; December US Employment Situation at 830am 01/06. * Price is currently trending sideways at ~$104 as it nears a retest of the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. The 50MA is currently trending down at $107 as it approaches a seemingly inevitable Death Cross if it is to cross below the 200MA at $106. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $103.85, this margin is bearish at the moment. RSI continues to trend sideways as it tests 39.43 resistance for the ninth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bearish but is on the verge of crossing over bullish just below 86.26 resistance. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing -0.832 resistance with no sign of peak formation at the moment. ADX continues to trend sideways at ~31 for the tenth consecutive session as Price continues to trend in a tight range for the same amount of time as it forms a Symmetrical Triangle, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to breakout here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$108 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY going to perform classic chart pattern and correction I think it is time for DXY to perform another top and confirm it’s double top for a mid term correction, if It falls more than it supply area around 89 then we should see more falling down. But according to overall fundamentals and technical analysis it is not something that we would like to see. Anyway, I think another bull move to 111 is necessary and maybe a bit more than last high (around 114) to face divergence in RSI and then start its falling down correction for more than 4 to 6 months.
TVC:DXYLong
by AtareumFX
DXY- Reversal underway?Since the 115 top at the end of September, the US Dollar index dropped hard with a more than 10% decline from the top to the recent 104 zone bottom. However, the last month's drop from 108 top is contained in a falling wedge which is a warning of reversal. Considering the long-term bullish trend for Usd and 104 very strong support on longer time frames I expect a reversal soon. 108 could be the bull's target with negation in case of a new low. Buy dips slightly above 104 could also have a more than 1:3 R: R for medium-term traders.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
4
The market is still trying to avoid risk?Introduction : - As you know, the $DXY is the index representing the strength of the dollar against a lot of other currencies. - Often used as a representation of capital flows, from RISK ON to RISK OFF, and vice versa. - With the economic conjectures of the moment, the rise in rates, it is normal to see the DXY grow. On the other hand, it has been retracing for some time, which has allowed the markets to breathe a little. Point of view: - The DXY is moving in the range (colored channel), but it rose quickly and needed to breathe, in this zone of action, the direction taken will have an effect on the markets for a few months. - The chart stumbles on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the last movement, so we could have had time to breathe to look for a new peak (materialized by the drawing in red). - Otherwise, see the DXY react slightly on this level and fall to find the bottom of the channel. (Materialized by the green drawing) - The RSI has fallen significantly, after having printed a Divergence Bear on us, and landed around 37.5 Conclusion : - It is important to have both plans in mind, so as not to be taken aback on the market, but only our reactivity thanks to alerts can protect us from risk. - Indeed, only economic announcements, geopolitics, or choices of large institutions can influence this index, so I think that anticipating its movement is not really possible. - But on the contrary, delimiting areas or scenarios as here, with alerts, allows you not to suffer the vagaries of the market and to know how to intervene. - I think that the direction of the DXY is very much to watch on its levels and these more than uncertain times. Voilà une vision plus globale : (It's a Fibonacci retracement, on the last move) Thanks ! Don't hesitate to Follow, putting on your big rocket is always nice, and comment to tell me what you think!
TVC:DXY
by Oudamska
DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash. * FOMC WATCH . US November CPI was estimated to come in at 0.3% but instead came in at 0.1% , compared to October's 0.4% it's fair to say that it eased a bit. Meanwhile Core CPI rose 0.2% in November compared to 0.3% in October. The last FOMC rate hike is expected to be announced tomorrow, though there is still a chance for another 75bps rate hike, the majority of speculators are anticipating 50bps. If they go with 50bps, it's reasonable to expect volatility tomorrow followed by further downside to DXY; however, if they go with 75bps, DXY should see a bit of a reversal in the short/medium-term. In a surprising move which is likely due to national security interests, China banned exports of their Loongson military grade processors to Russia ; Russia had apparently been testing them for a while as opposed to Intel and AMD processors due to Western sanctions. The USA is preparing to send their Patriot Air Defense system to Ukraine in response to Russia continuing to bombard key energy infrastructure as Ukraine approaches their coldest parts of winter. DXY, Cryptos, US Equities, US Equity Futures, JPYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100 and Short-Term US Treasurys are up. While Commodities, GBPUSD, EURUSD, CNYUSD, Long-Term US Treasurys and VIX are down. Key Upcoming Dates: Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; Next GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 12/15; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently attempting to bounce here at $104.06 before retesting the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support for the first time since February 2022. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105.27, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 34, the next resistance is at 39.43 and the next support at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 29.40 support. MACD remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends sideways at -1.21 support; if it breaks below this support level it would be a bearish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 33 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.80.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash. * Oil tankers are reportedly beginning to jam up the Black Sea with 28 tankers waiting to be checked for having proper insurance by Turkish officials . This will likely put upward pressure on the price of oil in the near/medium term. Investors appear to be anticipating a 50bps rate hike by the FOMC on 12/14, which will be their last rate hike announcement until February 1st 2023. Interestingly, investors appear to be equating a slowing in rate hike increases with a lowering of the terminal FFR, which is unlikely to be true; Federal Reserve staff/member consensus is currently projecting a 5%-5.5% terminal funds rate to be achieved by mid-2023, the FFR is currently at 3.75%-4%. So going forward, 50bps on 12/14/22 brings it to 4.25%-4.5%, another hypothetical 50bps on 02/01/23 would bring it to 4.75%-5%, another hypothetical 25bps on 03/16/23 would bring it to 5%-5.25% and then a last hypothetical 25bps on 05/04/23 would bring it to 5.25%-5.5%. This all assumes that Russia doesn't continue to escalate the war and that supply chains reach a newfound stability/order; a somewhat unrealistic assumption at the moment. US Equities, US Equity Futures, US Treasurys, Cryptos, Metals, Natural Gas, Agriculture, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, N100 are up. DXY, VIX, JPYUSD, NI225 and Oil are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently trending down at $104.80 after being rejected by the 200MA at ~$105.80 as resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$105.80, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 36 after being rejected by 39 resistance for the third time since 11/21/22, the next support (minor) is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bullish and is on the verge of crossing over bearish as it trends down at 58 after getting rejected by 67 resistance, if it falls below 56 it would be a bearish crossover; the next support is at 45.65. MACD remains barely bullish for a second consecutive day as it trends sideways just below -1.21 support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and reestablish support at the 200MA (~$105.80) , the next likely target is a retest of $108 resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from May 2021 as support for the first time since February 2022 which would coincide with $103 support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $105.80 .
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
Multi-Year Ascending Scallop on DXYDuring the DXY run-up this past year, I noticed repeated ascending scallop patterns that were continually validated by breakouts. These were often on the 5 to 15 min timeframe, but If you look at the ascent even on the hourly chart, you'll notice the pattern reveals itself repeatedly. If you're a believer in using fractals in your trading strategy, you won't be surprised to see that a clear ascending scallop appears to be developing on the longer time frame. I was initially looking for this pullback to find support at former resistance, but it has possibly regained its support from 2018-20. Given the repeated validations on shorter time frames, I'm looking for a break out above the Sept high (114.778) in early 2023 - if not sooner.
TVC:DXYLong
by moveyoubrightly
DXY Daily TA BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash. *Cryptos and Commodities markets are signaling a bullish open to a week of mute economic data before CPI on 12/13 and the last FFR hike announcement of 2022 on 12/14. More volatility is to be expected with increased supply chain disruptions due to reduced exports from China weighing on Big Tech ( Apple in particular ). While certain major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai are loosening Covid restrictions in effort to quell protests and reinvigorate dampening domestic demand. A price cap imposed by the G7 + Australia on Russian oil took effect today, the $60/barrel price cap applies to any third-party countries who intend to use G7 or EU tankers, insurance companies or credit institutions to ship Russian oil . Russia responded by saying they would cut production while OPEC+ reiterated their commitment to a 2m output reduction until 2023 . This will likely push the price of oil higher. Ukraine has also mentioned that Russia hasn't launched any large missile offensives in the past two weeks and that they are likely gearing up for another significant strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in attempt to break Ukrainian citizens down during the winter. Commodities, Cryptos, US Treasurys, HSI, CNYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are up. DXY, US Equity Futures, N100, NI225 and JPYUSD are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price has broken below the 200MA at $105.57 as support and is currently trending down at $104.22 as it approaches $103.15 support which coincides with the uptrend line from May 2021. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $106.83, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 32, the next support is at 23.34. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down slightly at -1.45 as it breaks below -1.21, the next support is at -1.66. ADX is currently trending up at 30 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$105.60 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $103.15 support which would coincide with the uptrend line from May 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $105.60.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy
Investigating the dollar index in the 4H time frame using ElliotIn my opinion, the dollar index has completed a complete 5-wave in the daily time frame. We are currently in the ABC correction. Wave A is complete. Wave B ended with 3 moves. Wave C consists of 5 waves. In my opinion, now wave 3 out of 5 is completed and we have to wait for the beginning of wave 4 out of 5. Wave 4 consists of 3 big movements. In my opinion, Wave 4 can behave as shown, and if there is a change in my opinion, I will definitely update this analysis.
TVC:DXYLong
by AllMarketAnalysis_Am
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% DXY, 30% Cash. *All markets reacted negatively to news of Chinese citizens protesting the Covid lockdowns in fear of more supply chain disruptions. The Pentagon is currently devising a proposal to send smaller precision bombs that can be fitted onto rockets and allow for Ukraine to strike behind Russian lines as the US and NATO military inventories are dwindling in response to a now 9-month constant bombardment by Russia on Ukraine. Russia's plan to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure to demoralize Ukrainian's during what is expected to be a very cold winter is reminiscent of The Holodomor (Great Famine) under Stalin in 1932-1933 when Russia ignored natural factors and enacted repressive policies that contributed to a massive decline in Ukraine grain and killed 3-5 million people as a result. It appears that Russia is also intentionally exhausting military supplies from NATO countries (US mainly); which could possibly hamper future US intervention during potential future altercations between China and Taiwan. Elon Musk is "waging war" against Apple after Apple decided to suspend advertising and is mulling the idea of removing Twitter from the App Store . Apple takes 30% of all sales within the App Store, so Twitter would only be seeing $5.60 of the $8 iPhone users would pay for a Blue-Check. BlockFi did what everyone expected and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy today . DXY, Short-Term US Treasurys, US Equity Futures, EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, Gold and VIX are up. Long-Term US Treasurys, US Equities, Cryptos, CNYUSD, NI225, HSI, N100, Energy and Agriculture are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29 ; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14. * Price is currently trending up at $106.66 after bouncing off of the 50MA at ~$105.35, the next resistance is at $108. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $108.46, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 40.73 and is still technically testing 39.43 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 38.83 as it approaches a test of 45.65 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -1.28; it's still technically testing -1.21 support and if it can cross above -1.18 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26.85 as Price bounced off a critical support level (the 50MA), this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest $108 resistance . However, if Price falls back down here it will have another chance to formally retest the 50MA at ~$105.35 as support before potentially retesting $103.15 support for the first time since June 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $105.35.
TVC:DXY
by dailytaguy