DXY Bullish again? rally from 102.600 back upOnce price mitigates and retests the daily demand zone I’ve marked out, I’ll be looking for the dollar (DXY) to trigger another bullish move within this point of interest (POI), potentially leading to a rally that could take out another all-time high (ATH).
Upon reaching this daily demand, I’ll focus on finding a lower time frame entry. As price pushes up, taking out the liquidity and filling the imbalance, I’ll be watching for potential short-term sell opportunities from the daily supply zone, which looks like a high-quality area.
Confluences for DXY Bullish Move:
Recent Bullish Momentum: Price has been strongly bullish.
Break of Structure (BOS): A clear BOS to the upside, leaving behind a demand zone.
Liquidity and Imbalance: Liquidity targets and imbalance above, providing room for a rally.
High-Quality Daily Demand: The daily demand zone is strong and has a good potential for a bullish push.
P.S. I wouldn’t be surprised if the daily supply also holds and causes a deep retracement, but we’ll see how the market reacts.
Have a great trading week guys!
Dxyforecast
Hotter-than-Expected CPI Prints: A Potential Catalyst for DXY an
Introduction
The release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is a highly anticipated event in financial markets, often influencing investor sentiment, currency valuations, and risk appetite. A hotter-than-expected CPI print, indicating higher-than-anticipated inflation, has significant implications for monetary policy decisions, particularly interest rate cuts. This article explores how such a scenario could strengthen calls to halt or even reverse rate cuts, potentially bolstering the US Dollar Index (DXY) and leading to increased risk aversion.
Understanding CPI and Its Impact on Monetary Policy
CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which central banks closely monitor to assess the overall health of an economy. When CPI rises above the target inflation rate, it suggests that prices are increasing at a faster pace than desired, potentially eroding purchasing power and destabilizing the economy.
Central banks often use interest rates as a tool to manage inflation. By raising interest rates, they make borrowing more expensive, which can slow down economic activity and reduce demand for goods and services, ultimately putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, lowering interest rates can stimulate economic growth but may also lead to higher inflation if demand outpaces supply.
The Implications of a Hotter-than-Expected CPI Print
If a CPI report comes in hotter than expected, it suggests that inflation is running higher than anticipated. This could lead to increased concerns among central bankers and investors about the potential for inflation to spiral out of control. In response, central banks may feel compelled to pause or even reverse their monetary easing policies.
The prospect of higher interest rates can have a significant impact on financial markets. When central banks raise interest rates, it often leads to a stronger domestic currency relative to other currencies. This is because higher interest rates make the domestic currency more attractive to investors seeking higher returns on their investments.
In the case of the US Dollar, a stronger DXY can have implications for global financial markets. A stronger dollar can make imports cheaper for US consumers but can also make exports more expensive for US businesses, potentially hurting economic growth. Additionally, a stronger dollar can put downward pressure on commodity prices, which can impact the profitability of commodity-producing countries and industries.
The Potential Impact on Risk Aversion
A hotter-than-expected CPI print and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy can also lead to increased risk aversion among investors. When investors become more cautious about the outlook for the economy, they may be less willing to take on riskier investments, such as stocks and emerging market bonds. This can lead to a sell-off in these asset classes, as investors seek to shift their portfolios to safer, more liquid assets like US Treasury bonds.
Conclusion
A hotter-than-expected CPI print can have significant implications for financial markets, particularly if it leads to a change in monetary policy. By strengthening calls to halt or reverse rate cuts, such a scenario could bolster the US Dollar Index and increase risk aversion. Investors should closely monitor CPI releases and their potential impact on central bank decisions and market sentiment.
DXY (Dollar Index) Technical Analysis and Day Trade Idea👀 👉 The DXY (Dollar Index) recently shifted into a bullish structure on the 4H timeframe, with price now approaching a key resistance level. This could present a potential short day trade opportunity. In this video, we analyse the DXY in detail, reviewing the trend, market structure, and price action, while exploring a possible trade setup. Disclaimer: Forex trading carries significant risk, and market conditions can change rapidly. The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. 📉✅
Dollar bulls are strong hereIt has now been exactly a month since the DXY dropped to its price at the start of the year, which also serves as a technical support level. The price has bounced back from this zone twice but has failed to break above the 102 resistance, falling back each time.
However, each time the bears attempted a decisive break downward, the bulls stepped in and pushed the price back up. Although the price did dip below the support zone on two occasions, these breaks were minor (around 0.2%) and did not qualify as significant.
Yesterday, the price once again reversed strongly from this well-established support zone. It seems as though the bulls are waiting for a catalyst to trigger a true reversal.
I anticipate that the USD will strengthen in the coming days and weeks.
A break above the 102 resistance would confirm a bottom and open the path for further gains, with 104 as the next target.
DXY continuation move expected**Monthly Chart**
Last month's DXY candle closed as bearish after a strong push down breaking the previous monthly range. This month's candle (which is still active) went lower and took out the low of Dec 2023. Currently, it is testing the low of July 2023 and MC (OB) area.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week, the candle closed as a bearish indecision candle after taking out the liquidity below the 26th of December 2023. DXY is currently in the demand zone and testing weekly Manipulation candles for July 2023.
**Daily Chart**
DXY overall trend is still bearish. The next target is around 99.50 which is the low of July 2023. I would like to see DXY continue its move lower to at least break the low of July 2023 before it moves higher.
DXY Its about DXY in a high timeframe analysis. the price is currently at a critical daily level and is indicating signs of potential rejection from this level.
Considering this analysis, here are some key points to take into account:
1. **Critical Daily Level**: is significant as it may act as a strong support or resistance point for the DXY.
2. **Rejection Signal**: The signal showing a potential rejection from this level implies that there could be a shift in momentum or a reversal in the price movement.
3. **Confirmation**: It's essential to seek confirmation from other technical indicators, price action patterns, or fundamental factors to validate the potential rejection and strengthen your analysis.
4. **Risk Management**: Implementing risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders, is crucial to protect against adverse price movements in case the rejection signal does not play out as anticipated.
5. **Market Monitoring**: Stay updated on economic data releases, geopolitical events, and other factors that could impact the US dollar to make well-informed trading decisions.
By considering these factors and conducting thorough analysis, you can better navigate the market dynamics surrounding the US Dollar Currency Index in high timeframes. If you need further assistance or more detailed insights, feel free to ask.
#DXY 4H On the 4-hour chart (4H) of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), the price is currently in a downtrend, indicating a strong sell opportunity.
Sell Levels: 101.200 - 101.500
The price has reached a potential selling zone between 101.200 and 101.500, which is acting as a resistance range in the current bearish trend. This is a strategic area to consider short positions as the market may struggle to break above this level.
Target Level: 99.500
The expected downside target for this move is around 99.500, a key support area where the price might find some buying interest or consolidation after the bearish move.
Key Factors:
Downtrend: Lower highs and lower lows dominate the price action.
Resistance: The price faces strong selling pressure near 101.200-101.500.
Momentum: Indicators like RSI and moving averages suggest the trend is firmly bearish, with room to fall toward the 99.500 support.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for short entries near the 101.200-101.500 range.
Target: Aim for the 99.500 level as the profit target.
Stop-loss: Consider placing a stop-loss above 101.500 to manage risk effectively.
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in line with the ongoing downtrend.
DXY's Trend in Question: Support Holding, But Bulls need 102In my Friday analysis, I mentioned that if the DXY drops below the support zone, defined by the recent low and the year's starting price, we could expect further downside.
Initially, following the release of the NFP data, the price did decline, but it quickly reversed after reaching the support level, forming a strong bullish reversal candle with a long tail on the chart.
While we can't confirm a trend reversal yet and USD bulls are still not in out of the woods, as long as this support holds, there is a strong possibility of a move to the upside.
For a clearer medium-term outlook, we need a break above the 102 level.
If this happens, the path to 104 should open up, and we can expect the price to rise toward that zone.
DXY (Dollar) Shorts from 101.600 back downMy outlook for the dollar is focused on scouting a bearish continuation. A 7-hour supply zone has emerged, and I'm looking for the price to enter this zone to trigger a bearish reaction, potentially creating a new leg to the downside.
If the supply zone is broken, I would then anticipate the price rallying higher into a more premium supply area. However, if the price heads down first, I expect the 9-hour demand zone to be violated, allowing for a better buying opportunity from the lower demand zone.
P.S.: Be cautious and trade with care, as PPI and CPI data are due this week. Keep an eye on Forex Factory for updates.
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$ RATE CUT IN THE AIR, WILL IT BOUNCE BEFORE THE DESCENT?The recent decline in the U.S. dollar can be attributed to several economic factors. Firstly, recent inflation data indicates that inflation in the United States is slowing down. The annual inflation rate for June 2024 was 3.0%, down from previous months. This slowdown has strengthened expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Investors now anticipate a rate cut in September, possibly followed by another cut in November or December, which tends to weaken a country's currency.
Despite positive data from the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2024, the dollar continued to fall. The PPI showed a 0.1% year-over-year increase, with a 0.1% rise in goods and a 0.2% rise in services, both better than analysts' expectations.
The critical question now is whether the dollar will rebound before further declines. We are in a crucial zone, and a short-term rise might occur before any further drop, but much depends on Powell's speech scheduled for Monday. If the Federal Reserve Chair hints at a rate cut in September, the dollar could take another hit. Conversely, if Powell does not confirm this expectation, the dollar might benefit from the positive PPI data and rise temporarily.
Be careful!
Navigating Critical Market Levels: DXY & NAS100 Analysis👀 👉 The DXY and NAS100 are currently at pivotal points, with price action flashing caution signals. The DXY is probing key liquidity levels, while both DXY and NAS100 are showing signs of structural shifts in their trends. It could be prudent to approach the market cautiously today, waiting to see how the USD develops during the New York session and into Tuesday.
Disclaimer: The insights shared in this video are for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis or consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. 📊✅