Could this be the fall of the Dollar???The dollar is about to break the last significant structure on the monthly time frame. We have seen the dollar dropping over the last few months after its reaction from the last swing high.
Market structure shows price creating lower lows and lower highs which are confirmed by endless BOS. We can see a clear 11min OB has been left from the last low that price created once it tapped into the 18h demand which may allow us a buying opportunity to buy the dollar up to the 1h supply where we will continue to see it fall to it's untimely demise.
previous price action from this 18H however, didn't create much movement despite the fact it also took ASL liquidity possibly suggesting buying power in the market has no strength what so ever. We have to also consider the possibility price may not even be able to push back up but rather fall targeting the Asian lows as this would be considered a magnet for price movement.
Dxyshort!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#DXY 4H On the 4-hour chart (4H) of DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), the price is currently in a downtrend, indicating a strong sell opportunity.
Sell Levels: 101.200 - 101.500
The price has reached a potential selling zone between 101.200 and 101.500, which is acting as a resistance range in the current bearish trend. This is a strategic area to consider short positions as the market may struggle to break above this level.
Target Level: 99.500
The expected downside target for this move is around 99.500, a key support area where the price might find some buying interest or consolidation after the bearish move.
Key Factors:
Downtrend: Lower highs and lower lows dominate the price action.
Resistance: The price faces strong selling pressure near 101.200-101.500.
Momentum: Indicators like RSI and moving averages suggest the trend is firmly bearish, with room to fall toward the 99.500 support.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for short entries near the 101.200-101.500 range.
Target: Aim for the 99.500 level as the profit target.
Stop-loss: Consider placing a stop-loss above 101.500 to manage risk effectively.
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in line with the ongoing downtrend.
Still Bearish on DXYDXY can see some correction to the upside and reach 102.5 or even climb up to 103.5 before September 18, 2024, which, most probably we'll see the first rate cut after a long time.
So be patient and wait for this week's NFP.
Check out my post on June 11 to see how DXY followed our yellow scenario. 😉
$DXY | SilverEdge Insights |Technical Confluences:
Price action is in Oversold conditions in the Daily and Weekly Timeframe. Likely to see some consolidation of positioning here.
Price action broke out of an Upward Sloping Parallel Channel and cleared itself out of the that Interest Zone too. Likely will see a test to re-enter that Channel due to Oversold conditions.
Elliot wave count shows it is trying to compete Wave C (expected target would be to 71% Fibo Extension levels - possible to test the 100% Fibo level)
A new Downward Sloping Parallel Channel is in play now and Price action needs to see it break the mid of the Channel to see a substantial move downwards
Fundamental Confluences:
With the expected cuts, market started unwinding their long USD positions and it is reflected in the TVC:DXY
The extent of Wave C will really depend on how quick and reactive is the FED in cutting rates (the higher chances of 50bps cuts; the likelier we will see USD get sold.
Building into next week, we are likely to see some traders cover their short USD positions as they size down before NFP data.
However, if there is any gyration on the geopolitical front or US elections, it is possible to see the TVC:DXY reverse back to the top of the Downward Sloping Parallel Channel and top out at the Interest Zone area again
DXY is under 102.00 what now?(08/20/2024)DXY finally hit our target under the 102.00 zone.
Since 1 August, DXY has dropped continuously. Right now we are looking for a reversal pattern near the 101.4-101.8 zone.
our view has been negated if the price breaks below the 100.650.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
DXY is moving lower**Monthly Chart**
DXY monthly candle closed as bullish. This month's candle (still active) reached the supply zone last week around the 106 level and bounced lower from it.
Note: I don’t trade DXY but I use it as an indication when analyzing other currency pairs linked to USD.
**Weekly Chart**
Last week's candle closed as a bearish engulfing suggesting a reverse trend lower at least to test the demand zone around the 104 level and then moving lower to the 103 level.
**Daily Chart**
This week, DXY is expected to have a corrective wave structure and consolidate before continuing the downward movement. There will be a release of monthly and yearly CPI on Thursday which can provide some strength to USD.
8.14 USD Trend AnalysisCPI is lower than expected, gold falls off a cliff, can the US dollar survive the desperate situation?
Today, the US seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for the end of July was lower than expected. With gold and silver slightly bullish, gold price fell from a high of 2474 to 2050, a drop of 24 US dollars.
Everyone knows that if gold price falls, the US dollar will rise. Gold price currently lacks momentum. The war in the Middle East is still unclear. It may continue to fall. Will there be new entry opportunities for the US dollar?
What do you think of this view? Welcome to comment below
US dollar market trendYesterday, the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan said that "the market is unstable and there will be no interest rate hikes". This is a relatively "dovish" statement. In addition, the upcoming September interest rate cut conveys a good opportunity to enter the market.
That is, the US dollar will still fall. Although the market is narrow today, the US dollar continued to rise at the end of the trading day, but it should not last long.
Personal analysis: looking for high points and shorting
Looking for reversal in DXY under 102.2 zone(8/5/2024)In our last analysis, our prediction played well, the DXY corrected to 103.7, and after NFP data reached 102.7.
With the fear of recession and NFP data, We are expecting DXY to retest the 102 zones.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing.
Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
The collapse of US stocks across the board, is this a sign of a 8.2 US stocks collectively plunged
Qualcomm fell 9%
Nvidia fell 6%
Tesla 6%
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 8%
Intel fell short of expectations
Is the above directly related to the news of interest rate cuts in September?
The answer is "YES"
What do you think of this comment area? Welcome to comment
Will the dollar continue to fall?Market trends and analyst Ang Kar Yong, according to the CME Fed watch Tool, the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 100%. Overall, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. If the July non-farm report is lower than market expectations, the unemployment rate rises and/or average income growth slows, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates more than twice before the end of the year will increase.
This will undoubtedly bring additional bearish pressure to the US dollar index.
DXY Q3 bearish bias confirmed. Quarterly: Based on the Quarterly theory this is Q3 of this year 24, & Q2 was the manipulation of this year, which has been formed upside, So the Q3-Destribution the price will go down whole August-September 2024,
Draw on Liquidity: If I draw a FIB from the last year low to this year high the OTE Level is around 102-389 to 101.917. levels. So we will check any monthly PDA in this levels for the DOL, for the price.
Weekly: As there was 2 W-FVG- 's bellow the PQM level's so POI of price revarsal was that 2 W-FVG- 's for revarsal.
Now before the NFP Day, there are a possible W-SMT has been forming, So this confirmed me that the price is giving us a sign of revarsal. We need h4 confirmation for that to be more clear.
H4: In this H4 the price has formed a bearish H4-Breaker/Unicorn formation, which is a strong sign of revarsal, in a W level of POI, which gives me farther confirmation that in the up coming week the price will move lower.
So when all this 4 analogy
1. Quarterly Q3, Bearish analogy,
2. W-FVG- as a resistance,
3. H4-Bearish Breaker,
4. W-SMT in W-FVG-
When placed all to-gather in the chart, it gave me a confirmation that the DXY is going down up coming 2 months.
US economic recovery, good news for the global economyDXY: The USD index last week maintained an accumulation status around the 104.10-104.50 range and has not broken out yet. It is likely that the market will need information from this week's FOMC to have clearer trends. In the short term, it is expected that today, DXY will continue to accumulate around this price range, so you can consider buying USD when DXY retests 104.10.
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On July 25, the US Department of Commerce released a report showing that the world's largest economy grew by 2.8% in the period from April to June 2024 (twice as high as the previous quarter).
This growth is considered solid, as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation control measures seem to be effective.
Inflation, one of the key factors influencing the Fed’s monetary policy, is showing signs of cooling. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.2% in June, down from a peak of 9.1% last year. This development is believed to be the result of the Fed’s continuous interest rate hikes over the past year.
DXY declined when Biden withdrew from the White HouseDXY: The USD index in today's session has reacted to a decrease and correction right after the information last weekend. Showing a bearish outlook in the context of Biden's withdrawal from the white house. The scenario in today's trading session is that DXY is expected to continue to weaken. Ace, please consider selling with USD
US President Joe Biden introduced the stop of his re-election marketing campaign on July 21 (US time) and nominated Vice President Kamala Harris to update him because the Democratic presidential candidate.
In the assertion on
This week, he's scheduled to present a public speech.
Being your president is the greatest honor of my life. Although I intend to run for re-election, I believe that for the best interests of my party and the country, I should stop and only focus on completing my presidential duties," Mr. Biden wrote.
A few minutes after the above message, he wrote another message supporting Ms. Harris. "I chose Ms. Kamala Harris as my vice presidential candidate in the 2020 race. And it was the best decision I made," he continued.
US stocks and bond yields increased sharplyLong-time period U.S. bond yields rose on expectancies that Trump`s rules could boom authorities debt and inflation, at the same time as cryptocurrency shares additionally rose together with Bitcoin. Trump has delivered himself as a cryptocurrency advocate.
Investors say a Trump victory may want to imply greater tax cuts and a greater comfortable regulatory environment. The S&P 500's strength region rose 1.6%.
Impact from assassination and hobby rates
On making a bet web website online PredictIt, the agreement for a Trump victory become buying and selling at sixty eight cents, up from 60 cents on Friday, with a capacity agreement of $1. Contracts for a Biden victory had been at 26 cents.
The assassination in Pennsylvania on Saturday of Trump regarded to enhance his election chances. The 20-year-antique attacker's reasons continue to be a mystery, with the suspect killed and the FBI not able to decide the intentions in the back of the attack.
“The marketing and marketing round this occasion is offering a boost,” stated Josh Wein, portfolio supervisor at Hennessy Funds. “But in latest days the inventory marketplace has increased. So that is a continuation of a sturdy rally from the second one 1/2 of of remaining week while we found out that there has been purpose to rejoice the concept that there might be one and now probably price cuts in stop of the year."