DXY - Long term | Market outlookInvestors focus on further actions of the US Federal Reserve in the field of monetary policy. Most experts believe that in May, the regulator will raise the interest rate above 5.0%, after which it will keep it at this level, and by the end of the year, it may begin to reduce the cost of borrowing again. Under the conditions, the comments of American officials are of particular interest. Thus, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Atlanta, Rafael Bostic, noted that it is necessary to increase the rate again, after which it is worth stopping and assessing how quickly inflation returns to the target levels. The official added that the US economy remains strong, price increases are high, and there is a lot of work to be done in the fight against it. St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, in an interview with Reuters, confirmed that monetary policy tightening could continue amid the release of recent economic data, as inflation is not declining and economic recovery is slow.
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DXYCurrently, tracking the USDX (US Dollar Index) has become more enjoyable than ever before. Upon further examination, I have come to the conclusion that the DXY has reached its peak and is now in a phase of aggressive decline, beginning from the level of supply that I have identified, or potentially even worse from the fair value gap (FVG). I will continue to keep you updated on any changes regarding this matter.
DXY - Tool to assess Risk on/ Risk off scenariosHi guys. Welcome to my TA analysis on the dollar index. ALot of talk has been going on about whether or not we are in a bull market for bitcoin and if equities will rally further or not. In order to assess or determine if its likely that we are, the dollar is used by many analysts to gauge at what the sentiment is, whether "RISK ON" or "RISK OFF". As such i also have come to analyze and use DXY as such a tool.
RISK ON = When dollar is decreasing in price, other assets tend to go up. ( Hence we hear people mention "oh, the dollar is inversely related to stocks, crypto)
RISK OFF = sentiment is scared to invest and people flock to the safety of cash/dollar, Increasing the value of the dollar and prices of other assets decrease in price
With that lets look into what i see in the charts for DXY.
This analysis is done on the 2 day timeframe.
I've zoomed out to include about 17 years of data.
So PRICE ACTION
As you can see its interacting with the Red line that is drawn on chart. This is the 200 Day Moving Average. If you look left at all the examples i put up, everytime price action goes down we are below this line for atleast 100 days to as long as couple of years. WE also decline between 2% to as much as 20%.
The 2 recent times, we were under it for 380 days and 488 days with price dropping further down. Ofcourse our current price action doesnt have to do this but because it occured previously it is not out of the question.
At the least expect sideways action, which is also not a bad thing for RISK ON mentality.
BUT as of now we have CONFIRMED below the 200 dma on the 2 day timeframe. I expect the dollar to drop more in the intermediate to longer term of atleast 3 months to a 1 year even. The longer the dollar stays below, the stronger RISK ON mentality gets. This would validate the recent Crypto uptrend and may push equities, housing and others up too.
To further support my thesis, check out the 2 indicators i put up
1. RSI - I believe we have further sell off on the RSI and im expecting it to do below the 20 level, as it did in the examples i circled with white. Also notice the white horizontal resistance line i drew. As long as we stay below here, it validates my thesis of dollar staying down. Im expecting atleast 1 touch point near or below the 20 level. RSI is a close indicator of price action, when it points down, price usually follows and vice versa.
2. ADX and DI - Ths tracks momentum. As highlighted red line is crossing up, indicating bearish momentum to pick up. When price action is below the 200 dma and a bearish cross occurs we usually go down in price.
CONCLUSION: With everything mentioned, in my opinion i believe DXY to go down further in price, it staying in a downtrend for atleast 3 months to 1 year. Supporting the idea that maybe we are in the beginning stages of a crypto bull market and we may see equities rally more.
Thanks for tuning in. Hope this helped. If you like the content, please BOOST, COMMENT and FOLLOW. Check out my other charts on DXY. If you liked what you read, i also do potential buy/sell analysis on stock/ cryptos.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Everything expressed in my posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading please do manage your risk and protect yourselves with stop losses.
2023 tradingdesk for the dollarHi Traders.
From now i will have one main idea, and all the ideas as we reach cycle targets for the year will be updated in the thread.
Fallow, like so you dont miss the updates.
I dont trade short term, keep in mind my ideas are longer term, and its boring.
We wait for the cycles to bottom and we wait once in the trade for the trade to mature.
DXY AT IMPORTANT RANGEHello friends, today Jerome Powell indicated that they should increase interest rates further more, they said same thing last month but it didn't give much strength enough to DXY enough, so I expect such a move which I have indicated in the chart... and J Powell speech indicates that there's loads of supply of US dollar in the market, and to make US Dollar strong, they should lower down the dollar note printing... and they have to lower the supply of US Dollar.... this indicates that US dollar supply is high, which means collapse of DXY... and I expect US dollar crash anytime soon, and I predict that it may happen after NFP report on 10 March...
Hope y'all wellness....
DXY NEW WEEKLY OUTLOOKOn the 4th of April, price made a significant move on dollar, price broke to the downside sharply cause XAUUSD to fly over 500 pips.. since then we have been on a pullback, this does not mean price is now bullish, it is just a retest and i am still selling dollar... next week will be fire the way i am seeing it, watch out for price action.. I will be selling dollar and Buying GOLD, target should be around 2050.. be prepared.. its good friday today, enjoy your Easter, see y'all next week.
DXY : Short Trade , 1hHello traders, we want to check the DXY chart in the 1-hour time frame. The price is moving in a downward channel and after breaking the key level of 101.900, it has pulled back to this level. We expect this level to act as a resistance level for us. Play and maintain the downward trend of the price and drop to the next key level around the price of 100,900. Good luck.
#DXY- BUY XXXUSD to catch Big Moves!!Dear Traders, following yesterday data on NFP we have now identified that USD pairs will be bullish for longer time as fear of recession has risen again, from negative NFP to increasing tax on Capital gains, everything indicating towards a negative DXY; we also have CPI next week which will be interesting and important for the investors and traders. It will be better to leave USD pairs alone on Monday where we will have a better understanding of the price action.
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DXY FALL INCOMING! xxxUSD to SPACEDXY us currently BEARISH and we are only look for SHORTS here.
How does this help us trade the market?
RULE - DXY goes DOWN, xxxUSD go UP
CHEATSHEET - Your xxxUSD trades will not move if DXY isn't ready for that big impulse legs
I make sure when I take SUD trades that day is in full support of the direction am taking.
I won't get in on any new xxUSD LONG if DXY hasn't reached the UB (Upper Band ) on the H4.
We already have the EMA CLOUD, so every UB will be a badass impulse trigger (Learn the HOOD SUITE SYSTEM)
I will be on full throttle LONG on xxxUSD (check for NOTIFICATIONS to see which of the USD pairs we will be attacking) when DXY reaches the UB on H4 as the next impulse leg should kick in from there.
INVALIDATION - IF we get a close on the PREV HIGH level then we will chart a course for the next move when that happens.
P.S I will post money making trades like this everyday and everything you see on my chart is
from the HOOD SUITE INDICATORS, everything you need is right in front on you inside the indicator.
(The key zones, Levels for manipulation, visible SL for invalidation, Alert when trade setup is ready).
No trend lines or complicated analysis, all you have to do is FOLLOW!
Is DXY tracing out a H&S top?Looking at a chart of the DXY it appears to be working on forming a head and shoulders top. Pattern is not complete until it breaks through the neckline, but the formation can clearly be seen and is currently working on the right shoulder. Should the pattern complete it targets a measured move to 87.75. I'll leave you to make your own conclusions as to what this means for risk assets.
DXY WEAKNESS! xxxUSD LONG Rally coming!// THE DIRECTION //
DXY is currently looking weak here. (Reason - PA, EMA Cloud, SUITE B, BL, Below PW.5 and anticipating a retest for the next fall )
The best way to trade xxxUSD is to understand what DXY is doing.
IF DXY falls, xxxUSD rally up and right now we are about to have just that and we expect this to drop all the way down to PML (Previous Monthly Low)
// INVALIDATION //
Invalidation here would be DXY breaking the previous high @ 103.350.
Brace yourselves, the rally will happen.
Keep your eye out for my xxxUSD idea next.
P.S I will post money making trades like this everyday and everything you see on my chart is
from the HOOD SUITE INDICATORS, everything you need is right in front on you inside the indicator.
(The key zones, Levels for manipulation, visible SL for invalidation, Alert when trade setup is ready).
No trend lines or complicated analysis, all you have to do is FOLLOW!