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Economic Cycles

EXPECTED BUYING IMPORTANT LEVELS FOR THE YEARHey Folks! All the important levels are marked along with the description. I have introduced My new concept of "Time Probability" in this chart which is marked with "YELLOW CIRCLE". In simple words expecting a reversal or a breakout when the stock is in the "YELLOW CIRCEL" . These levels are marked for expected Uptrend. Strategy is simple. Entry point is the buying area . Stoploss is the yellow line. Targets are the upper green lines. Club these levels with your analysis to have an edge.
NSE:EXIDEINDLong
by prachitv1
Tracking the inversion of the yield curve US02Y - US10YThe inversion of the yield curve often serves as a reliable indicator, suggesting an impending increase in the likelihood of both recession and market downturns in the foreseeable future To track this inversion effectively, you can subtracting the interest rates of the 2-year US government bonds from those of the 10-year bonds TVC:US02Y - TVC:US10Y When this calculation yields a result above 0 percent, it indicates an inversion in the 2-year versus 10-year interest rates In 2022, when the current inversion of the yield curve began, the “experts” were constantly warning us of an immediate recession and market crash However, historical data reveals that significant market corrections typically materialize many months, if not years, following the yield curve inversion The upper chart depicting US02Y-US10Y, the black 0 line serves as a reference point. Meanwhile, the lower chart illustrates the drawdown of the S&P 500 SP:SPX in the last 35 years The picture shows that each time there was a drawdown of at least 15% after the end of the inversion of the yield curve The dashed blue lines represent the end of the inversion, indicating that a larger drawdown is more likely after the end of the yield curve inversion and not during the inversion I'll be diligently monitoring the current inversion once again. A breach below 0% would warrant a considerably more cautious approach to the markets Admittedly, such correlations aren't infallible, and their fruition can sometimes span several years Nevertheless, they hold merit from a cyclical perspective Should the inversion of the yield curve cease to be inverted around 2025, a recession and market correction following the 18.6-year real estate cycle would become increasingly likely This would also align with the anticipated correction in the crypto market, typically occurring within a 4-year cycle
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
1
GME, Potential Bull MarketGME is getting a double bottom on the higher timeframes, Similarly to the previous bull run that lead to a 4,500%+ run. I have the measure move slightly below the last ATH. with a Gold Pocket around $78-$81 Things to consider With the recent pump of 78% since it's recent local bottom, it may or may not be a good idea to enter, It's at a really strong resistance, Volume is lower that previous candles these sizes. It may pull back 15%-40% before continuing, if continuing. Thank you.
NYSE:GMELong
by CryptoQueerLLC
1
Bitcoin trend for Cycle-Top prediction.I noticed a trend that kept repeating in every cycle with high accuracy. There seems to be a support trend-line during bull markets, and if we extend this line to the next cycle, it always predicts where Bitcoin will top (By the end of the cycle). Assuming this cycle ends in November 2025, Bitcoin peak between $250,000 and $270.000. I also acknowledge that the Bitcoin ETFs might affect this trend and Bitcoin could top at a much higher price level.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ramiknfr
6
HBAR/USDT The main trend (the whole trading history). Pivot zoneLogarithm. The time frame is 1 week. An idea for understanding the underlying trend and cycles. The coin is the 30th most capitalized coin according to coinmarketcap as of September 9 (9 11), 2023. The large time interval and long history of the chart shows not only the cyclicality of the past, but also the more likely future. This idea makes it clear how important for the market (not only for this cryptocurrency) this time zone is, which will determine the further development of the long-term trend. Many for some reason consider a separate altcoin separately from the whole market and are sure that its trend should be different from the general direction of the market (stock, bitcoin), this is an extremely wrong approach. It is worth noting that quite a few large wallets of this cryptocurrency have been created over the past few months. Whether people accumulating this asset will be right or wrong, only time will tell. Everything will be decided in the coming months. Line chart.
by SpartaBTC
17
BTC Potential Continuation Looking at BTC 12H chart here. As you can see on the way up, so far, we had one pullback into the 200MAs (purple and red). Price reacted well there and bounced and continued. We are seeing the same behavior so far here. Keep eyes on the 12H chart. If we can stay above the 200ma and 200sma, and close inside the white 100ma, we should see price continue to upside. BULL MODE ON! If we reject, and so not close 12H inside teh white 100ma, we are likely to see hard reversal back into the 200s. If they break, I think we see price back in between 48k and 53k. (This scenario, ALTS get hit harder, and this accumulation phase continues for longer) ***NEW 9WEEK AND NEW 3DAY CANDLES MONDAY, WILL WATCH FOR REACTIONS THANKS FOR YOUR TIME!! PLEASE LIKE FOLLOW AND SHARE!!! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, JUST MY 2CENTS!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Cosmicbag
Many Ways to Skin a Cat: Tailoring Risk Management The trading world is a diverse ecosystem, teeming with individuals seeking their own slice of the financial pie. Just like there's "more than one way to skin a cat," there are numerous trading styles, each with its unique approach to risk management. Let's delve into three common styles and how they navigate the inherent risks of the market: 1. The Swing Trader: Patience and Measured Risk Trading Style: Swing traders hold positions for days, weeks, or even months, capitalizing on broader market trends. They analyze charts to identify potential turning points and aim to capture mid-term price movements. Risk Management: Swing traders generally have a moderate risk tolerance. They typically: Employ position sizing strategies, allocating a specific percentage of their capital to each trade. Utilize stop-loss orders to automatically exit positions if the price falls below a predetermined threshold, limiting potential losses. Focus on risk-reward ratios, ensuring the potential profit outweighs the potential loss for each trade. Pros: Requires less active monitoring compared to day trading. Can potentially capture larger profits from sustained trends. Cons: Slower potential for accumulating profits compared to shorter-term trading styles. Requires patience and the ability to withstand temporary price fluctuations. 2. The Day Trader: In and Out, Embracing Short-Term Volatility Trading Style: Day traders are the adrenaline junkies of the trading world, entering and exiting positions within a single trading day. They capitalize on short-term price movements and market inefficiencies. Risk Management: Day traders often have a higher risk tolerance due to the frequent nature of their trades. They: Emphasize strict stop-loss discipline to manage potential losses quickly. May utilize leverage (borrowed capital) to amplify potential gains, but this significantly increases the risk of larger losses. Focus on managing their emotional state, as rapid price movements can lead to impulsive decisions. Pros: Potential for quicker profits due to the high number of trades. Greater control over individual trades and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Cons: Requires significant time commitment and constant monitoring of markets. Highly susceptible to emotional trading due to the fast-paced nature. Amplified risk of losses due to the potential use of leverage. 3. The Leverage Trader: Magnifying Gains (and Losses) Trading Style: Leverage trading involves using borrowed capital to magnify potential profits. This can be done through margin accounts in traditional markets or through derivative instruments like options contracts. Risk Management: Leverage trading demands the utmost caution and sophisticated risk management strategies. Here's why: Losses are also magnified, meaning a small price movement against the trader's position can lead to significant capital depletion. Margin calls can force traders to sell assets abruptly to cover losses, potentially at unfavorable prices. Deep understanding of leverage mechanics and the ability to manage emotions are crucial. Pros: Potential for exponential gains with smaller initial capital. Cons: Extreme risk of catastrophic losses exceeding initial investment. Not suitable for beginners or traders with weak risk management skills. Requires a high level of financial discipline and emotional control. Remember: Regardless of your chosen trading style, effective risk management is the cornerstone of long-term success. Always prioritize capital preservation, understand your risk tolerance, and never gamble with more than you can afford to lose.
Education
by ParabolicP
2
ETHUSD MAY HAVE COMPLETED ITS CORRECTIONS AND READY FOR RALLY!Ethereum has been in corrective wave since March and with the formation of daily double bottom in a bullish wedge, the cryptocurrency may have completed its corrections and ready for upside rally above the upper channel of its wedge. N.B! - ETHUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #ethusd #crypto #btcusd Follow us for more insights on brilliant market setup!
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by BullBearMkt
DIS Testing Fundamental SupportWhen Americans feel depressed or unhappy about life, they tend to spend more money on fun things--something to consider during a presidential election year. For now, NYSE:DIS is looking fine for its earnings report next week. It was over-speculated, so adjusting back down closer to fundamental support is normal. The gap up in February was on way better than expected earnings, so that level should hold up well. However, HFTs and MEME groups have been going gaga over earnings and other news. If HFTs or MEMEs drive it down, it will move right back up due to Dark Pool activity first, and then pro trader activity.
NYSE:DIS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Brent stopped out and Drawdown increasingIn this live trading session video,we look at the BRTUSD trade that got recently stopped out for a small loss on the 100k traders challenge account. We also look closely at the drawdown and why this is happening according to the strategy characteristics on both 50% OE and 20% OE strategy. Finally, we explore on what we should do about this by looking at 3 different options. The concepts and ideas in this video can be cross transferred onto any strategy.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENT
by masterthemarkets2010
Stablecoin Dominance Tipping PointI see two possible scenarios playing out: The Bullish Scenario The dominance goes lower and respects the current downtrend. This could either bounce off roughly 6% (this area has seen some interesting patterns in the chart) or just continue collapsing down. This would be bullish depending on if we don't have much trouble clearing the 5.8-6% range. The Bearish Scenario We break the current downtrend by going up to 7.5% or above in the next 2-3 weeks, at which point I think that worst case we would test somewhere around 8.15%. This would be short to slightly medium-term bearish at the worst in my opinion. I lean towards the bull case simply because markets are usually boring or choppy the month or so after the Bitcoin halving event; things usually ramp up after. We've dumped over 20% in BTC and altcoins got flushed aggressively while not establishing lower local lows at the same time as BTC did recently. Despite being bullish, it's definitely at a tipping point where if it goes up by a bit more then it's a cause for concern. This is a good chart to watch closely for the next 1-3 weeks as evidence of more incoming corrections for a few more weeks or as evidence of the bullish trend resuming.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by houseofcarle
How Will Gold React To Non-Farm Payroll Reports Today?Gold now in a bullish wedge correction, will gold's price rise towards resistance 1 (R1) and then pullback or to R2 at NFP reports later today. Alternatively, the price of the metal could dip towards the lower channel of the bullish wedge immediately after the NFP news. N.B! - XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #gold #xauusd
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BullBearMkt
XBI the ETF for Biotechnology LONGBiotechnology is expected to be a hot subsector this year as healthcare recovered further from the COVID pandemic anything from startups to big pharma- from vaccines to new drugs for diabetes, liver disease and obesity. This is shown on a weekly chart to show the long term trend with XBI pivoting to bullish back in early November. I add long positions when I see a dip on the 3-4hr chart. My targets are the fib retracement expectation at 116 confluent with the first upper VWAP band line and then the 135-138 zone underneath the second upper line shown in thin red on the chart. This ETF smooths out the volatility characteristic of some of the smaller biotechnology firms making it safer albeit with lesser rewards expectations. Positions in NVAX and MRNA are having a good start to the week and will reflect in a small way in this ETF which has broad constituent stocks within its portfolio.
AMEX:XBILong
by AwesomeAvani
1
$BTCUSD Is it the end of the run? Or is there another 3rd Stage?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Looking back at the last bull run, there were 3 stages and ended with ugly jagged edges at the top, usually that how the bull run ends when distribution occurs, imo. Now after halving as expected, don't listen to the crap that it will shoot up immediately. Sell on news right? So where to from here. again usually the bull run has 3 stages which the 2nd stage is the strongest. Let's see if BTC can stage a 3rd run from there. It is not a jagged edge distribution but a nice retractment trendline as observed. Good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Silverbullet121
Mixed Reviews In Market Direction🟡Breadth - Stocks Above 50 Day 🔴 AMEX:SPY Red Light 🟢 AMEX:IWM Green Light 🟢 TVC:VIX Green Light 🔴Leaders NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SMCI NYSE:CPNG They are not leading but it's also feeling like there might be a changing of the guard or at least some of the guards? (New Leaders Emerge) 🟡Risk Appetite 🟢 NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:DJT 🔴 NASDAQ:SOUN CRYPTOCAP:BTC 👆Feels like risk appetite is mixed but still there. Love to hear some others thoughts on that risk appetite.
TVC:VIX
by JoelTCampbellJr
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) Approaching 2024 Altcoin SeasonLooking at the 1W time frame of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, it looks like it's time for the market to transition from being primarily Bitcoin-dominated to altcoin-dominated. We've seen the writing on the wall with Bitcoin making headline after headline regarding United States Spot ETFs or the halving event. Now that the majority of investors are sucked into Bitcoin, timeline shifts into altcoins. We can see that through the news now with the attention picking up on Ethereum (not discrediting Solana growth by any means, it's still small enough in market cap where it doesn't marginally change the TOTAL2 cap or this chart). Ethereum has the impending United States Spot ETFs approval as well as regulatory clarity coming around Uniswap, and from that I'd assume we'd get some sort or clarity regarding memecoins as well, sending that respective market flying with a green light for institutional investors to invest. Bitcoin is trying to grab attention or hold it's relativity now with Ordinals and L2s, and that's great! Let's say though you buy PUPS, that's considered part of TOTAL2 or bringing down the capitalization of Bitcoin relative to the rest of the crypto market. I'm expecting this trend to continue where Bitcoin holders are using their coins on-chain for these activities, ultimately dragging the BTC.D cap down with it. This time around, I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the previous 72.04% level due to the sheer amount of tokens and liquidity flying around these smid caps. Each Bitcoin Dominance cycle or Bitcoin cycle for that matter, the altcoin seasons get less and less intense due to the amount of relativity they have compared to Bitcoin at all seasons instead of just during altcoin season. Around this 55% range is mid-range of this free-fall seen in 2021, and where orders are resting. We could see Bitcoin Dominance either range in this area or start free-falling, either way I don't see a market where we re-claim that 72.04% or push much higher for that matter. Also, hearing a lot of talk about this cycle being over, cannot tell if they're joking or not, but we haven't seen that altcoin season euphoria yet. That is yet to come. An interesting observation here we can see the 2021 altcoin season took 1085 days to build up from the bottom to the top of Bitcoin dominance, and this 2024 season is right on par with that 1085 days before the cycle ultimately starts. This Bitcoin cycle is a little bit different, so we'll see how this chart plays out this time around, but I remember last cycle, 2021, I called the 72.04% Bitcoin Dominance wick to the Tee. Could be longer, who knows, but so far this chart is playing out and figured I'd give an update. The 2021 altcoins season lasted almost that full year of 2021, but as we can see on the chart, the major move happened between January - May 2021, those 5 months. If history were to repeat itself, we should see this cycle's main move play out in 5 months too.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by kyer
BTC : Inverse head and shoulders, target 330K ? We have just completed a 7-month uncorrected rise to 74k. At this level, the weekly RSI showed a point of resistance. Recently, at the 67k level, the moving averages, stochastics and daily RSI provided an excellent short-term trend reversal point, which could very easily be anticipated. The monthly RSI, too close to resistances, also indicated the need for a healthy correction and stabilization on the part of the king of cryptos, in order to be able to pursue a sufficiently long and appreciable bullrun part 2 and not a flash in the pan. This consolidation would not prevent an alt season from starting quietly once BTC has found its lowest point (the 45-48k zone is ideal), which could be found fairly quickly over the next few weeks. It's possible that the strong hands will attempt an extreme low wick to try to get the smaller investors out of the market, generally we'll hear the youtubers go bearish with headlines like “Bitcoin in Danger / Bear Market?” and this will be the absolute time to strengthen positions, then Jamie Dimon will have been able to load all his bags at a good price, and will say he was wrong, that bitcoin is great and we'll be trending towards the pattern target I'm presenting. It's worth noting that ethereum is beginning to look stronger than btc, with the ETH/BTC pair showing a weekly bullish divergence currently in formation (yet to be validated). So, my scenario is therefore one of inverted head and shoulders, with a right shoulder forming at current levels. This structure will easily provide the momentum needed to win the battle against the 100k resistance, unlike if we'd tried it now and not braked immediately. Don't forget that there are huge, highly anticipated crypto projects coming out in the last quarter, and the big hands want a long bullrun. These big projects don't want to launch on a cycle top. You might think everyone will take profits at 120K, but I think the media hype around breaking the 100K barrier will lead to a massive influx of retail investors and huge investors through ETFs, making this level easily surpassable. This bull run will probably go down in history! Cheers! Btc / Eth / Dosu (Doginal Kabosu on DRC20) investor. Dosu is the bet I'm making as the Shiba of this cycle. Crypto friend since 2017
Long
by CryptoKook_Main
GameFi: Top Sector for 2024 with Huge Potential🚀🚀🚀The GameFi sector, a fusion of gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi), has emerged as one of the most promising areas within the cryptocurrency landscape. This sector has gained significant traction in recent years, attracting both gamers and investors seeking exposure to innovative blockchain-based applications. What is GameFi? GameFi revolutionizes traditional gaming by introducing play-to-earn mechanics, where players can earn rewards in the form of cryptocurrencies or non-fungible tokens (NFTs) for their in-game activities. This integration of blockchain technology into gaming ecosystems creates a new paradigm where players can monetize their time and effort, fostering a more engaged and ownership-oriented gaming experience. Top 5 GameFi Projects with High Growth Potential in 2024: Immutable X (IMX): A layer-2 scaling solution for the Ethereum network, Immutable X focuses on enhancing the user experience for NFT-based games. It offers gas-free minting and trading of NFTs, making it an attractive platform for game developers and players alike. Price Prediction: I anticipate a sweep of local lows and a retest of the $1.4 level, followed by a potential surge towards $5. Floki Inu (FLOKI): A dog-themed meme coin with a strong community and a focus on developing a decentralized gaming metaverse called Valhalla. Floki's price action has exhibited consistent retests of its ascending support line. Price Prediction: I expect the third retest of the trendline to be a fakeout, leading to a downward move to capture liquidity below. Gala (GALA): A blockchain-based gaming platform aiming to create an interconnected ecosystem of games and NFTs. Gala has formed a significant liquidity pool beneath well-defined lows while simultaneously establishing lower highs (without sweeping liquidity above). Price Prediction: I anticipate a sweep from below to initiate a more accelerated upward trajectory. Axie Infinity (AXS): A pioneer in the GameFi space, Axie Infinity gained immense popularity in 2021. The project features a unique gameplay where players breed, battle, and trade Axie creatures, represented by NFTs. Price Prediction: I expect a retest of the 0.5 imbalance level and the $4.6 price point. Illuvium (ILV): An open-world fantasy RPG built on the Ethereum blockchain, Illuvium combines immersive gameplay with NFT ownership and play-to-earn mechanics. The project has gained significant traction in recent months. Price Prediction: I anticipate a fakeout breakout at the bottom of the bearish flag pattern, followed by a swift upward movement. The GameFi sector presents a compelling investment opportunity in the dynamic cryptocurrency market. The integration of gaming and DeFi offers a unique value proposition, attracting both gamers and crypto enthusiasts. The projects mentioned above, each with their distinct features and growth potential, are worth considering for those seeking exposure to the promising GameFi landscape.
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
2