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NFP "Goldilocks" playbook? EURUSD triggers revealed!Markets are optimistic and consolidating ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with EUR/USD poised for a breakout, plus a quick technical overview of gold, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. Mood : Buoyant—risk assets and equities are near weekly highs, bond yields are easing. Consensus : A "Goldilocks" NFP (not too hot, not too cold) is expected, supporting a 25bp Fed rate cut this month and possibly another by year-end. Catalysts : Recent softer labour data and dovish Fed commentary have fueled bets on a more accommodative policy stance. EUR/USD Conditional Scenarios Key Levels: Support at 1.1524, 1.1580, 1.1600, 1.1625; Resistance at 1.1700, 1.1735, 1.1760, 1.1830 Scenarios : Strong NFP : Sell 1.1650–1.1670, targets 1.1600/1.1580/1.1524, stop 1.1700 Goldilocks NFP : Range trade 1.1625–1.1700, buy/sell at edges, stops 1.1580/1.1720 Weak NFP : Buy 1.1630–1.1650, targets 1.1735/1.1760/1.1830, stop 1.1600 Risk : 1–2% per trade, always use stops, watch for ECB-driven reversals This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
1
SHOP - BULLISH SCENARIO since 12 MAY 2025 SHOP - CURRENT PRICE : 145.15 SHOP is bullish as the share price is above 50-day EMA. Price action on 12 MAY 2025 is considered starting of bullish scenario because supported by several key indicators : Share price gap up Price broke out 50-day EMA Price moving above ICHIMOKU CLOUD RSI moving above 50 From 1 August (near 50-day EMA support) to 6 August, the stock recorded a strong upward rally. Following this advance, prices entered a corrective phase and retraced approximately 50% of the prior upswing. According to Dow Theory, such a retracement is considered a normal and healthy correction within an ongoing uptrend. Retracements in the range of one-third to two-thirds of the prior move are typical, with the 50% level often serving as a natural equilibrium point where buyers re-enter the market. Sustaining above the 50% retracement level would reinforce the bullish structure, while a recovery from this zone could pave the way for a retest of the recent highs. However, a decisive break below the 61.8% retracement may imply weakening momentum and a deeper corrective phase. Take note that until now the share price is still above 50-day EMA and ICHIMOKU CLOUD while RSI also moving steadily above 50 level. There is also rising support line - strengthening bullish outlook. ENTRY PRICE : 141.00 - 145.50 TARGET : 159.00 and 175.00 SUPPORT : 50-day EMA (CUTLOSS below 50-day EMA on closing basis)
NASDAQ:SHOPLong
by IMRAN_96
8
TradingView Storytellers: Share Your Videos, Inspire TradersCalling all creators, chart wizards, and video storytellers. 👋 Hey traders ! We know many of you aren’t just analyzing the markets and trading — you’re teaching, creating, and inspiring others. We see you! And now's your chance to get your content in the spotlight — share your best work with us. Top submissions will get featured front and center for the TradingView community. 👉 How to take part: 1️⃣ Share a short video (new or one you already have) that shows how you’re using your favorite TradingView features. 2️⃣ Submit it by filling out our quick questionnaire. That’s it! Your work could be shared with thousands of traders around the world, inspiring others and helping grow our community of creators. 🎁 As a little thank you, we’ll be gifting three free Premium annual plans to standout submissions. And who knows — you might even end up collaborating with us in the future. 👉 Fill out the questionnaire
SP:SPX
by TradingView
15
Bitcoin Rally Fades as Prices Nosedive. End of Bullish Cycle?Technical analysis will tell you that maybe it’s time for a pullback. But then again, this is crypto. It’s the wild west, where predictions are polite suggestions at best. Here’s what we know about where we are. 📉 Bitcoin Takes a Breather Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD started the week on a quieter note, trading mostly sideways while altcoins decided to explore the downside a little more aggressively. After hitting a record high of $124,500 in mid-August , the world’s largest cryptocurrency has pulled back roughly 13%, currently hovering between $108,000 and $110,000. That’s still a big number, but the market mood has shifted from full-blown euphoria to cautious watching. And the question on everyone’s mind? Did we just top out or is there more room to the upside? 🏛️ Politics, Tariffs, and Bitcoin’s Rally Crypto’s recent run-up didn’t happen in a vacuum. After the April dip – triggered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff announcements – Bitcoin bounced back hard. Traders quickly shrugged off the policy shock, betting that a crypto-friendly administration would eventually be good for business. And they weren’t wrong. Since late 2024, Bitcoin and co have been riding a bullish wave fueled by increased Treasury interest, ETF inflows, and a broader perception that digital assets are now mainstream. But with prices off their August highs , the question is whether the market still has the energy to keep pushing… or if gravity is about to kick in. 📐 Technical Check: Bulls, Bears, and Battle Lines Let’s talk charts. At current levels, Bitcoin is sitting right in the middle of its long-term ascending channel – a key battleground between bulls and bears. 1️⃣ Upside scenario : If Bitcoin can hold the line around current prices, the structure could accumulate to a potential breakout toward fresh highs. A sustained move above $112,000 could flip short-term momentum back in favor of the bulls. 2️⃣ Trip south scenario : If the near-term support fails, there’s potential for $98,500 as the bears' next target. It’s a previous bottom hit on June 22 . 3️⃣ Deep south scenario : $92,000 could become the next support as it would represent the fourth inflection point of the ascending channel’s lower boundary. That is, if prices continue to drift lower at the same steady pace. 4️⃣ Really deep south scenario : A steeper correction could drag Bitcoin all the way back to $75,000 – the key level last touched on April 7 (yes, it was the tariff mayhem). It’s the dip, which kicked off the current bull cycle so it’s something of a big deal. Adding to the caution, both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are now sitting above current prices, suggesting that the upward momentum has cooled – at least for now. 🔄 The Seasonal Side of Crypto Bitcoin’s price history has a rhythm, and for better or worse, crypto dances to seasonal vibes. Historically, late summer and early fall tend to bring volatility spikes – and often, corrections – as trading volumes thin out and liquidity gets patchy. The OG token isn’t the only one feeling the heat. Ether BITSTAMP:ETHUSD – which hit a record high of just under $5,000 on August 24 – has slipped roughly 11%. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; corrections can reset overheated conditions and shake out weak hands (not you, diamond hands) before another leg higher. Still, with macro uncertainty looming, traders should expect choppier price action heading into the final quarter of 2025. 📖 Technical Analysis: What to Make of It Technical analysis is built on one key assumption: history repeats itself. Traders look for continuation patterns , support and resistance levels, and indicators like moving averages to predict future price moves. But technical analysis doesn’t account for surprises (unless you go full meta and add the surprises to the natural order of events). Sudden regulatory actions, geopolitical shocks, or even a single whale unloading a massive position can blow up the cleanest technical setups. ✏️ Bottom Line The next few weeks will be key. If Bitcoin can reclaim momentum and punch above $112,000, the bulls could get back in control. But if we slide through $100,000 and lose $92,000, the conversation may shift toward deeper corrections and range trading, with a long-term bear target of $75,000. In the bigger picture, this pullback could just be part of Bitcoin’s usual rhythm: rally, correct, consolidate, repeat. Still, Bitcoin ETFs are booming and companies continue to load up on the crypto and jam it in their treasuries while the White House is working out crypto-friendly legislations. 🏎️💨 Fast fact : Bitcoin has lost 80% of its value not once or twice but four times, only to recoup the losses and come back roaring to a new all-time high. What would an 80% drop look like? Going from $124,500 to $24,000. Off to you : WAGMI? Or NGMI? Share your thoughts in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingView
42
Why Ethereum is Outperforming Bitcoin? | FX ResearchWhile Bitcoin did manage to push to a fresh record high, the broader august trend reflected cautious investor sentiment, supported by modest momentum and ongoing macro uncertainty. The narrative suggests price resilience, but without the forcefulness needed for the next wave of bullish momentum. In stark contrast, Ethereum continued with its run of outperformance—posting double-digit returns and surpassing its 2021 peak to hit fresh all-time highs. Its rally was powered by robust institutional demand, record ETF inflows, and active on-chain metrics like rising transaction volumes and reduced network fees. Favorable regulatory signals, particularly stablecoin-friendly legislation, further stoked confidence in ETH’s utility-driven narrative. This divergence has shifted the ETHBTC dynamic sharply in ETH’s favor. As Bitcoin grinded higher with subdued volatility, Ethereum’s performance underscored its emergence as the speculative bellwether, attracting capital rotating away from Bitcoin’s more mature positioning. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
BLACKBULL:ETHUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Gold – Breaking Out or Faking Out to Start September?Gold has been trading in a 3250-3450 range since the middle of May, but events last week saw prices test and close right at the top of that range on Friday. The drivers impacting this push higher in Gold, which could remain in play for traders in the first week of September, were numerous. These included President Trump’s on-going challenge of Federal Reserve independence with the attempted firing of Governor Cook, Russia demanding more to achieve progress towards a ceasefire to the war in Ukraine, as well as stubborn US inflation (PCE Index last Friday) and resilient economic data at a time when the Federal Reserve are expected to cut interest rates at their next meeting on September 17th. Early trading on Monday has now seen price strength extend, leading to a range breakout (more on this in technical update below) as traders react to news released late on Friday that a US appeals court ruled President Trump's reciprocal tariffs illegal. While the ruling, released after the markets closed, left the tariffs in place ahead of a final showdown at the US Supreme Court, the uncertainty this potentially provides regarding President Trump’s approach to foreign policy has seen Gold prices touch a 4 month high of 3490 (at time of writing 0800 BST). Looking forward, this week is stacked full of risk events that could lead to an increase in Gold price volatility, including important US economic data, with the ISM Manufacturing (Tuesday) and Services (Thursday) PMI survey readings and then the all-important Non-farm payrolls release on Friday. All of which could impact the expectations of traders for a Fed rate cut later in the month. It could be a busy start to September! Technical Update: Range Breakout? Since mid-May 2025, Gold had adopted a more balanced tone, forming a sideways trading range in price activity. This range was defined by the June 16th high at 3451 and the 3246 lows recorded on May 29th and June 30th. However, as the chart above shows, the latest price strength, which has extended so far this morning, is seeing breaks above the 3451 June 16th high, reflecting possibilities of a breakout to the upside in Gold prices. The key question now is whether this breakout from the range is confirmed on a closing basis leading to possibilities of a further phase of price strength, or weakness develops over the balance of Monday’s session, to see a prices settle back under the 3451 level. . While it is impossible to predict if an upside breakout from a sideways range will be confirmed or not, a close above the resistance is required to suggest such possibilities. In the case of Gold, confirmation of this morning’s breakout would require a close above the 3451 resistance level. It should be remembered, a breakout in either direction from a sideways range, may lead to an acceleration in price movement, due to what’s called the supply and demand vacuum. Supply and demand vacuums form when traders become impatient waiting for their orders to trigger above a resistance or below a support of the on-going range. This impatience can lead them to adjust their orders, lowering sell orders to just below resistance or raising buy orders to just above support. When traders shift orders into the range, raising bids above support or lowering offers below resistance, it can reinforce the strength of those levels and prolong the range. However, this also creates price zones just above and below the range with few active orders left. If a breakout occurs, the lack of immediate liquidity can lead to a sharp price acceleration until the next cluster of buy orders (on the downside) or sell orders (on the upside) are reached. A reason for this morning’s initial acceleration higher in the price of Gold after the break above 3451, may be due to a supply vacuum above the resistance level. However, tonight’s closing level could also be an important focus for traders. While not a guarantee of further strength, a close above the 3451 resistance may be seen by traders as a positive move, potentially paving the way for further gains in Gold. A close above the 3451 resistance could signal a move toward the April 22nd all-time high at 3500. If breached, the next resistance may then be 3648, marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. For downside risks to re-emerge, which could suggest this morning’s move higher may be a false break of the 3451 resistance, traders could now be focusing on 3420, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest price strength. A close below this 3420 support, if seen, could trigger further weakness, potentially to retest 3380, the deeper 61.8% retracement, even then the August 20th low at 3311. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Pepperstone
2
Has Bitcoin Reached It's Four-Year Cycle Top?Why Bitcoin Might Have Reached Its Four-Year Cycle Top Historical Pattern: Bitcoin's four-year cycle often peaks around halving events, influencing supply and price dynamics. MACD Signal: The primary signal indicator in the upper panel remains in a bullish position, with no bearish cross, indicating ongoing upward momentum. Wave 3 Peak: The current print high of 125,417 USD marks the crest of Cycle Degree 3, the strongest wave in an impulse sequence. Elliott Wave Count Analysis Current Position: The chart labels the all-time print high of the Cycle Degree 3 high at 125,417. Wave 4 Expectation: A corrective wave 4 decline is anticipated, but it must remain above the wave one high of 69,000 USD to uphold the Elliott Wave structure. Wave 5 Potential: If wave 4 holds above 69,000 USD, a subsequent wave 5 could drive prices far higher, completing a larger Super Cycle degree wave I. Bullish Posture and Key Levels Primary Signal Indicator: The long-term bullish posture based on the MACD remains intact, with the indicator staying bullish until a monthly close shows the fast-moving average crossing and closing below the slow-moving average. Support Level: Maintaining above 69,000 USD during any wave 4 pullback is crucial for the long-term bullish posture to persist and conform with the current wave count analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Wave-Tech
13
Fear and Loathing at the Long End?Sovereign bond rates have steadily crept higher since the pandemic, and some traders may worry about further upward pressure in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield. The first pattern on today’s weekly chart is the double bottom at roughly 3.95 percent in December 2023 and September 2024. Second, TYX bounced around 4.3 percent in December 2024 and March 2025. That pair of double bottoms at successively higher levels may suggest an uptrend is taking shape. Next, a surge happened as the Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts last year. With more easing expected next month, could markets react in a similar fashion? Finally, you have the series of higher lows since early April. Yields have simultaneously pushed against the psychologically important 5 percent level. The resulting ascending triangle is a potential upside continuation pattern. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:TYX
by TradeStation
september effect: why markets seem to catch a cold every fall📉 The September Effect chart example: average monthly returns of the S&P500 since 1928 Every year, as summer ends and September rolls in, traders brace themselves. Why? Because the “September Effect” is notorious for turning even the steadiest markets into a rollercoaster. Understanding this seasonal quirk can make the difference between a smooth ride and a portfolio wipeout. 📊 What Is the September Effect? The September Effect is the observed tendency of financial markets to underperform during September. Historically, it’s one of the worst months for equities, currencies, and even commodities. Some reasons behind it: Institutional Moves: Big players return from summer breaks, recalibrating portfolios. Expect sudden spikes in activity and volatility. Quarter-End Adjustments: September marks the end of Q3, often triggering rebalancing or profit-taking. Economic Releases: Important data (jobs, inflation, trade figures) often drop in September, leading to sharp market reactions. 🌍 How It Hits Global Markets The effect isn’t just local—it ripples across the globe: Equities: Indices like the S&P 500 and FTSE historically trend lower more often in September than other months. Currencies: Pairs involving USD, EUR, and JPY can swing wildly as traders reposition ahead of data releases. Commodities: Gold, oil, and other commodities may see sudden shifts based on sentiment, hedging, or macroeconomic expectations. 🔍 Navigating September Without Panic You don’t have to fear September—it just requires smarter strategies: Tight Risk Management: Stop-losses, hedging, and diversification are your best friends. Stay Updated: Economic reports, geopolitical events, and central bank actions can set the tone. Chart Smarts: Technical patterns and indicators can guide better entries and exits amid the volatility. above chart shows the historical average of major indicies.. The Takeaway The September Effect is real, but it’s not a doom prophecy. Recognizing it allows traders to plan, protect, and even profit from seasonal swings. The markets may shiver in September—but with the right strategy, your portfolio doesn’t have to. put together by : @currencynerd
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
6
Gold Pops 5% as Fed Fears Drive Demand. New Record High Soon?Gold bugs are doing well this summer. The yellow metal OANDA:XAUUSD just logged its best monthly performance since April, climbing nearly 5% in August and closing at $3,447 per ounce on Friday – its highest level since mid-June. As stock bros take a break for Labor Day on Monday, gold bugs are pushing higher, challenging the current all-time high with another leg up to $3,490. But before the ATH hits, let's see how we got here. Between Fed drama, Trump-vs-Lisa Cook headlines, and falling yields , gold suddenly looks like the life raft everyone wants. 🕺🏻 Let’s break it down. 🤸‍♀️ 🏦 Fed Drama Meets Gold Fever When politics and monetary policy collide, volatility follows – and gold traders have been feasting on it. President Donald Trump’s latest target? Lisa Cook, a Biden-appointed Fed governor and one of the crew of seven responsible for setting interest rates. Trump wants her out, she wants to stay , and a federal court hearing wrapped Friday without a ruling on whether he can fire her while her lawsuit plays out. The bigger picture: this fight is about Fed independence – or what’s left of it. A perceived White House grip on rate decisions injects more uncertainty into markets, and when things get murky, gold shines. Traders don’t just buy bullion for safe-haven vibes; they’re hedging against the possibility that the Fed is less independent than we thought. The Trump-vs-Lisa Cook fight is a precedent, a sight never seen in the history of America. 📉 Rate Cut Bets Are Back on the Table Friday’s inflation data – the Personal Consumption Expenditures ECONOMICS:USPCEPI price index – came in exactly as expected, up 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. Core PCE clocked in at 2.9%, in line with consensus. That’s the Fed's favored inflation metric so it holds big weight when central bankers get together to decide whether to keep, hike, or cut borrowing costs. Last month's readout showed predictable numbers that set off a chain reaction: markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a September rate cut, as per the CME FedWatch tool. Rates are instrumental in adjusting the prices of gold because it doesn’t pay any yield. In a high-rate world, holding bullion means losing out on returns you’d get from Treasuries or savings accounts – a classic opportunity cost, in economic lingo. But when rates drop, that cost shrinks, and the shiny metal suddenly looks far more attractive as a store of value rather than a drag on returns. In short, lower yields + lower dollar = stronger demand for gold. And with the dollar down 2.2% in August, the tailwind is getting stronger, helping explain gold’s upswing. 📈 A Double Top… or a Line Crossed? Here’s where things get spicy for chart-watchers. Friday’s rally pushed gold right up against its mid-June peak above $3,440 per ounce, forming what looked suspiciously like a double top pattern – a bearish setup where prices stall twice at the same resistance level before heading lower. Only that, it didn't take long for momentum to carry gold past the double-top pattern and into record-close territory. Fast fact: gold’s record high is just about $10 to $30 away from current market prices. The precious metal hit $3,500 in late April, just before shaving off some $200 in a bruising two-day wipeout . 🛍️ Why Gold Is Back in Fashion Gold’s rally is about technicals as much as it is about vibes and fundamentals. And right now, the macro backdrop is doing the heavy lifting: Fed policy uncertainty is making traders nervous Political drama over Fed independence is adding fuel Falling yields are pulling investors into non-yielding assets Dollar weakness is inviting overseas buyers to pile in 👀 What Traders Should Watch Next This week could be pivotal for gold’s next leg: The upcoming nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP report on Friday will set the tone. Prediction gurus have pinned their expectations at 78,000 hires in August, about the same as the previous month’s 73,000. What about revisions? That’s a thing now, after the last reading trimmed 258,000 jobs off May and June. A weak jobs print would reinforce fears of a slowing economy, cementing expectations of a September rate cut – a potentially bullish setup for gold. On the flip side, a blowout number could cool the rally. Also on deck: more chatter from the Federal Reserve ahead of its September 16-17 meeting, especially around the firing of Lisa Cook. For now, traders are watching the $3,450–$3,460 resistance zone like hawks. That’s the line between a short-term top and a fresh breakout. 👉 The Takeaway Gold just had its best monthly run in four months, but it’s walking a tightrope at a critical resistance level. With prices less than 1% away from the all-time high, the next move could define the rest of the quarter for bullion (and maybe even the fourth quarter). If you’re trading this, two camps are emerging: Breakout believers think falling yields and the mosaic of data are about to send prices ripping above $3,500. Doom-and-gloom permabears see more froth than substance, saying prices can only go one way from here. Off to you: Which side are you on? Share your thoughts and observations in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradingView
11
SILVER, MONSTER RISE AHEAD targeting 3 digit pricing!!! SEED NOWFirst things first. Chart is based on reverse metrics of GOLD/SIVER. SILVER, is usually the supporting actor of the main star GOLD for months. During GOLD's relentless series of rise from 1900 -- silver has been pretty much on the low key state in terms of volume exposure and media mileage but that is about to change soon. Recent long term data metrics is hinting of a massive reversal to the upside after that elusive 14-year downtrend break. This event does not come often, so THIS IS VERY SPECIAL -- a once in a lifetime opportunity. Based on our diagram, we are seeing some expanding upside pressure this past few weeks rendering a strong break of this long standing resistance trend that lasted years -- which started from 0.033 on April 2011 to finally tapping an extreme lows at 0.09 on January 2025. This HUGE SHIFT is giving some clues already of whats about to transpire in the next few months -- to break barriers. Now things are shifting BIG TIME for SILVER as recent price surge this past few weeks has depicted a very significant net long positioning on a grand time scale (long term). Since the start of 2025, SILVER has already risen almost 40% from its lows. An impressive feat. This yearly percentile growth is hinting of a bigger picture as we move forward -- to rise further, and explore new high HIGHS in the next few seasons. This recent massive break -- 14 years in the making should warrant significant positioning already both in retail and institutions. I'm expecting SILVER to supercede gold in terms of percentile growth metrics % because of the wide price difference ratio. SILVER will continue to grab good attention from hereon as increasing demand of this metal will just inflate its prices -- moreso, with apparent depleting supplies. To add to this, US has proposed adding silver to its Critical Minerals List, reflecting its vital industrial, technological, and national security importance, especially for renewable energy, electronics, and medical applications. The draft 2025 list by the USGS and Department of the Interior includes silver for the first time, aiming to boost domestic supply security and reduce reliance on imports by providing incentives for mining and recycling. With all these factored in, SILVER should be a no-brainer part of your portfolio starting today. Rewards will be far greater than you will ever imagine. Current price: 39.0 Target 100. Long term Target 200-400. TAYOR. Trade safely.
OANDA:XAUXAGLong
by JSAL
12
Gold, Yields, and the Fed: How Monetary Policy Drives Markets Few forces shape global markets more than U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, maximum employment and 2% inflation is the anchor for its decisions. For traders, understanding how these objectives translate into interest rate changes is critical for positioning in gold futures and across the yield curve. The Fed’s Dual Mandate 1. Maximum Employment: Support jobs and minimize unemployment. 2. Stable Prices (2% inflation target): Prevent runaway inflation or deflation. The Fed balances these goals using interest rates: • Raising rates: Cools demand, strengthens the dollar, lifts yield, weighs on gold. • Cutting rates: Stimulates demand, weakens the dollar, lowers real yields, supports gold. The tension lies in the trade-off: controlling inflation often hurts employment, while boosting employment risks higher inflation. Gold and Monetary Policy Gold is highly sensitive to real interest rates (nominal yields minus inflation): • Hawkish Fed: Higher real yields, dollar strength, gold struggles. • Dovish Fed: Lower real yields, weaker dollar, gold rallies. However, given the recent surge in gold prices despite higher rates, traders must ask: • Will gold continue rising as odds of rate cuts increase, and when they are eventually delivered? • Is the traditional correlation between the dollar and gold futures prices breaking down? Gold’s rally has also been driven by geopolitical tensions and rising long term yields, reflecting rising debt burdens across the globe. Yield Curve and Monetary Policy The yield curve reflects expectations about growth, inflation, and Fed policy. • Short end (1M–5Y): Anchored by Fed policy rates. If markets expect hikes/cuts, the front end moves first. • Long end (10Y–30Y): Driven by expectations for long-term inflation, growth, and Treasury supply/demand dynamics. Typically, investors and market participants watch for the following patterns: • Inverted curve: Short yields > long yields, often a recession signal. See last year’s yield curve. • Steepening curve: Usually follows Fed cuts, as front-end yields drop faster than the back end. Two Classic Scenarios Scenario 1: Inflation Stays High, Jobs Weaken • Fed resists cutting, prioritizing price stability. • Gold: Consolidates or weakens (real yields elevated). • Yield curve: While the short end stays pinned, long end could rise on higher inflation risk and increasing debt worries, signaling stagflation risk. Scenario 2: Inflation Stabilizes, Jobs Weaken • Fed pivots dovish, prioritizing employment. • Gold: Breaks higher on falling real yields. • Yield curve: Steepens as short yields fall faster than long yields. The Policy Backdrop Powell’s last symposium before his term ends, at the Jackson Hole appearance, Fed Chair Powell delivered a dovish pivot, highlighting rising risks to the labor market while downplaying the inflationary effects of tariffs. The reasoning behind this shift deserves its own deep dive, but for now, our focus remains squarely on how monetary policy, specifically interest rate decisions, impacts inflation, growth, supply, and demand in the U.S. economy. What’s on the Docket Until the Next Fed Meeting (September 17, 2025) Markets will be glued to data in the coming weeks: • Aug PCE / Core PCE (Aug 28–29) → Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. • Aug NFP (Sep 5) → Labor market health; weak print strengthens the case for cuts. • Aug PPI (Sep 10) → Upstream price pressures; hot numbers signal inflation risks. • Aug CPI & Core CPI (Sep 11) → Key headline data; softer print supports dovish case. • Fed Decision (Sep 17) → Will Powell stress inflation vigilance, or shift toward labor concerns? How the Charts Tie It Together • Gold Futures: o Ascending Triangle breakout above resistance towards $3,600, if Fed pivots dovish and deliver a rate cut or a bigger rate cut. o Ascending Triangle breakdown toward $3,350 if inflation remains sticky and the Fed holds. In this scenario, gold remains in balance overall. • Yield Curve: o Short end reacts directly to Fed rate expectations. o Long end reflects investor conviction on inflation, growth and increasing debt concerns. Takeaway for Traders The Fed’s dual mandate creates a constant push and pull between inflation control and employment support. Gold and the yield curve are two of the clearest real-time mirrors of that balancing act: • Watch short-term yields and gold to gauge how markets are pricing the Fed’s next move. • Watch the long end of the curve to see whether investors believe inflation is truly anchored. By linking economic data → Fed mandate → asset price response, traders gain a roadmap that works not just for this Fed meeting, but for every one that follows. In our next educational blog we will briefly explore other policy tools used by the Fed i.e., QE and QT. Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening. FRED:FEDFUNDS ECONOMICS:USINTR CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:NQ1! COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! CBOT:ZB1! CBOT:ZN1!
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
19
Correlation Traps: When Diversification Isn’t DiversifyingYou thought you were diversified. You had tech, energy, crypto, gold — a little bit of everything. Then a single headline nuked your entire portfolio in one day. Welcome to the sneaky world of correlation traps. 🧩 The Diversification Myth Everyone loves to brag about their diversified portfolio. Some Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA here, Rocket Lab NASDAQ:RKLB there, maybe sprinkle in some Solana COINBASE:SOLUSD “for balance.” But if your carefully curated mix of assets moves in the same direction every time Powell says “Good afternoon” at a Fed event… are you really diversified? Or are you just collecting different-shaped eggs in the same basket? This is the correlation trap — the illusion of safety when your assets are secretly plotting against you. On paper, your portfolio says “hedged.” In practice, one bad CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI print, a tariff tweet, or an AI bubble hiccup can torch your entire P&L statement for the month. And it works both ways. When Powell signals cuts, everything rallies: stocks, crypto, commodities, even meme ETFs. Suddenly, your “balanced” portfolio becomes a leveraged bet on a single narrative. 📉 Positive Correlation = Double Trouble Correlation measures how two assets move relative to each other. Positive correlation means they tend to move together. That sounds fine on the upside — everyone’s a genius in bull markets. But when the markets get stressed, it doesn’t really matter if you’re holding traditional stocks or crypto assets. Here's an example. March 2020. The S&P 500 SP:SPX cratered. Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD lost more than half of its value in a week. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD dipped. Even safe-haven treasury ETFs had a panic moment. When markets really go risk-off, assets that are usually uncorrelated can suddenly drop in sync. Why does this happen? Herd behavior, mostly. When traders, funds, and algos all unwind positions at once, correlations spike. In times of panic, cash is king. 🛡️ Negative Correlation = Your Actual Friend True diversification comes from mixing assets with low or negative correlation. Historically, think equities vs. treasuries, or stocks vs. gold. When risk assets like stocks get wrecked, safe-haven assets like gold often move up to soften the blow. But even these aren’t bulletproof anymore. Rising inflation, aggressive tariff broadside, and geopolitical headlines can disrupt traditional correlations. Traders relying on “old rules” learn quickly that markets evolve, and yesterday’s safe havens don’t always save you today. Traders often assume “low correlation” equals “zero risk” or “perfect hedge.” Not really. Low correlation can vanish during high-volatility events — exactly when you need it the most. Correlation creep is real — and unless you check, you could be risking more than you think. 🧠 Trading Psychology Meets Correlation Correlation traps aren’t just technical — they can mess with your thinking. Traders often overestimate how diversified they are, which breeds overconfidence. You assume your downside is limited… until a risk event wipes you out across positions you thought were independent. The result? Revenge trading . Over-sizing. Ignoring stop-losses. The correlation trap becomes a psychological spiral if you don’t plan your true exposure correctly. 🛠️ Avoiding the Trap: Practical Moves That Work Run the numbers. You’ve built out a perfect portfolio? Check where your picks are coming from and where they fit using the TradingView Heatmaps and Screeners . Diversify by driver, not ticker. If multiple assets react to the same narrative, you’re likely not truly diversified. Add true hedges. Bonds, gold, cash, and volatility products can help — but only if you size them correctly. Watch cross-asset flows. Use correlations between equities, commodities, FX, and crypto to spot when risk is clustering. The key takeaway? Diversification isn’t about owning “a little of everything.” It’s about owning different risk exposures. 👉 Bottom Line Diversification fails when you mistake quantity for quality. Five correlated trades don’t make you hedged; they make you levered without you knowing it. Correlation traps creep up quietly, especially during euphoric rallies when every chart goes up together. But when sentiment flips — and it does flip — you find out real quickly what’s actually diversified and what isn’t. Next time someone brags about holding “uncorrelated” assets, ask them one question: “Did they all move the same way on the last CPI print ?” If the answer’s yes, maybe it’s time to rethink what diversification really means. Off to you : How do you balance your portfolio? Or maybe you’re not after diversification and instead you’re chasing concentration? Share your approach in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
15
Retro Editors' picks 2023Moving onward, for the penultimate time, in our retro EP selection , we present to you the fourth collection of additional scripts that have earned a spot in our Editors' picks, this time from 2023. These retrospective selections reflect our continued commitment to honoring outstanding contributions in our community, regardless of when they were published. To the authors of these highlighted scripts: our sincere thanks, on behalf of all TradingViewers. Congrats! ▋ KioseffTrading 10x Bull Vs. Bear VP Intraday Sessions Delta Ladder ▋ LonesomeTheBlue RSI Radar Multi Time Frame ▋ MUQWISHI Time & Sales (Tape) Treasury Yields Heatmap ▋ RicardoSantos MathEasingFunctions (library) ▋ Trendoscope Angled Volume Profile Zigzag (library) ZigzagLite (library) Next month, in the last week of September, we will share our final Retro Editors' Picks, for 2024. These will also be visible in the Editors' picks feed . Previously published retro Editors' picks: May: retro EPs for 2020 June: retro EPs for 2021 July: retro EPs for 2022 █   What are Editors' picks ? The Editors' picks showcase the best open-source script publications selected by our PineCoders team. Many of these scripts are original and only available on TradingView. These picks are not recommendations to buy or sell anything or use a specific indicator. We aim to highlight the most interesting publications to encourage learning and sharing in our community. Any open-source script publication in the Community Scripts can be picked if it is original, provides good potential value to traders, includes a helpful description, and complies with the House Rules. — The PineCoders team
INDEX:BTCUSD
by PineCoders
11
Don’t Be the Exit Liquidity: The Truth About IPOsPicture this: a company wants to go public. They don’t just toss shares on the market like a garage sale. No. The sequence is distinct. First, the company sits down with the sharpest pencils on Wall Street—the underwriters. These aren’t TikTok stock gurus; they’re analysts whose job is to tear apart every balance sheet and market forecast. They value the business, set a price, and—here’s the kicker—they buy the shares themselves. Real money on the line. Then they resell to big funds. Only after that circus is done does the stock finally hit the exchange, where the rest of us can click “buy.” Now, what happens at the open? Retail traders pile in like it’s Black Friday, paying two or three times the IPO price because “it’s going to the moon.” But who’s on the other side of that trade? The pros. The funds. The people who literally just bought the same shares for half the price. They’re not dumb. They’re happy to sell you their cheap stock at your expensive price. Look at 2025’s hottest IPOs: Figma (FIG): Priced at $33. Opened at $85. Shot to $142. Now back near $74. Circle (CRCL): IPO $31. Opened $69. Spiked to $299. Collapsed to $135. Chime (CHYM): IPO $27. Opened $43. Two weeks later? $29. Bullish (BLSH): IPO $37. Opened $95. Peaked $118. Then sagged to $68. See the theme? If you chased the open, you weren’t investing. You were buying somebody else’s victory dinner. Here’s the advice your future self will thank you for: trust the underwriters’ homework. These people aren’t perfect, but they’re the best paid risk managers on the planet, and they literally put their own money into the deal. If the IPO is priced at $30, there’s usually a reason. Paying a little premium—maybe 20–30%—is fine. But doubling or tripling that on hype? That’s how you end up holding the bag. If you want an IPO that’s actually worth leaning into a bit above the ask, keep an eye on Accelerant Holdings. Insurance may sound boring, but boring makes money. They’re disrupting an industry with a clear, scalable model. Unlike some flashy names, Accelerant has a simple story and a real path to growth. Paying 30% above ask for that? Much smarter bet than chasing a crypto stock that just opened at triple. Final thought: IPO day isn’t a lottery. It’s poker. The pros already know the cards. Don’t sit down at their table without understanding the rules.
NYSE:ARX
by litwizard
22
Bubble, No Bubble: Stocks Are So Back After Powell Cranks It UpStretched valuations, talks of froth, and overall market fatigue. That’s what investors were saying for stocks (especially those AI plays) up until Powell brought up the vibe that rekindled the animal spirits. Let’s talk about that. 📈 Powell Drops the Mic Markets started last week exhausted. The S&P 500 SP:SPX was wobbling, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC was shedding like your beautiful ragdoll cat, and traders were probably looking up vacation getaways instead of technical patterns. But then on Friday we all came together to hear one man speak . It was the same neutral, laid back tone, but this one time something was different. As if… a bolder man was on the stage, unafraid to crank it up. Or was it more of an elderly man finally giving the kids what they wanted? In his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed boss Jay Powell acknowledged what markets had been hoping to hear: “The risk of rising prices has diminished.” Translation? The Fed finally sees inflation cooling down. And the labor market might need some help, too. That was all it took. Risk appetite flipped, sending equities way higher into Friday’s close (even though Monday's futures dipped a bit ). The S&P 500 SP:SPX booked a solid 1.5% pop, the Dow Jones TVC:DJI surged 1.9% to a fresh all-time high, and the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC managed to erase much of its weekly losses after a strong 2% increase. Powell didn’t cut rates yet — he just gave markets a few reasons to believe cuts are coming. 🚧 The Job Market Pivot Before Powell spoke, traders were bracing for maybe one rate cut this year, if any. Sticky inflation had the Fed cornered. But Powell flipped the narrative, shifting attention to the labor market instead. The US unemployment rate has climbed nearly a full percentage point over the past year, and job growth is slowing fast, averaging just 35,000 new positions per month over the past three months. Even worse, revisions stripped 258,000 jobs from May and June’s data. For traders, this was the lightbulb moment: a weakening labor market gives Powell the green light to pivot. 🔥 Inflation Still Isn’t Dead Here’s the awkward part: while Powell’s tone eased market fears, the inflation problem hasn’t magically vanished. Core CPI is still running 3% year-over-year, well above the Fed’s 2% target, even as the headline CPI ECONOMICS:USCPI stood at 2.7% for July . Meanwhile, wholesale prices ECONOMICS:USPPI — often a precursor to consumer price trends — surged 0.9% last month , marking their fastest monthly jump in three years. Powell is walking a tightrope: move too quickly on cuts, and inflation could flare up again; wait too long, and the job market weakens further. The stakes are high, and the balance fragile. 🎈 Bubble Talk, Again Every time stocks rip higher, the “bubble” debate resurfaces. And honestly? It’s hard to ignore it this time. AI stocks are priced like they’ve already rewired how the world works, and the Nasdaq’s relentless rally looks almost too clean. But here’s a reality check. We’ve never had a big market crisis for the past 16 years. March 2020? Recovered in a few months. April’s mini-crash? Erased in weeks. Markets seem determined to brush off every scare and buy the dip. Powell’s pivot only reinforced that attitude: traders don’t care about stretched valuations if the Fed is hinting at cheaper money ahead. 🤖 Nvidia’s Market, Nvidia’s Rules That’s how we move forward to what’s next. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA drops earnings on August 27 ( Earnings Calendar for reference). And because this is Nvidia’s market and we all live in it, expectations are sky-high. Analysts are projecting just under $46 billion in revenue and $1 per share in earnings . But the real focus? Forward guidance. If Nvidia signals a blockbuster Q3 — something in the ballpark of $54 billion in sales — it could keep fueling the AI mania and push the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to fresh highs. But if the numbers disappoint, this entire rally could wobble. Considering Nvidia has added more than $3 trillion in market cap since 2023, it’s no exaggeration to say the stock’s earnings could set the tone for everything else. 🦁 Animal Spirits Are Back Powell’s softer tone and the Nvidia hype machine have combined to reawaken animal spirits across Wall Street. That makes for a good example on how you can shift from doom-posting about stagflation to refreshing the ATH charts in less than 48 hours. The S&P and the Dow are at or near record highs, the Nasdaq is eyeing another breakout. What’s not to like? The rally isn’t bulletproof. It’s being driven as much by vibes as fundamentals right now. Rate cuts haven’t happened yet, the labor market is fragile, and inflation hasn’t fully cooled. The market appears to be trading on optimism — and optimism can turn fast. 🏁 The Bottom Line Jerome Powell didn’t announce a rate cut, but he did something almost better: he opened the door a bit wider. By acknowledging softer labor data and reduced inflation risks, he revived traders’ appetite and gave permission to believe the rally has legs. But this story has two big hinges: Nvidia has to deliver, and inflation has to behave. One earnings miss or a hot CPI print, and this animal spirit revival could fade as quickly as it started. Off to you : Are you long and excited about the outlook? Or you’re in the bear camp and looking for your chance to short this market? Share your views in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
15
Amazon Chart CheckOn the weekly chart, Amazon looks like it’s starting to tire a bit. Price is struggling just under that January high near 24,252. Looking at the Ichimoku Cloud: • In mid-2023, price broke strongly above the cloud and bounced cleanly higher after retests. • More recently (spring 2025), we had a decent correction but bounced again. • Now, instead of bouncing hard, price is just sitting on top of the cloud — feels weaker than before. On the daily chart: • The 200-day moving average has been a line in the sand since May. Several successful tests and bounces. • Currently, price is hugging the daily cloud. • If we see erosion near 219–220(top of the cloud), a quick dip back to the 200-day MA (~21,280) is very possible. • A close below that could signal a potential top forming. ⚠️ For me, this uptrend feels a little tired — worth keeping an eye on and possibly tightening stops if you’re in the trade. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by The_STA
5
Nvidia Shares Maintain Bearish Bias Near $170Over the past three trading sessions, Nvidia’s shares have posted a sharp decline, accumulating losses of more than 3% in the short term. For now, the emerging selling bias around the stock remains in place, as the market fears a potential overheating of the artificial intelligence industry. Added to this is the anticipation of the company’s results on August 27, which may show difficulties in revenue, mainly due to concerns that sales in China have weakened in recent months amid the intensifying trade war. Earnings per share are expected to come in around $0.94, but uncertainty remains as to whether this figure can hold given possible performance challenges. As long as this uncertainty persists, selling pressure on the stock could remain in the short term. Uptrend Channel at Risk Recent sessions have shown a clear shift in the bullish outlook that Nvidia had been sustaining in prior weeks. A significant bearish correction has emerged, halting the advance of the short-term uptrend channel and leading to a breakdown of its lower boundary. As long as selling pressure continues, this previous channel may lose relevance and give way to a broader bearish scenario, provided the bearish bias remains dominant. Technical Indicators RSI: the RSI line has begun to show a downward slope, now approaching the neutral 50 level. If it breaks below this threshold, selling momentum could become dominant in the short term, paving the way for stronger bearish pressure on the chart in the upcoming sessions. MACD: the MACD histogram is currently moving below the 0 line, reflecting that short-term moving averages have entered a sustained bearish territory. If the histogram continues to decline, selling pressure is likely to strengthen further in the short term. Key Levels to Watch: $184 – Main Resistance: corresponds to the area of recent highs. A sustained recovery above this level could reactivate a bullish bias and bring back strength to the uptrend channel. $173 – Near-Term Support: current congestion zone of recent weeks and the most immediate barrier. A sustained move below this level could trigger a stronger bearish bias in the short term. $162 – Crucial Support: aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A decisive break below this level would confirm a bearish structural shift, opening the door to a new selling trend in the short term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FOREXcom
9
Dow Theory: Unlocking Market Trends for Consistent ProfitsDow Theory is the foundation of modern technical analysis. Developed by Charles H. Dow in the late 19th century, this theory asserts that the market reflects all information and price movements always follow identifiable trends. To this day, Dow Theory remains a "compass" for traders in understanding price behavior. 6 Core Principles of Dow Theory: The Market Reflects All Price includes all information: news, expectations, psychology, and economic data. Therefore, the chart is the most reliable source of information. The Market Has 3 Trends Primary Trend: Lasts for several months to years. Secondary Trend: Adjustments within the primary trend, usually lasting a few weeks. Minor Trend: Fluctuates over a few days, less significant. The Primary Trend Has 3 Phases Accumulation: Smart investors quietly buy. Public Participation: Large capital flows in, and the trend becomes clear. Distribution: Large institutions begin to offload, preparing for reversal. Indices Must Confirm Each Other Dow used the industrial and railroad indices; today, this means trends are only valid when multiple markets/inter-markets confirm the same direction. Volume Confirms the Trend In an uptrend, volume should increase when the price rises and decrease during corrections. The opposite is true for downtrends. Trends Continue Until Clear Reversal Signals Appear Traders shouldn’t try to pick bottoms or tops, but rather follow the trend until there's confirmation of a change. Practical Significance for Traders: Helps identify the main trend to follow the big money. Aids in risk management by avoiding trading against the trend. Provides a comprehensive view: price, volume, and market phases.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Rocky_trade_
20
Traders Go Quiet Ahead of Jackson Hole — What Will Powell Say?Markets have been eerily quiet this week. Not because traders suddenly discovered meditation, but because everyone is waiting for one man in Wyoming to make things move. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the man who moves markets with a simple “Good afternoon,” is about to step onto the stage at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. And when he does, markets will hang on every word — because it’s his final speech as Fed boss at the premium event. ⛰️ Jackson Hole: Where Hiking Boots Meet Basis Points The Jackson Hole conference isn’t your average PowerPoint snoozefest. Each year, central bankers from around the world swap suits for Patagonia fleeces and gather in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park. Think Davos, but with more elk. This year’s theme? “Labor Markets in Transition.” Translation: the Fed wants to talk demographics, productivity, and immigration — the forces shaping how Americans work and how the economy grows. But make no mistake: nobody’s tuning in for a TED Talk on labor force participation rates. They want Powell’s take on interest rates. 🎯 Powell’s Big Moment Powell’s speech may only run about 15 minutes (he’s not known for monologues), but the stakes couldn’t be higher. His term as Fed chair ends in May, and President Donald Trump has spent most of this year taking swings at him — calling him a “major LOSER” and grumbling that the Fed is moving “Too Late” on rate cuts. Trump has even floated the idea of firing Powell early, which, technically speaking, isn’t supposed to happen. But this is 2025, and “not supposed to happen” has lost most of its meaning. So, Jackson Hole could be Powell’s last best chance to lock in a legacy: defending the Fed’s independence while signaling where rates are headed next. ⛅️ Markets Already Have a Guess Wall Street isn’t exactly sitting in suspense. Interest-rate swaps are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September, with two full cuts baked in before the year is out. Why? Because the data leaves Powell little wiggle room: Jobs market: Recent revisions show weaker-than-thought employment growth . Maximum employment? Not quite. Inflation: July’s consumer price index came in at 2.7% year-on-year — stable, but not scary enough to justify keeping rates where they are forever. Tariffs: Trump’s sweeping duties could pressure inflation further, but they’re also weighing on growth. Powell’s challenge is threading the needle between those forces. Translation: the Fed looks ready to flip from “higher for longer” to “cutting season.” 🧘‍♂️ Traders on Mute If you think markets look a little sleepy, you’re not wrong. On Monday, the S&P 500 basically took a nap , slipping 0.01% as traders sat on their hands. Tuesday was even worse with big tech nosediving all day long. It’s not just Powell they’re waiting for. Roughly 95% of S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings, (mandatory note: catch all earnings dates in the Earnings Calendar ) with more than 80% beating expectations. Companies have been surprisingly nimble, offsetting tariffs and riding the weaker dollar . Yet despite the blowout earnings season, nobody wants to make big moves until Powell clears the air. Call it the pre-Jackson Hole silence — the calm before the potential volatility storm. 🥊 Powell vs. Trump There’s also political theater baked into this. Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower rates to juice growth and pump markets. Powell, however, has tried to keep the Fed above the political fray. But that balancing act has been messy. Lower too quickly, and Powell risks stoking more inflation. Hold too high, and he risks slowing the labor market just as it’s showing cracks. Either way, he’ll be accused of playing politics. This isn’t just about economics. It’s about central bank independence — a fancy way of asking: Can Powell make decisions without getting steamrolled by the White House? 🔮 What to Watch For Here’s what traders will parse in his speech: Tone: Does Powell sound more dovish (hinting at cuts) or still hawkish (concerned about tariffs fueling inflation)? Framework: Will he unveil a new policy strategy for inflation and jobs? Forward guidance: Any nods to September’s meeting or beyond will be amplified a thousand times on trading desks worldwide. In other words, the market doesn’t just want Powell’s words. It wants the subtext and the context. 🚀 Why It Matters for Traders For traders (yes, you), Powell’s Jackson Hole moment has real portfolio consequences: Equities: A dovish Powell could extend the market’s record run — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq already logged new all-time highs this summer. Bonds: Rate cuts could mean yields falling, bond prices rising. Treasuries might not be the snooze trade they’ve been. Dollar: Lower rates could push the greenback down, offering a boost to commodities and emerging markets. Lower rates = lower deposit yields = less appeal to hold greenback. Crypto: Yes, even Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD cares. A dovish Fed means more liquidity sloshing around — which historically finds its way into risk assets. 🏁 The Takeaway Markets are quiet now, but don’t expect them to stay that way. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is shaping up as one of the most important of his career — maybe his swan song as Fed chair. Off to you : Here’s a question (or two). Will he go dovish, handing traders the rate cuts they crave? Or will he stand firm, reminding everyone that the Fed won’t be bullied by politics? Share your thoughts in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
19
Bitcoin Daily Analysis – The Trend Is Our FriendGood morning, Guys, I’ve prepared a fresh Bitcoin analysis for you. 🔹 First off, I stand firmly behind my long-term targets of **127,000 – 137,000 – 146,000**. I previously shared these levels with you in a weekly analysis. 🔍 Now let’s shift to the 1-day chart: What is Bitcoin telling us right now? 📉 If the **112,000 level breaks downward**, we could enter a correction phase toward **102,000** or even **99,500**. I expect strong buying interest to return from those zones. 📈 After that, we’re facing a key resistance structure between **123,000 – 120,000**. But I believe this zone will also be broken—because we’re in an **uptrend**, and… 💬 **The trend is our friend. Never forget that.**
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by TraderTilki
90
Is the AI Trade Done for Now?AI has been a dominant theme for months, but some traders may think the robots are getting tired. Today’s idea highlights a few key stocks in the technology sector associated with the trend. First is Microsoft, which jumped on July 31 after strong results but failed to hold. It subsequently made a series of lower highs, and is now breaking the bottom of that triangle. MSFT also closed under its 21-day exponential moving average for the first time since mid-April. MACD has been falling as well. Those signals may suggest its short-term trend has morphed from positive to negative. Palantir has performed similarly. The software company gapped to new highs but then failed to hold and is now lower than it was the day of the news: Third, Advanced Micro Devices more than doubled between late March and mid-August. But this weekly chart shows it stalling at $187.28, a peak from April 2024: Finally, MSFT, PLTR and AMD are some of the most active underliers in the options market. That could help some traders take positions with calls and puts. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options. Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com . TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TradeStation
9