U.S. Bancorp Buy opportunity setting upU.S. Bancorp is a financial service holding company. The Company’s major lines of business are Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support. The Company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services
FUNDAMENTAL METRICS
Exchange- New York stock exchange
Market capitalization- $75.73B
Basic EPS- $3.27
Total Net revenue- $28.1B
Net Income- $5.4B
Average common shares outstanding- 1.5B
Total assets- $663B
Deposits- $512B
Provision for credit losses -$2.3B
Dividends declared per share- $1.93
Financial metrics as at year ended Dec 31, 2023, Market cap as per 24.10.2024 Q4 EARNINGS SUMMARY (Date of release 16.10.2024) (Next report date Jan 16,2025)
1. Net income of $1,714 million and diluted earnings per common share of $1.03. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 4.5%.
2. There shall be a share buy back program of $5 billion.
3. The bank is focused on organic growth & broadening their reach. Not interested in mergers & Acquisitions currently. The bank's latest large investment was the acquisition of Union Bank, which closed in December 2022. This meaningfully expanded its presence in California.
4. Net revenue of $6,864 million, including $4,166 million of net interest income on a taxable-equivalent basis
5. Noninterest income of $2,817 million driven by year-over-year increases in:
i. Commercial products revenue of 12.1%
ii. Trust and investment management fees of 6.4%
iii. Payment services revenue of 3.1%
iv. Mortgage banking revenue of 7.6%
6. Non-interest expenses dropped by 1% compared to last year, but increased slightly by 0.4% compared to the last quarter, when accounting for previous notable expenses.
7. The bank's return on common equity was 17.9%, return on assets was 1.03%, and efficiency ratio was 60.2%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RULES
1. Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)
2. Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- Corrective flag forming
3. Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- MACD 0 crossover to signal buys
4. Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- highlighted
5. Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price $67.35 (top of bigger correction)
Look for the trade on lower timeframe by identifying impulses & correction as shown
Recommendation:
Buy price range: $44.8- $48
Target price: $67
Top Shareholders
The Vanguard group- 8.64%
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company- 4.85%
State Street Global Advisors- 4.26%
MUFG Bank- 4.22%
Charles Schwab Investment managers- 2.92%
Fidelity Management- 2.66%
Community ideas
EURUSD - 4hrs ( Buy Trade Target Range 200 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name :EUR/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Long )
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Bullish Break
1.08600 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible Range Hvn
- Fixed Range Hvn
- Channel Break
- Choch Zone
Bearish Reversal
1.10400 Area
Solana May Move Down After Pattern CompletionSolana May Move Down After Pattern Completion
Solana has completed a large bearish harmonic pattern near $183.30.
The pattern looks solid, and given that it was created in a strong historical zone, the odds are that we may see Solana moving down as shown on the chart.
This time, we have an aggressive bearish scenario, because the market is also speculating about the US elections and USD strength.
However, this is the nature of this pattern—it can push the price down aggressively when we least expect it.
I am watching for support zones at $165.00 and $154.00.
Let's see how the market unfolds.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
BITCOIN Gaussian Channel telling you the rally has already begunBitcoin (BTCUSD) is illustrated here on the 1W time-frame from the 2011 Cycle until today. We've used the Gaussian Channel (GC) after a long time and the reason is simple. Since the August 05 2024 Low, it has been supporting the uptrend up to today's test of the All Time High (ATH).
** Gaussian October support every 4 years **
This continuous support is a critical feature moving forward as every time the GC held at this stage of the previous Cycles (October 2020, 2016 and 2012), BTC started its final (and most aggressive) Parabolic Rally of the Cycle.
** Resistance turned Support **
What's equally interesting is that during those stages, the price also re-tested and held the former Resistance (of the previous Higher High), turned it into a Support (while the GC held) and bounced to the Parabolic Rally. This is a remarkably consistent feature taking place every 4 years!
** The green GC length matters **
Now as to the GC in more detail. What we want you to keep from it, is that the green part of the GC has lasted in the previous Cycles 123, 144 and 148 weeks respectively, which translates to 861, 1008 and 1036 days, until it turned red. As a result, we can expect the current green phase to last until December 08 2025 (minimum) and June 01 2026 (maximum). It is more reasonable to expect the longer case as the recent Cycles tend to have stabilized most of their common time patterns.
The Bear Cycle tends to start when a 1W candle is closed below the GC. Until then, based on the parallel Channel Up patterns that encompass 3 Cycles each time, we can even expect a price as high as $200000 for this Cycle Top.
Do you think that's realistic? And if so, do you also expect the GC wave to support a parabolic rally all the way to the top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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GOLD 1H AND 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another PIPTASTIC day on the charts today with our 1H chart complete and 4h chart targets also smashed. We got the EMA5 cross and lock above 2762 opening 2772 and 2781, which were hit today completing this 1h chart idea (please see below)
Our 4h chart also had ema5 cross and lock above 2737, opening 2760 and 2779, which were both hit completing this range. We now have ema5 lock above 2779 opening the range above. We always take caution chasing targets all the way to the top and that why using our Goldlturns to buy dips is the safest way to chase targets in a new range
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2760 (EMA5 LOCK ABOVE 2737 WILL FURTHER CONFIRM THIS) - DONE
POTENTIALLY 2779 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2779 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2797
POTENTIALLY 2814
BEARISH TARGETS
2737 - DONE
2715
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2715 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2693 - 2669
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Spotting EUR/USD Rebound Potential with Key Technicals!Today, we’re analysing the EUR/USD daily chart to see how key technical indicators align to impact trading decisions. Here’s what’s shaping up:
➡️ Current Support: We have an uptrend in place since April which is coinciding with a 78.6% retracement around the 1.0760/75 level (spanning June lows to September peaks). Adding strength to this support zone is the RSI divergence, signalling a potential corrective rebound.
➡️ Resistance Levels to Watch: For potential rebound targets, I start with Fibonacci retracements and key resistances:
• First Resistance: The 200-day moving average aligns with the 23.6% retracement at 1.0872.
• Second Resistance: The 38.2% retracement around 1.0950, showing multiple resistance touches, making it a significant challenge for further price movement.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
USD/JPY rally facing fundamental test with US job openings data USD/JPY remains a play on the US interest rate outlook, sitting with an incredibly strong correlation with US two-year Treasury note futures of -0.98 over the past fortnight. When short-dated US debt futures have moved in a particular direction, USD/JPY has almost always done the opposite, mirroring US Treasury yields.
With there's no obvious reversal pattern in US two-year note futures in the right-hand chart, providing reason to be cautious about getting to aggressive, with the first of the week’s major US economic releases on the way in the form of JOLTs job openings for September, the risk of profit-taking in USD/JPY appears elevated.
After a surprise bounce in August, markets are looking for only a minor decline in openings of 50,000 to 7.99 million. Notably, this survey tends to bounce around and we haven’t seen back-to-back increases since late 2022. That hints at the potential for a downside surprise that could spark downside for US Treasury yields and USD/JPY which have run very hard in recent weeks.
If the price holds below 153.19, you could initiate shorts with a tight stop above for protection targeting a return to the 200DMA.
Good luck!
DS
What Is a Falling Knife in Trading? What Is a Falling Knife in Trading?
It’s often repeated that traders should ‘never catch a falling knife.’ This phrase highlights the risks of buying into a rapidly declining asset. Understanding what a falling knife is, its causes, and strategies for trading it may help traders navigate these sharp declines more effectively. This article delves into the intricacies of falling knives and offers insights on how to approach them with caution.
Understanding the Falling Knife Pattern
A falling knife consists of candlesticks that depict a significant rapid drop in an asset’s price, including stocks, commodities, forex pairs, indices, cryptocurrencies*, and more. This situation is often driven by negative news, poor earnings reports, or broader market sell-offs.
Identifying a falling knife involves recognising several key characteristics. Firstly, the decline is steep and sudden, typically marked by large red candlesticks on a price chart. The volume often increases as the price falls, indicating panic selling. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) might show oversold conditions, suggesting the asset is undervalued in the short term.
Common tools used to identify falling knives include:
- Moving Averages: When short-term moving averages cross below long-term moving averages, it signals bearish market sentiment.
- Bollinger Bands: Prices breaking below the lower band can indicate a falling knife.
- Volume Analysis: Spikes in trading volume often accompany these sharp declines, confirming the intensity of the sell-off.
In terms of candlesticks, a falling knife typically produces several bearish candles with long bodies and small wicks. They may appear as a large engulfing candle on a higher timeframe.
Recognising these patterns is crucial for traders. Misinterpreting a falling knife can lead to significant losses, as attempting to catch a falling knife—buying during the steep decline—without proper analysis can be risky. Instead, many traders wait for signs of stabilisation or reversal before considering an entry point.
Causes of Falling Knives
A falling knife generally occurs due to several specific catalysts, each capable of triggering a rapid and substantial decline in an asset's price. Understanding these causes, including technical factors, is essential for traders aiming to navigate such volatile situations effectively.
Economic Events and News Releases
One primary cause of falling knives is significant economic news. For instance, announcements of interest rate hikes by central banks can lead to widespread stock market sell-offs. Similarly, unexpected changes in economic indicators like unemployment rates, inflation, or GDP growth can trigger sharp declines. Traders react swiftly to such news, often leading to panic selling and steep price drops.
Earnings Reports and Company-Specific Issues
A falling knife stock pattern can be triggered by poor earnings reports or disappointing financial results from a company. When a company misses earnings expectations or issues negative guidance, investors may lose confidence, resulting in a rapidly falling stock. Additionally, company-specific problems such as legal issues, management scandals, or product recalls can lead to rapid price declines as investors reassess the company's prospects.
Broader Market Conditions and Trends
Broader market trends and conditions play a significant role in causing a falling knife in stocks and other assets. During periods of market volatility or bear markets, negative sentiment can spread quickly, leading to sharp declines in asset prices. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, widespread fear and uncertainty led to massive sell-offs across various sectors. Similarly, market corrections or crashes can create environments where falling knife patterns are more likely to occur.
Geopolitical Events
Geopolitical events such as wars, political instability, or trade tensions can cause abrupt market reactions. For instance, escalating trade disputes between major economies can lead to uncertainty and fear, causing investors and traders to exit positions rapidly.
Technical Factors
Technical analysis also plays a crucial role in falling knife patterns. Key technical factors include:
- Breaking Support Levels: When an asset's price falls below critical support levels, it can trigger further selling as traders perceive a lack of price stability.
- Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing overbought conditions can precede a falling knife as prices correct sharply. At the same time, the RSI may enter the oversold area during the falling knife pattern.
- Bearish Chart Patterns: Patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, or descending triangles can signal potential sharp declines, leading to falling knife scenarios.
Risks Associated with Falling Knife
Trading falling knives carries significant risks, primarily due to the rapid nature of the price declines. Understanding these risks is crucial for traders aiming to navigate such volatile situations.
Potential for Significant Losses
The most apparent risk is the potential for substantial financial losses. When an asset's price plummets, catching the falling knife can result in buying at prices that continue to drop, leading to immediate and severe losses.
False Bottoms and Dead Cat Bounces
Traders may mistakenly interpret temporary price stabilisations or minor recoveries as the end of the decline, only to face further drops. These false bottoms and dead cat bounces can trap traders in losing positions.
Increased Volatility
Falling knives are often accompanied by heightened market volatility, making it challenging to analyse short-term price movements. This volatility can result in rapid and unexpected changes in asset prices, complicating risk management.
Psychological Challenges
The psychological impact of trading falling knives should not be underestimated. The stress and emotional strain of dealing with sharp losses can lead to irrational decision-making, such as holding onto losing positions for too long or making impulsive trades.
Technical Analysis Limitations
While technical indicators can help identify potential entry points, they are not foolproof. The rapid and severe nature of falling knives can render technical analysis less reliable, as price movements may not follow traditional patterns.
Liquidity Issues
During sharp declines, liquidity can dry up, leading to wider spreads and slippage. This makes it harder to execute trades at desired prices, potentially exacerbating losses.
Examples of Falling Knife Events
Now, let’s take a look at a couple of falling knife examples. To start identifying your own falling knives, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to explore real-time charts across different asset classes.
Onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the Nasdaq 100
In early 2020, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic triggered a dramatic fall in global financial markets. The Nasdaq 100, heavily weighted with speculative tech stocks, experienced a sharp decline as investors reacted to the uncertainty and potential economic impact of the pandemic.
From mid-February to late March 2020, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by over 30%. This steep decline represented a classic falling knife pattern, characterised by rapid sell-offs and increased market volatility over the course of several weeks. Traders who attempted to buy into the market too early faced significant losses as the market continued to fall before eventually stabilising and recovering later in the year.
EUR/USD After Strong US Inflation Data
On April 10, 2024, the release of March US inflation data led to a falling knife event in the EUR/USD currency pair. Traders had been closely monitoring the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, anticipating that a lower-than-forecast reading would prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later in the year.
The forecast was set at 3.4%, with a lower or at-forecast figure expected to weaken the dollar. Instead, the headline CPI YoY reading came in exactly at 3.5%, defying expectations. This unexpected data triggered a rally in the dollar and a sharp sell-off in EUR/USD. The pair plummeted rapidly, and the decline persisted until the end of the trading week, illustrating how sudden economic data releases can lead to sharp and sustained price drops.
Strategies for Trading Falling Knives
Understanding the catalyst behind a falling knife is crucial for determining whether it’s likely to rebound soon or persist as a trend. Events that cause fundamental repricing, such as poor earnings data, significant or unexpected news/economic releases, or unique risk events like currency intervention or financial crises, often lead to prolonged falling knives.
In contrast, temporary sharp corrections might be due to overreactions to already priced-in news or transient market fears. Recognising these catalysts helps traders decide whether to take a position or wait for volatility to subside.
Additionally, the timeframe of the falling knife provides valuable context. A falling knife on a 5-minute chart could indicate a sharp intraday decline, potentially recovering before the trading day ends. Conversely, on a 4-hour or daily chart, a sharp decline may suggest a continued downtrend over several days or weeks. Traders can use this information to look for short opportunities on lower timeframes or prepare for longer-term moves.
Common Strategies Traders Use
The insights gained from analysing market conditions can help traders to decide whether to short the falling knife or stay out of the market and wait for a bottom.
Shorting the Falling Knife
Traders looking to short a falling knife should exercise caution. Increased volatility during sharp declines can make it difficult to set appropriate stop-loss levels without a sub-par risk/reward ratio.
The best entry can potentially be found during a pullback. As some traders think the price is bottoming out, their stop losses being triggered as the price continues to decline can fuel another leg lower. Traders can look for breakouts from bearish chart patterns like rising wedges, bear flags, or bear pennants.
Alternatively, waiting for the bullish structure of the pullback (higher highs and higher lows) to break down into a lower low and lower high can indicate the next leg lower is underway. This approach offers traders confirmation that the knife is continuing to fall and an appropriate place to set a stop loss above the pullback’s high.
Buying After a Falling Knife
For those looking to catch the bottom, confirmation is essential. Using a pair of moving averages, such as 20-period and 50-period EMAs, can help. When the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, and the price closes above both, it suggests the downtrend might be over. However, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD can falsely signal market turns during steep declines, but they may have some value on higher timeframes.
Generally speaking, one of the potentially effective strategies for catching a falling knife is to wait for the price to break above the previous lower high of the downtrend. This would demonstrate that the market has been able to break above a point at which it previously found resistance, allowing traders to potentially switch their bias to bullish and seek entry points.
The Role of Patience and Discipline in Trading Falling Knives
Patience and discipline are paramount when trading falling knives. Impulsive trades driven by the fear of missing out can lead to significant losses. Traders are required to wait for clear signs of trend reversal or continuation before entering a trade. This involves adhering to predefined strategies and not deviating due to emotional reactions to volatile market movements.
Likewise, maintaining discipline in setting and following stop-loss levels, adhering to risk management principles, and avoiding premature entries can potentially enhance trading effectiveness.
The Bottom Line
Navigating falling knives requires careful analysis and disciplined trading strategies. By understanding the causes and employing effective techniques, traders can potentially better manage these volatile situations. To explore these strategies further and enhance your trading skills, consider opening an FXOpen account. With the right tools and knowledge, you can approach falling knives with greater confidence and precision.
FAQ
What Is a Falling Knife in Trading?
A falling knife in trading refers to a rapid and significant decline in an asset's price, often triggered by negative news, poor earnings reports, or broader market sell-offs. This sharp drop can be volatile and difficult to analyse, making it challenging for traders to time their entries and exits.
Should You Ever Try to Catch a Falling Knife?
Catching a falling knife is highly risky. Therefore, the theory states it’s not recommended for most traders. The rapid decline in price can continue further than anticipated, leading to significant losses. To minimise risk, traders wait for signs of stabilisation or reversal before considering an entry.
How to Catch a Falling Knife?
Catching a falling knife involves identifying potential reversal points through technical analysis. Traders often wait for confirmation, such as a break above previous resistance levels or a moving average crossover. Patience and strict risk management, including setting tight stop-loss orders, are essential when attempting this strategy.
What Is a Falling Knife in Crypto*?
In the crypto* market, a falling knife refers to a sudden and steep decline in the price of a cryptocurrency*. This can be triggered by regulatory news, security breaches, or market sentiment shifts. Due to cryptocurrencies*' high volatility, falling knives can be particularly severe and difficult to analyse.
*At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rule. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: H&S amid Surging Wheat Supply1. Introduction: Bearish Opportunity in Wheat amid Rising Supply
With the U.S. Grain Stocks Wheat (USGSW) report showing a notable rise in wheat stock levels, a bearish scenario is unfolding for wheat futures. This increase in supply, which could drive prices downward, aligns with a technical setup showing potential for a bearish breakout.
From a technical perspective, Wheat futures exhibit a Complex Head and Shoulders formation, signaling a possible breakdown as prices approach a critical support level. By combining the supply dynamics and technical formation, this article outlines a Bear Put Spread strategy, ideal for capitalizing on this bearish outlook with limited risk.
2. Fundamental Analysis: Rising Wheat Stock Levels
The most recent USGSW report has recorded wheat stock levels breaking upward to 1.98 billion bushels, up from the previous level of 1.779 billion bushels. This shift indicates a higher supply of wheat available in the market, which, in the absence of proportional demand, typically should result in price pressure to the downside.
Higher wheat stock levels often dampen demand sentiment, as markets anticipate reduced scarcity and increased availability. Such fundamentals offer a conducive backdrop for a bearish approach, supporting the downside breakout anticipated in the technical setup.
3. Technical Analysis: Complex Head and Shoulders Formation
The technical landscape for Wheat futures supports the bearish case, with a Complex Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the chart. This pattern is characterized by multiple peaks (heads) flanked by smaller peaks (shoulders), indicating a potential reversal from recent highs.
The critical neckline for this formation sits at 585'6. A break below this level would signal the likelihood of further downside movement. The target for this setup aligns with a UFO support zone at 552'4, which serves as an optimal price point to close the trade if the breakout confirms.
4. Trade Setup: Bear Put Spread on Wheat Futures (Ticker: ZWH2025)
To capitalize on the bearish setup, a Bear Put Spread is employed. This strategy allows for limited downside risk while still offering attractive profit potential. Here are the specifics:
o Contract Details for ZWH2025 (Wheat Futures):
Contract Size: 5,000 bushels
Tick Size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel (equivalent to $12.50 per tick)
Point value of 1 future unit: $50
Point value of 1 option unit: $50
Expiration: December 27, 2024
Margin Requirement: While the exact margin depends on the broker, the requirement typically ranges between $1,500 and $2,000 per futures contract. The margin for a Bear Put Spread in Wheat futures options is limited to the debit paid (15.2 points *$50 = $760).
o Options Strategy: Bear Put Spread
Buy the 585 put option at 25.84 and Sell the 550 put option at 10.64, both expiring on December 27, 2024.
The net debit paid is 25.84 – 10.64 = 15.2 points = $760
This spread provides a capped-risk opportunity for profiting from a downside move in Wheat futures.
o Risk Management:
While stop loss orders can be used, no stop loss is required given the limited-risk nature of the Bear Put Spread. The maximum potential loss is predefined by the cost of the spread.
5. Options Risk Profile Analysis
The Bear Put Spread strategy involves buying a put option at a higher strike price (585) and selling a put option at a lower strike price (550). This configuration:
Maximizes potential profit if Wheat futures drop to or below the 550 level by expiration.
Caps maximum loss at the initial cost of the spread, regardless of how the underlying Wheat futures move.
For this setup, the maximum potential profit is the difference between the strikes (585 - 550) minus the premium paid = 19.80 ($990). The maximum potential loss is the cost of the spread, making it a controlled-risk strategy suited to volatile or downward-trending markets.
6. Trade Execution Plan
Entry: Initiate the Bear Put Spread as Wheat futures break below the 585'6 neckline, confirming the downside breakout.
Target: Close the trade at 552'4, which aligns with a nearby UFO support zone, marking a logical exit point.
7. Risk Management Considerations
Effective risk management is essential in any options strategy, and the Bear Put Spread inherently offers several risk control advantages:
Limited Risk: By buying a put and selling a lower-strike put, the Bear Put Spread creates a defined risk position, capping potential losses at the initial premium paid for the spread.
No Stop Loss Required: With maximum risk predetermined by the cost of the spread, there's no need for a stop loss, which could otherwise be triggered prematurely in a volatile market.
Predefined Entry and Exit: This strategy's effectiveness hinges on precise entry (below the 585'6 neckline) and a clear target at 552'4. By maintaining these predefined parameters, the trade maximizes its alignment with both technical and fundamental setups.
This trade setup offers a balanced approach, allowing for downside exposure with risk under control, making it well-suited for periods of volatility or substantial downward moves.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
trailblazing women who took Wall Street by storm these incredible women have paved a way for female investors and traders around the world showing great resilience and fearless mentality despite facing gender discrimination going on to achieve great things in the financial field, motivating the future generation of young women that they too can achieve the unthinkable.
1. HETTY GREEN
the witch of wall street
also referred to as "the woman who loved money" born November 21, 1834 and also believed to have been the richest woman in America before the time of her passing, Hetty Green started her financial/business journey from a young age through the influence of her father who was a successful agent, oil manufacturer, and Quaker, who encouraged her to read and study financial texts when she was a young girl, he believed that even women needed to understand the dealings of money, business and overall how the financial world operates.
She is best known for turning an inheritance of between 3 - 7 million to 100 million U.S dollars approximately $2.5 billion in today's money. She did this by investing in U.S government bonds, stocks, real estate and railroads and providing financial support during crises, most especially the Panic of 1907, making her a reputable investor and financier, using a buy low, sell high strategy and impeccable psychology facing markets militantly and unafraid even in times of panic.
2. VICTORIA WOODHALL
the first woman to run for presidency
born September 23, 1838, Victoria came from a very poor background, with the influence of their father she and her sister sold herbs and potions posing as spiritualists and healers they caused them to live a on the run from one place to another due to unsatisfied customers/patients.
Their nomadic lifestyle led them to Manhattan were they caught the attention of railroad magnate Cornelius Vanderbilt, who it was believed they helped him keep in contact with his dead wife he in return offered them financial advice and through this connection they were able to open the first female owned brokerage in wall street in 1870 called WOODHULL, CLAFLIN and CO with clients of high society women, rich widows and high value prostitutes, this become a success earning them over $700 000 about 2million today. She used this money to further her goals and fund her campaign to run for presidency.
3. ISABEL BENHAM
madam railroad
born 1909, in the 1920s Isabel enrolled at a women only college called Bryn Mawr in Pennsylvania, with a strong desire to study economics and work in wall street it has a great tragedy to find that the school offered no economics courses but Isabel insisted the college offer economics studies and made history by being 1 of 5 women to graduate from the college with a degree in economics.
after graduation, living in times of the great depression also facing daily gender discrimination this did not stop her from pursuing her dreams to work in wall street, she started a side hustle by selling magazine subscriptions and later landed a job as a bond strategist on wall street bond house R.W Pressprich and Co. and due to her resilience and hard work providing accurate reports of the railroad industry became their first female partner and first woman as a partner of a wall street bond house and first woman to be appointed Board of Directors for a railroad.
4. MURIEL SIEBERT
the first lady of finance
born 1928 without graduating from any college her finance career started by being a finance research trainee and grew her expertise by working in various brokerages.
through hard work and determination by year 1967, despite numerous failed attempts and rejection she became the first woman to have a seat on the BYSE being the only woman among 1,365 men which was a remarkable achievement.
she went on to co-found Siebert and Co a broker- dealer in 1969 and when the the NYSE jettisoned it's 183 year old tradition allowing it's members to negotiate broker commissions her company became America's first discount brokerage also being owned by a woman.
by year 1977 she hit another incredible career milestone by being appointed superintendent of Banks for New York state, overseeing all NEW YORK banks with no banks failing in her 5 year term.
5. GERALDINE WEISS
grand dame of dividents
considered one of the best female investors/ traders of the 20th century, learning about investing by reading investing texts like Security Analysis by BENJAMIN GRAHAM and studying business and finance earning a degree at the University Of California.
with her advanced knowledge about investing she was still unable to get any job position higher than secretary due to gender discrimination in the male dominated industry but this did not put out her fuel and and undying desire to become be involved in the investment community and by age 40 she started her investment newsletter called "Investment Quality Trends" under a pseudonym "G. Weiss" to hide her gender as at the time many believed no woman can make successful investments and did this for a decade with her subscribers thinking she is a male it was only in 1977 when she appeared on TV program "wall street with Louis Rukeyser" that she revealed her gender this now with her newsletter being a success with accurate analysis asserting that dividend yield is a key valuation measure that how she got her nickname.
hope this inspires more women to be more active in the trading world.
Whatever women do they must do twice as well as men to be thought half their inferior. Luckily, this is not difficult.
– Charlotte Whitton
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as currencynerd
Bitcoin Predictions for 2025 & Beyond: Who’s Eyeing $1 Million?If one thing is certain on this earth, it’s that Bitcoin BTC/USD predictions are as volatile as the coin’s price. In this Idea, we’ve gathered some notable Bitcoin price predictions with their respective time stamps.
Teaser: it’s a diverse set of characters ranging from bullish Wall Street pros and tech visionaries to some (permabear) economists and professors. Let’s check it out!
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) : $1 million
Cathie Wood is no stranger to making waves with her predictions. The risk-taking tech investor has said Bitcoin could reach a jaw-dropping $1 million by 2030, offering the stereotype attributes of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and increasing institutional adoption. Wood's more optimistic projection sees it soaring as high as $1.5 million in the same timeframe.
Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy CEO) : $1 million
Michael Saylor, the ultimate Bitcoin maxi (borderline Bitcoin fanatic) who believes in total Bitcoin dominance , has been accumulating Bitcoin for his coin-hoarding company’s reserves and predicts it will eventually hit $1 million, emphasizing its superiority as a store of value compared to fiat currencies and gold.
Chamath Palihapitiya (Venture Capitalist) : $1 million
Chamath Palihapitiya has previously suggested Bitcoin could eventually hit $1 million, driven by macroeconomic instability and as a hedge against traditional financial systems.
Robert Kiyosaki (Author of Rich Dad Poor Dad) : $500,000
Kiyosaki predicts Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2025 due to the collapse of fiat currencies and increasing inflation.
Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital) : $500,000
Mike Novogratz is riding the bullish wave as well, predicting Bitcoin will hit $500,000 within the next three years. He believes this surge will be driven by Bitcoin's fixed amount of tokens (21 million) and growing adoption.
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss (Gemini Exchange Co-Founders) : $500,000
These crypto twins reiterate that Bitcoin could eventually reach $500,000 due to its potential to replace gold as a store of value.
Tim Draper (Venture Capitalist) : $250,000
Tim Draper has long maintained a prediction that Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by 2024, citing broader acceptance and institutional adoption not just of Bitcoin but the broader crypto market .
🏢 Institutional Investors and Their BTC Targets
Pantera Capital : $148,000
Crypto hedge fund Pantera Capital expects Bitcoin to rise to around $148,000 during the next four-year halving cycle (ending April 2028), based on historical trends.
JPMorgan : $45,000
Taking a more conservative stance, investment banking giant JPMorgan JPM projects a price target of $45,000, provided Bitcoin continues to gain acceptance as a risk-adjusted alternative to gold XAU/USD .
Standard Chartered : $120,000
Recently, UK-based bank Standard Chartered updated its forecast, predicting Bitcoin will rise to $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Bernstein Research : $150,000
Research firm Bernstein Research predicts Bitcoin could hit $150,000, largely due to ETF demand and supply reductions following the 2024 halving .
🎢 Other Bitcoin Believers and Their BTC Targets
Tom Lee (Fundstrat) : $180,000
Luke Broyles (Bitcoin advocate) : $3 million
Raoul Pal (Real Vision CEO) : $1 million
Adam Back (Blockstream CEO) : $500,000
Anthony Pompliano (Crypto Investor and Influencer) : $500,000
John McAfee (Programmer, Businessman) : $1 million
Mark Yusko (Morgan Creek Capital) : $250,000
🚀 Bitcoin Maxis with No Price Targets
Bill Miller (Billionaire Investor)
Miller has stated that Bitcoin could go much higher, without a precise target. He supports the belief that it will outperform traditional financial assets over the long term.
Paul Tudor Jones (Hedge Fund Manager)
Jones has likened Bitcoin to an early investment in tech stocks like Apple AAPL , implying that it has significant potential for value increase.
Stanley Druckenmiller (Billionaire Investor)
Druckenmiller has suggested that Bitcoin could be a "store of value" better than gold and expects its price to rise dramatically.
Jack Dorsey (CEO of Block, Co-Founder of Twitter)
Dorsey, another devoted Bitcoin proponent, hasn’t given an exact price prediction but has expressed strong belief that Bitcoin will become the currency of the internet, suggesting a massive increase in value.
🧸 The Permabears: Those Who Want to See Bitcoin Burn
Joseph Stiglitz - In contrast to the bullish predictions, Nobel Prize-winning Economist Stiglitz has argued that Bitcoin could be “worth just $100 by 2028.”
Kenneth Rogoff - Harvard professor and former chief economist at the IMF, Rogoff claims Bitcoin is more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000 by 2028.
Nouriel Roubini - An economist known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, Roubini has harshly criticized Bitcoin as a bubble and a "scam."
Bill Gates - The co-founder of Microsoft has expressed skepticism about Bitcoin and its ability to provide real value to the economy.
Warren Buffett - The legendary investor has famously referred to Bitcoin as "rat poison squared," expressing concerns about its lack of intrinsic value and speculative bubble characteristics.
Jamie Dimon - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase has repeatedly criticized Bitcoin, calling it a fraud and stating that it has no value.
Peter Schiff - An outspoken critic of Bitcoin and a proponent of gold, Schiff argues that Bitcoin is a bubble and that it will eventually collapse in value.
Larry Fink - The CEO of BlackRock has indicated he's no fan of Bitcoin, viewing it more as a speculative asset than a legitimate currency. More recently, after BlackRock launched the biggest spot Bitcoin ETF , Fink has warmed up to Bitcoin saying it’s a “legit financial instrument.”
Now, over to you: What’s your take? Is Bitcoin on a rocket ship to $1 million, or are the critics right to be cautious? Drop your thoughts—and favorite Bitcoin predictions—in the comments below!
AUDCAD Descending Triangle: Key Support Levels to WatchAUDCAD moved up from 0.9060 to reach 0.9375, and now forming a descending triangle pattern. This pattern usually appears when the price is making lower highs, meaning sellers are pushing it down, but there’s still a solid support level holding it steady, around 0.9165.
Currently, AUDCAD is trading at 0.9175, and it seems likely to keep dropping. The first level to watch is 0.9110, if the price breaks below this, it could continue down to 0.9060, where the previous rally began.
If sellers keep control, we might see more downward movement. But if support holds, there’s a chance for a bounce.
Dow Jones Futures Bullish Move Into Resistance 450 Ticks 10 to 1I will be looking for a Long entry with a limit order at the price of 42,420 which is the High price of the September FOMC. I will use a 50 tick stop and target the resistance level of 42,975.
I believe this week will be bullish as the down move from earlier was counter trend. I closed my short position on Friday with the expectation that price will bounce off of September's FOMC High.
Sunday, price opened up with a fat bullish bar and gapped up 0.30% right out of the gate. This tells me that they are going for shorts back up to grab stops and retrace.
The space between resistance is a huge clue for me that this is where they are targeting. The 42,975 price was used as support multiple times but not as resistance.
The three pushes into the September's FOMC High indicates the down move may be the end and the move opposite is in way. Since the high was made during the September FOMC release, it has not been used as a solid support level. It was only used as a mean reversion level that price has been mean reverting around.
Bitcoin Prints the First Golden Cross in Almost Exactly One YearWe'll have to see if it sticks but BTC has just printed a golden cross. The crazy thing is, the last golden cross occurred on October 29th 2023! This golden cross was 2 days short of exactly hitting the 1 year mark. We all know what happened after the last golden cross, over the next 4.5 months the price increased by over 116%.
If you take the time to study Bitcoin's price history, it is very clear that Bitcoin has been running in 4-year market cycles. This is especially true for the last two market cycles. From bear market bottom to the next bear market bottom, the 2015 to 2018 market cycle was 1432 days in length, and the length of the 2018 to 2022 market cycle was 1438 days. Even the elapsed times between events (bottom to halving, halving to peak, and peak to bottom) during each of these cycles is very consistent.
Obviously, this market cycle trend doesn't have to continue, but I believe that it will, at least for this cycle. If that is the case then I wouldn't expect the post halving bull market to begin until late October or November of this year. Looking back at the previous two cycles, the 2016 bull market started 259 days after the halving, and the 2020 bull market started 149 days after the halving. We are now 192 days past the halving that occurred on April 19th.
There is always a chance that I am totally wrong and the peak in March was the peak for this market cycle and it will be all down hill from here. But, I believe the probability of that is very low. But this is just how I am approaching this market cycle, every investor needs to do their own research and make their own decisions. I also make my decisions based on my long-term view and long time horizon.
Crude Oil Smoked Again. Will the downtrend continue?Hey, guys. Noticed this evening Crude Oil is down yet again. In this video, taking a look at the technicals and whether this downtrend will continue or not. Oil is in a little bit of a confusing spot, but there is certainly good reason to think the weakness will continue. Hope this video will give you a closer look at the Oil chart and provide helpful information as you develop your thesis around this asset. Will the downtrend continue? Will we get a counter trend move? It will be interesting to watch this develop to be sure! NYMEX:CL1!
Hope you enjoy the video, and best of luck out there!
Short-term EURUSD ideaAfter yesterday's better than expected flash PMIs from Germany, we saw EURUSD finding some buying interest. Let's see if we can get a larger correction to the upside.
EASYMARKETS:EURUSD
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Apple Calls Be careful!!!News: Apple will be reporting earnings on Thursday October 31.
Apple has a high of 237.49 that was created on Tuesday October 15, 2024. This high created has topped the previous high 237.23 created on Monday July 15, 24.
Pattern we are trading is is a ascending triangle tu the up side on the daily and 4hr time frame.
Every pull back has created a Higher Low (HL) which continues bullish momentum.
In the ascending triangle pattern, i have created two trendlines indicating support.
The dash line being the weak and the solid line being the strongest.
Gold Price Outlook: Key Insights for Next Weeks Trading DecisionAs we head into the new week, gold prices remain resilient, fueled by heightened Middle East tensions and U.S. election uncertainty that keeps investors seeking safe-haven assets. Despite dollar strength and recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold has surged over 32% this year, reflecting sustained demand in the face of global instability.
In this analysis, we cover critical areas for buyers and sellers alike, focusing on structural patterns, market psychology, and potential trade opportunities you won’t want to miss. Whether you're watching the price action or setting up entry points, these insights will equip you with a clear roadmap for the week ahead.
Will gold continue its strong performance, or could a new catalyst shift the trend?
📌 Stay tuned as we navigate the next big moves in the Gold market!
#goldprice #goldtrading #investing #commodities #marketanalysis #tradingstrategy #goldforecast #geopolitics #election2024 #safehaven #financialmarkets #forex #daytrading #swingtrading #middleeast #usdollar #economicuncertainty📺🔔💼
Disclaimer Notice:
Trading in the foreign exchange market and other instruments carries a high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content provided here is for educational purposes only. Evaluate your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
how I find support and resistance of a trendTo understand Price Action, first thing we do is to look for (S) and (R) to help us read strength&weakness of price.
This video will explain how I find Support and Resistance of a trend.
I will provide example of what your chart will looks like throughout trading hours.
how to know which candle to draw (S)/(R).
NUBUSDT Looks BullishLooking at NUBUSDT , let's do a top-down analysis starting from the Weekly down to the 4Hourly timeframe to see where price is headed.
Weekly Timeframe
For the first time since the listing of NUBUSDT on Gate.io exchange, we're starting to see what looks like a break out of the down trend which lasted for about 24 weeks since its ATH (All Time High) in April 22nd 2024.
The current corrective move on the weekly timeframe, which runs counter to the prevailing trend, is both healthy and expected as it aligns with the natural wave structure of the market, where movements typically follow an impulse-corrective-impulse pattern.
After each impulsive move, a corrective phase is expected, followed by another impulse originating from the correction to confirm the trend. In this case, we should be expecting price to break the previous Weekly LH (Lower High) to establish the trend. Anything short of this means, price is not yet ready for any up trend.
Daily Timeframe
One interesting thing about the Daily timeframe price action on this coin is that since September 5th 2024, we've been having series of HH (Higher Highs) and HL (Higher Lows). These are the type of structures I look out for when looking to take a buy position. The daily price action is also in confluence with the weekly were we saw a 24 Weeks break of trend line, all hinting a possible start of an uptrend in the long term.
The price level we are currently is an interesting one as price seems to have broken the daily trend line. The question now is, would this trend line hold or break? The truth is, not even the coin creators can answer that question. The only thing we can do at this point is check what the price is doing so we know what to expect and what to do if our expectation comes to fruition.
Let's look at this level critically. Though price seems to have broken the daily trendline, it did not close below it. This is very important as it shows rejection, indicating buyers are willing to defend that area.
Another observation would be the inverted hammer daily candle at the trendline. This candle pattern usually signifies price reversal especially when it appears at an area of interest like this one.
This type of area is where I would be looking for an entry, but first I'll need to see a break of structure from the current corrective wave to take any buy position, so let's see what the 4 Hourly timeframe would say in the next section.
I will only be bearish on this coin if price breaks and stays below the Daily HL (Higher Low) at 0.00978 price. As long as we're above that price line, I'll be dreaming Lambo.
4 Hourly Timeframe
Now on the 4 Hourly, we can see falling wedge which is a reversal pattern. It's interesting because of where this falling wedge is forming. Looking at the price structure of the 4 Hourly timeframe we're in a downtrend market. So for me to take a position I would love to see a break of the 4 Hourly Lower High (LH) and a correction after that. It's in the corrective phase of the 4 Hourly that I would look for my entry signal.
That said, if the 4 Hourly price action is not able to break the current 4 Hourly LH at 0.02188 then I'll not be interested in any buy position
Note: I do not own NUB coin, and not planning to own it either. This here is just for education and learning purpose.
My trading rule is simple, don't take position based on what you anticipate price will do, take position only when price does what you anticipate and presents you a point of entry.
Catalyst of the Bull Rally: "Retail"Understanding the Past
When we examine the number of retail Bitcoin investors, we see that it stood at 43 million in January 2023. From that point onward, the number of individual investors increased steadily over 12 months, rising by 22% to reach 52.4 million, prior to the acceptance of Spot ETFs. Following the approval of Spot ETFs, this figure saw a slight decline, reaching 51.6 million by the end of February 2024.
However, the "ETF Bull" rally, led by the momentum of Spot ETFs, pushed the retail investor count upward, peaking in June 2024 at 54.14 million. After this peak, a downward trend in retail investor numbers began.
The Impact of Retail Investors on Price
Historical data reveals a close relationship between the growth in the number of retail investors and Bitcoin’s price movement.
Returning to January 2023, we observe that as the retail investor count rose significantly, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 300% in the same period. However, after reaching its peak in June 2024, the retail investor count plateaued, and Bitcoin’s price also struggled to reach new highs thereafter.
Conclusion
The rise in the number of retail investors remains a crucial catalyst for Bitcoin bulls. If this trend sees a strong resurgence, with retail investor interest growing substantially once again, Bitcoin's price could be poised to test new highs. Just as in the past, retail interest could provide the needed tailwind for Bitcoin; hence, renewed growth in the retail investor base may offer a vital opportunity for the next bull rally.
Thanks for reading.
