Educational: AB=CD pattern w/ BTC exampleOne fairly easy and useful pattern for determining reversals is the AB=CD pattern.
The pattern simply looks for two rising or falling legs up or down respectively. Then one simply measures the retracement level from point B followed by the projection from C (luckily tradingview has a tool to assist with this). If these values equal a 0.618 or 0.786 retracement followed by a 1.272 or 1.618 projection respectively, the pattern is likely to indicate a reversal of the current trend. For example, above we can clearly see the pattern almost perfectly matched the required levels of 0.618 and 1.272.
However, no pattern is guaranteed, so it is always recommended to seek out confirmation. As we can see in the above example, there is bearish reversal divergence that can be seen on both RSI and MACD (dotted green lines), whereby price is rising while oscillators are falling, indicating an even greater likelihood for a reversal.
Upon confirmation of a reversal, one can then target Fibonacci retracement levels as key points of interest as can be seen above.
A nice part about this pattern is how simple it is to spot and draw out particularly with tools available on tradingview.
Hopefully you are able to use this pattern as another useful tool in your arsenal!
Educational
Your Weekly FUD Digest Goooooood Morning/Afternoon/Evening Friends!
Welcome to your first weekly digest of Bitcoin Bull Market FUD!
We'll keep these brief - enough to fill a few tweets at most. Let's begin!
1: BIDEN TAX PLAN PROPOSAL: NO. Not happening. For the politically illiterate, any increases in tax in ANY form require consent (a new law) of both houses of Congress. Many Democrats are wedded to Wall Street, so don't expect any tax increase to pass save for a minor bump on earnings. At worst we're talking a few percentage point increase.
2: Something that came across TV's Pages: No, Janet Yellen cannot change tax policy. She also has no authority to push new bills. She sincerely does not have that power, at all!
At most she can tweet or chat with Biden and complain or ask, but the same principle as #1 appplies here.
3: Pi Cycles...momentum...bear orgasms: As seen on the chart, every bull cycle in the last five years has experienced 20-50% corrections. We never experienced a major correction in Jan/Feb due to Musk's involvement, so this could be seen as overdue. Pi cycles are also a huge buzz word in the last week - remember charting is subjective and supposedly objective metrics like the Pi cycle must apply data backwards to the present. TLDR: Pi cycles and other new technical indicators must extrapolate old information onto the current situation so are inherently unreliable or can "fit" the narrative when needed.
That's all for now folks :)
Take care, invest what you can lose, and be responsible always.
Love, Jemkie 🦊
PS: If you like my ideas, send ETH or Uni to my wallet :)
0x9b143471BDa90f672f8DB6E0b837d2b7B5dc2484
NICE BEARISH STRUCTURE FORMING!If we see a break of the current psychological level then according to the laws of supply and demand, there is a cause for price to push above the current highs,remove the liquidity and take out the imbalance of buyers and sellers in the market.Like and comment if you agree with my post!
Bitcoin: Intro into Chart Set-UpYou are going to start with a white screen most likely; my number-one recommendation is to change it to a dark background to save your eyes... Right click on the graph, and scroll down until you find color scheme or something like that and choose dark. Once you get use to your own graph I would recommend right clicking on the graph and play with the settings to find what works best for you. The next published chart will show you how to add indicators. I will be showing you indicators that have been tried and true to me, but feel free to try anything your heart desires so that you can create what you like and to be your own artist. P.S., CHEERS!
Golden Candle Stick Pattern's - You Have To CheckBULLISH PATTERN'S
-----------
Hammer is identical in shape to hanging
man but the difference is that while hammer
occurs is a down trend ,
the hanging man pattern occurs in uptrend
Inverted Hammer : An Inverte Hammer Is usually observed
at the end of downtrend ,this pattern is similar to
Shooting Star and differs only in
the position where is occurs
DragonFly Doji : This is partly a bullish pattern , Open .
Close and High Prices of the candle are same . Dragonfly Doji
implies That , buyers and sellers were in a tough fight
and by the end of the session : buyers were able to push the
prices to its open price
Bullish Engulfing : A Bullish Engulfing pattern is generally observed
at the end of a downtrend , A large green candle
engulfs a small red candle showing the strength of
bulls , prior bearish trend coverts to bullish trend
Piercing Pattern : A Piercing Pattern is similar to bullish engulfing pattern
in a way that both of them appear near he end of a downtrend , but the green
candle doesn't engulf the red candle
completely instead closes half way through it
Bullish Harami : in a bullish harami . 1st candle is a bear candle and the
2nd candle is a bull candle .
bull candle has a small body compared to bear candle
Morning Star : This Pattern Is observed at the end of a downtrend ,
first candle is a bear candle . second candle is a doji with gapdown opening
and he third candle is a strong bull candle with a gap up opening length
of bull candle's body is generally largest than the bear candle
-----------------
BEARISH PATTERN'S
Hanging Man : A hanging Man is a Candlestick pattern with a long wick
below the candle's body and a little to no wick above the candle's body
the length of the bloody is usually 1 / 3r of the length of the lower wick
Shooting Star : Shooting Star is simply an inversion of the hanging man pattern
it has a mall body and a long wick above it . with little to n wick below shooting
start is usually observed in an uptrend and signifies trend exhaustion
Gravestone Doji : This is Partly a bearish pattern open . close and low prices
of the candle are same gravestone doji implies that , buyers and sellers
were in a tough fight and by the end of the session
sellers were able to push the prices to its open price
Dark Cloud Cover : A Dark Cloud Cover Pattern is Similar to Bearish Engulfing
pattern in a way the both of them appear near the end of an uptrend
but the red candle docent engulf the green candle completely
instead closes half way through it
Bearish Engulfing : A Bearish Engulfing pattern is generally observed at the
end of and uptrend , A large Red Candle Engulfs a small green candle showing
the strength of bears , prior bullish trend converts to bearish trend
Bearish Harami : in a bearish harami . 1st candle is a bull candle
and the 2nd candleis a bear candle
bear candle has a small body compared to bull candle
Evening Star : This Pattern Is Observed at the end of an uptrend first candle
is a bull candle , second canle is a Doji with Gap up opening and the third candle
is a strong bear candle wit a gap down opening . length of bear candle's body
is generally larger than the bull candle
The game of probabilities (%)In this article we will explain some fundamental truths about trading that any beginner should know in order to start being successful:
1. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
Because any given set of independent variables that define an edge has a random distribution of wins and losses. In other words, based on your performance, you should know that from 100 trades that you take you should have 65 wins and 35 losses for example. The unknown part is the sequence of that distribution. You can have 10 losses in a row or 20 wins in a row. This fundamental truth makes trading a game of probabilities . When you know and believe that, a win or a loss doesn’t have the same meaning as before.
2. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
To achieve consistency, you must agree that trading isn't about wishing, guessing, or collecting information to decide if the next trade will succeed. The only proof you need is that the variables you're using to describe an edge (your system) are present at any given time. You're adding random variables to your trading regime if you are using "other" facts beyond the parameters of your edge to determine whether or not to take the trade. If you are not sure about your edge you won’t feel confident about it and if you don’t feel confident you will experience fear.
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any set of parameters that define your edge.
If you believe that trading is about being right, when you experience a loss, you will blame yourself for that loss when in reality if you respect your system’s parameters you should not take the blame for it. If you blame yourself then on the next opportunity you will be afraid of the outcome. As a result, you'll begin collecting information in support of or against the trade. If your fear of missing out (FOMO) outweighs your fear of losing, you will collect facts for the trade. If your fear of losing (FOL) outweighs your fear of missing out, you will collect knowledge against the trade. You won't be in the best frame of mind to achieve consistent outcomes in this event.
4. Every trade is special and unique.
Even if our minds are perceiving some trades as being the same as others that we have in our memory, every moment in the market is unique. If each moment is unique, there's no way to predict for sure what will happen next based on your logical experience.
Trade with care.
If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
🎓 EDU 5 of 20: FUNDAMENTALS ARE THE HOLY GRAIL OF TRADINGHello traders! In the previous Educational Post (4 of 20) we learned what FIST (Fundamentals, Intermarket, Sentiment, Technicals) is about and why you need to use this trading framework in your trading. I strongly believe that incorporating a range of analytical disciplines returns better trading results than focusing only on one tool. This is how big players play the market, and this is how you should trade too - if you want to become a consistently profitable trader.
Most retail traders put too much emphasis on technical analysis. The majority of traders even trade solely with technical tools. In an earlier post, we have covered why you shouldn't trade only on technicals , so this might be a good time to revisit that lesson and read it if you haven't already.
Most retail traders will wait for a signal like a pullback, MA crossover, overbought/oversold RSI conditions, MACD, and follow candlestick patterns and chart patterns to enter into a trade. Guess what? That's an easy way to blow your trading account! If you look at your broker's homepage, you'll see a sentence stating how many retail traders lose money. I have yet to find a retail broker where less than 20-30% of traders are profitable. The rest, 70-80% of clients, lose money on a consistent basis. I bet that, of those who lose money, the majority use technical strategies and/or have poor risk management skills.
Institutional traders don't open a trade based on MA crossovers or extreme RSI levels. They follow a range of fundamental signals, analyze correlations between different asset classes, and follow the general market sentiment. Technical analysis accounts for 5% of their work. Technical levels are only used to determine entry and exit points - ONLY after they already know in which direction they want to trade.
Fundamental Analysis
Unlike technical analysis which is based on the premise that history repeats itself, markets like to trend, and all available news is instantly discounted in the price, the fundamental analysis aims to explore the underlying factors of why a market is going up or down. Technical analysis is all about charts. Technicians are not interested in the reasons behind price movements, which often creates an environment where technicals alone produce fake signals. I bet many of you have seen that: a failed triangle breakout, a failed trendline breakout, or the RSI remaining in oversold conditions as the price continues to trade lower.
Fundamental analysis can be grouped into two groups: macro fundamentals, and micro fundamentals.
In trading, macro fundamentals refer to the bigger picture fundamentals: interest rates, economic growth, inflation rates, and labor market conditions.
Micro fundamentals are more subtle, but can also have a large influence on the price. Those are comments by central bankers, news, market indicators (PMIs, CPIs...), political developments in a country, etc.
Central Bank Meetings
My students often ask me whether they should follow central bank meetings and press conferences. My answer: If you want to make money trading, then yes! Nothing has such a large impact on prices as central bank meetings and interest rate decisions. And if you do your homework, you can profit from those meetings most of the time. Follow press conferences that are scheduled shortly after the meeting and listen to the Q&A session, and read the entire meeting report once it's out. You'll find it astonishing how much you can learn from those reports - and how easy it can be to make money in the markets.
There are eight major central banks in FX: US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Create a bookmark for each of those central bank websites, and read their reports and articles at least once a week. I like to do it on weekends.
You can even have very profitable trades after the Central Bank meeting is over and the market has already reacted to the news. Commercial banks and other sell-side institutions will often drain liquidity in the markets to purchase a currency at discount after a major news report or interest rate decision. If you know how to identify this liquidity drain, you'll be able to catch amazing trades in the future.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for Part 6: What Market Indicators do I Need to Follow?
GOLD SPOT - USD Hello traders,
Today i'm highlighting a possible entry on the XAUUSD. On my previous video i showed how we was going to break above the neckline of the double bottom, now we wait for the return move.
I hope you guys and gals enjoy the content and if you have any questions please comment below.
Trade Safe.
The power of the Order Block & Bitcoins Inevitable run up The Power of the Order Block.
Please refer to chart for reference.
What is a order block?
A order block will show a big wick up and down, and close as square box.
What does this represent?
These little square boxes represent there was a battle happening in the price action for support and or resistance.
Why is the order block so powerful?
As you can see on the chart I have Highlighted where I have found each order block on the Daily Time frame While providing arrows for when the flip from resistance to support was complete.
As you can see on the chart after bit had a crazy run up it need time to cool off, and as it is in such a strong up trend you should simply be looking to buy the dips at the correct levels.
By understanding what these candle sticks mean you can get a great understanding of where the market is heading.
Once coming down to retest these new order block levels, you can see sometimes an overextension occurs through the support level whilst always maintaining a daily close above.
You can use these order blocks to find great entries in a bull market.
SUNPHARMA long term speculationWith a multi-year breakout and current pharma sector conditions, I believe it's going to outperform the sector.
Disclaimer: for education purposes only not recommended for trade.
can use both weekly and daily timeframe for getting the big picture.
Check the notes points for further clarity
#sunpharma
Educational Trend Analysis@mmsoccer $jets and $vde have a high correlation, i would just pick one for a position
mmsoccer
but with flights picking up
wouldn't they go up?
and what about the triangle with a more bullish entry?
dilille010
@mmsoccer youre talking about fundamentals, i rarely use fundamentals to trade, im in $blok to have exposure to crypto, thats about as close to fundamental trading as i get
mmsoccer
okay
dilille010
$jets looks like its rollingover for a support check at 25.5
mmsoccer
jets is all airlines though, and vde is an energy etf?
dilille010
@mmsoccer wrote:
jets is all airlines though, and vde is an energy etf?
check a correlation calculator
hold on ill look im not doing anything
mmsoccer
correlation could be random?
dilille010
@mmsoccer its got a .77 correlation, for my trading diversification, i dont hold two postions with higher than .5 correlation on a rolling 5 year basis
mmsoccer
they do look correlated
but they are at a strong support
definitely different though
dilille010
if nopthign changes, trend says this will test 25.82 by April 23 @mmsoccer
its riding the high side of it, if you turn the trend horizontal in your head, is this a bullish buy right now?
no, its on the high side of its downtrend
thats trend trading
mmsoccer
your chart makes sense
dilille010
it could go bullisj quickly because it is riding the downtrend, but what if it keeps going down and you trade against thew trend
if you trade it now, its better to go with trend
then be ready to go bull when it makes a new uptrend
mmsoccer
holy caca
the 1h looks so different
one sec
dilille010
each trader chooses their timeframe, based on their risk appetite and trading profile
mmsoccer
i love the 1h as you can tell lol
dilille010
the 1 hour is mixed for me. its breaking both up and down trends and its in a downward consolidation, downward consolidations are usuaally bearish @mmsoccer
mmsoccer
dilille010
i dont use candles for trend trading anymore
mmsoccer
im looking more short term for the 1h, triangles imo can go either way
dilille010
candles are emotional for me and tell me nothign about trend, i rely on closing prices
mmsoccer
but going doesn't require margin or anything so that seem less risk
in forex i trade short and long, because currency values fluctuate normally
dilille010
@mmsoccer you are arguing a bull position for a stock in a bearish trend on 1 day and 1 hour, in a downward consolidation, in a stock that is making lower lows and lower highs, you see your argument
technical analysis says this is going lower
mmsoccer
on the 1h i see it as neutral
and the daily
dilille010
then make your bull position, just have stop losses built in or be ready to cost average down
mmsoccer
with confirmation it could go either way
dilille010
im giving you pearls and you are just saying, "but yeah, no, i think im right"
mmsoccer
ya thank you!
im gona go have confirmation code for the bullish entry
and code my takeprofit and stop loss
with my coding platform i cant short stocks
Most common mistakes in tradingHello my friends today i want to talk with you about most common mistakes in trading from my experience (any market but specially in crypto)
And after reading this i hope you will avoid them
1- Not Patient Enough :
I think this is one of top major reasons for failure in cryptomarket
Most newbies in this Field are thinking they will be rich in few days thats completely wrong ...Any old trader here will tell you how the patience will paid off
2- More Than You Can Afford To Lose :
only risk what you can afford to lose ...
more than that will lead to alot of mistakes and you may close your position after any small drop before reaching stoploss point and thats wrong my friends
3- Not Using Stoploss :
Stoploss is important but i recommend manual stoploss by candles closing not automatic one to avoid manipulation in market.. if you dont know difference between manual and automatic read my previous idea about it
4- Over Trading :
Alot of trades every day wont make more money ...instead, it will make you more stressful and staring at charts all day resulting in more mistakes
👉Fewer in numbers and higher in quality trades per week or even month are enough
sometimes best thing you can do is not trading at all when market is uncertain
5- Emotional Trading :
Both fear and greed play big role in the market movement
When you see most of people are greedy you should start taking profits partially ..and also try to avoid selling during panic sells
6- Revenge Trading :
Like using all wallet to buy one coin (all in) or doing high leverage postion to recover losses fast usually end in liqudation or big lose and leaving market completely
This market need you to be flexible
7- Ignoring Your First Plan
alot of very good plans and managements from start but you continusoly change it by listening to other random people opinions
trust in your self and trust in chart
no problem from taking advices from more experience people but you should trust in yourself first by have your own view and own plan
How many mistakes you find yourself doing it ...choose the number from above and tell us in comments
SHIBAWETH - on the hourly *NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: DYOR - This idea IMO for personal use only*
==========================
Just a thought. Extremely Risky. Highly volatile.
But I likey likey.
Not much historical data for charting this, but this one is a TRADE opp for me for now.
Might be a HOLD pending on how she behaves over the next few months... Just a thought.
As always, watch for volume . Do your own research. Always be watching BTC.
Good chat.🤖