Is the BTC correction over ???Hello dear friends
Is the BTC correction over ???
If I want to answer this question honestly, I have to say no yet
In addition to the technical reasons presented in the chart, these cases also had an impact on my response
1.An examination of the data within the network shows that the big wallets not only did not take action against the main crawler in the last few days, but were also somewhat of a seller.
2.If we look at the current wave of downtrend, we find that the rise in prices in the last few days is most likely a correction of wave 4 of the current downtrend, so I expect wave 5 to start in a downward direction soon.
3.According to the correction wave rules, the recent price increase is in the form of a three-wave ABC, which reinforces the high probability.
4.The PRZ range marked by the intersection of the 200-day moving average + Fibo 0.618 + the valid dynamic trend line creates a high-pressure zone that can withstand severe downward price volatility.
5.The negative latent divergence shown in the chart can be very strong due to its location in the sales saturation zone.
******Appropriate entry points for supports and resistances according to the chart*******
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Educationalposts
Demystifying a Fakeout ; Fake Breakout ; Wyckoff Theory / EURCADIn this Analysis I break-down what everyone knows and hates most. The Fakeout.
The fakeout is simple. I hope this conveyed in the Chart.
1. We are in a Range
2. We closed outside the Range, we get candle closure confirmation. The 3 C's.
3. Shortly after we print candles back inside the range, closing strongly
4. At this stage you can wait for a retest of the bottom of the range (like me)
or you can just place an entry right then .. because the Fakeout structure has initiated at this point
Thoughts on where we are going form here anyone?
I'm Looking to 148 for swing trading.
We must stay above 146 now since we closed above this zone
on Friday's NFP day.
The 12 Tasks Of Trading12 tasks of trading which include:
1. Self-analysis to determine if you are in a state of mind to trade
Prior to starting your trading day, it is very important to make sure you are in the correct state of mind to trade. You need to analyse yourself and make sure you are at the best state of mind to avoid mistakes in the markets. You cannot finish fighting with a friend, spouse, or colleague and expect to make great analytical decisions. Therefore, the first and most important step, is always making sure your mind is clear and at its best.
2. Mental rehearsal to avoid mistakes
The second step includes you rehearsing your set of rules and making sure you are going to strictly stick by them. This will allow you to avoid many mistakes in the markets and in your day.
3. Daily focus to lead you towards your goal
It is very important to have goals, but specifically daily goals. You need to determine what your goals are for the day including the pairs you are looking at, the times you will be trading, your risk management, and what you aim at gaining from the markets that day. Once goals are met, it is important to step back and wait until the next day to trade.
4. Developing your own style of a low risk idea.
For students of Opes Trading Group, low risk ideas and strategies are all taught to them during the course. It is important for every trader to develop their own ideas and strategies that are low risk in order to always protect their capital. Capital preservation is the most important rule of forex trading.
5. Stalking the charts starting from high to low time frames
Looking at the charts from the higher to the lower time frames allows you to be able to see the bigger picture before looking right in. if you started looking from the lower time frames, you could have a wrong picture painted for you as to where the price could be heading. You cannot see the bigger picture if you are standing too close to something, it is the same concept on the charts.
6. Action requiring commitment and not thought
Once a trade and an idea has been analized, it is important not to second guess yourself and take the trade. Do not second guess yourself if you believe in yourself and your trades.
7. Monitoring the trade to keep the risk low
Always keep your eyes on your trades. Now that doesn’t necessarily mean you need to be glued to your charts, but check them every once in a while, and at important candle closure to make sure they are still playing out the way you expect them to.
8. Aborting is the trade is not going well
If a trade does not go as planned (and the reality is some won’t), it is important to cut your losses if the trade is clearly not going to recover. There is no reason to hold on to a losing trade if there is no reason for it to recover.
9. Taking profits when the reason for the trade has ended
A take profit is placed for a reason, however sometimes the reasons end before the take profit has been reached, meaning it is very important to close the trade even if it means closing it early. Never become attached to a trade that you chase the take profit only to find yourself back at 0 or even in negative.
10. A daily review to monitor and prevent future mistakes
At the end of every day, all the trades taken should be reviewed. This will allow you to see what you are doing right, and what you are doing wrong. This will give you a good indication for what is needed for future trades.
11. Being grateful for what went well
Something so many people pay no attention to and ignore is gratefulness. Any positive day in the markets, is a great day! Be grateful for all that goes right, no matter how small the profits might be, because 90% of traders lost that day.
12. A periodic review to make sure everything is still working well
Every quarter it is recommended that you review your whole trading system. As the markets change, we need to be able to change and adapt with them, therefore a periodic review will allow you to know if things that are working still are or aren’t.
An introduction to the MACD indicatorHere is my quick and dirty introduction/explanation of what the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator………… indicates.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a trend following momentum indicator that follows the intimate relationship between a 12-Period EMA and a 26-Period EMA on a price chart in whatever timeframe you are in.
The MACD indicator is made up of 6 parts, the MACD Line, the Signal Line, the Histogram, the 0.00 Base Line, the Positive Zone and the Negative Zone.
As default, the MACD Line is calculated by subtracting the value of a 26-Period EMA from the value of a 12-Period EMA on your chart to give you your MACD Line value. The MACD indicator will give a MACD Line value in whatever timeframe you are in.
The Signal Line is a 9-Period EMA of the MACD Line and is used with the MACD Line to generate/trigger Buy and Sell Signals. If the MACD Line crosses ABOVE the Signal Line, that is considered a Buy Signal. If the MACD Line crosses BELOW the Signal Line, that is considered a Sell Signal. Note that Buy and Sell Signals can be generated in both the Positive and Negative Zones
The Histogram is a graphical representation of the distance between the MACD Line and the Signal Line (9-Period EMA).
Green Histograms will appear above the 0.00 Base Line when the MACD Line crosses ABOVE the Signal Line. The Green Histograms will Increase in size the further the MACD Line moves upwards & away from its Signal Line. The Green Histogram will also lighten in colour if the MACD Line fails to move higher to create a higher Green Histogram Bar.
Red Histograms will appear below the 0.00 Base Line when the MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line. The Red Histograms will increase in size the further the MACD Line moves downwards & away from its Signal Line. The Red Histogram will also lighten in colour if the MACD Line fails to move lower to create a lower Red Histogram Bar.
The Positive Zone is the area ABOVE the 0.00 Base Line. If the MACD Line crosses above the 0.00 Base Line, this means that a 12-Period EMA is ABOVE a 26-Period EMA on your price chart in whatever timeframe you are in. So to reiterate, the MACD Line will be ABOVE the 0.00 Base Line when a 12-Period EMA is ABOVE a 26-Period EMA on your price chart.
The Negative Zone is the area BELOW the 0.00 Base Line. If the MACD Line crosses below the 0.00 Base Line, this means that a 12-Period EMA is BELOW a 26-Period EMA on your price chart in whatever timeframe you are in. So to reiterate, the MACD Line will be BELOW the 0.00 Base Line when a 12-Period EMA is BELOW a 26-Period EMA on your price chart.
Note that the MACD indicator has no upper limit in the Positive Zone and no lower limit in the Negative Zone.
The MACD indicator can also be used to show Divergence between the Price and the MACD Line. In a Bullish scenario, if the Price is making Lower Lows and the MACD Line is making Higher Lows then this is potentially Bullish.
For a Bearish scenario, if the Price is making Higher Highs and the MACD Line is making Lower Highs then this is potentially Bearish.
The MACD indicator can also be used to show Hidden Divergence between the Price and the Histogram. In a Bullish scenario, if the Price is making Higher Lows but the Histogram is making Lower Lows then this is potentially Bullish. For a Bearish scenario, if the Price is making Lower Highs but the Histogram is making Higher Highs then this is potentially Bearish.
The MACD can sometimes produce false positive as can be seen here where we have Bullish Divergence with the Price Converging with the MACD Line but no real breakout happened.
Note that the MACD Line and Signal Line will be in line with the current Candle Wick in whatever timeframe you are in.
The MACD indicator is a lagging indicator but it also has the power to be predictive especially with potential upcoming Buy and Sell signals, divergence and when used with other indicators like Volume, the Ichimoku Cloud, Bollinger Bands, MAs or EMAs, RSI, ADX DI to name but a few as these can help complement the MACD signals to help get a much clearer picture as to what is going on and what may happen on your chart in whatever timeframe you are in, because there is a lot of BS, FUD, FOMO and utter crap out there so a little clarity is always helpful ;-)
For me the MACD is a very useful indicator with my trading, so I hope you have found this quick and dirty MACD educational post helpful. Happy trading.
Notes:
MACD Line = 26-Period EMA Value - 12-Period EMA Value = MACD Line Value
Signal Line = 9-Period EMA of the MACD Line. Used with the MACD Line to trigger Buy and Sell Signals
Histogram = Distance between the MACD Line and the Signal Line
0.00 Base Line = Crossover point to the Positive Zone and/or Negative Zone
Positive Zone = a 12-Period EMA is ABOVE a 26-Period EMA on your price chart
Negative Zone = a 12-Period EMA is BELOW a 26-Period EMA on your price chart
EMA = Exponential Moving Average.
How To Succeed In Your TradingFocus on one single trading strategy
One thing that many people try and do is switch between strategies constantly. This is setting you up for failure, and if the concept of probabilities is truly understood, you will comprehend the reasons why a single strategy will work.
Any strategy is not going to have a 100% win rate, so first you should attempt at getting 50% of your trades right. After that mastering a 2:1 Reward to risk ratio is what will make you profitable. Trying to juggle many strategies will have you working tirelessly, but not moving forward in any particular one.
Less trading, more education
Many people have the conception that spending countless hours in front of the screen looking for potential set ups is how it should be, however that is completely wrong in my eyes. I spend minimal time now looking at charts and set ups, I highlight key levels I want to look at, along with alerts, and simply wait for the market to head there. Time spent looking at charts should be simply for education and mastering your strategy through back testing or simply understanding previous data.
Approach the market from a neutral position
Anyone that knows me knows how big I am on trading psychology and how I believe it is the most important aspect of trading.
Emotions in trading can be one of your greatest enemies as it can lead you to failure even after your success. There are scenarios where you can take trades and be in positive which will lead you to feel over confident, happy, and those will ultimately will lead to irrational decisions if you let them. Those emotions will make you believe you are better than the markets, or that you can outsmart them, ultimately leading your successful trade to turn into a failure. The same can happen when you feel the opposite and lack confidence to enter another trade due to a loss, or think have feelings of doubt.
This is why the market needs to be approached by a completely neutral position. Once you understand that for every person on one side of a trade, there is someone on the opposite side, you will begin to understand that the market itself is just a whole bunch of neutral information moving in nobody’s favour.
Write your goals
Affirmations are great and something that has helped me in every aspect of my life and not just trading. It is very important to write down your goals in order to manifest them into reality. All ideas first begin in the mind, and then come into the physical. Your goals need to be solidified, definite, and written down in order for your mind and yourself to know exactly what you are going after.
Every single day, you need to read your goals aloud, envision them in your mind with every bit of detail possible in order to bring them into the physical. In order to achieve a goal you need to arrive at the destination first in your mind.
Relax
There is no need to rush a single thing in your trading journey, and believe me take it from my experience, every time I tried to, I failed. People attend university for years before going out into a career which then takes many years before mastering it, yet people want to master trading in a year.
Patience is required in all aspects of trading, whether it’s on the charts themselves, or with your strategy, or with your learning curve. It all requires patience. If you are going after trading as a serious life career which you aim to remain in, then relaxing and taking your time is the first step. Nothing great comes from rushing it, especially the markets.
Know how to handle your trades
Based on your strategy and the concept of probability there are a number of things needed in order to appropriately handle your trades.
Firstly, don’t touch your stop loss. I cant say this enough, but stop losses are determined as the final barrier before the trade is invalid, and they are determine before entering the trade. If you find yourself moving your stop, ask yourself why. You will find out mostly its out of fear of losing your money, which is one of the 4 fears of trading. Accept your loss and let the trade stop out, you had it there for a reason.
Also, don’t leave trades behind out of fear. If you have a strategy that you have confidently developed, you should understand that the overall should be a greater number of winners than losers, and you should not leave trades behind out of fear, because they can be the ones that perform the best and make up for the losers.
Another thing to have in place is an appropriate strategy for exiting your trades. Many people have trades that are in profit, however due to the lack of knowledge on how to exit their trades, they still end up not profitable. You need to have a system on how to exit your trades appropriately and at what levels. Always remember, the profit running on a trade is not yours until its closed.
Risk management
Yes, I know you have heard it and read it a thousand times already, but you have no idea how important risk management is until the day you master it and recognise it was the single greatest thing holding you back from success.
People can have amazing strategies, the best reward to risk ratios, but with the inappropriate risk management trust me it means absolutely nothing. I have seen people overleverage on a trade simply because it “looked too good” compared to other trades, only for it to be the worst of the bunch.
I have seen people lose tremendous amounts of money and one thing I can promise you is not a single one of these people lost 100 trades in a row at 1% a trade. Every single one of them lost their entire accounts due to ONE trade that they married.
Risk management should be one of your main areas of focus, because believe me if you have mastered it, even with an average strategy you are doing much better than someone with an exceptional strategy with no adequate risk management.
Keep track of your performance
The only way to improve in any aspect of life is to first recognise what needs change and then work on it. It is very important to actually understand your positives and negatives and have them all tracked. A journal is one of the first steps in order to look in the mirror. Being completely honest is the only way a journal will work, and lying is only lying to yourself. If you are after serious improvement you need to appropriately identify all your flaws in order to better them.
You should never feel down or behind, remember trading the markets is one of the biggest psychological challenges one can face, and that is exactly why not everyone is suited for them. Instead see it as a challenge to better yourself and achieve the perfection and discipline you have always desired on and off the charts. Trading the markets will teach you lessons that you will carry with you throughout your entire life and not just on the trading floor.
💥BEAR SEASON IS OVER - HERE’S WHY🤔Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳
Not a financial advice🙅🏼♂️
Just as I said in my first post on 13th December 2021, I made it a fact that a drop to $35,000 is inevitable. You can check the idea here 👇👇
…where I explained the similarities of this setup to a previous move earlier in 2021.
Then later on, I made an update of the forecast here👇👇
…where it eventually hit the target here👇👇 at $34,4000/$35,000
With the price rejection at the lower trendline with a bullish pin bar candle on a daily timeframe, which make it the 3rd support zone on the chart, I expect it to be close of bear season.
If price continue with the new bullish move and fails to break the trendline, I expect this last forecast to play out👇👇
What do you think?
Share your opinion in the comment section✍️
Follow me to receive more updates on BTCUSD ( BITCOIN ) 🤗
Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC has made bearish candles in last few days and you can see image and our previous post. BTC is following the blocks we have made.
There are good chances that BTC will further go down because there is a big liquidation setup at 27k to 28k range.
If market gets good volume then it can reverse back from here but it revert again to take the remaining order blocks.
We are not market makers
Soon market will be good once again 🙂 don't worry guys.
💥PSG TOKEN - WHY YOU SHOULD HOLD😋Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳
Not a financial advice🙅🏼♂️
As explained on the chart, psg fan token do through the accumulation phase before a pump and this consolidation takes time (probably a month or two).
After the fall to the lower trendline, the first accumulation happened within December 2020 & March 2021…
Followed by the second accumulation that happened within May 2022 and July 2021 which took price to a new ATH at $61
Where I predicted a fall back to the current zone.
Price is at the current accumulation phase that started in November 2021 and it’s still ongoing.
An upward breakout from this consolidation/accumulation phase is expected to take price to a new ATH around $70.
What do you think?
Share your opinion in the comment section✍️
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Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
💥LITECOIN CUP & HANDLE - TO HIT $400, $500, $600 & $700Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳
Not a financial advice🙅🏼♂️
With this cup and handle pattern on Litecoin, I expect a steady growth to the respective prices ahead.
Litecoin formed a very big cup pattern, followed by the handle in a triangular pattern.
An upward breakout from this triangle will take price upward to the moon. A steady growth.
What do you think?
Share your opinion in the comment section✍️
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Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Simple Explanation of Stop Loss Hunting Stop Loss Hunting, a manipulative tool, that is used by Market Makers and Whales to manipulate market every day and to take away money from Retailers.
This is a basic yet advance topic to discuss. For simplicity sake, Let's break down this discussion in five parts :-
1) What is Stop Loss Hunting ?
2) How does it work ?
3) Why does it work ?
4) Why they do it ?
5) How to avoid It ?
---------------- 1) What is Stop Loss Hunting ? ----------------
Stop Loss Hunting is a process in which "A KEY LEVEL" is broken on either side in order to trap Retailers and to take Stop losses of either bears or bulls and trap them in that Trade.
----------------- 2) How does it work ? -------------------------
It works only when we have a level that is SO OBVIOUS to everyone that majority of RETAILERS put there Stop Loss underneath that level.
Stop Loss Orders are clearly observable in ORDER Book and ESPECIALLY to Market makers.
However, Key Levels in Range Trading become so obvious to Market makers or some Support levels that Whales/ Institutions or Market Makers can clearly observe where most Stop Losses of Majority of Retailers will be.
Thus they can overwhelm that range or level with Demand or Supply to take out Bears or Bulls Respectively.
----------------- 3) Why does it work ? -------------------------
We all are HUMANS and are bounded by our Emotions. We are EMOTIONAL BEINGS at the end of the day and we are not machines.
Inherently, We share an emotional domain and there are two key emotions in that domain :- Fear, Greed.
These emotions are involved and determine out actions most of the times in any Financial Market.
Therefore, These emotions are used as trigger points for Buying and selling and thus, Market Makers manipulate the Market by Controlling the masses by using these as Trigger points.
In Bear Trap , thus, when an obvious support level is broken then Retailers sell and Whales/Institutions buy and Bears are trapped. Then market makers Push the price up and that is how BEAR TRAP Works.
On the other side, In Bull Trap when Resistance level is broken then Break out traders buy at Breakout and then Bears Stop Loss is mostly taken out then Many Bulls are trapped. Therefore, Price takes a dump on failure of a breakout.
----------------- 4) Why they do it ? -------------------------
Answer is pretty simple for this :- To make more Money and Get better ORDER FILLING PRICE for their BIG ORDER Trade.
Whales/ Instituions do get have a BIG ORDER SIZE and Especially when they have INSIDER News or Information before it becomes available to public.
They always seek to get their BIG ORDER SIZE FILLING in Blocks at better Price.
For that reason, they do overwhelm a Support level with Supply to take out Retailers out of that trade and fill their BIG ORDER SIZE in Blocks.
Also, sometimes, when Market Makers see good Opportunity to take out Retailers out of trade they do same as well by Breaking Key Level on Either side.
---------------- 5) How to avoid It ? ----------------------
This can be done in TWO WAYS. By having Either your Stop Loss Wide Enough OR Look out for a key Level is so obvious to everyone and thus Expect Stop Loss Hunting at that level.
What i do sometimes is that when a key Level is broken and it is coming back to support then you can trade from that level where AN OBVIOUS KEY LEVEL is broken and most Retailers are taken out of the trade.
Let us use an example for this :-
You can clearly see how an OBVIOUS level of 30K majority was watching and it was taken out and many Retailers would def had been Liquidated or their SL must had been taken out.
I really hope that my Stop LOSS Hunting Explanation would be good enough and if i made any mistake please do lemme know anout it.
Diagram in the chart is an example only and is not meant to taken for any financial advice.
How to spot and use MACD DivergencesOscillators
Oscillators are any bits of information or data moving back and forth between two points. It is usually used as a signal for a buy or a sell on either side of the range it is moving in. The Relative Strength index which you might hear of is an example of an oscillator, however I will not be going into detail about it as we do not personally do not use it for my trading. When there is a change in momentum, this often signals weakness in a trend. The indicators are designed to signal a possible trend reversal.
The only oscillator we use in our trading is the MACD. Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Feel free to look into other indicators, however, we believe that the MACD has been our favourite to use.
DIVERGENCE
Divergence is simply when we will be looking at the difference in price action against an indicator such as MACD, RSI, Stochastic.
The simplest way to put it, when the price is making higher highs the indicator should also be making higher highs, and lower lows then vice versa. If the price is making higher highs but the indicator is not, then the two are diverting from each other and we have divergence. This is a great sign for a weakening trend and a potential shift in momentum.
The two types include regular and hidden.
Regular divergence
When the price is making lower lows (LL), and the oscillator is making higher lows (HL), then we have what we call regular bullish divergence which usually appears at the end of a downtrend.
If the price makes a higher high (HH) but the oscillator makes a lower high (LH), then we have regular bearish divergence. This usually occurs at the end of an uptrend.
Hidden Divergence
Divergence does not necessarily have to show when the trend will reverse, it can show trend continuation, and since we try to avoid trading against the trend this can be of great help.
When the price makes a higher high, but the oscillator makes a lower low, we have what we call hidden bullish divergence.
When the price goes to make a lower high but the oscillator makes a higher high, this is what we call hidden bearish divergence.
Always remember that in conjunction with these signals, we need other signs in order for us to enter the trade. We cannot solely base our analysis on oscillator divergence, otherwise we can find ourselves on the wrong side of the trade.
Wait for the crossovers of the indicators to be sure, this can happen after the price has begun to move, however it can be an assurance that the divergence observed is correct.
Always remember if the market is moving sideways, there are no clear indications of divergence so do not force it. Always connect the latest in the price action, meaning if the price is bullish and is retracing, you are looking at higher highs. Focus on the highs and lows of the indicators and ignore any small minor movements in between. Wherever lines are drawn on the price, they have to line up with the oscillator and that is where the line will also have to be drawn, everything has to line up.
What is the pricing in factor?Pricing In
Human behaviour, specifically greed and impatience are some of the main reasons the markets move the way they do. The term pricing in is the definition and illustration of human impatience. Due to the fear of missing out, impatience, and greed, humans natural instinct after hearing a rumour without any solid information to back it is the buy into it.
Brexit has been causing a lot of this recently with rumours of a possible Brexit solution which causes investors to “price in” based on the rumours.
Interest rate cuts are another example where they begin to get priced in based on the rumours.
Buy the rumour, sell the news. A sentence commonly seen in the trading world. Let's imagine we have interest rate data expected to be released at 2%. The current rate is 3%. This data is seen as negative as the interest rate is dropping so many people can begin to factor that information in days prior to the release of the news. This is demonstrated by a drop in the price of the currency much earlier than the actual release. Once the data is released, it comes out at 2%, and you may notice the price does not move much. This is due to the fact that the price has dropped and been factored in prior. However, let's imagine the data released at 1.5% which is worse than expected, you can expect the value to decrease majorly. On the other hand if the data was released at 2.5%, even though the interest rate still fell from 3 to 2.5%, it is still expected to see an increase in value of the currency due to the data being greater than the expected result. In other words, when data release is unexpected, you should expect great volatility in the markets.
In the markets, it is important to always watch for the unexpected at all times. Data may be predicted to be very positive or very negative and once released it can be the total opposite. Don't get caught up in trading news as it is not suggested, however learn how to use the fundamentals to your advantage and imply them into your technical analysis.
Basics of Trading PsychologyPsychology is perhaps the single most important aspect of trading. Without the proper psychology, you are almost guaranteed to fail.
First things first, you have to understand that trading is just as much of a profession as any other, and just like top performing athletes, trading reflects your performance, you are responsible for your results.
In life your beliefs shape your reality, and you have to believe without a doubt that you could become a trader. Only once you completely trust yourself, you will be able to go ahead and become a trader. Every aspect of trading is psychological including everything we have spoken about pretty much. And since you trade your beliefs, that makes the biggest impact on the results you will receive. People make decisions based on fear or greed, it is that simple. And since the market is designed to take advantage of individuals psychological weakness, if you do not have control over yours then you will be a part of the 90% who lost that day.
Since all trading is psychological, it is most important to always be working on yourself as a person, because that will greatly impact your mindset and attitude while trading. You cannot finish fighting with a friend, partner, or spouse, and sit on your computer expecting to make great analytical decisions while there is anger and indecisions going on in your head. Trading has to be treated just as much of a business as any other.
A lot of people think that trading mistakes and trading losses are the same thing. However, a trading loss is simply a trade that hit your stop loss and did not go your way. Until the day you learn to accept that losses are just as much a part of trading as winners, you will not become successful. A trading mistake on the other hand is you simply not following your own rules. You have to understand the importance of being disciplined and how it is possibly the single most important aspect of lasting in the markets. Never break your own rules just to be right, because as said earlier, you need to learn that losses are completely normal and expected.
By following your rules, you will focus less on being right and have less emotional attachment to trades. If emotions are attached to every single trade then what can happen is that you could have a great week and make a certain amount of money that week. Now by attaching an emotion to that trade, you are programming your mind to believe that the following week even if half that amount was made, it is not good enough as you do not have the same intensity of positive emotions. In trading you have to be emotionless towards both wins and losses and strictly follow your rules.
According to Dr Van K. Tharp, there are 12 tasks of trading which include:
1. Self-analysis to determine if you are in a state of mind to trade
2. Mental rehearsal to avoid mistakes
3. Daily focus to lead you towards your goal
4. Developing your own style of a low risk idea
5. Stalking the charts starting from high to low time frames
6. Action requiring commitment and not thought
7. Monitoring the trade to keep the risk low
8. Aborting if the trade is not going well
9. Taking profits when the reason for the trade has ended
10. A daily review to monitor and prevent future mistakes
11. Being grateful for what went well
12. A periodic review to make sure everything is still working well
One of the biggest parts of a good trading psychology is believing in yourself. This can sound very straight forward until you deposit real money and place a trade. You will see parts of yourself being tested that you didn't know existed. You might find yourself checking the trade every few minutes or even seconds, you might look at your drawdown and doubt everything that you have done, you might lose a trade and think that you will never analyse another right. Let me give you some common examples, you analyse a trade and all the confluence is there, you then monitor your trade and after several hours you find yourself in drawdown leading you to close the trade, hours later you see that the price went to exactly where you had your take profit. Another might be after losing a trade you see a great opportunity, but your previous loss makes you doubt everything about the trade, only to see it reaching where you had in mind also. Of all the things learnt, if your psychology is not your main focus of work, you will not be able to succeed as a trader, not because you do not have the right knowledge and analysis to trade, but because you are your own enemy.
Over trading is another reason why many people do not last long in the markets. Over trading is extremely negative as placing too many trades and adding on to your losses, you are not managing your risk correctly and only exposing your account and capital to more risk. The psychology going from demo to a real account is great also and individuals need to be careful as emotions will come into play.
If there is one thing that cannot be stressed enough, it is that the aim of trading is to gain pips and not money. Chasing money, especially fast money, is gambling and you will never have control as long as you remain with that attitude.
How to use EMA's as a beginnerIf you are getting started in trading, identifying a trend may not be the easiest thing to do. So here we can see a little example of how using EMA's such as the 20 and the 50 can help.
By placing your EMA's on the chart, you can use them on any TF, however just like every other indicator, the higher the TF the more value it holds.
EMA's can help us identify trends and we can spot what is known as dynamic support and resistance, where just like traditional support and resistance, the moving averages can now act as areas where the price can bounce or reject from as its trending. The further our EMAS move apart, the stronger the momentum is getting for that trend.
When the EMAS are moving very closely together it can help us to identify a ranging or sideways market that is not trending. A crossover can help us to identify the beginning of a trend that is about to start.
Always remember, these indicators should be used as confluences, and not to be relied on solely.
Supply and Demand zones and how to use themAs we can see above i have demonstrated how supply and demand zones can be used to help you analyse a chart.
Firstly we need to identify an absolute high and and absolute low on the TF we are using. The higher the TF the more valid the zones become. When the absolute highs and lows are identified, they are what we know as the major supply and demand and we will expect the greatest reactions to happen around them.
As the chart also shows, price will create sets of highs and lows in between the majors and they are what will become the MINOR supplies and demands. These zones can be looked at as reaction points, however once the price breaks through them they become invalid.
This is just a very brief way of looking at zones in order to help you analyse a chart.
DREAMS QUEST Wedge Breakout 1043% potential (Mobile Version)Hello traders,
DISSECTING A FALLING WEDGE TRADE
THE STRUCTURE
Todays technical analysis is on DREAMS QUEST. This coin seems to be consolidating in a falling wedge pattern which I have seen many times play out very well for the Kucoin bangers that get listed. What you want to look for on a falling wedge pattern is 3 touches on both the bottom support trend and 3 touches on the top resistance trend. This will be the formation of the bullish consolidation falling wedge pattern as saw in the chart.
The key indicators of a bullish falling wedge parttern are a wide mouth at the beginning of the pattern and bullish price heading up to the top of the pattern. Then an ABC corrective wave during a bearish down trend that consolidates tightly at the end of the pattern. A lot of times you will be able to use a fib tool from the bottom of the recent to the top of the beginning of the wedge and see that the bottom of the wedge generally bounces off of the 50% Fibonacci level indicating the price action may have exhausted the bearish market participants.
THE STOP LOSS
There is nothing more important in trading than risk management and protecting your capital. No matter how good of a pattern you see or how promising a trade set up is, the market could always have some bearish news that completely destroys your position. Thus, if you’re going to trade, USE A STOP LOSS!! Ok, for this particular pattern, placing your stop loss is pretty simple, I have a general rule of thumb to place my stop loss 3% below the last swing low of the falling wedge prior to the breakout. Which this will be placed after your entry which we will go over next but, I have listed it in this tutorial first as it is more important than your entry! Your initial stop loss is at .06295¢
THE ENTRY
Your entry will be upon the breakout of the top of the wedge located in area #1 or upon retest of the breakout areas in box #2 shown on the chart. Upon breakout of the top of the falling wedge pattern, in the box labeled #1 this being your initial breakout area, you’re going to want to see a CLEAR bullish candle on the daily come above the trend line and be in the #1 buy box before entry to confirm that breakout. The entry for this trade is between .08718¢ and .09880¢
KEY NOTE and always a rule of thumb here is patience, your entry will come. Make sure you have a clear closed candle outside of the pattern before you think about opening a trade as there are very often false breakouts and it’s better to have a slightly less favorable entry than to have an entry that will end up getting you stopped out before the trade even starts.
Last but not least, another KEY NOTE to look for when placing your entry is to make sure you watch for a spike or increase in volume upon breakout. This is a solid indication that the selling pressure has been exhausted and the market participants are turning bullish, adding more quality to your trade. ALWAYS LOOK FOR THIS INDICATOR FOR OPTIMAL TRADE RESULTS.
THE ALLOCATION
I generally enter with 25%-50% of my allocation I have set aside for this trade at this point. When you’re actively trading it is important to keep your allocation low as when you have a large amount of your capital in a specific trade the hardest parts about trading start affecting you and coming into play. That is the psychology of the trade. The more money you have in any given trade will draw bigger fear and bigger ego if you have a loss or a win. Both are equally bad in trading and will cause you to lose money. So when I say I allocate 25%-50% of the funds I have for this specific trade you have to keep in mind that you should not be using more than 3% of your total account in any particular trade this, my 25%-50% is actually .75%-1.5% of my total account. This makes it easier to just let the trade ride and to follow my plan regardless if I am correct or wrong about my trade, it’s is a calculated loss with a small amount of capital allowing me to have a higher chance of having a smaller drawdown on my overall capital if the market gets bearish on me while I’m in a few longs. So, getting to the other half of my allocation. Generally a consolidation like this will have a very bullish breakout that will pop a hot few candles out of the pattern and generally head to the .618-.5 fib measured from the top to the bottom of the full falling wedge pattern. At this point I take a small amount of profit. About 50% of my current position. This will leave me with .375%- .75% of my capital still in the trade and a small amount of profit that I made from the initial breakout on the side. Now here comes the most important attribute you need to be a good trader, PATIENCE !!! After my small win, I am looking to enter back into this trade at the official retest of the breakout of the pattern. This generally comes shortly after the first target is hit. Again, patience is imperative to your success as a trader. Wait it out until you have a clear candle back at the entry point before you add your second half of your position.
PATIENCE IS KEY BUT, ALARMS HELP!
Have I mentioned that patience is an important attribute you must have to be a successful trader? Not enough? Ok, we’ll it is! I do know that all of our time is very precious and dear so, I have a small remedy to help with allocations your time so you’re not just starting at your charts… USE ALARMS!! TradingView had everything that you need to be successful, it is your responsibility to learn it so you can earn it! I generally first set an alarm at the entry point of my trade set up that I have identified as well as where I’d expect the stop loss to be. #1, so I can be reminded that the trade has either entered my first entry zone, or to let me know that the trade I have identified may not be what I thought it was and to re assess the situation or find a new trade. Again, patience! So, after my entry alarm goes off and I start my initial position, I then set my stop loss and assure my alarm is set a few pips above my stop loss so I can be alerted before it hits as well as well as an alarm at my first target and one more at my entry point. This way I can be alerted that my first take profit was hit and if the price action comes back down to retest I have an alarm there as well to place my second position along with my profit from the first target TP allocated to the whole trade. At this time I double check that my stop loss is a market stop for my total position and that I have an alarm set up for it that sends a text to my phone just in case!
After this I gage my take profit targets and place alarms on all of them as well.
SETTING YOUR TAKE PROFIT TARGETS
This is what we are here for, the profit right? So it’s important that you have take profit targets (TP TARGETS) on your chart as you need to plan the points you’d like to exit your trade. The first target I find is the total and final take profit of the pattern, which can be determined by measuring the distance between point A and point B which can be found at the beginning of the mouth of the falling wedge as shown in the diagram above on the top of the chart. Once you have the distance measured between points A and B you can then ad this measurement on top of the first area of the breakout candle on the bottom of the falling wedge pattern as soon as the price action shows you where it is breaking out. KEY NOTE is to always make sure you’re being conservative and by this I mean, when placing the distance from A to B on C to D, it is important that you don’t try and get it perfectly to the full measure meant on C To D. What I do is shave off a few % from the total measurement so I can allow for margin of error with my target. Minimum of 3%. Now that I have my final target set up at .99704¢ I then take a Fibonacci tool and run it from the top of the pattern to the bottom of the pattern and place TP targets at both the .5 Fib and the .618 Fib lines. I find that this is the easiest way to get quick targets on a falling wedge pattern that the price action generally will react to while heading to the final target. The .5 Fib is at .34509¢ TP target #2 and the .618 Fib TP target #1 is at .23311¢.
Congrats, you’re almost done with your trading plan! Now to the best part!
GETTING PAID!!
Everyone’s favorite part about trading! Ok, now that you have entered the quality trade, have your risk management set up and are ready to get into some profits here we can set a plan for taking some of those beautiful profits. Now being that we have 3 target areas here I generally have 3 separate take profit %’s that I set up along the way by lieu of limit sell orders for the first two TP targets. My take profit target allocation strategy is generally the 33.3% take profit strategy at every target. So for the first two targets, I will set limit sell orders for 33.3% and a 33.4% of my allocation adding up to 66.7% after the first two targets are hit. This way I am already in profit just in case something goes wrong along the way. KEY NOTE it is always smart to take profit, as if you don’t you’re just an investor without a plan and you’re never profitable until you take profit, so congrats, at this point you’re a profitable trader! Yaaayy!! Ok, so for the final take profit I set a market order as a lot of times when the final take profit comes about the price action can quickly get up to this area and we don’t want to be stuck looking for someone to take the coins off of our hands, we want to get them sold and go celebrate our win by looking for our next trade so we can compound these gains amirite??
So awesome, we have a W on the board so we’re done right? No, there’s another tip you should know in trading to assure profits and apply better risk management strategies. What is this you ask?
KEEPING AS MUCH PROFIT AS YOU CAN
How do we do this? Simple, after your first two take profits hit, which you will be reminded on your cell phone via text messge because you, ya sly devil, you set up alarms on your TP targets and now are going to head over to your exchange and move your stop loss up aren’t ya? Of course you are! Where are you moving it to? Why not make that right at your entry point so not only are we assuring we don’t lose any money on this trade at all, but, we are in fact in profit from 3 separate TP targets that we cashed in on!! NOOOOYCE!! So now that we are deciding on what color Lambo we want, we can assure we still have some bank roll by tossing that stop loss up from .06295¢ to the entry of the trade at .10416¢
Ok, you have it all set up, I wish you the best and make sure you’re doing your own research as I am not a financial advisor nor is this financial advice. Before we end, here is some key note reviews and the signal targets for the original trade below.
KEY NOTE AND TAKEAWAYS
#1: Patience is key to any successful trader success.
#2: Allocation should always be a fraction of your total account
#3: Be sure to identify the structure based on the rules above.
#4: Wait for a CLEAR breakout by looking for a daily candle close above the resistance trend line on the top of the falling wedge
#5:The retest happens after the breakout
#6: Not the 6th most important but, ALWAYS USE A STOP LOSS!!
#7: ALARMS make life easy!
#8: You have to take profit to be profitable! SO TAKE SOME OFTEN!
Entry: Between .08718¢ and .09880¢
Stop loss: .06295¢
TP1: .23311¢
TP2: .34509¢
Final TP3: .99704¢
P.S. it’s always important to know the fundamentals on a coin, so with that said, below are some stats, coin info and a link to the coins website so you can further research it during your DD.
FUNDAMENTALS
Dreams Quest Coin Price & Market Data
Dreams Quest price today is $0.090157396598 with a 24-hour trading volume of $8,589,048. DREAMS price is up 31.4% in the last 24 hours. It has a circulating supply of 0 DREAMS coins and a total supply of 186 Million. If you are looking to buy or sell Dreams Quest, KuCoin is currently the most active exchange.
Dreams Quest is building the first-ever metaverse-based economy, a self-sustaining DreamsVerse where people will be able to participate in the decentralised play-to-earn RPG game using dynamic NFTs. Unknown factors will affect character attributes in-game, and post-game outcomes will dynamically change the NFT card attributes and write them on the blockchain (the ethereal scribes) to show game history for each card.
Website: dreams.quest
XRP and the Legendary Jesse LivermoreToday we are going to discuss the Livermore Cylinder an accumulation patter first identified by Jesse Livermore a Legend in the trading industry as he for the most part is the reason we are all here today doing TA. You will get a little history, a little TA knowledge, a nice chart to help with your DD and some education on the fundamentals of this accumulation pattern.
Jesse Lauriston Livermore ( July 26, 1877 – November 28, 1940 ) was a US based stock trader who was a pioneer in the early days of massive market manipulation, little rules and wild west every operator for themselves days. From my readings of Jesse and Richard Wyckoff (my two favorite historical traders) it was crazy times back then and order needed to be created to help the average trader like you and myself have an edge on the game. Thus these two traders pioneered many techniques that we still use today.
One of those techniques is the Livermore Cylinder accumulation pattern which basses a large wave breakout of "Stock A" on wave 8 after a long accumulation period. As you can see on the chart I have laid out for you, the accumulation matches perfectly aside from the black swan event that came about when the SEC filled suit against Ripple Labs for selling an unregistered stock on December 22 2020. This trading pattern is defined by a cylinder shaped accumulation and further confirmed by the volume relating to the accumulation of the asset. To depict the volume of the accumulation I choose to use the Weis Wave Volume indicator by @LazyBear as it best illustrates the accumulation and distribution visually with the waves better then the traditional volume indicator for this specific pattern.
As you can see in the sketch note on "Example A" on the chart titled "Livermore's Speculative Chart" you will see the diagram drawn by Jesse Livermore depicting the accumulation of each move and the volume behind these moves. In wave 1 you will notice a small volume spike showing that buying pressure is starting to increase as well as at the top of wave 2. Wave 3 shows a sell off as the volume decreases but the accumulation continues into wave 4 which is a high accumulation volume and increase in price action. Wave 5 presents the black swan event of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple Labs causing a sell off which matches the volume indication on wave 5 but, the price action slightly pops out of the Livermore cylinder which is ok as it leveled back out after the cooling off period from the lawsuit. Still though presenting an increase in selling volume as the price then started to increase into wave 6. After wave 6 we experienced the sell of that has us to the current price of today and completing wave 7. Per the rules to this accumulation wave 8 will present a large increase in buying volume as well as a swift increase to price action raising the asset up quickly and most likely creating a large blow off top before heading onto to waves 9,10,11,12,13,14 and 15 which would complete this accumulation patter and bring it back down to most likely be the end of this current bull run.
I will update along the way.
I hope you folks have a very GREEN year ahead in 2022. Tell me something that you learned from your trading endeavors in 2021, lessons, mistakes you learned from or some education that you would like to share with the community in the comments below!
Savvy
First become a good trader then focus on the chartsFor day traders, traders who focus on technical analysis it is very important to first master the mental aspect of trading before they move to actual charting. This blog post and video will help you understand the path you need to take if you are a new or struggling trader.
The biggest challenge we see in new traders is that the new traders want to learn as quickly as possible to earn, they rush into trading live and that "rush" doesn't actually allow them to actually learn how to trade, successful trading comes in two parts, the first is mental skills and the second is a complete trading system, without having both of these traders fail.
I'll quote Richard Dennis, a legendary trader, to explain the importance of mindset,
I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.
Discipline and consistency are mental skills, nothing to do with the system everything to do with the mindset. Meaning that you could have at your disposal the best trading system in the world, but if you don't follow it (with consistency and discipline) you are doomed to failure. - Since you simply won't follow the system.
Most of the great traders that I know or follow, who trade based on charts like us, were great traders first, now once they became great traders (mentally) then, after they because great traders they learned how to read charts and built or learnt trading systems.
Trading is the hardest easy job in the world, easy because you choose everything, from exposure, to when and where you work and all the way to how much you make or lose. You are in control and always will be, but you're only in control when you manage your mindset throughout the day with discipline and consistency.
The main reason we are sharing this is because we have gotten a lot of new members in our community and followers on tradingview, and we just want to help everyone new to us to master their emotions first and then focus on the profits!
Now, while I mention profits above I want to explain the correlation profits have to deeds, I firmly believe in cause and effect, and I believe it works in this way:
poor or average causes = poor or average results (losses, failure, stress)
Good causes = good results
Great or extraordinary causes = great or extraordinary results
Like I mention above, you get to choose everything you do in trading, this is the main difference between actual trading and gambling.
Who are you going to be today? A gambler or a trader? - The choice is always yours!
WHAT WE RECOMMEND TO NEW OR STRUGGLING TRADERS:
Our first recommendation is that you fully focus on yourself, find and accept your weaknesses or limitations.
Weaknesses are overtrading, no patience or discipline. Find them and create plans to remove them, if you're not challenging yourself you cannot be a good or great trader.
Limitations are not having much time, not having capital, not having knowledge, all of which you can work on if you're serious about trading success.
Next is the system, you must find or create a complete trading system... that is the easy part, all you need is a system that governs every aspect of your trading and we have one, not to make this promotional, but you can get our day trade for a living course here and replicate our system.
Now charts are important, very important so you must learn how to read charts, that will only come from practice, lots of practice! Think about it like this, if all the great businessmen/women, sports people and everyone in between practice (read, train etc) don't you think as a trader you need to do the same?
In a nutshell, first develop your mental trading skills, then you can use charts to supplement your trading skills. Just know this, without trading skills your charting knowledge will not be valuable. - You need them both!
8 tips to keep you sharp over the weekend!Tomorrow is Christmas eve, the general markets will be closed, of course crypto will still be rocking and rolling, but the CFD markets will be shut. In day trading it is very easy to get rusty, a few days will do the trick, so with a 3 day weekend approaching we wanted to use this time to help you stay on track so you remain "hot" for the last trading week of 2021!
For those of you who will be celebrating Christmas, you will be busy Friday and Saturday, but we're sure you can find a cheeky hour on Sunday to work on yourself, since the weekend is the perfect time to grind, and do things such as reviewing your trades, seeing which assets moved the most and why (so you can take advantage of these situations in the future).
Today's blog topic will be guidance on what you could work on this weekend to keep yourself hot and not get rusty!
"DO OR DO NOT, THERE IS NO TRY." - YODA
1. THINK HOW CAN YOU IMPROVE YOUR PATIENCE – Having patience as a day trader will help in many ways, one of them being better entries, since entries are directly connected to our PnL it is then a vital skill to acquire, think what you could do to become a more patient trader and create a plan for the new week and apply it on your first opportunity!
2. REVIEW THE MAIN MOVERS THIS WEEK/MONTH – Every successful person, whatever industry it may-be practices a lot, the best way we trades get to practice is to review the charts and see what you could have done to profit in the new week by learning what you missed the week before
3. REVIEW YOUR RULES (PROCESS / ENTRY / EXIT / WATCHLIST) – Always helpful to read over and reevaluate your trading rules, it is a very underrate process, and because the majority of traders do not review their rules and processes they generally do not know what they are nor do they apply them!
4. VISUALIZE SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES – Visualize yourself making good/great trades. see yourself going through different scenarios and achieving the profits you seek. From seeing the perfect setup to executing the trade to exiting the trade, every aspect of trading, see it and feel it. Then also review the challenges you face as a trader, I'm sure you can think of dozens of them!
5. THINK HOW CAN YOU MAKE ONE A+ TRADE AT A TIME - Work on your entry process and criteria, know what the BEST TRADES look like, write it up! So when they show up you can execute with a larger size and maybe bank a much bigger profit than normally.
6. TALK TO EXPERIENCED TRADERS – It is very helpful to get ideas and see what these traders are doing, there is always something for you to learn, even when you become a millionaire trader, you'll still have so much to learn!
7. HOW CAN YOU IMPROVE THE RETETION OF PROFITS – If you are up on the day, set a tighter stop loss to keep your profits, that could always be a solid idea right? There are many ways to retain profits, such as lowering your size after a strong winning streak in a day... but its also your job to think about how you could do this better!
8. WORK ON YOUR PREPARATION – Preparation is Key for success! If you fail to prepare, you prepare to fail! We prepare for a solid hour before we start to trade, there is value in this... so this weekend create your "preparation process" and put it to work!
Ok we are done! Thanks for reading, but before we let you go we have a small request! If you come up with any good ideas that work for you, or have them already, please share them with us we'd love to learn from you too!
Merry Christmas and all the best!