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Tesla Looks to Break $1000 After Finding Strong SupportSadly, my last Tesla call was incorrect and I'll be the first to admit it (maybe second, third or fourth). I think I recall a few naysayers who totally opposed my previous prediction and hindsight, I can't blame them. My previous call was big warning about Tesla slipping below $100. After reviewing my analysis and the Tesla wave structure, we can see that's obviously incorrect. With a little more time and mind into it, I'm supremely confident of what I now have marked up. Expect Tesla to make big rise to the $1300-$1500 range either late in 2021 or early in 2022. Correction should then be ready for a huge drop down towards $150 (0.618 FIB). We will be able to determine a final bear target as Wave A (first of 3) develops and find its mark. Tesla bulls will remain strong throughout the winter. Maybe Elon finally takes his trip to space and gives investors reason for excitement. Surely, something newsworthy will happen to make this all make sense.. :)
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DigitalSurfTrading
2
NIO: to Boost Its Battery Swap Stations' Coverage Along HighwaysThe company also has 341 supercharging stations with 2,176 supercharging piles, 515 destination charging stations with 2,878 piles and access to more than 400,000+ third-party charging piles. The Chinese Lunar New Year holiday is a peak travel time for the public, and NIO wants to significantly expand its battery swap stations' coverage along highways before then to make it easier for its customers to travel by car. The electric vehicle company announced Tuesday that it will have a battery swap network covering eight major highways and four densely populated metropolitan areas by the Chinese New Year in 2022. The next Chinese New Year will come on February 1, 2022, and no official schedule has been released, but the holiday is usually seven days. The holiday is typically a time for people working in major cities to return to their hometowns and will also see one of the world's largest population migrations, although it has waned in size in recent years due to Covid-19 concerns. According to NIO's plan, the company hopes to complete a battery swap network along five north-south highways and three east-west highways by then. The five north-south highways are G1 Beijing-Harbin Expressway, G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway, G5 Beijing-Kunming Expressway, and G15 Shenyang-Haikou Expressway. The three east-west highways are the G30 Lianyungang-Horgos Expressway, the G50 Shanghai-Chongqing Expressway, and the G60 Shanghai-Kunming Expressway. The four metropolitan areas the company hopes to cover are Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Chengdu-Chongqing. William Li, founder, chairman and CEO of NIO, said Tuesday that the company's number of battery swap stations covering the highway now stands at 99 and will increase to 169 by the Chinese New Year. Notably, NIO has previously built battery swap networks covering the G2 Beijing-Shanghai Expressway and the G4 Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway. On September 20, the company announced the completion of its battery swap network covering the G1 Beijing-Harbin Expressway, making it the third fully connected expressway battery swap network. The G1 Beijing-Harbin Expressway is 1,229 kilometers long, and NIO has provided 10 battery swap stations along its route, one every 120 kilometers on average. In addition, NIO announced on September 16 that with three new battery swap stations in highway service areas in operation, it has completed its network of battery swap stations in highway service areas from Beijing to all major cities in the surrounding area. The network consists of 12 highway battery swap stations, centered on Beijing, covering the service areas in Hebei and Tianjin on seven highways: Beijing-Chengde, Beijing-Harbin, Beijing-Lhasa, Beijing-Chongli, Beijing-Shanghai, Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau, and Beijing-Qinhuangdao. According to CnEVPost database, as of September 21, NIO had 484 battery swap stations in China. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
XPeng Says P5 Had 6,159 Orders in 24 Hours of Official LaunchThe company said that 54 percent of those orders were for the LiDAR-equipped models. XPeng Motors said Friday that it accumulated 6,159 orders for its new sedan, the P5, in the first 24 hours of its official launch. The company announced Wednesday evening Beijing time that the P5 became available for order in China in six configurations with a subsidized price range of CNY 157,900 (USD 24,500) to CNY 223,900, and deliveries will begin in late October. XPeng said today that 90 percent of these new orders are for models that support XPILOT 3.5 and XPILOT 3.0, its autonomous driving assistance system. It's worth noting that this does not mean that all of these customers are subscribed to the XPILOT system, as they will need to spend additional money. XPeng did not disclose the percentage of customers who subscribed to the service. XPeng debuted a new naming scheme for the P5 model, with the P representing the model's highest level of intelligence, followed by the E and G. The numbers in the names of the different models represent their NEDC ranges. The P series, with the highest intelligence rating, offers a choice of 550 km and 600 km NEDC ranges, while the E and G series both offer a choice of 460 km and 550 km ranges. Among these models, only two models of the P series are equipped with LiDAR, priced at CNY 199,900 and 223,900 respectively. They can allow users to pay for a subscription to XPILOT 3.5 at a standard price of CNY 45,000, and users will be able to enjoy a discounted price of CNY 25,000 if they subscribe before delivery. The two E series models are priced at CNY 177,900 and CNY 192,900 respectively. They allow users to pay for a subscription to XPILOT 3.0 at a standard price of CNY 36,000, and users will be able to enjoy a discounted price of CNY 20,000 if they subscribe before delivery. The two models of the G series are priced at CNY 157,900 and CNY 172,900 respectively and do not support the XPILOT system. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:XPEV
by EqualOcean
XPeng Launches P5 Sedan with Starting Price around USD 24,500The company has secured a supply partnership with SK Innovation (SKI), a South Korean power battery supplier, which will provide it with high nickel-based Li-ion batteries with 80% nickel content. After two months of pre-sales, XPeng Motors' new sedan, the P5, officially went on sale on September 15 at prices several thousand CNY lower than the pre-sale prices. XPeng announced at a press conference on Wednesday that the P5 is immediately available for order in China in six configurations with a subsidized price range of CNY 157,900 (USD 24,500) to CNY 223,900, and deliveries will begin in late October. The exact post-subsidy pricing for these models is as follows: 600P CNY 223,900 550P CNY 199,900 550E CNY 192,900 460E CNY 177,900 550G CNY 172,900 460G CNY 157,900 For comparison, XPeng's flagship sedan, the P7, has a starting price of CNY 229,900. The P5 went on pre-sale on July 17 with a price range of CNY 160,000 (USD 24,700) to CNY 230,000. XPeng debuted a new naming scheme on the P5 model, with P representing the model's highest level of intelligence, followed by E and G. The numbers in the names of the different models represent their NEDC range. The P series with the highest intelligence level offers 550 km and 600 km NEDC range options, while the E series and G series both offer 460 km and 550 km range options. The battery for the 460 km range model is a lithium iron phosphate battery, while the 550 km and 600 km versions are ternary lithium batteries. XPeng previously boasted that the P5 is the world's first LiDAR-equipped model, but it is worth noting that only the P Series is equipped with this component, while the E Series and G Series models are not equipped with LiDAR. In terms of intelligent configuration, the P series comes with XPILOT 3.5 driver assistance system, the E series comes with XPILOT 3.0, while the G series does not offer this system. The XPILOT 3.5 enables the extension of NGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) from highways to city roads. The standard price of XPILOT 3.5 is CNY 45,000, and subscribers will be able to enjoy a limited-time discounted price of CNY 25,000 if they subscribe before delivery. The standard price for XPILOT 3.0 is CNY 36,000 and 20,000 if users subscribe before delivery. The urban NGP will allow high precision navigation and assisted driving, adapted to China's challenging urban road conditions. NGP will also be upgraded to NGP-L - a highway NGP with LiDAR - to enable safer and more capable assisted driving on China's highways and expressways, the company said. XPeng's existing ACC and LCC systems will also be upgraded and enhanced to ACC-L and LCC-L status in P5, which incorporates LiDAR to enable P5 to identify congested vehicles earlier and stationary vehicles more accurately. "With the P5, we have delivered a new level in sophistication and technological advancement for smart EVs in China, at a competitive price point," said He Xiaopeng, Chairman and CEO of XPeng. "We believe this is an age of intelligence, and that intelligence will redefine mobility as a whole. Now we have made the best-in-class smart family sedan available at the CNY 200,000 price range, bringing some of the most advanced driver assistance functionality to China's vast and fast-growing middle-class consumer base," He said. "We have drawn inspiration from customers' feedback, especially during the pandemic, and from the best models in the conventional family sedan and recreational vehicle (RV) class, while taking functionality and features to a whole new level," He added. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:XPEV
by EqualOcean
Cango's Recent Moves Show Its Business ResilienceThe company generated CNY 558 million in net profit in Q2 2021, up 695% from a year ago. Cango facilitates transactions through a technology-enabled service platform in China's automotive industry. The country's auto market is reviving and is set to be in a growth trajectory for quite some time. The company has expanded its upstream business, entering the flourishing NEV market. Though the local NEV leaders are prone to sell cars directly, dealers will keep playing an important role in the Chinese market, especially in the lower-tier cities. Cango's stock looks cheap now. The relieved travel restrictions have revived trading activity in China's passenger vehicle market, the world's largest in terms of both demand and supply. Cango (CANG:NYSE), a company aimed at disrupting the auto value chain in China, has presented solid Q2 2021 results. This article will introduce Cango, its strategy and future development outlook. Introduction In 2010, Cango was founded by a group of veterans in China's auto financing industry with the idea of making auto transactions "simpler, easier and more pleasant." There was a certain degree of demand for such a platform in China's vast but underserved lower-tier cities' markets. Started with auto loan services, the company's scope later stretched to the vehicle sales business upstream and after-market services downstream. By the end of 2020, Cango had built a network consisting of 47,740 auto dealers, accumulatively serving more than 1.9 million car buyers. The company currently covers more than 1/3 of China's total new car dealers, and over 75% of dealers in Cango's network are located in tier 3-5 cities. Over the past ten years, the company has established a technology-driven platform that connects various participants along the auto value chain, including dozens of large and mid-sized commercial banks, insurance firms, as well as major gasoline vehicle OEMs and high-tech new energy vehicle (NEV) OEMs. China's auto market is back on a growth trajectory Cango's business is rooted in the flourishing auto trading activities in China. Although the pandemic has hammered buying cars in brick-and-mortar stores, the total transactions have shown resilience. According to CPCA, the Chinese light vehicle sales hit 19 million in 2020, down 6.8% year-on-year. However, the outlook for future sales is rather encouraging: CAAM expects the market to grow by 10% in 2021. Moreover, the organization forecasts that the 2025 sales will reach 30 million, with a CAGR of 4.6% from 2021 to 2025. The driving force of surging future sales will be the rise of per capita ownership of cars. Based on the World Bank's data, China's car ownership was 283 units per thousand inhabitants in 2019. At the same time, China's population density was 149 people per kilometer squared, GDP per capita was USD 10,276. By comparison, Japan and South Korea are more densely populated, have higher GDP and car ownership rates per capita. Thus, China's auto market sees great potential. Lower-tier cities are showing strong momentum in the rise of the car ownership rate. There are several catalysts. One is the policy of 'sending cars to the countryside' under which people who live in rural places receive subsidies when buying cars. Electric vehicles have been added into the list in recent years. Second, lower-tier cities in China often have no restrictions on getting vehicle plates, further stimulating car sales. Third, citizens in lower-tier cities have less debt burden on housing so that they can potentially spend more money buying cars. Cango's next big move Following the big trend, Cango also stepped up its efforts in the NEV market. NEV manufacturers, which usually adopt the direct operation and sales model, are actively seeking traffic in the lower-tier markets and professional traffic operation support. Cango's strong foothold in the lower-tier markets and service capabilities in auto transaction puts it in an ideal position to meet its needs. Although some in the industry argue that NEVs' direct sales won't need dealers and related service providers like Cango, we believe, however, that dealers will continue to play an important role in the new segment's development. Inspired by Tesla, China's NEV market was initially driven mainly by direct sales. This model was soon adopted by other EV players, including NIO, Xpeng and Li Auto. Intuitively, direct sales skip dealers so that ensures better customer services and more profit to OEMs however incurs large front costs of opening new stores. Currently, all the public EV companies' valuations are very sensitive to the vehicle delivery numbers. The relationship between electric car brands and dealers is dialectical. In 2018 and 2019, some brands like NIO and Xpeng needed funds to open new stores. After raising enough funds through IPOs, NIO and Xpeng both decided to lower the number of franchised stores. So far, EV brands have accumulated a lot of orders, but short-term deliveries are restricted to their production capacity. As production ramps up, same-store sales will touch the ceiling, especially in the lower-tier cities. By that time, these brands are likely to reconstruct the dealer network. Besides, not all NEV brands have enough capital to open and run offline stores independently. This makes incorporations with dealers almost inevitable. Meanwhile, NEV brands try to minimize their sales and marketing costs through an offline-to-online mode, which considers experiencing a vehicle offline, then buying it on a digital platform. High efficiency will be difficult to achieve with such a method. First of all, for most families, especially those living in lower-tier cities, a car purchase is an important event requiring both time and capital. If there is no physical store nearby, the customer experience will be downgraded. Second, brand variety is essential in the auto sector. OEMs' products face millions of requirements from picky buyers, and a few car brands are unlikely to satisfy all requirements. Besides, as the US and Japan's history has shown, dealers aren't likely to be pushed out of the market. The United States' long automotive history has proven how important dealerships are in a large and populous country. China shares similar attributes. According to iiMedia, there are currently 287 million cars in China, with 72 cities having more than one million cars, 33 cities having more than two million cars. What's more, car buyers across the country have different consumption behavior patterns. For example, lower-tier cities' dwellers prefer domestic brands' full-size vehicles. In the Eastern regions, buyers have a higher acceptance of electric cars than their inland peers. In short, for NEV players, it's hard to adopt a standard promotion strategy in such a diverse market. Distributors and adjacent service providers like Cango can coordinate resources, making the process more resilient. Being a middleman Apart from stepping into NEV business. Cango is striving to expand the business upstream including B2B and B2C. By the end of Q2 2021, the company has CNY 1.5 billion cash on hand, enough to support this new asset-light business. For example, owing to its relationship with registered dealers, Cango can provide demand-side insights from dealers to OEMs and vice versa. Cango helps dealers get vehicles they want. For B2C, Cango helps prospective car buyers find suitable cars in its dealer network. All of these are processed through their massive network on a tech-enabled platform. In its Q2 2021 earnings results, the company reported over 50% of total revenues generated from its auto trading business segment. This figure looks significant, considering that Cango's expansion into the sector started in H1 2020. Though this part of the business currently posted a lower gross margin (being positive, meanwhile), we believe it is necessary, even critical, for Cango to expand to upstream segments. By doing so, it will synergize the auto financing business and reduce single business risk. More importantly, with the integration of car sources, financing, insurance and other after-market services, the company gets to strengthen the bond with its dealership network. We can find similar stories in the history of all the large car servicing companies. For example, US firm CarMax integrated auto financing and used car business. It has been facing competition from online used car platforms in recent years. To address the problem, CarMax rolled out its 'omnichannel platform,' which is aimed at allowing customers to buy a car online, in-store, or through any combination of the two. Cango's new business is similar to that of CarMax, getting through the information asymmetry between buyers and sellers. Chinese dealers are also adjusting their strategies to acquire larger chunks of the auto value chain. Zhongsheng Group, a high-end vehicle dealer, is concentrating on the used car business. Another dealership brand China Grand Automotive's business model consists of related businesses like auto financing. Risks We consider Cango's expansion to upstream business risky. As per above, large Chinese dealerships have been expanding their business scope and they may have the same addressable market. But luckily, Cango is deeply rooted in lower-tier cities, which are less attractive for large competitors. Most overseas-listed Chinese stocks are currently facing a number of regulatory risks. However, as we stated in our previous NIO analysis, the government is targeting tech giants, as well as education and gaming businesses. In other words, sectors that directly influence the social sphere. Auto dealerships are less likely to suffer from the crackdown. Summary Cango has decided to expand its business to new energy and other upstream business segments. This strategic orientation is well-weighted and mainly based on two points. The separation of NEV OEMs and dealers will come and go, with the two models coexisting for a long time. Based on global examples, business diversity is necessary for a small car servicing company to grow. In addition, Cango's business is highly dependent on the auto trading activity in China, which is back on a growth trajectory and will contribute to the company's growth. Notwithstanding, the tumultuous summer of 2021 saw Cango decline to a historical low. This has triggered the company to launch a share buy-back program. We consider Cango an interesting investment opportunity at these levels. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:CANGLong
by EqualOcean
XPeng Delivered 7,214 Vehicles in Aug, Up 172% from a Year AgoXpeng P5 will officially go on sale on September 15, and deliveries will start at the end of October. XPeng Motors delivered 7,214 vehicles in August, up 172 percent year-over-year and down 10 percent from July. The company delivered 6,165 P7s and 1,049 G3s in July. 2021 year-to-date deliveries reached 45,992 vehicles, representing a 334 percent increase year-over-year. P7 deliveries continued to strengthen, achieving a record month in August and a 209 percent increase year-over-year. The production preparation and switching of G3i is expected to have an impact on G3 and G3i’s production and delivery for a few weeks, XPeng CEO He Xiaopeng said during the company's second-quarter earnings call. "We plan to start deliveries at the end of August and will increase delivery scale in the next quarter," He said. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:XPEV
by EqualOcean
NIO Delivered 5,880 Vehicles in Aug, Up 48% from a Year AgoThe company has begun allowing customers to test drive ES8 in Norway. NIO delivered 5,880 vehicles in August, up 48 percent year-over-year and down about 26 percent from July. The deliveries consisted of 1,738 ES8s, 2,342 ES6s, and 1,800 EC6s. Supply chain disruptions in Malaysia and Nanjing, China, caused by local pandemic outbreaks, significantly hampered production, NIO said. The supplier of the A/B pillar interior trims in Nanjing, China was affected in August, the company said, adding that the supplier has now resumed production. Orders in August grew to a new historic record, the company said. NIO cuts its deliveries guidance for the third quarter by 500-1,500 units. The new deliveries guidance for the third quarter is between 22,500 and 23,500 vehicles. NIO is confident about the delivery result for September, it said. NIO said internal calculations showed the Covid-19 in August affected the company's production of about 2,000 to 3,000 units for the month. The company hopes to try to make up for the August production lost in September by collaborating with supply chain partners and adjusting the production pace of its plants. But even so, there will still be an impact of about 1,000-2,000 units for the entire quarter. NIO said order performance remains strong, with new orders reaching a record high in August. If supply chain problems do not deteriorate further, September deliveries can set another monthly delivery record, it said. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:NIO
by EqualOcean
Trading Idea - #VARTA (Head+Shoulders formation)SELL ENTRY: 132.40 EUR TARGET: 83.55 EUR (37% profit) STOP: 154.45 EUR 1.) Technically a head and shoulders formation could form. 2.) 135.00 EUR is a significant resistance level. Rejection expected! 3.) As expected, the battery manufacturer's start to the year was weak. 4.) VARTA and Allgäu Batterie enter into partnership for lithium-ion battery packs. 5.) VARTA develops mobile energy packages for everything from headphones to car
XETR:VAR1Short
by Traderherz-Analytics
3
NIO Begins Allowing Customers to Test Drive ES8 in NorwayNio will enter the German market in 2021 at the earliest. NIO has started allowing Norwegian users to test-drive its ES8 SUV, marking its latest step in entering the international market. NIO Norway User Head An Ho shared the news on the NIO App, saying that the test drives opened on August 30 and nearly 300 spots were filled within three days of application. On the first day of the test drive, about 60 Norwegian users got to experience the ES8 first-hand, Ho said. At the performance experience area on the runway at Eggemoen Airport near Oslo, test drivers experienced the ES8's acceleration, as well as its handling performance. At the local Heen Grustak off-road track, test drivers experienced the vehicle's performance in off-road scenarios. NIO built a Mini version of the NIO House in Eggemoen Airport, where users can enjoy drinks from the NIO Café, according to Ho. In addition, NIO transported an NIO EP9 supercar from the UK to the test drive venue, allowing users in Norway to get up close with the car. This is NIO's latest move in the Norwegian market. The company's app for Norwegian users was made available on the local App Store and Google Play Store on August 16. The launch of the app means that local users are starting to have an exclusive online community, which NIO says "Shape a Joyful Lifestyle, is a vision we are pursuing together." The app currently offers Discover, This Moment, a personal account management page, and NIO Life, meaning the company is bringing its lifestyle brand to Norway as well. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
1
LCID Support!Hello Money Makers! LCID is approaching another key support zone. This area has proven to be a great place to go long in the past. A lot of great news has been coming out about this company in relation to Tesla. I see them being one of the next leaders in EV, along with a few other options I'm sure you're all aware of. Let's see if this support holds. if not, we can expect prices to drop to the next S/R zone shown below. Stop losses are KEY in areas like this Money Makers! Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. Simplicity Wins
NASDAQ:LCID
by rnaofs
BYD, China's Next Hardware GiantAccording to Wilson's report, the average price of BYD's vehicles has surpassed that of popular joint venture brand Volkswagen by about CNY 10,000. BYD is an automobile company that provides vehicles, EV batteries, semiconductors and electronics foundry services. We estimate its stock's value based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method. The company's EV and battery businesses account for most of the valuation. We consider BYD to be currently undervalued and expect a 22% upbeat. In 2020, the Chinese NEV market had a stellar performance – NIO, Xpeng and Li Auto all delivered considerable volumes of vehicles. Meanwhile, we spotlight BYD, a car maker once invested by Warren Buffett, as a best-in-class electric vehicle company. With its solid fundamentals, BYD is likely to become a major hardware conglomerate – much like Tencent or Alibaba in the consumer Internet sector. This article will examine the company's business segments, touch upon potential risks, and conduct an SOTP analysis to value its shares. Intro Wang Chuanfu incorporated BYD in 1995, inspired by the prospects of the Li-ion battery applications. Since then, he has led the company, building it into an agile manufacturing mammoth capable of starting new ventures and succeeding quickly across many fields. For one, BYD started to produce face masks in the first days of the COVID-19 outbreak and has now become the biggest mask producer worldwide. Its business segments remain the same though – those are internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EVs, power batteries, auto semiconductors and electronics assembly services. Auto OEM BYD sells both ICE vehicles and EVs, primarily in China (but is getting more active abroad). In 2020, it sold 231,000 units of ICE cars, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 3.8%. The parts sales accounted for a significant share of total revenue but remained less profitable. Now, BYD is full speed ahead to transform itself into an EV-based company. Because BYD didn't disclose its total ICE car sales revenue, we broke down its revenue streams and assumed the average selling price (ASP) was between CNY 100,000 to CNY 110,000. Therefore, ICE generated revenue of CNY 24 billion in 2020. We expect the ICE business will drop 10% in the next few years as the sales momentum will shift to EV. In 2022, the revenue will reach CNY 19.4 billion. With a 2x PS ratio based on Great Wall Motor and Geely Auto, the ICE business will be valued at CNY 38 billion. In the meantime, EV sales has become the most valuable business – last year, BYD sold 162,000 EVs, a YoY decrease of 12.5%. After upgrading the 'dynasty' EV series, BYD entered the middle-to-high-end market. The series adopts self-made 'blade batteries' to prevent EV from battery catching fire. The hit model 'Han,' a car somewhat similar to Tesla's Model 3 and Xpeng P7, sold 8,522 units in July, surpassing the sales volume of NIO and Xpeng. According to the 2020 financial report, BYD made CNY 24.4 billion in revenue from EV sales. We project the EV sales will increase by 100% (based on the fact that sales from January to July 2021 surpassed last year's figure) and by 25% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. We also assume the ASP will increase by 5% in 2021 and 2022 as more high-end models are delivered. For these two years, the revenue will hit CNY 51 billion and 67 billion. With a 10x 2022 PS ratio, the EV department is worth CNY 670 billion. Power battery sales is another core business for BYD alongside EVs. According to SNE research, BYD's installed capacity reached (link in Chinese) 7.8 GWh during the first half of 2021, ranking No.4 worldwide. This is 23% of CATL's installed capacity. Therefore, conservatively speaking, we estimate the market capitalization of BYD's battery division will be one-fifth of CATL's. Thus, the power battery business is worth CNY 240 billion, based on the fact that CATL's market cap had already reached CNY 1,200 billion as of August 9, 2021. BYD Semiconductors Semiconductor manufacturing is another important segment for BYD. It is set to be spun off from BYD to go public. It features auto semiconductors, which provide IGBT, smart control IC, sensors and optoelectronic semiconductors. BYD semiconductors can independently design, manufacture, package and test chips. It is the only company to achieve this in China. Based on our latest report, auto chips will be in high demand as more vehicles will be electrified in the future. As per BYD's 2020 report, the semiconductor business was valued at CNY 7.5 billion in May 2021. We believe the figure will triple while launching on the open market. It is estimated that BYD will deliver semiconductors worth up to CNY 20 billion. BYD Electronic Apart from providing high-end products, BYD also made CNY 60 billion toplines (38% of total 2020 revenue) from assembling smartphones, tablet computers and laptops. These products show low profitability similar to other electronics foundries like Hon Hai Precision. We refer to Hon Hai's 0.25x 2022 PS ratio and project 12% growth in the next two years. We calculated that BYD Electronic is valued at CNY 18 billion. To sum up, BYD is valued at CNY 988 billion. Even so, we think the estimation is a bit conservative as some assumptions aren't considered in it. BYD's EV will deploy more self-made batteries and chips, which will save a lot of costs for the company in the long term. What's more, rumors said BYD's battery had been tested by Tesla and would likely be equipped with Tesla's vehicles. This potential opportunity will significantly boost BYD's valuation in the battery division. Risks BYD's EV sales were affected by the industry's downslide in 2019 and 2020. Moreover, the EV market has been involved with intensified competition, as proved by the price slash of a few models and few companies leaving. BYD, with its comprehensive business mix, should have the means to face these challenges. Conclusion Viewed as part of the big picture, BYD is a company less profitable than some of its auto peers – one with a 2.6% net profit margin in 2020. We consider the company to have set margin improvement as a long-term goal, while also expanding in the EV battery and related battery segments. Although BYD just saw a market cap rally in the past few days, we believe it is still undervalued and has a 22% upbeat opportunity as of August 20, 2021.
OTC:BYDDFLong
by EqualOcean
Wyckoff Accumulation HYLN updated 8/19EV sector continues to show behind the scenes buying from HFs/tutes (look at unusualwhales.com and sort by date of 13F filing). in a previous post, i shared this idea and thought that the accumulation was happening without this downward move into a spring happening. clearly i was incorrect, as we saw very strange -4% days all in a row--which appears very "manipulated" when you also account for increased volume. (i hate using that term "manipulated" but what i mean is that the price was suppressed to allow for more accumulation by those who have the capital to do so).
HLong
by barrymeindrinks
1
Li Auto: Challenges, Opportunities and Stock ValuationThe company is expected to report its Q2 2021 financial results on August 30. Li Auto will use the money from the secondary public offering to develop a battery EV. Li ONE is a good-selling model – but the company is yet to prove its ability to roll out a mature BEV. There are concerns about Li's technology and goal-setting, but there is room for improvement. Li Auto is fairly priced. Investors who have faith in EREV are encouraged to buy into the stock now. On August 12, 2021, Li Auto (LI:NASDAQ) started trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It has become the second Chinese EV company to be listed on both hemispheres. Having collected CNY 11.6 billion while operating on dry powder, how will the company expand afterward? This article will do a business review of Li Auto and value its stock. The impediments arising from COVID-19 have not stopped China's EV market from sprinting in 2021. Among a wealth of EV companies, Li Auto delivered 38,743 units of Li ONE in the first half of that year, surpassing the previous year's figure. But the company's fundamentals are still somewhat overshadowed by those of its counterparts in the space. Technical bottlenecks, unrealistic goals According to our previous research, Li Auto has spent a lower percentage of revenue on research and development compared with NIO and Xpeng. More importantly, the Li ONE model uses the range extender as a core technology, one that has been used globally for some years now. Specifically, this technology was first commercially used on the Chevy Volt and the Nissan LEAF in late 2010. The extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) is fully powered by electric motors but has an internal combustion engine (ICE) to generate additional electric power. The battery pack will supply power to motors when it is fully charged. When the battery's power decreases to a specified level, the ICE-powered generator switches on to supply power to the electric motor and/or recharges the battery. The technology allows ICE to charge batteries but consumes noticeably less fuel than conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Thus, vehicle owners can either charge cars with gasoline or electricity. In short, the range extender is a transitional solution and will likely be outdated in a few years as the battery cost quickly decreases and EV infrastructure upgrades. Presumably, BEV will account for a higher percentage of EV as EV penetrates the broader market. BEV development needs to meet professionalism/technology thresholds in battery, electric control and electric motor. Although most OEMs buy solutions from tier-one or tier-two manufacturers, a lot of work is needed for benchmarking and integrating these components into a mature product. Li Auto doesn't have enough expertise in this field. Based on Li's most recent prospectus, the company plans to roll out two new BEVs in 2023. We have doubts about whether the company will be able to finalize a mature product at that time. Besides, Li Auto's management set an exaggerated expectation of the company's EV sales that has alerted its investors. In February 2021, the company announced its outlook internally. The founder set a goal for the company to reach 1.6 million in annual EV sales by 2025. Such a target will be hard to achieve. 1.6 million vehicles equal Toyota's 2019 sales in China. Toyota, the Japanese auto giant, has been selling cars in the Chinese market for 20 years and has accumulated a much larger customer base and global reputation than Li Auto. An ambition to become a brand as famous as Toyota in five years appears challenging, to say the least. Having 1.6 million deliveries by 2025, inter alia, means that the annual delivery figures are projected to grow at a 170% CAGR, a rather high rate. Opportunities and attempts to catch up Notwithstanding, Li Auto still has an opportunity to join the group of tech leaders. Within the fast-growing EV industry, there are many suppliers providing solutions like ADAS, Lidar and third-party charging infrastructure – and, incentivized by China's state policies, new upstarts appear daily in these areas. The technological 'backwardness' of Li Auto might be resolved through a couple of acquisitions. The company, meanwhile, is taking some actions to drive innovation internally; for example, it started building an R&D center in Shanghai in April 2021. Li ONE, a best-selling model, also brought the public's attention to Li Auto. Li Auto's management expects over 10,000 sales in September 2021. We think the reason Li Auto has such strong momentum is due to its product positioning. One of the examples will be a family-oriented SUV with 6 to 7 seats. Compared to the competing models with the same price, this SUV is equipped with an entertainment system that includes three screens and appears to be a more economical option. The consistency in product positioning has made Li Auto a popular brand. Valuation To evaluate Li Auto's stock in a simplistic manner, we forecast Li's 2022 car sales will be around 130,000 to 140,000 units. With an assumed average revenue generated per car of CNY 284,000, according to the Q1 2021 financials, the total revenue for 2022 will be USD 5.7 billion to USD 6.1 billion. Because of Li Auto's ongoing technology transition, the multiple is halved to 5 times of 2022 revenue. Therefore, the projected market capitalization of Li Auto is USD 28.5 billion to USD 30.5 billion. Conclusion Li ONE is highly likely to maintain strong sales momentum in the short run. But 2023 will be a challenging year depending on whether the company can succeed in rolling out battery electric vehicles. Compared with NIO, Xpeng and BYD, the stock is at half of their EV divisions' multiples and priced at a reasonable level. Due to some technical and strategic issues, the company's outlook is mixed. Now is a good time for investors who have faith in EREV to make a decision.
NASDAQ:LILong
by EqualOcean
BYD Enters Europe with Delivering Tang EV in NorwayThe Shenzhen-based firm has imported a total of 100 units of the Tang EV to the Scandinavian nation. The Chinese EV-maker shipped the first 100 BYD Tang EVs from Shanghai to Norway about two months ago which was the company's first passenger car shipment to a European country. BYD plans to deliver as many as 1,500 units of the BYD Tang EV to dealers in Norway this year. The company has pre-sold 500 units in the country already. Along with its Scandinavian distributor RSA, the Chinese auto veteran has built up a network of 45 dealers. The subsidized price of the EV in China is CNY 279,500 to 314,800, while the car will be sold for about 600,000 Norwegian kroner in Norway which is about CNY 130,000 more expensive. In July this year, BYD's sales of new energy passenger cars soared by 262.7% year-on-year to reach 50,057 units, setting a new record for the firm's own monthly sales. It also marked a record high for China's monthly sales of new energy passenger cars.
OTC:BYDDF
by EqualOcean
NIKOLA: NKLA Can Be A Good Buy NowTraders, Nikola price has been it badly but it has reached a level where it can be a good buy on the completion of a good FCP pattern. Beware of the fact that this pattern can become extended to the downside. Hence we have to possible BUY zones Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik
NASDAQ:NKLALong
by vikinsa
16
NIO's Strong Q2 2021 Results: Revenue Up 127%, Net Loss HalvesThe electric vehicle maker generated CNY 8.45 billion this quarter, getting closer to break even. On August 11, 2021, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker NIO (NIO:NYSE) released its financial report for the second quarter of 2021, with most key figures improving year on year: The total revenue hit CNY 8.45 billion, up by 127.2% from Q2 2020 and by 5.8% quarter on quarter. CNY 7.91 was made from car sales: NIO beat analysts' estimates, completing 21,896 vehicle deliveries in the second quarter. Net loss reached CNY 587.2 million, shrinking by 50.1% from Q2 2020 but increasing by 30.2% from Q1 2021. R&D cost grew by 62.1% year on year, reaching CNY 880 million; it now equals 10.4% of the firm's total revenue. While world-leading EV maker Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) is facing demand-side issues in the Chinese market, its local competitors are jumping in to fill the void. Through supply chain optimization and effective marketing messaging, NIO is solidifying its position as the domestic champion in the EV market's premium segment. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
Wyckoff Accumulation in HYLNBiden's signing of the Electric Vehicle executive order may be a tailwind for HYLN (Hyliion), the Texas-based company producing EV motors and retrofitting hybrid systems for long-haul trucking fleets. Add to that the proposed I-14 expansion between Texas and Georgia and the electric vehicle charging stations included in the current Infrastructure Bill going through congress, I believe there is a buying opportunity here of which many hedge funds and institutional investors are already aware. This accumulation is happening already, with 13F filings on whalewisdom.com showing that since 7/26, HFs have initiated new positions to the tune of roughly 800K shares long, and those already with positions have increased their holdings by over 1.25m shares in the same time period. This can be seen on the chart as well, with this classic Wyckoff Accumulation pattern playing out nicely. Add in a heavy amount of short interest, and upcoming earnings, and this stock could really make a move on positive PR.
HLong
by barrymeindrinks
8
BYD Sold 50,492 NEVs in July, Up 234% from a Year AgoBYD may supply its "blade battery" to Tesla in the second quarter of next year. BYD's new energy vehicle sales in July were 50,492 units, up 234 percent from a year ago and 22 percent from June. So far this year, BYD has sold 205,071 new energy vehicles, an increase of 170.62 percent over the same period last year, it said in an announcement. BYD sold 50,057 units of new energy passenger vehicles and 435 units of commercial vehicles in July. It sold 24,996 battery electric vehicles and 25,061 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in July. Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's passenger vehicle brand and public relations division, said in early June that the company's new energy vehicle sales will surpass Tesla China in June and is expected to become the global new energy vehicle champion within the year. BYD sold 41,366 new energy vehicles in June, up 192 percent from the same month last year and 26 percent from May. By comparison, according to the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla China's wholesale sales in June were 33,155 units, up about 122 percent year-over-year. This article was first published by Phate Zhang on CnEVPost, a website focusing on new energy vehicle news from China.
OTC:BYDDF
by EqualOcean
NIO Sprints Back into Growth Mode – No Regulatory Risk Thus FarNIO delivered 7,931 vehicles in July 2021, up 124.48% year-on-year, down 2% month-on-month. ● We estimate NIO's 2022 revenue to show the value of the stock. ● The methodology includes a car sales forecast and average selling prices. ● Our evaluation indicates that the stock is currently fairly priced. ● None of the currently acute regulatory risks apply to NIO. Introduction NIO, China's arguably most successful EV startup, saw an incredible performance both business-wise and in the capital market. More investors have joined the camp of those bullish about the electric car maker's prospects. In 2021, NIO has been solidifying a high premium profile in China, launching a new model, the ET7. NIO has also recently started shipping the ES8 to Norway, with global expansion ambitions. This article follows an approach similar to that we used in our latest Xpeng analysis, estimating the value of the stock based on its projected future sales performance. Revenue estimation In this section, we will project NIO's revenue by 2030 and use the 2022 figure to evaluate the stock's current investment potential. The revenue will be calculated by multiplying projected car deliveries with average selling prices. The calculation of whole fleet (including ES6, EC6, ES8 and ET7) sales is based on a top-down methodology. It starts with a forecast of light vehicle sales in China. According to CAAM (link in Chinese), China's light-vehicle sales will hit 22.2 million in 2021. Under an assumption of slowing economic growth affecting the auto market, we estimate the growth rate will decline to 4% gradually. The market will reach 32.6 million in 2030. Speaking of the market share, we assume NIO can reach 2.4% of the total market by 2030. It results from the fact that William Li, the founder of NIO, has aligned the company's goals with those of iconic brands like Mercedes Benz, BMW and Audi. We linearized that number and estimated NIO's 2022 market share and deliveries, which will account for 0.6% and 152,066 units, respectively. To calculate the revenue, we also need to project the average selling price (ASP). Historically, NIO's ASP has been declining as new models have been rolled out. This trend will continue, whereas we think the ASP will remain higher than CNY 300,00 per vehicle. We set a declining rate for ASP calculation, from -2% in 2021 to -0.5% in 2030. The ASP in 2022 will be CNY 328,000. Per this projection, NIO's 2022 vehicle sales will be CNY 50 billion. Apart from car sales, NIO also generates revenue from selling charging facilities and related services, data, insurance and merchandise. These segments have correlated to vehicle sales and shown a faster growth pace. Thus, we project a slightly increasing percentage of revenue from selling them. In 2020, the number was 6%, and we allocated 7% and 9% for 2022 and 2030, respectively. In total, NIO is expected to make CNY 53.5 billion (USD 8 billion) in revenue in 2022. Similar to our Xpeng analysis, we multiplied NIO's PS ratio in 2022 by nine (referring to the Street's average expectations). Its fair market capitalization target is thereby around USD 74 billion. Risks NIO has recently been indirectly involved in the regulatory crackdown-related narrative. We think investors' massive selling may insignificantly hurt the company's business. To specify all the possible risks, we summarize all the incidents concerning Chinese concept stocks within this year. The antitrust and other new regulations are the key obstacle imposed by the central government. Some famous 'victim' cases include Tencent Music's copyrights, Alibaba's 'pick one from two' strategy and Meituan's rider employment and other issues. Obviously, the NEV market in China is still in its infancy (compared with ICE cars). NIO is certainly not a monopoly. Data/cybersecurity concerns are also not suitable for NIO. In early July 2021, it was reported that Didi Global had illegally collected users' personal data. Clearly, the ride-hailing giant possesses huge chunks of users' travel information. However, NIO is also collecting data that seems less significant than important route data handled by legitimate third-party providers like map products of Baidu and the likes of AutoNavi. NIO and its peers won't see anything like what happened to the country's edtech industry either: the central government, which is ''seeking to decrease workloads for students and overhaul a sector that has been 'hijacked by capital,'" is rather interested in the nationwide EV adoption. In short, NIO, much like any local EV maker, is not exposed to these major risks. Apart from regulatory risk, supply chain issues are worth discussing. The issues seem to remain controllable, but investors need to keep eyes on them – the component shortage will be a hot topic in the upcoming Q2 earnings calls. Conclusion Among Chinese concept stocks, NIO is a company with a solid product line, growing sales and great prospects. The stock has gone down and has remained volatile since the beginning of 2021. Suffering from the chip shortage, it is currently fairly priced. And is well set to gain more in the following quarters. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NYSE:NIOLong
by EqualOcean
1