Is Minor Wave 4 Over?Our newest system is online and in the Beta testing phase for forecasting waves. We will use this to project Minor wave 4 endpoints on an hourly chart.
Based on historical data, models for waves ending in BC54, are broken into the following quartile retracement levels: 10.12%, 32.79%, and 40.09%. Strongest model agreement for length points to Minor wave 4 lasting 9 trading hours with second most agreement at 21 hours. Third agreement is 13 hours and then 18 hours.
Based on waves ending in C54, the quartile retracement levels are 26.15%, 36.62% and 48%. The length in trading hours has strongest agreement at 13 hours, then 9 hours, 3 hours, and 10 hours. Fifth is a tie at 5 and 18 trading hours. The 26.15% level equates to a low at 4527.86 which is nearly the same place as Minor wave 4’s current low of 4527.56.
The following is a new subset of data which is based on previous Minor wave 4s inside of Intermediate wave 5s inside of Primary wave Cs. Based on this data, the quartile retracements are 8.24%, 37.2%, and 40.98%. Models agree the most at 18 or 3 hours long. Second most agreement is also tied at 4 or 5 hours.
Now, lets revisit the historical data based on daily bars and waves. The following was written in my most recent analysis, “Based on models ending in C54, strongest model agreement would have Minor wave 4 only last one day. Second model agreement is tied at 2 or 3 trading days. A far fourth agreement is 4 days while a further fifth is at 7 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 28.23%, 37.305%, and 52.09%. Based on waves ending in 54, strongest model agreement is on Minor wave 4 lasting 2 trading days with second most agreement at 1 day and third at 3 days. Models significantly drop off afterward with 4 days in fourth and five days in fifth. The quartile retracement levels are 27.27%, 42.40%, and 57.21%.”
The low thus far was at hour 10 on an hourly chart and day 1 on a daily chart at 4527.56. A case can be made that this low represents the bottom of Minute wave A or the actual end of Minor wave 4. If we are still in Minor wave 4, Minute waves A down and B up have likely concluded and are depicted below on a 15 minute chart:
If the market remains in the final stages of Minor wave 4 downward, the market will likely move lower within the first few hours of trading on Monday. The 21st hour of Minor wave 4 concludes 120 minutes into trading a Monday. The low would likely occur before that time. The low would also likely occur beneath the currently achieved low of 4527.56. Based on all of the data, a low beneath 4500 remains unlikely. This scenario would also make the length a total of 3 trading days on the daily chart and inline with the projections from the daily set of historical data.
I plan to conduct another analysis on Minor wave 5 after the market closes on Monday, however, an early low on Monday followed by gains could drastically shrink the ability to forecast major upward movements for Minor wave 5 since the current projected top is around 4600. I will provide another Intermediate wave 5 forecast within the next day based on the new program to potentially best identify the market top on a more macro set of datapoints.
