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Elliottwaveretracement

Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W42/2024) // AlgoFyreThe market shows a bullish scenario with potential for an impulse wave up after a correction, possibly surpassing the all-time high post-election. However, two bearish scenarios suggest a major drop to 20K in the long term, highlighting significant downside risk. 🟢 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario 🔸 Leading Diagonal (Green) Complete : The green lines on the chart represent the completion of the leading diagonal, which is the first wave of a larger impulse (wave 1). Leading diagonals often occur in the first wave of a new trend, indicating that a bullish trend is beginning. This is particularly important because it sets the foundation for a stronger upward movement that could follow after a corrective phase. 🔸 Corrective Phase (Red ABC) : After completing the first wave, we are now expecting a corrective structure. The red lines represent a potential ABC correction, a typical 3-wave corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory. This correction could retrace some of the gains made in the leading diagonal, potentially finding support near key Fibonacci retracement levels (like the 0.25, 0.5, or 0.75 levels) drawn in orange on the chart. 🔸 Timing Around the US Election : The chart indicates that this ABC correction may take place leading into the US election, which is often a period of increased market uncertainty and volatility. It seems that the correction is expected to conclude before or around this event, setting the stage for the next major move. 🔸 Bullish Impulse (Wave 3) : After the correction, the chart projects a strong bullish impulse (the large green arrow), which would be the beginning of wave 3. In Elliott Wave theory, wave 3 is typically the most powerful and extended wave in an impulsive structure, often leading to significant gains. The breakout above previous highs around the 67,000-68,000 level (marked by the green wave 5 in the diagonal) would confirm the start of this impulsive wave, which could target much higher levels, possibly into the 70,000+ range. 🔸 Bullish Summary (TLDR): The leading diagonal in green (wave 1) suggests that a new bullish cycle is underway. We are currently expecting a 3-wave corrective move (ABC) before the next leg up. The correction could end around key Fibonacci levels, potentially coinciding with the US election. After the correction, a powerful wave 3 impulse is expected, likely driving prices significantly higher. 🔴 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario 🔸 Bigger ABC Correction : The market is in the midst of a larger corrective pattern. The current movement is within the B-wave of this ABC structure. 🔸 Flat Pattern for B-Wave : The B-wave is forming a flat correction, which typically indicates a sideways consolidation with a final leg up before a downward movement. 🔸 C-Wave to 52K Area : After completing the B-wave, we expect a C-wave to the downside, targeting around the 52K level. This drop represents the completion of the B-wave within the larger ABC pattern. 🔸 Larger C-Wave Up : Following this drop, the final C-wave to the upside is projected. While this wave could potentially retest or even exceed the all-time high (ATH), it's not guaranteed. The key idea is that a significant rally is expected after the corrective B-wave down. 🔸 Major Downtrend Next Year : After this anticipated rally, a substantial downtrend is expected in the following year, potentially driving the price down to 20K or lower. 🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): Completing a B-wave flat correction within a larger ABC structure. Expecting a C-wave down to around 52K before a potential larger rally. After the larger C-wave up, a significant decline is expected, leading to 20K or lower in the following year. 🔴 Mid-Term Outlook (Next Few Months to Year) - Bearish Scenario 🔸 Leading Diagonal Completed (Red) : The red structure shows the formation of a large leading diagonal to the downside, suggesting that a strong downtrend has already been established. 🔸 Corrective ABC (Green) : After the diagonal, a corrective ABC pattern has formed. This correction has reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a common level for corrections to complete before resuming the primary trend. 🔸 Major Move to the Downside : Following the completion of this corrective phase, the chart is signaling the beginning of a significant bearish move, potentially leading to a price target near the 20K level. This aligns with the broader bearish outlook. 🔸 Bearish Summary (TLDR): Finished a leading diagonal to the downside, followed by a corrective ABC pattern. Correction reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Expecting a major bearish move from this point, with a potential target of 20K. 🔶 Key Takeaway The market presents both bullish and bearish possibilities. The bullish scenario suggests that after a leading diagonal (wave 1) completes, a short-term ABC correction will occur, followed by a powerful wave 3 impulse to the upside, potentially pushing prices beyond the all-time high after the US election. On the other hand, the bearish scenarios indicate a significant downturn: one expects a C-wave drop to around 52K before a larger rally, followed by a steep decline to 20K or lower next year, while the other points to a completed leading diagonal with a corrective ABC reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci level, signaling the start of a major move down to 20K. Despite the potential short-term upside, both bearish scenarios ultimately point to a substantial long-term decline.
by AlgoFyre
XAUUSD: Final Wave Completion – What’s Next?XAUUSD has formed a corrective pattern on the hourly chart, offering a potential breakout setup. The correction has spanned over two weeks, during which the price has frequently crossed the EMAs (50/100/200 ) on the hourly timeframe. Meanwhile, the 20 EMA has consistently acted as solid support on the daily timeframe. The pair has completed its final wave 5 of wave (C) at 2604 and has since started to rise sharply. Currently, XAUUSD faces a strong resistance level at 2670 , which marks the high of wave (B). If the price breaks above 2670 , traders can target the following levels: 2685 - 2715 - 2735 +. If the breakout fails, the correction may continue, as 2670 is the key hurdle for the bulls to overcome. Further updates will follow soon.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Trade-Technique
1
GOLD → False break of range support led to a reboundFX:XAUUSD reaches the liquidity zone of 2370, forming a false breakdown, confirms the presence of a strong range boundary. The market may move into a sideways trend. Fundamentally, the situation is still complicated. The U.S. regulators are trying to change the market's mind on the recession issue, trying to keep the market calm. The question of aggressive actions of regulators is still open. At the moment everyone is watching the actions in the Middle East, as the activity on the background of the war already unleashed can again affect the price of gold. Markets continue to estimate almost 90% probability of a 50 basis points cut in US interest rates in September. Let me remind you that it is not the fact of reduction that matters, but the hints and comments of regulators. At this time, gold is forming a global range of 2480 - 2370. Resistance levels: 2420 Support levels: 2400 Technically, gold may go into a consolidation phase, but in the future it is worth watching the resistance at 2420. As a pre-breakout consolidation or a quick retest may lead to a breakout attempt and growth Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
5
Wave 2 of 5 in progress - where does wave 3 begin? The Elliott wave channel guidelines are some of the handiest tools in the box. Here the final channel (2-4) is well broken, indicating the impulse is done and wave 2 is in progress, further evidenced in the break of the base channel below. Ideally this decline finds the red channel of the larger degree impulse of which this is proposed to be wave 2 of 5. Another guideline that fits in with the channels is the 'right look' - such a wave 2 would ideally make a reactionary wave advance into around that green level before dropping to tag the red channel at the 50-61.8% retracement level (perhaps tightened to about 61,233-61,000 USD). However it gets there though, this level would present a perfect buy setup for the proposed move towards $120K. As a swing trader, this trade in a vacuum makes me nervous by $56,587.65, abandoning the trade below 53,534.55 and provisionally targeting the $125k area. As there will usually be chances to increase the position size on pull-backs (imagine wave 2 of 3 for example), the first entry doesn't need to be the whole allocation.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by JCore7
GBPUSD → The rallies in GBP continue. Falling to 1.26?FX:GBPUSD on Friday updates the local low and confirms the bearish nature of the market. Since the opening session traders have been trying to buy back some of the decline and are heading towards the liquidity zone, from which bears may intensify selling Traders increased selling in GBP to a 16-month high amid expectations that the Central Bank of England will start cutting interest rates sooner than the US Fed. Investors are expecting the GDP of both countries (UK and US) on Wednesday and Thursday. This will help to form a medium-term strategy. Technically, price is heading towards the 1.270 zone of interest (psychological area), which previously played the underlying consolidation support. A retest and capture of the liquids could change the imbalance in the market, which could lead to an intensified sell-off from the said area Resistance levels: 1.27, 1.275 Support levels: 1.26, 1.257 The dollar index looks stronger than the pound sterling, which continues to weaken due to fundamental reasons. The Feds are not yet ready to take premature action, which generally determines a negative fundamental background for the currency pair. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
13
EURUSD → A false breakout leads to a correction. 1.080?FX:EURUSD is forming a correction after a false breakdown. The movement is formed after updating the local highs. The fundamental background for the currency pair is positive. The false breakout occurs against the resistance at 1.0885, as well as the rising line limiting the trend. If the fundamental background persists, in this case the correction will not last long and the global bullish movement may start to recover. On H1 it is worth paying attention to the support: 1,080 (liquidity area), which the price may test. This boundary may become the lower zone of the new range, which may confirm the change of trend. Support levels: 1.080, 1.0766, 1.0736 Resistance levels: 1.0884, 1.0942 Technically, a false breakdown of resistance and corrective downward movement is forming. Today there is no strong news and movements can be calm. Regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
4
GOLD → Consolidation continues. What's next, 2400 or 2200?FX:XAUUSD is testing the resistance of the range, the market maker is capturing liquidity around 2328 and is not ready to let the price go yet. Trading inside 2328 - 2300 continues. On Sunday we discussed the bullish trend, correction and the fifth wave that may get its start after the end of the correction. Yesterday price tried to form a confirmation of the end of the correction, but 2328 was not broken and trading in the correction phase continues. A retest of the range support is possible before a further rise to resistance. There are two risk areas that will affect the medium term: Breakout of 2328 and consolidation above the level will confirm the readiness to go up to 2382. A break of 2300 and consolidation below the level will confirm the readiness to go down to 2267 Resistance levels: 2328, 2344, 2352 Support levels: 2305, 2300, 2295 Trading within the consolidation range continues while the dollar is also standing still. At the moment it is worth considering trading inside the range, and when breaking through one or another boundary to take the principles of trading in the breakdown. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
15
GOLD → Correction may continue ↓ before further growth ↑FX:XAUUSD continues to form the phase of correction. The price stops in the zone of 0.236 fibo, but the candlestick setup on D1 is forming multidigit. The struggle between buyers and sellers for 2285 continues. Last week was fundamentally rich, but the market reaction is weak, sellers are actively selling out any buying activity. A pre-breakdown setup is forming around 2285, and if it is not broken, the correction will extend to 2222 (2195). The signal to the continuation of the fall will be the fixing of the price below 2285. But, with active participation of buyers, which may be caused by fundamental and geopolitical reasons, the market may break the structure: Break of resistance and price consolidation above 2320-2325. This will mean the end of correction with further continuation of growth and formation of the fifth wave, the target of which could be the area of 2450-2550. Resistance levels: 2320 - 2325, 2350. Support levels: 2305, 2295, 2285 The global trend is bullish, the local trend is bearish (correction). Take this into account when trading! It is necessary to wait for price confirmation, which will mean either the continuation of the correction or its end. Only then you can take some measures to open orders in one or the other direction TVC:DXY MCX:GOLD1! COMEX:GC1! CAPITALCOM:GOLD Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
NZDUSD → Correction to MA-200. The fall may continue FX:NZDUSD bounces and strengthens towards MA-200 and resistance of the current trend on H1 against the backdrop of the dollar index correction. On D1 the medium-term outlook is clear. There are no prerequisites for the change of the global trend and most likely the fall after the resistance retest may continue. The dollar also at the moment does not give signs of reversal and fall, respectively, the bearish medium-term outlook for the currency pair NZDUSD is still relevant. Resistance levels: MA-200, Channel Resistance, 0.6000. Support levels: 0.5940, 0.5875 The global trend coincides with the local trend and has a bearish direction. On H1 a correction is forming, which may be over soon, after which we should wait for a decline to 0.5875. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2
Gold Correction Due - before this week market closePEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD Following the principles of #ElliotWaves, when waves 1 and 3 form without any extension, then wave 5 tends to make approximately the same magnitude in the same amount of duration. Wave 1 - Magnitude - ~ $76+ in ~ 2 D and 17 hrs Wave 5 - Magnitude also made ~ $76+ (Short of 60 cents) in ~ 2D 11 hrs as of this post. In this scenario, when there was no extension in the impulse waves, the correction would be till 0.618 to .50 Fib Retracement Level 2226 - 2200 Range.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by MendiUser
3
TSLA Recovery to $4001D Chart From a technical viewpoint, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is setting up for a short-term recovery to the $200-210 range before another steep correction. Should significant support be met around the $100 range, a sharp recovery back to previous highs near $415 will be in sight. The following patterns are visible on the 1D chart: Impulse and Correction Waves Because the 1, 3, & 5 Impulse Waves were in the down direction, then according to Elliott Wave Theory, the Correction Waves (ABC) should see the beginning of a rally. Wave A will move opposite of Wave 5 and should lose momentum between $200-220 which are 50% & 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels respectively. Wave C would develop a double bottom setup that could propel TSLA back to $300. Head & Shoulders If the Elliott Waves do not prove valid then a H&S pattern is likely with a right shoulder peak meeting resistance between $200-220 before sending share prices back to a low of $100. I am less confident of this pattern as it appears a premature recovery is about to begin. The neckline rests around $150 but Money Flow Index is already in severely oversold territory and the On-Balance Volume has an overall positive slope. Double Bottom In the unlikely event that the H&S comes to fruition then I believe it will serve as the setup for a larger double bottom pattern. Stepping back for a better bird's eye view, the On-Balance Volume has a healthy positive slope and Money Flow Index is in oversold territory. However this pattern will take months to develop so it is too soon to begin loading up for this particular trade as a swing or day trader.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Shepherd_Investor
$PLTR ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS This analysis reflects my perspective on NYSE:PLTR through the lens of Elliott Wave theory. I acknowledge the potential for error and welcome any feedback or alternative viewpoints. After thorough analysis, it seems that NYSE:PLTR has concluded its impulsive phase and is now set for a significant downward movement. Currently navigating through sub wave C of wave 2 correction, it's anticipated to retrace to approximately the 0.618 retracement level, marked by the green rectangle, which serves as a pivotal point due to robust support. Although this projection isn't definitive and relies on typical wave 2 correction patterns, it provides a useful estimate for potential price movement.
PShort
by thekidtrader11
4
GOLD → Friday sales, price in sideways movement FOREXCOM:XAUUSD was ready to overcome the resistance of the 2062 range, but Friday's NFP, with sharply unexpected data of 353K ruined the temporary plans of buyers. The dollar is building strong momentum and continues its strengthening trend. pic: Long-term bullish trend. The price is trading at its maximum values On the 2-week timeframe we see a strong bullish trend, price is trading at its highs and is likely to continue to test the extensive resistance area for a breakout. The reason for this is the high interest in the world during the geopolitical instability, banking crisis, and the huge interest from the world Central Banks, which continue to buy the asset. Fundamentally, gold is no longer actively reacting to the conflicts in the Middle East, but investors continue to buy the metal as a safe haven. Last week Powell made it clear that they will cut the interest rate, but not in March, which disappointed investors a bit, but Friday's NFP, which was apparently bogus, formed a strong sell-off at the end of the week ( high NFP with high jobless claims... ). In the coming week, we should expect the FED chief to speak, as well as other members of the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims is worth paying attention to. pic: Sideways price movement in the gold market. Neutral position between bears and bulls Locally, on H1, gold is in the 2064-2016 range. Also, there is a strong support area at 2031 from below, after a false break of which the market is buying back the decline a bit. Technically, gold is strong and quite confidently can defend its positions on the background of the dollar growth, but on the background of panic and imbalance from the support, the Market Maker can form another long-squeeze relative to the lower levels. It is also worth paying attention to the fact that the price is still in the range. It is difficult to trade inside the range, so I advise you to look for strong levels or zones. Resistance levels: 2057, 2064, 2040 Support levels: 2031, 2020, 2016 OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
4