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7/20: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap For the first time in years, the market has seen two continuous trades without stop outs. Long 4420 on July 9th, with a trailing stop kicking me out last Friday at 4538 (trade 1, 113 points). Then this week, long 4533 on Monday, with trailing stop still going for 70 points, making these the best trades of 2023 by a very large margin. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed 🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline Negative reaction to Telsa and Netflix putting pressure on investor optimism after a solid start to earnings season. Key Structures The success of these trades were due to simple, widely accessible technical analysis: A 3 week ascending triangle which tested support last Wednesday, broke out Thursday, then ran to its measured move target. A structure based trailing stop system that kept me in the trade. Support Levels Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest) are 4588, 4532, 4493. Resistance Levels The large rising uptrend channel in white. This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support is currently 4370 and the most immediate resistance line is 4617 now (with 5000+ being the upper rail and ultimate long-term magnet as long as the channel is play). Trading Plan My plan is to hold my 25% runner from this morning as it has not clipped 4613-14 next target up yet for a profit take. I am more cautious with longs now, sizing them smaller, as we are up in a strong resistance zone and these “elevated” conditions are my absolute least favorite to trade, with little comparison. Wrap Up While this phase of the trend will end with a multi-week period of complex chop and correction, it is important to remain focused on the core big picture structures and levels that drive the broad trend, and provide context and orientation to the daily price action. These are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the levels in the below plan level to level, one move at a time. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/17: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week was a remarkable week, with the market dictating an exceptional, uninterrupted position from Sunday until late Friday. This steep uptrend was triggered by a perfect, 3-week ascending triangle, starting at 4420, with a 4485 breakout level and a 4575 target. This move was extreme and euphoric, with risks attached. The ability to draw lines, tune out noise, and stick to a disciplined trade management process was key in navigating this move. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Flat 🧐 Yields: Down slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World Headline Russia pulls out of Black Sea grain deal, wheat futures surge. Key Structures The major June/July resistance and the ascending triangle structure in purple are key structures to watch. The breakout point which is the zone between 4493 and 4476 is also crucial. The large rising uptrend channel in white, connecting the March lows and the May lows, is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels Supports are at: 4526 (major), 4515, 4500-4503, 4493-88 (major), 4476 (major), 4469, 4463 (major), 4453, 4448-44 (major), 4434-31 (major), 4424, 4414 (major), 4404-07, 4493 (major), 4387, 4383 (major), 4374, 4366, 4350-55 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at: 4537-43 (major), 4556, 4569-72, 4583-85 (major), 4593, 4600-05 (major), 4613, 4620-25 (major), 4637, 4645 (major), 4651, 4663, 4672 (major). Trading Plan In terms of trade plan, the first support cluster down on today is 4526 with 4515 just below and fail of this zone likely triggers a deeper sell back to 4493. A deep sell down to 4493-88 as well as 4476 would be levels to consider a direct bid. For those who do like risky trades, the 4583-85 levels as well as the 4600-05 levels would be spots to look for sell reactions. Wrap Up The week just ended saw one of the strongest trend moves in years. It is expected that the market may see tactical, possibly corrective action today. After an easy week of runners paying out, it will likely be back to level to level trading for a period. As always, the plan is to be purely reactive and let the price set back up again. No forecasting, no predicting. We could test that 4526, perhaps 4515 cluster, try a good bounce back to 4556 from here then do more consolidation/pullback. 4526 fails, we sell down to 4490s. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/14: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap This week was another successful one for classical technical analysis traders. The week's movements were driven by a simple, textbook ascending triangle structure, which I have been discussing since Friday. I took a long position from 4420, which is now up over 100 points. This entry point was chosen due to its support of the large triangle structure. The resistance was at 4480-90, and ES went parabolic on Wednesday post-CPI on the breakout of that structure. This strong run from 4420 has been characterized by rare price action, with ES not closing a single 4hr candle below its prior candle's low since Sunday overnight. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Up slightly 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World Headline China promises more stimulus and attempts to woo foreign investors. Key Structures 4478 and 4493: This represents the major June/July resistance and is the resistance of the ascending triangle structure. 4456: This back-tests where we broke out late Tuesday. 4440: This is support of the purple ascending triangle. The large rising uptrend channel in white: This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels The support levels for today are: 4540 (major), 4532, 4526-23 (major), 4510, 4497, 4493 (major), 4486, 4478 (major), 4461, 4456 (major), 4448, 4437-4442 (major), 4431, 4424, 4414 (major), 4402 (major), 4393, 4383 (major) Resistance Levels The resistance levels for today are: 4547 (major), 4559, 4571 (major), 4577-80 (major), 4595-4600 (major), 4613, 4620 (major), 4627, 4640-45 (major), 4655, 4680 (major) Trading Plan Today, I will likely not take any new entries unless we get a real sharp multi-level selloff to some buyable supports. The first support down from here is 4540. I'd prefer to see the 4526-23 level tested which has a marginally larger chance of holding for any bids. If we fail there, I'd definitely be interested in buying the triangle back-test which is currently the 4493 level. Wrap Up In summary, it's been an incredible leg up and I'll just be taking it light today and focused on protecting my profits. We are at risk now of a consolidation or corrective period. My loose lean is that ES could dip to 4523-26 lowest, perhaps consolidate more, then continue the leg up to 4559 then onto high 4570s ultimate target. If 4523 fails, we do the 4493 backtest. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/13: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In last week's newsletter, we highlighted the rally from 4420 to 4500+ as one of the biggest point moves of 2023. The market had built a classic ascending triangle pattern with 4420 support and 4490ish resistance. This week, the market dipped to 4420 support, ran to triangle resistance at 4490 before the CPI release, and then broke out yesterday, squeezing the market. The breakout led to a multi-week chart pattern, indicating higher targets for the future. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down slightly 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Up World Headline Falling inflation spurs global rally. Key Structures The major structures to watch include the ascending triangle pattern with 4420 support and 4490ish resistance. We have already seen a breakout from this pattern. The next important structure is the large rising uptrend channel connecting the March lows and May lows. The support is currently at 4350 and resistance at 4575. Support Levels 4506, 4494, 4479, 4464, 4448-50, 4441, 4432, 4424, 4416, 4400-4405, 4393, 4380-82, 4369, 4345-50, 4337, 4326, 4317, 4305, and 4290 Resistance Levels 4520-25, 4534, 4543-45, 4565, 4570-75, 4585, 4592, 4601-03, 4615, 4635, and 4649 Trading Plan Today, the bull case is in play above the breakout. If we see any dips, 4479 would be the lowest point for bulls. As long as we are above the ascending triangle breakout, the bull case could see us base between 4493 and 4525 before moving up to 4534, 4545, and then 4570-75. The bear case begins when the breakout fails. The first warning would be the failure of 4493. If we see a bounce here and deep acceptance of the level, 4490 may be a spot to try for the scalp down. Wrap Up We have seen a significant breakout and now the market needs to defend this breakout. Although we have rallied straight from 4420 with only tight sideways consolidations, it wouldn't be surprising to see the market build a base between 4520 and 4494. If the market remains strong, we may not even lose 4506. However, if we fall below 4493, we may see a sell-off. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq - The Great Bear TrapIn recent analysis on the state of the markets, I note that the notion that we're "in a bull market" is actually really dangerous, and how, if you really want to see healthy markets into the future, you don't want to see a new all time high print yet, because we're just too far over the trend: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal Moreover, Q2 just finished strong, and with a new quarter, comes a new deployment of the algorithms. The infamous "JPM Collar" is something I discussed in a recent post: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Namely that I believe it forecasts a serious correction in the markets. But at the same time, it has until September to even start, really. And it's dangerous to be long right now because the VIX is so low and we've been in a bullish impulse inside of bearish market conditions for so long, which I note below VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude You can see the first manifestation of this principle has begun in both the VIX, and the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF: You might look at that and think "lol it gave all its gains back" but this is actually what you want to see if it's going to run a bit. I also have open calls for Tesla, which are short term, albeit significantly, bearish. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? And an open call on Netflix where I actually believe it will retrace to the $170s during the next major correction. Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives So where we're at with Nasdaq futures is that it made lower highs while the SPX made higher highs: The divergence is noise for the short term, but if you ask me, it means that in the long term, if we see a dump, and then a bounce, that Nasdaq will actually take out the high while SPX will be a laggard. What Friday's price action showed is that both SPX and Nasdaq have begun to dump. If you ask me, this is because before we can go higher, we must go lower. Sells have to be matched with buys and buys have to be matched with sells, after all. And at this point, we haven't seen any downside in the markets since March. It's too extreme. Two important areas of note is we have the daily pivot around 14,800 and the gap around 14,500. Both of these are places that I expect to see attempts at bounces that will not come to fruition. Because you need to give people a chance to buy the dip and then for them to get stopped out. I believe that the reason things will dump, and they may dump violently, and fast, is to crank the VIX and have all the permabears finally see their "opportunity" emerge to get short for "the crash." Only for markets to bounce through the end of August while everyone with money is at the sea side and VIX dies a slow death back to a 9-handle while volatility gets sold off for free money again. By then, nobody will want to be short anymore. Everyone will have capitulated. Then the fireworks can start, and early bears will miss the move, much to their consternation. So, I believe that Nasdaq and tech stocks give the opportunity to short through the next few weeks. On Wednesday, we have CPI, which has not mattered in months, but may matter a lot now while the markets pretend to care about whether the Fed hikes rates again. Then we have FOMC on July 25 and a Nasdaq 100 "rebalance" on the 24th. A recovery through the end of July and all the way through the end of August is a very likely scenario. Until then, I believe we will see violent and significant downside, and it finally gives an opportunity trade puts and bear ETFs until you see really significant bullish movement in price at key levels, and then look for longs. But the next time it's time to go long, it's only a scalp. After Q3, the remainder of 2023 and the early part of 2024 is likely to be quite dangerous. There are more important things in life than making money. Make sure you take good care of yourselves and your family and friends. Make sure you make up for your regrets as soon as possible, lest you find yourself with no further chances to set right what was set wrong.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
7/11: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week, ES experienced a deep late-day flush from the 4467-73 target area, landing at the 4420 level. Despite a 30-point rally, ES has largely remained stationary since late June. This period of range trading, between 4420-4490, is likely to continue for some time, providing a level-to-level day trader environment. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up strongly 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headline The Nasdaq 100 index will be rebalanced to reduce the dominance of the largest mega-cap stocks within it. The new weighting will be announced on July 14, taking effect for pre-market trading on July 24. Sweden will likely be admitted to NATO today at their annual summit. Asian equities higher as China announces loan relief for it’s troubled real estate sector. Key Structures The price action since Friday has been volatile, with a squeeze from 4430 to 4470s late Friday afternoon, followed by a rapid sell-off down to 4011, and then a rally back to 4440s. The big picture structures and levels to watch for now are 4485-95, 4460, 4420, 4382, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. Support Levels Supports are at: 4432-35 (major), 4423, 4418 (major), 4407, 4393 (major), 4380-83 (major), 4365 (major), 4350, 4344, 4328-33 (major) 4315-20 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4442 (major), 4451, 4461 (Major), 4468, 4484 (major), 4493 (major), 4511 (major), 4520, 4530-33 (major), 4543, 4553 (Major), 4575-4580 (major), 4593, 4605 (major) Trading Plan The bull case would involve continued base building in the 4420-40 range, then a breakout targeting 4461. The bear case would begin with the fail of 4418, followed by a period of acceptance and then a short after perhaps 4415. Wrap Up In summary, ES is currently in a basing period. As long as 4418 holds, we can expect continued basing in the 4420-40 range and then a breakout to 4461. However, a fail of 4418 would signal a bearish turn. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
7/10: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Last week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. We saw a fantastic continuation off the 4420 level last Friday. As predicted, we based under 4450 all morning, then ran to the 4467-72 target, then dipped. We broke out 4420 last week, rallied, then backtested last week. However, it's not quite "all clear" for new highs yet. The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World Headline Chinese inflation falls flat. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels being watched now include the 4485-93 resistance zone, the 4468 zone which triggered the selloff on Thursday, the 4420-25 breakout origin point, and the 4377-82 level. The large rising uptrend channel in white is the primary medium term channel with support currently at 4325. Support Levels Supports are: 4463, 4450 (Major), 4441 (major), 4433, 4420 (major), 4407, 4403-07 (major), 4392, 4378-82 (major), 4369, 4358, 4345 (major), 4337, 4325 (major), 4317, 4300-05 (major), 4280-85 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4467 (major), 4480-85 (major), 4493 (major), 4503-05, 4518, 4527-30 (major), 4540, 4550 (major), 4558, 4570-75 (major), 4585, 4600-05 (major), 4620 (major), 4630, 4641 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to watch the first supports down at 4449 and 4443. If we sell deeper, the 4420 level will be watched again. If we fail there we likely get a hard sell and I'll be considering short down to 4380. The bull case today is fully in play above 4420. The bear case would begin on the fail of 4420. Wrap Up In summary, we are in range trading now 4420-4490 and may stay here for many days or even weeks. This will be a level to level day traders environment, and next to impossible to predict. My loose lean is we can backtest 4450 or ideally 4443, then try another push to 4467 then ultimately beyond. If 4420 fails, I am short. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
ES Futures Primary AnalysisI'll keep this brief. The area on the chart where purple 5 resides best counts as a 3-wave structure. Therefore, in my primary analysis, I am counting this as an irregular b wave that made a slightly higher high and now we should be heading into the 4370 area for our black c wave of 4. I have a purple alternative 5 on the chart because there is a chance of wave 5 truncation...but that is only confirmed with a breach of 4260. If my primary analysis is correct, our black wave 5 should conclude in the area of 4519-4530. Therefore we await more price action. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
7/7: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Yesterday brought about the biggest dip in ES since April 23rd, which was then promptly bought up. A three-day flag pattern with 4464 support failed, triggering the first short in over a week. The selloff ended at the 4420-25 zone, which was the breakout origin point last Thursday. This represented a fantastic buy opportunity and the low of the day. Key Structures Several core big picture structures and levels were highlighted. The 4467-74 zone is the support of the multi-day bull flag. For bulls to regain full control, they must reclaim this zone. The 4420-25 zone is the breakout origin point and started the most recent 70 point squeeze higher. The 4377-82 level is the back-test of the perfect green channel structure connecting the February and December highs. If this fails, it would be the 2nd major support loss. The large rising uptrend channel in white connects the March lows and the May lows and is the primary medium term channel. Support Levels Supports are: 4441, 4430-31, 4420-24 (major), 4413 (major), 4402, 4394, 4378-82 (major) 4370, 4359, 4350-45 (major), 4338, 4328 (major), 4317-22 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4451 (major), 4462, 4467-73 (major), 4480 (major), 4487 (major), 4493, 4500-4503 (major), 4514, 4521 (major), 4532 (major), 4537, 4545 (major). Trading Plan The plan for today is to continue defending the 4420 level, which keeps a new leg up in play. If the 4420 level is tested again, it is likely still a strong buy. The bear case begins on the failure of 4420. In order to re-establish the move up and put bulls back in control, ES needs to reenter the structure that caused yesterday's selloff at 4467-73. The bull case is in play as long as the 4420 backtest keeps holding. Wrap Up Yesterday was an example of the power of simple technical analysis. The key task for bulls from here will be to continue defending 4420, which keeps a new leg up in play. The bull case is in play as long as the 4420 backtest keeps holding. If 4420 fails, we take another big leg down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
06072023 - #SPXSPX was rather weak, though NDX rallied, DJIA sold off, thus SPX was somewhere in between. It dipped down to the 4431 or so price, did rally back up to PZ but that strong PZ held any further rallies, before it came down again on FOMC meeting minutes. The daily candle for SPX is somewhat bearish; could see a retest of the lows. Price opened within the PZ but had came off it and is now nearing the BZ. TBH, if market is to go down further, I would prefer a move up first, to re-test and get rejected within yesterday's candle for further down but now, price is moving down first. 4433 would likely be a level of focus, as it is a support level and also where yesterday's low is. If Europe opens near that 4433 level with bullish divergence, would like to look for a possible long to 4445-47 and even 4459. But if 4459 trades today, will look for shorts down to 4445.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
Weekly Update: Tracking a Top in the SP500 FuturesIn mid-June the SPX Futures hit a high of 4493.75. Let’s examine the data points, the characteristics of the subsequent price action, and attempt to see if the SPX Futures Market topped at 4493.75. Since futures bottomed in October of 2022 at 3502, price advanced for 8 months so far has appreciated by 28.3%. With market analysts, money and asset managers, and financial news reporters all weighing in on whether we’re in a new bull market or not, let’s see if there is more of a quantitative method to gain insight into the answer to that question. I will state unequivocally, that until price breaches 3502, there is nothing confirming that the market did NOT bottom in October. Comparatively, until price breaches 4808.25, the all-time highs of 2022, we’re not confirmed the longer term trend is bullish. Objectively, the truth is price is digesting previous gains off the Covid-19 lows of 2020. That is all we can say definitely. However, much like an investigator trying to solve a crime, there are clues that can point us in the direction of a reasonable conclusion. To the degree those probabilities favor one direction or the other, from there we can begin to devise a trading strategy. Counter-Trend Price Action Having topped at 4808.25 in January of 2022 price declined approximately 27% in 10 Months and bounced in from 3502. Since then, our recent high of 4493.75 came into the area of between the .618% and the .786% retracement level. Actually, closer to the .786% having exceeded the .618%. This length of price retracement more than fulfills a standard retracement for counter price action. However, this data point alone, does not confirm the counter trend rally has concluded and the previous trend down will resume. Additionally, the entire pattern off the October lows resembles the kind of corrective price action we would expect as it is very overlapping in nature. Only towards the end of the pattern did price become impulsive, and that is easily attributed to a c-wave. The counter trend price action by itself is not conclusive evidence that a top has been struck. However, it supports that case more so, than invalidates it. MACD divergences The interesting thing about the move off the October lows is MACD is the entire advance occurred on negative divergence. I’ve written about this before and this also supports the price action as corrective. This was not a strong rally in terms of what normally is associated with Bull Market advances. In summary and based on the price action as of today, I would have to say that odds favor the SPX Futures topped mid-June. Although we have no definitive proof, like an impulsive pattern to track to the downside, that may soon enough reveal itself. Based on the odds favoring a top to the price action off the October bottom resembling a corrective retracement of a downside trend, I would expect for price to ultimately breach the October lows of 3502 and head closer towards the 3,000 level sometime in the first half of 2024.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
19
From Inflation Figures to a Potential Bull TrapHello everybody! Today we will get the release of the inflation numbers, so I would like to give you a solid update! First of all, we are observing a gradual shift from bearish to bullish attitudes, particularly as the SPX is reaching the 4350-4400 mark, a target I previously highlighted multiple times on both Tradingview and Twitter. However, we must remain aware that the market could further extend up to 4450-4500 before peaking. For SPX the 4350-4400 zone was a key breakdown zone that was never retested, an FVG was formed which has now been filled. The NDX actually had some major gaps in this area, that have also been filled. The SPX is on the brink of becoming severely overbought at this juncture, while the NDX is clearly extremely overbought on the weekly timeframe. Whenever the Nasdaq 100 has gotten this overbought over the last few years, we have seen significant corrections follow. Also testing or going above the weekly and monthly R3 Fibonacci pivots is a sign that the market is at resistance and getting oversold on shorter timeframes too. The Russell 3000 is close to hitting a key resistance level, which is just a mere 2% away. While these indices could be close to a top, others, like CN50, DAX, Nikkei, and Russell 2000, indicate more upside. So, what's my projection for the near future? I foresee a final upward movement in stocks in the next two days. The reason for this prediction is the possibility of inflation coming in below expectations and a potential pause from the Fed without an interest hike. These circumstances could lead to a 2-3% market rally before a final short squeeze or bull trap. Even though the present market movement appears sustainable, with the rally seeming robust despite the market potentially being overbought and hitting key levels, I believe it may be time to consider taking profits, especially if we witness a significant move higher in the next 1-2 days. Inflation numbers are scheduled to be released today (or tomorrow), with expectations hovering around 4.1%. However, I expect the figure to be between 3.9-4%, as inflation is on a declining trend. This decline in inflation, coupled with a slowing housing market and rising recession probabilities, could have profound implications for the market. We've observed oil, wheat, and palladium prices dropping while copper remains flat or slightly down on the commodities front. I speculate that this might be the onset of deflation, possibly heralding the final disinflationary pressures.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
ES/NQ Weekly Analisys Weekly Analysis June 20 - June 23, 2023 During the previous week, NQ entered the zone of the daily Order Block (OB) and came close to testing the Mean threshold of that OB. It also entered the Monthly BB-. Therefore, this week, I anticipate a retracement to the 4-hour OB level between 15188.00 and 15094. For an ideal scenario, I would like to see a bounce from the range of 15186.75 to 15142.50, targeting the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB at 15534.00. It's also worth monitoring the Critical Level of the Monthly Break Block at 15722.75, although it may not be reached this week. To recap the structure: Consolidation, followed by Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal. Hence, my retracement level before the Order Block is set at 15186.75. Inside that zone, there are 15-minute BB+, as well as 15-minute FVG and 1-hour FVG. If the retracement fails to hold at the OB level, we should anticipate a reversal phase where it breaks 15066 and drops further, ideally reaching the Daily SIBI level between 14963 and 14866.75. The same analysis applies to ES: ES also entered the zone of the Daily OB (4615.00-4486.25), which aligns with the Monthly BB-. Remembering the structure: Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal. For ES, my retracement level is set at 4431.75 to 4423.25. The 4-hour OB is located at 4419 to 4404.50, with 15-minute FVG and BB+ within this range as well. If the 4-hour OB fails to hold, we can expect a Reversal Phase, leading to a test of the SSL at 4393.75. The Daily SIBI is found at 4381.75 to 4369.50. However, a bounce from the Retracement Area should fill the Weekly SIBI at 4506.25. Additionally, there is a Daily Breakaway Gap to consider. Key levels to watch are 4524.00 and 4531.25, which correspond to the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB.
CME_MINI:NQU2023
by LumiTraders