The market is technically broken. Today's sell off on volume did some much needed damage. It was good to see this. The market needs a pullback. We don't think we are done to the downside. However we are expecting a bounce at these levels. We will watch it closely Friday. WE WILL NOT establish any positions on Friday on the Indexes. We will wait for Monday....
The ultimate oscilator has made a notable divergence and looks to be breaking to the downside of the triangle it has formed. Slow stochastics has a downside bias look to it imo. I am not planning to sell at friday's lows, although would look for observed resistance on rallies to sell the es. I believe the es & spx are in a sell the rallies mode at the moment....
Price seems to making a very rare pattern on the ES Mini, where price action takes the shape of a shoe that is trying to kick prices higher. Similar to kicking the can down the road. Upside targets are T1 2152.25 and T2 2181.50 When this rare pattern forms, price usually is super choppy with no support or resistance holding from the top of the shoe to the bottom...
(Disclaimer: I have posted several short ideas on ES/SPY/SPX since the start of the year - I have played some of them for quick profits, also have gotten burned a couple times; it's safe to conclude that so far, the bullish trend hasn't been broken, but hasn't accelerated either. And even if the S&P 500 just made a new closing high today, it's still stuck in the...
Simplicity is bliss. Buy when price comes down to support. Take profit at resistance. Three levels of both support and resistance for each level of risk taker. Note the change in color where resistance became support and where support became resistance. No MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci, Ichimoku clouds. Just old school support and resistance.
(THIS IS THE RIGHT ONE - THE OTHER ONE DOESN'T HAVE OBV OR SPY TARGETS. SORRY!) Sticking with the bearish case for US Equities I've made for most of 2015, I'm currently selling short a pretty significant position in SPY versus a long basket of Equities and bonds from the rest of the world. My rationale: 1. US Equities are still rich versus rest-of-world stocks...
With ATR on Friday being close to a low, and with fridays candle being an inside candle, I am going to place a bracket trade 3 ticks on either side of the high and low of Fridays candle. At the same time I am anticipating the ATR to expand.
Daily Oversold, If the Double is not violated, and confirms. Watch for the reversal, that might take the ES to test the next TL resistance. The Double bottom target would be a good place to hold on with tight stop. Provided the DB holds and confirms..
$SPY average trade size picked up in wks 2 & 3 of February leading to weakening in the S&P 500. Now churning between $213.40 resistance & $207 - 208 support. I would expect much churn back and forth ahead of FED rate (possible tightening) announcements. Likely distribution for many months up here.
$ES_F still above support with churn and holding. Rollover is coming. Pro positioning will be key. #2 Excess supply sig on 2015.02.25. Major macro econ events (FED rates) coming that will affect equities.
The DAX has had a huge rally of 36.51% from the October low, 22.55% in 2015 and 11.46% from the ECB's announcment of euro style QE. This is a huge rally that could enter some resistance with the start of the ECB's QE starting in March. next week the ECB meets on the 5th and could create a news reversal. IMO this current rally since the ECB announced QE could be...
I'm not implying the spx rally is over or a top is in. But looking at the channel the spx has been trading in since 2011 lows, there is not much room to the upside at the moment and believe by observation there is more room for the spx to pullback. My plan is to sell the hwb from highs to lows as long as it acts as resistance with a tight stop. Last week was the...
This is clearly a contrarian, and potentially very painful trade. I'd say is best to play it with options - implied vol is at the year's lows and you will have limited downside on the position. But for those trading cash SPY, like me at the moment, here's my rationale for a short: Technicals: - We are close to getting overbought (Daily RSI is hovering around the...
Despite covering our NQ position we will hold on to the ES for a our second target. We still like the 2120 area. Stops have been pulled tighter just in case this move becomes a head fake. Lesson: manage your trades and don't let a winner turn into a loser!
We are getting closer to our second target. We believe we will see it this week. Nothing has changed on the management of the trade. Stay tuned.
ES is still looking good. We have not changed anything with our stops. If we see a good move to the downside we will adjust stops but we are still looking for the 2120 area for the next target.
Longs triggered in the ES. Like the NQ first targets were hit on Friday. Next target for us in the 2120 area. This has potential of being a really good trade. Stay tuned.
Da bulls. We are long per our last post. We have hit out first target Friday and have pulled our stops up looking to the 4400 area for the next target. The third target will be open. Read past posts...if you were patient you were rewarded on this trade. Stay tuned