S&P 500 E-Mini Futures
S&P500 Seeking the 4H MA200 for buyersThe S&P500 index (SPX) got rejected at the top of the 2-month Channel Up that started on the April 19 bottom and is already below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a sign of weakness for the short-term and based on the previous two times it did so, it might be accelerated.
Technically, the market should seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support, which is what took place on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up on May 31. We are looking to turn bullish again close to the 4H MA200 and target 5650, which is not only at the top of the Channel Up but also below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous two Higher Highs got priced.
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OHLC Stat Mapping Cooks Every Day & Every Week and it won't stopOn ES OHLC STAT MAPPING Cooked as Always! Do you see that precision? that is hilarious and definetely not random... just checkout my profile and see how many examples I have there with this insane tool. forever grateful I discovered this tool.
S&P 500: One last ClimbWe see the S&P 500 primarily on the last few meters of the magenta wave (1). Although it is of course absolutely possible that we have already seen the high, the price is likely to rebound once more before it brings this movement to an end. Subsequently, we expect a medium-sized correction in the form of the magenta wave (2), which should extend to our same-colored Target Zone between 4851 and 4678 points.
ES Trade Plan, June 20thExcellent follow through from buyers. And this is charting 101. Tuesday here, I pshared that ES is bull flagging for rally to 5567, 5575, 5585-90. We just hit 85-90. All bonus now for buyers from here. As of now, 5575-76 (weak now), 5560-62 (weak) are supports. Buyers must hold above to keep 5595, 5610 in play . we sell if 5560 fails. CME_MINI:ES1!
ES analysis JuneteenthCME_MINI:ES1! NYSE is closed & ES closes at 1pm - no volume today, dont overtrade. Yesterday, ES was bull flagging to set up a push to 5564, 5575+. Patience paid & we hit 5564. Been basing here since. As of now: Lock in those gains here, hold runner and keep it a risk free day. 5560 is support. Keeps 5576-78, 5585+ in play. 5560 fails, dip to 5549
S&P500 targeting 5800 if this level breaks.The S&P500 index (SPX) recovered from April's correction and rebounded on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) during late May's consolidation, much faster than all previous corrective phases within the 1.5 year Channel Up pattern.
This has resulted in the price testing again the top of that pattern, first time since April 01. So far it has been there but failed to break it 3 days in a row, which is an accelerating bearish signal and as long as it fails to break upwards, we expect another test (at least) of the 1D MA50.
If it does break though, and since as mentioned this corrective phase has been faster and weaker than the previous, there are higher probabilities to do so, we expect a new (blue) short-term Channel Up to emerge. That would be similar to the previous 2 Bullish Legs of the long-term Channel Up, only this time it will break above it and take the index to a new dominant pattern.
In any case, our medium-term Target on that occasion wil be 5800, even though on the long-term, we can see at least a +25% rise from the April 19 bottom.
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ES1! - TIME TO LOOK FOR SHORT ENTRIES OPPORTUNITIES - WEEKLYThank you for the likes, shares and follows. Really appreciate!
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This is a zoome out from the latest analysis of the ES1! Mini S&P500 Market.
A little bit adjusted with some interesting points to consider.
in the upper side we potentially won't be surprised in proach futrue see the price rising to $5637.5.
It is time probably to think at holding long short positions as there are some potential lower price point interesting to consider:
- The red horizontal line range area
- And lower there the blue dashed horizontal line
next week candle could probably do the same as this week but in the short side.
Where is the price going and what is the upper side limit? We don't know, we can only make some assumptions based on the technical analysis of the chart.
The issue is that we see that some historicl correlations are not being respected anymore.
ES analysis for CPI day! New ATH Targets // Not financial adviceFor the past few days I've been saying CME_MINI:ES1! is stuck in a range between 5342-5372. After a final failed breakdown of it yesterday that triggered longs, buyers broke us out the range finally. Size down now before CPI…protect your capital. Wait for traps. 5396, 5408, 5421+ next in play for buyers. 5363 lowest must hold on any CPI dips, or we sell
SPY short hunt is back onI will set an alert at the low of the last two days. At that point of the days internals look soft I will take a beginner level starter put position. The intent is to risk a small amount of $ to try and catch a day trade that I even still want to hold by the end of the day.
Alert at 532.50
SPY still bullish, holding both the 1D MA50 and MA100.Last time we looked at SPY (May 01, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal following the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) bottom and we are already well into new All Time High territory:
As you can see, the price hit the top of the short-term (dotted) Channel Up and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This inability to break above the Channel Up, leads us to believe that it will continue to be the dominant pattern, instead of the long-term (blue) Channel Up, and will dictate the price action higher but only gradually.
Another test of the 1D MA100 is possible under those conditions that will allow for a smooth hit on our 555.00 long-term Target.
If however the dashed line holds, it is possible to see an even more aggressive Channel Up materializing, in which case we will move our Target even higher at 580.00, in order to represent a Bullish Leg similar to January - February 2024.
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ES New All Time High Targets & General OutlookAfter buyers broke us out yesterday, ES is now basing right off the uptrend channel sellers tried to leak us from June 3rd (5370). This is very typically after a trend leg/breakout, as after these play out, longs are risky (due to chasing), shorts are risky (against the trend), so this causes a very high chance of chop the day after. And that's exactly how today is playing out. This is very vital to understand, as MANY traders lose lots of money overtrading after the trend move happens, all because we naturally try to recreate missed opportunity. Don't. We are building a small flag now above 5363. 5375, 5390, 5403 are the next ATH targets whenever buyers are ready. If sellers want to backtest some supports, 5348 is 1st down, then 5342 CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MES1!
ES1! PM long opportunity using algorithmic levelsToday we'd seen beautiful reaction to algorithmic levels! +1/3 AWR acted as support after yesterday push above it and -1/3 ADR likewise! another confluence was D -M OHLC statistical mapping (tool) and H4 IFVG!
ADR is usually TRUE Support & Resistance! and most of the time we can use it within Higher Time Frame context. same goes with OHLC statistical mapping when we are bullish we use -manipulation! combining this with ADR/&AWR can be really helpfull!
NASDAQ INDEX (US100): To The Next Highs
One more instrument that we discussed on the today's live stream
is US100 Index.
This week, the market updated the all-time high, violating a key horizontal resistance.
With a very bullish fundamental data, the Index has a nice growth potential.
Next resistance - 19300
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S&P500 Short-term accumulation before strong rise.The S&P500 index (SPX) has turned sideways since practically May 16 and, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), is consolidating. Even though this consolidation is taking place at the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up (Fibonacci 0.0 - 0.236 range), it is similar in some way to the accumulation of April - May 2023 (also a little like November - December 2023), which was again supported by the 1D MA50.
As a result, as long as the price remains above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which provided the crucial Support on April 19 and started the recovery from the -6.65% decline, we expect a similar Channel Up to start when the accumulation ends. Our short-term Target is 5500 (top of 1.5 year Channel Up).
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Where is the SPX most likely headed in the coming yearsAlthough it's hard to predict what the stock market will do in the future, there is already a clear consensus on what is likely to happen.
In this chart, I have plotted most predictions from big investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to other investors like Michael Burry. I have also calculated the average of all the predictions and plotted it on the chart.
I think the most likely scenario is that we retest the lows of the Corona Virus Crisis, and then we trade sideways from there (illustrated with the red arrows). There is also the probability that we bounce off the 3000 SPX as the consensus estimates and then trade sideways from there (illustrated with blue arrows).
The main reason we might trade sideways for the coming years is because of a dilemma the Federal Reserve is currently facing. Having to fight a battle between high inflation caused by quantitative easing done during the Coronavirus Crisis, and fighting said inflation by raising interest rates which will make it harder to maintain its 30 Trillion dollars of debt obligations. Likely changing back and forth till there is a deleveraging of the whole system that will last at least 3 years. And since the markets are strongly correlated to what the fed does, this will be the most likely outcome.
Let me know your predictions and see if you agree more with the blue arrows or red arrows.