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Es1!long

The FOMC meeting, rising wedge, and VIX dropYesterday’s FOMC meeting ended as widely anticipated, with no change to monetary policy. During the press conference, the FED’s chairman reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and outlined a strong economy and tight labor market. Jerome Powell also described inflation as being on a downward trajectory and explained the need to stay attentive to inflation rates. In addition to that, he acknowledged the emergence of some negative effects of high interest rates on the economy. Markets reacted positively to Jerome Powell’s statements and rallied across the board. The SPX broke above $5,200 and established a new all-time high at $5,226. Simultaneously, the VIX experienced a significant drop that led to the distortion of its broadening structure on the daily chart. While the SPX remains over-extended above the upward-sloping channel, this drop could foreshadow the SPX’s move slightly higher, in the area between $5,300 and $5,350. Particular things to watch out for in the following days include the next developments with the VIX, the rejection/success of RSI breaking above 70 points (on the daily time frame), the support at $5,180, and the pattern resembling a rising wedge (on the 4-hour time frame). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the VIX’s daily graph. The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower trendline, distorting the structure with higher peaks and higher troughs. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the 4-hour chart of the SPX. Yellow dashed lines highlight the pattern resembling a rising wedge formation. Here are some of the most important statements from Jerome Powell’s speech: “Inflation has eased substantially while the labor market has remained strong, and that is very good news. But inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. We are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.” “Our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. As labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance.” “Activity in the housing sector was subdued over the past year, largely reflecting high mortgage rates. High interest rates also appear to have weighed on business fixed investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to slow from last year’s pace, with a median projection of 2.1 percent this year and 2 percent over the next two years.” “Over the past three months, payroll job gains averaged 265 thousand jobs per month. The unemployment rate has edged up but remains low, at 3.9 percent. Strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a continued strong pace of immigration” “We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. The economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks. We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer, if appropriate.” “We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent.” “ If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.9 percent at the end of 2025, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2026—still above the median longer-term funds rate.” “Turning to our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the Committee began reducing our portfolio.” Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly
ES1! - SPX - Could be Bullish Flip!CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:ES1! has broken resistance as Wall Street continues to monitor the situation surrounding the debt ceiling with hopes of a deal being reached. This breakout needs to hold via a retest or Bullish pullback for Stocks upside. If it's a fake out, look for potential shorts via LTF e.g. 4h CRYPTOCAP:BTC is like a tech stock and when it's coupled to the ES1! it moves with. Always having Plan A and Plan B scenarios so we can react once the markets provide an opportunity to execute our edge. If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by imr4nkh8n
The last attempt to increase the index before the correction.Today the S&P500 (ES1!) is trading at 4124. Yesterday, at the market opening, we saw the index rise and then further stabilize with high volatility, which I mentioned to you earlier. However, the volatility was higher than I expected, but that doesn’t change anything. Currently, the market has all the chances to continue a sharp upward surge, with the key level still being 4100. As I mentioned in my earlier post, the 4070 level remains relevant in the market, and many major players will try to increase their positions from this level. However, it is now perceived as a hypothesis in the market. Many speculators didn’t get a chance to open their positions yesterday and will try to do so from the 4157 level, just like a few days ago. Overall, the market remains positive, and a sharp index rise is possible, but this growth will be mainly based on positive news and will have a momentum-based nature. It will force speculators to abandon their plans and let the market grow.The last attempt to increase the index before the correction. What to expect today: Today, at the market opening, I expect the index to attempt stabilization and then drop to the 4115-4100 level. After that, the index will try to grow to the 4157 level, where there are a large number of orders from speculators looking to trade down to 4070. However, if their attempt to bring the index down to this level is broken, we will see a further sharp rise in the index to the 4232 level.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by kvatoo_FX
ES1! S&P 500 Futures to 4050 by 9/5There was a lot of call/buy momentum from mid-day to the bell. After hours is irrelevant, I foresee a drop in the 10-yr this week, oil appears to be trending down and I could see that fueling the equity markets. Biden also spoke tonight, he said "People" a lot. Not expecting it to make any influence on the market. Powell speaks end of the Month, my guess is the market overreacts at the end of Sept to push S&P500 to 4500. I am in SPX long here, stop loss setup and sell orders lined up to exit position between 1.5%-2.5% gain.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SHOOZCOIN
SP500 - Why I see a bounce longA LONG SCENARIO We see the RED numbers. They show the Pendulum Swings. Then we see the BLUE numbers, showing the minor Pivot Swings. For both I apply the 0 - 5 rule. This means, if 5 is reached, a turn is highly potential. The problem here is, that you don't know then the 5 is over. From the RED perspective, the market has not jet reached it's low. But from The BLUE swings, we can fairly expect a bounce, because we are at major support. I expect support from the A/R lines and the red Centerline where price currently fluctuates around. The green sliding-parallel is just a measure of overshoot in the angle of the A/R's. So, if price can fight it's way back above the red Centerline by a open and close, then this could be a good long signal. You may ask, why it didn't worked the last time? If you are familiar with the Medianline rules, then you know, that after a breakthrough, we can expect a bounce back to it. And that's exactly what happened. A bounce back to the Centerline. A SHORT SCENARIO Counter to the long idea stands the short idea, which could play out when we close below the red Centerline again. That would be very ugly and we had to expect price landing down at the red L-MLH or at least at the white Centerline (see the left weekly chart). However we play this, we have to play it with maximum controlled risk and follow our trade plan. Otherwise the market will rip off our face. Trade save
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
6
S&P500 turned bullish A good trader has to adopt for the change in trading environment. the so long correction in s&p500 index is in a wedge shaped and now broke-out with 5 waves. the 1st confirmation for bullishness (formation of wave''E'') is set as this BO (5waves)exceeded 62% of wave 'D'. wait for 2nd confirmation ,a pullback up to 38% of new wave 'A '(4455)this week (FED int rate will be a surprise),buy above 4640 (3rd confirmation) IF all set, the S&P500 rocket will climb to reach its targets (4930,5400)during this earning season
SP:SPXLong
by selvamB
1
S&P500: AmbitiousS&P500 is quite ambitious these days and has made it not only into the middle white zone between 4458 and 4509 points but also into the blue zone between 4510 and 4550 points directly above it. As matters stand, there is a 38% chance that the index could rise above the resistance at 4585 from this position. However, we rather expect S&P500 to initiate a countermovement first, which should lead into the lower white zone between 4406 and 4297 points. From there, the ascent can start in earnest and should proceed above 4418.75 points, above 4585 points and into the upper white zone between 4592 and 4643 points. We should not yet forget, though, the possibility that S&P500 could still fall below 4239 and even below 4101 points, which would result in a detour through the magenta zone between 4086 and 3980 points
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
2
S&P500: Grasshopper 🦗 No, we are not talking about the cocktail! S&P500 has been hopping up and down within the green zone between 4354 and 4253 points like a grasshopper in its grassy territory. At the moment, it is heading for the support line at 4354 points and could very well jump above it already. It could also stay in the patch of grass a little bit longer, though, and warm up its strong hind legs. For as soon as S&P500 has climbed above the support at 4354 points, we expect it to leap the resistance at 4585 from there. However, there is a 45% chance that S&P500 could crawl below the grassy zone and even below the support at 4212 points. In this case, it should make a detour through the magenta zone between 4126 and 4035 points first before skipping back up, initially above 4212 points, then above 4354 points and from there further upwards.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
S&P500: “Excellent…”“Excellent…”, we mutter slowly, steepling our fingertips while watching S&P500 move. In an exemplary manner, the index has finalized wave in turquoise in our turquoise target zone and is now in the middle of the countermovement we predicted. However, other than Mr. Burns from “The Simpsons”, whose trademark expression we borrow here, our next plan for the index is not evil. After it has completed the current countermovement with wave in turquoise within the lower turquoise strip between 4463 and 4426 points, we expect S&P500 to rise until the upper edge of the green zone between 4599 and 4675 points or even higher until the upper turquoise strip between 4683 and 4710 points above to finish wave in turquoise as well as wave 3 in green. Still, there is a 30% chance that S&P500 does not abide by our primary plan and makes a detour below 4230 points instead. In that case, the index should fall into the magenta zone between 4126 and 4035 points before rising up again. If it manages to get back above 4230 points, a long-term rise is imminent.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
ES1! - At the CL A Traders Live Is WhackyWonderful how price reacts in the world of a pitchfork trader §8-) The count (grey) 1-5 is NOT an Elliot Wave count. It's just a simple observation from the inventor of the pitchfork, Dr. Allen Andrews. At P5, price has a very high tendency to reverse the trend. In a Bear Market, it would mean a strong rebound, before continuing to the downside. Here price is approaching the potential P4, arriving at the orange centerline, the big Cahuna. How do we know if price turns at this CL? We don't know, until it's over. But that's OK. We know that we are in a pullback phase. So we have all the time to prepare to short again for a long ride down to P5. Can this fail? Sure, but very seldom. Now what? Relax, sit back, observe and watch how it unfolds. Or even better, you're long from the first or second re-touch at the red centerline §8-) Missed it? You'd better learn how to use that pitchfork tool. #WTpitchfork
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
1