ES FuturesThe 3 Star ✨ pattern on the Daily chart shows us the possibility of ending upward momentum and the beginning of a new downtrend.
Es1short
Cash Out & Enjoy the Trip The Market went through the $4165-$4200 resistance, as described in my previous analysis.
We are still in a bear market, however, the short-term directionality is bullish. The price will probably try to break the $4400-$4500 level.
The last four weeks have been incredibly strong. Money Flow Index (MFI) in overbought & Rising Wedge Formation.
From my point of view, this is a bull trap formation. It can use the momentum to get to the $4500, which I see unlikely, but not impossible. I used the last weeks to sell and get more liquidity. Now I am just watching the price action.
My Scenario:
From 15/08/2022 to 01/09/2022 -> Upside to $4200-$4300.
From 01/09/2022 to 31/12/2022 -> Continuation of the bear market / Target: $2,800-$3,500 in 12-18 months.
ES1! - S&P 500 Bear CountThe 0 to 5 count is very helpful in determining the current state of Swings & Pullbacks.
Any Swing or Pullback can be counted from 0 to 5.
When 5 is reached, it restarts from 0, again to 5, just in the opposite direction.
This count is most effective when you count the real Swings. By "real" I mean, if you follow these Rules:
Up-Swings:
A new high is CONFIRMED when the last low got broken
Down-Swing:
A new low is CONFIRMED when the last high got broken.
Here in the S&P 500 we see 3 different counts.
- grey = Pendulum Swings, the biggies
- yellow = Swing count withing the Pendulum Swings
- red = Pivot count within the yellow Swing count
Currently we are in a overall down-count.
Nr. 3 of the grey, Nr. 5 of the yellow and Nr. 3 of the red. So, a very good short opportunity.
Another short indication is the nice dobule-top at the white center line of the up-sloping pitchfork.
And finally the bear flag where you see the red 1-2 count.
If all this fails, then we see a much higher grey 2,4,5 high count.
Let's find out.
